VendettaRed07
Member
I've been saying all along.
Assume it will pass unless we know we have the numbers to vote against it.
We need 21 house GOP members to vote against it. We aren't even close to that..
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.
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Assume it will pass unless we know we have the numbers to vote against it.
We need 21 house GOP members to vote against it. We aren't even close to that..
Abinash117
Member
Democrats should really invest grooming more conservative-liberals, like those in European political parties, in the party . That is the one of the only way that they can get more seats and I doubt progressives and left-wing populists are going to work long term in those rural areas.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
How do you know this? If Ryan had the votes whipped we'd know it by now.
VendettaRed07
Member
I'm assuming that anyone who hasn't come out and vocally said "I will vote against it", will vote for it.
I've only really been able to count roughly a handful or so GOP members that have definitively put their hands on the Bible and said no I'm not voting.
If anyone has more id like to know though.
He's back on his meteoric rise!
From a purely academic point of view, I think the Freedom Caucus calculus is somewhat interesting.
They're all holding out for something more draconian (or, according to the CBO maybe not quite as more), because they're holding fast to ideology. However, I'm unclear how many of these FC members were actually elected on, and how many of their constituents actually hold, the same ideology once it's in actual legislation, rather than being elected simply for being against Obama at the time.
On the one hand, the FC members are asking for something that would hurt their constituents because they feel they were elected for their ideology, but I'm not sure that's the case so much as it was just right-leaning anti-Obama zealotry that moved them in. Voting with the ideology now might actually hurt them once the rubber meets the road in policy implementation.
They're all holding out for something more draconian (or, according to the CBO maybe not quite as more), because they're holding fast to ideology. However, I'm unclear how many of these FC members were actually elected on, and how many of their constituents actually hold, the same ideology once it's in actual legislation, rather than being elected simply for being against Obama at the time.
On the one hand, the FC members are asking for something that would hurt their constituents because they feel they were elected for their ideology, but I'm not sure that's the case so much as it was just right-leaning anti-Obama zealotry that moved them in. Voting with the ideology now might actually hurt them once the rubber meets the road in policy implementation.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
https://twitter.com/PeterSullivan4/status/844237598029692930
If the votes were there, Trump wouldn't be threatening House members in last minute meetings at the White House, and we'd see reports that Ryan has the votes.
metalslimer
Member
Republicans would be projecting confidence if they had the votes.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Even if they get the votes, this is dead in the Senate.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
I'm watching the gorsuch hearing
And this corwin asshole is saying that the nation is poorer because of hostility against religion in the public square.
And this corwin asshole is saying that the nation is poorer because of hostility against religion in the public square.
NihonTiger90
Member
The problem I'm seeing for the GOP is they have to play to two different groups here and try to thread the needle to get something to work.
I'm not talking about the Ryan wing vs. the Freedom Caucus ... it's the Senate vs. the House.
The House is split, indeed, and its worried for separate reasons (Ryan and friends know a failure essentially puts them in lame-duck status; Freedom Caucus knows that if they buckle to Ryan now, he has them by the balls from now on and their influence is diminished). But House districts are still by and large gerrymandered and without a Trump-led primary, many of them would likely be safe if it passes a House vote.
The Senate, meanwhile ... those who are Republicans from blue or purple states, or states where the ACA extended health insurance to millions that didn't have it before (and won't have it ever again if AHCA becomes law), have to be worried if this blows up. Not for 2018, but for 2020, when 22 of them will be up for re-election and a pissed off electorate wanting blood could send many of them packing if there's an especially strong wave election (Cory Gardner, Joni Ernst, Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and hell if it gets the coal miners angry enough, even McConnell could be vulnerable). They have more legitimate concerns about this going haywire and causing issues when they're at their most vulnerable in 2020, and they'd likely rather have a failed ACA to use as a cudgel in 2018 to drive people to vote Dems out of office en masse.
The problem for the Senate is that the House can't afford to wait. They need this passed now because they have been making promises to do this for so long that their constituents might start getting tired of waiting. And Paul Ryan knows if he can't get the job done on this ... POTUS just might turn his Twitter guns on him next.
I'm not talking about the Ryan wing vs. the Freedom Caucus ... it's the Senate vs. the House.
The House is split, indeed, and its worried for separate reasons (Ryan and friends know a failure essentially puts them in lame-duck status; Freedom Caucus knows that if they buckle to Ryan now, he has them by the balls from now on and their influence is diminished). But House districts are still by and large gerrymandered and without a Trump-led primary, many of them would likely be safe if it passes a House vote.
The Senate, meanwhile ... those who are Republicans from blue or purple states, or states where the ACA extended health insurance to millions that didn't have it before (and won't have it ever again if AHCA becomes law), have to be worried if this blows up. Not for 2018, but for 2020, when 22 of them will be up for re-election and a pissed off electorate wanting blood could send many of them packing if there's an especially strong wave election (Cory Gardner, Joni Ernst, Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and hell if it gets the coal miners angry enough, even McConnell could be vulnerable). They have more legitimate concerns about this going haywire and causing issues when they're at their most vulnerable in 2020, and they'd likely rather have a failed ACA to use as a cudgel in 2018 to drive people to vote Dems out of office en masse.
The problem for the Senate is that the House can't afford to wait. They need this passed now because they have been making promises to do this for so long that their constituents might start getting tired of waiting. And Paul Ryan knows if he can't get the job done on this ... POTUS just might turn his Twitter guns on him next.
balladofwindfishes
Member
You shouldn't even think about it at all. Just laugh at it.
