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[Aaron Strife]

You have to take into account the political leanings of the districts. These arent statewide races. For example, that Iowa Special election was for the Senate seat that represents Davenport, the 2nd most liberal city in the state after Iowa City.

The Virginia districts were both GOP-leaning though.

If this is happening across the board then that's good news, even if it means most districts won't change hands. But think of something like GA-6, which would not have been on any list of 30 districts that would have needed to swing Democratic in 2016 to give us the House.

Clinton *only* losing Texas by 8 let Democrats sweep every office in Travis County, for example. Always room for downballot gains even if we don't take the big prize.

 

[Fenderputty]

Trump would do it tomorrow if he could.

Key word is "could"

The pilitical backlash and massive loss of life from a war like this would be huge. The humanitarian crisis after will haunt us for a decade or three.

 

[TiredofWinning]

A war on the Korean Peninsula, on top of what's going on in the Levant and North Africa would probably equate to the worst humanitarian crisis the world has ever seen.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Going to war with NK will bite him in the ass.

 

[Dan]

Hopefully this is all bluster and a ham-fisted negotiating method with China. Now, if Trump doesn't get to walk away claiming he got China to take some action on North Korea, I'd be worried sooner rather than later.

 

[kirblar]

The Virginia districts were both GOP-leaning though.

If this is happening across the board then that's good news, even if invariably it means most districts won't change hands.

The important thing is that if you get the % increase high enough across the board, it decimates gerrymandered districts, which are low-margin by design.

 

[Aaron Strife]

The important thing is that if you get the % increase high enough across the board, it decimates gerrymandered districts, which are low-margin by design.

Yeah, all their R+5 districts suddenly aren't safe with a D+10 electorate.

Related, Kansas' 4th early voting numbers:

Democrats: 4253 — 43.47% (-1.57%)
Republicans: 4407 — 45.04%
Unaffiliated: 1124 — 11.49%

2016:
Democrats: 65,127 — 23.25% (-29.05%)
Republicans: 146,485 — 52.30%
Unaffiliated: 68,486 — 24.45%

2016 Race:
Republican Mike Pompeo Incumbent 166,998 — 60.7%
Democratic Daniel Giroux 81,495 — 29.6%
Independent Miranda Allen 19,021 — 6.9%
Libertarian Gordon Bakken 7,737 — 2.8%

Will we win? Probably not! Would this bode well if it held in 2018 universally? Hell yeah!

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Yeah, all their R+5 districts suddenly aren't safe with a D+10 electorate.

Related, Kansas' 4th early voting numbers:

Democrats: 4253 — 43.47% (-1.57%)
Republicans: 4407 — 45.04%
Unaffiliated: 1124 — 11.49%

2016:
Democrats: 65,127 — 23.25% (-29.05%)
Republicans: 146,485 — 52.30%
Unaffiliated: 68,486 — 24.45%

2016 Race:
Republican Mike Pompeo Incumbent 166,998 — 60.7%
Democratic Daniel Giroux 81,495 — 29.6%
Independent Miranda Allen 19,021 — 6.9%
Libertarian Gordon Bakken 7,737 — 2.8%

Will we win? Probably not! Would this bode well if it held in 2018 universally? Hell yeah!

numbers would've been much better if we'd run Kander 43 imo

 

[Blader]

Act Blue: $112m donations processed in Q1 2017

um, holy shit?



Q1 13: $16,904,456
Q1 15: $26,903,206

The less reliant Dems are on big money donors, the better. Both Sanders and Trump very shrewdly and effectively used the puppet line of attack.

That reminds me, I need to chip in 20 bucks to Ossoff.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Advertisers pulled from OReilly.

You had me thinking they were only one vote shy of ending the filibuster. Had me concerned.

 

[smokeymicpot]

The three defense officials told BuzzFeed News they believe Assad may have launched Tuesday’s attack to test the president, particularly after members of his administration had indicated Assad could stay in power. Most notably, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Thursday that: "I think the status and the longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/nancyyouss...-about-face-on?utm_term=.siBYLVBYo#.ee5dXkPdY

Lovely

 

[whyamihere]

it's on.

@ForecasterEnten
The GA-06 trend line for the primary: Total Dem vs. Total GOP percentage of vote. Dead even right now...

 

[RustyNails]

You had me thinking they were only one vote shy of ending the filibuster. Had me concerned.

Lol. Thats when you know you've been on poligaf for too long.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

it's on.

It's about to get real.

 

[Teggy]

it's on.

What makes up the difference early on? Am I reading the chart wrong?

Edit: ah, it's polling, not voting.

Also, this is sort of good but sort of not good

Greg Bluestein‏ @bluestein

Democrat Jon @Ossoff campaign says 95% of donors in Ga-06 race came from out of state. #gapol

 

[TheAbsolution]

it's on.

I want to believe. I want to believe so bad.

 

[daedalius]

The three defense officials told BuzzFeed News they believe Assad may have launched Tuesday’s attack to test the president, particularly after members of his administration had indicated Assad could stay in power. Most notably, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Thursday that: "I think the status and the longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/nancyyouss...-about-face-on?utm_term=.siBYLVBYo#.ee5dXkPdY

Lovely

We're fucked

 

[Plinko]

That reminds me, I need to chip in 20 bucks to Ossoff.

http://www.myajc.com/news/state--re...rgia-special-election/MqGzLMjrzVRR8jE5YGs3rL/

The guy already has $2.1 million on hand, $8.4 million total.

 

[B-Dubs]

The three defense officials told BuzzFeed News they believe Assad may have launched Tuesday’s attack to test the president, particularly after members of his administration had indicated Assad could stay in power. Most notably, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Thursday that: "I think the status and the longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/nancyyouss...-about-face-on?utm_term=.siBYLVBYo#.ee5dXkPdY

Lovely

No duh he was testing Trump. Assad figures he can get away with anything now. Good job Trump. Good job Rust Belt whites suffering from economic​ anxiety.

 

[smokeymicpot]

We're fucked

Gets worse.

#BREAKING Trump tells Japan's Abe US will boost military capabilities against North Korea: White House

https://twitter.com/afp/status/849784746406105089

 

[daedalius]

Gets worse.

#BREAKING Trump tells Japan's Abe US will boost military capabilities against North Korea: White House

https://twitter.com/afp/status/849784746406105089

War with Syria and North Korea at the same time? Under trump, I wouldn't be surprised

 

[Surfinn]

Gets worse.

#BREAKING Trump tells Japan's Abe US will boost military capabilities against North Korea: White House

https://twitter.com/afp/status/849784746406105089

I don't get why this is suddenly a line that's been crossed. Hasn't North Korea been doing shit like this for years?

 

[B-Dubs]

War with Syria and North Korea at the same time? Under trump, I wouldn't be surprised

He's not going to do shit in Syria, let's be real. The darker the skin color the less Trump cares. God help us all if shit goes down in Africa.

 

[timetokill]

I don't get why this is suddenly a line that's been crossed. Hasn't North Korea been doing shit like this for years?

This is probably the first time Trump's heard about it

 

[sphagnum]

War with Syria and North Korea at the same time? Under trump, I wouldn't be surprised

Don't forget Iran!

 

[balladofwindfishes]

He probably thinks a war is his ticket to improving his approval. Someone likely put the bug in his ear that war time presidents don't generally lose re-election.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Since when is war the ticket to approval? Does Vietnam and Iraq ring any bells?

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Since when is war the ticket to approval? Does Vietnam and Iraq ring any bells?

2004 is the only time in the past thirty years a Republican won the popular vote

no incumbent wartime president has ever lost reelection

 

[Teggy]

Ignoring that many people voted for trump because they were sure he wouldn't get involved in any overseas conflicts.

 

[whyamihere]

2004 is the only time in the past thirty years a Republican won the popular vote

no incumbent wartime president has ever lost reelection

No person without government or military experience has ever won the presidency

 

[pigeon]

2004 is the only time in the past thirty years a Republican won the popular vote

no incumbent wartime president has ever lost reelection

Yeah, but in general we have faith that are presidents are sober, dedicated individuals who would not make the decision to go to war lightly. When we lose that faith presidents start tanking really fast.

I don't think Trump gets that benefit of the doubt.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

No person without government or military experience has ever won the presidency

Yeah, but in general we have faith that are presidents are sober, dedicated individuals who would not make the decision to go to war lightly. When we lose that faith presidents start tanking really fast.

I don't think Trump gets that benefit of the doubt.

oh I'm not saying Trump invading Iran is a good idea or anything

just explaining where the idea comes from

did you forget 1988 or was that on Earth 2.

if we wait a year and a half my statement will become true without any extra elections shhhh

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Since when is war the ticket to approval? Does Vietnam and Iraq ring any bells?

Well, Bush got re-elected on the back of the Iraq war. You want to start one at just the right time so that you're too far into it to change horses at election but not so far into it that it's obviously a disaster.

 

[NeoXChaos]

2004 is the only time in the past thirty years a Republican won the popular vote

no incumbent wartime president has ever lost reelection

did you forget 1988 or was that on Earth 2.

 

[pigeon]

oh I'm not saying Trump invading Iran is a good idea or anything

just explaining where the idea comes from

Oh, sure. I mean I think there are people in PoliGAF who have said they're worried Trump starts a war to get approval. But yeah, I think it wouldn't work.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

2004 is the only time in the past thirty years a Republican won the popular vote

no incumbent wartime president has ever lost reelection

This is just meaningless trivia ignoring the realities of the current situation.

 

[GutsOfThor]

Well, Bush got re-elected on the back of the Iraq war. You want to start one at just the right time so that you're too far into it to change horses at election but not so far into it that it's obviously a disaster.

Don't forget 9/11.

 

[jtb]

Desert Storm didn't get Bush re-elected. Rally around the flag definitely exists, but starting wars is really playing with fire

 

[RastaMentality]

People aren't terrified of North Korea so this would just be incredibly unpopular.

 

[B-Dubs]

Oh, sure. I mean I think there are people in PoliGAF who have said they're worried Trump starts a war to get approval. But yeah, I think it wouldn't work.

I don't think it would work either, but I wouldn't put it past him to try if his numbers slip enough.

 

[Sibylus]

I'll celebrate the changing of Bannon's chair when he takes one he can no longer influence anything from.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Nobody in this country cares enough about North Korea for a war with them to ever be popular.

But Trump doesn't know that. He likely believes they're the single biggest threat to this country, and because he believes so, it must mean 99% of the country also believes so, even if 99% of the country couldn't even point to North Korea on a map, let alone explain why they think NK is dangerous to a country that is like a million times bigger and half a planet away.

 

[sphagnum]

People aren't terrified of North Korea so this would just be incredibly unpopular.

Axis of Evil

Iran and North Korea are secretly sharing nuclear material with ISIS because they hate us for our freedoms

Boom

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Democrats filibuster the declaration of war. Trump's big push for an unprovoked, unwanted, unneeded war ends with a comedic fart noise.

 

[Dan]

Desert Storm didn't get Bush re-elected. Rally around the flag definitely exists, but starting wars is really playing with fire

Not that I think the country wants a war right now and wouldn't backfire on Trump's re-election chances, but I'd note that the Gulf War was basically over some 20 months before Bush's loss to Clinton. I don't think the "don't change horses in midstream" factor was in effect at all.

 

[B-Dubs]

Democrats filibuster the declaration of war. Trump's big push for an unprovoked, unwanted, unneeded war ends with a comedic fart noise.

He could just declare a police action and get around it. Or just send out the troops and dare Congress not to give them funding.

 

[neurosisxeno]

If you had any doubt people on /r/politics were fucking idiots. Complaining that the DNC won't help Quist in his special election with funding while completely ignoring the fact (or ignorant of the fact) that it's the DCCC who handles those and outside money will tank a candidate in Montana.

 

[jtb]

Not that I think the country wants a war right now and wouldn't backfire on Trump's re-election chances, but I'd note that the Gulf War was basically over some 20 months before Bush's loss to Clinton. I don't think the "don't change horses in midstream" factor was in effect at all.

True. Bush's mistake was getting out so damn quick. Should've milked those 90% approvals for all he could.

W learned from the best.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

He could just declare a police action and get around it. Or just send out the troops and dare Congress not to give them funding.

Just in time for midterms! I'm sure House GOP members are going to love that situation.

 

[sazzy]

I wonder if Russia is pulling the strings behind the scenes in escalating the Syria and North Korea situation simultaneously as something the US has to respond to.

Betting time: which country will the US go to war with first? Syria or NK?