1. It might just ever so slightly barely pass the House, and even then, that doesn't look likely. They're not really confident at all that they have the votes.
2. The senate is required to make some changes to the law. This will take a week, probably more.
3. There aren't enough votes in the Senate to pass this
4. Let's pretend there are enough votes in the Senate and 2 Senators lose their minds and want to be kicked out. The filibuster still exists. The Democrats are not going to let this get anywhere near passing. This is what the GOP wants. They want to be able to blame the Democrats when this doesn't pass.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
lol
Mike Huckabee, cannibal?
1. And finally the GOP will get what they've wanted since the day the ACA was passed. Once it actually starts happening attitudes could change rapidly
2. Agonizing.
3. Isn't the whole thing designed to pass with a simple majority? Most of it anyway?
4. McConnell could always kill the filibuster.
BoboBrazil
Member
Why are Dems even doing hearings for Gorsuch? Republicans wouldn't do the same.
um...good one, Huck.
Those hearings are happening with or without Dems present. Wouldn't you rather Senate Dems be there to press Gorsuch on what kind of judge he would be before he spends the next 30-40 years on the Supreme Court?
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Because the gop would do it regardless of who is not there
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Because they are in the minority and don't have a choice. They could just not show up, but then the hearings are just Republicans throwing softballs at Gorsuch.
balladofwindfishes
Member
1. The GOP (well, enough of them to matter) doesn't want ACA to be repealed. They played it up for 7 years because it was an easy target to point out without going full racist. They likely saw the presidential maps for the forseeable future and were content just being the opposition party. They were completely taken back winning everything this year.
2. How so? Go in full well knowing the bill isn't going to pass, and let them hang themselves with whatever garbage they can muster.
3. The house bill cannot pass with a simple majority.
4. He's never going to do that. He doesn't want this bill to pass. He wants the Democrats to take the blame for the repeal not passing.
The Democrats could just say "nope, need 60 votes, come back later with something better" and Gorsuch would never be a justice. They hold all the power here. McConnell isn't going to blink, his party is currently on fire.
You need to stop and ask yourself why you think Dems have a choice.
BoboBrazil
Member
Ah I was thinking it was the same like when Republicans did it to Obama. Why didn't Obama force Garland through to a vote without hearings?
I think Schumer has already said as much, no?
McConnell will just nuke that filibuster if he can't get eight Senate Dem votes, and especially if Senate Dems say outright from the start that they won't even consider Gorsuch. I don't believe that he'll get rid of the filibuster for the legislation -- that would be insane, and even Trump doesn't seem to be pushing McConnell to do that -- but I do think the SCOTUS filibuster will go if Dems don't give Gorsuch eight votes.
Republicans held the Senate Majority last year, which meant they held control over the Judiciary Committee and could decide whether or not to hold hearings for Garland. They chose not to. Dems were in the minority then as they are now, so there was no way for them to push Gorsuch through.
balladofwindfishes
Member
So make him do it. Never give him 8 votes. Force him to blink in the middle of a crisis in his own party.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Because the GOP had the senate majority and controlled the committee chairs. The President can't force anything through the senate.
RastaMentality
Banned
Not directed at you at all but i'm sure this belief is being spread across twitter for why the dems are weak! and need guidance!
Fenderputty
Banned
Blaming Dems for filibustering an awful bill that nobody likes seems like a shot in the dark
Outdoor Miner
Member
Fuckabee is the internet's worst comedian.
Veritigo_X
Member
Is this a sex joke?
GOP atm anyway
I'm not super concerned, go read FC member's twitter feeds this morning, nearly all of them are airing grievances. They just had a private meeting amongst themselves and they came out super fucking happy. Continued to shit on the plan.
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/844240471945875456
balladofwindfishes
Member
It's a panic button in case some senators lose their mind and actually vote for this thing
whyamihere
Banned
I'm still confused.
That's not even including the moderates.
That's not even including the moderates.
Fenderputty
Banned
It should be a pretty easy counter. Dems have always said tney would work with the GOP to make healthcare better. Kicking millions off of insurance due to lifted costs isn't that. The CBO report is their backup.
In fact the Dems should really take this as an opportunity to message this as GOP politicking with their constituents health considering they've had years to come up with something
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/844255035873775616
Mark Murray‏Verified account
@mmurraypolitics
NBC News has now ID'ed 26 House GOPers who are opposed/leaning strongly against House health-care bill, per @AlexNBCNews & @LACaldwellDC
I wonder how many are strongly leaning against vs definite no.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/844256931745337344
Smartest leader in DC is basically telling you the bill is dead.
Huckleberry family has moved on from torturing animals to murdering and eating humans. Natural progression really.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Probably call for Ryan to resign as speaker
Yea, it's looking dead. The public uproar seems to have scared off a lot of GOP members afraid for their seats.
I still can't believe Gohmert isn't backing it. I mean, really?
Standard op for these Russian outlets is to first gain credibility, and then use that credibility to push your agenda. So first you feed those who are aching for signs of trouble in the Trump Administration, and then once you think you have their confidence, you start projecting the real truth.
Can't look less likely than DOA.
Which is basically how RT operates. They syndicate enough legitimate programming that when it comes time to push their agenda people will defend them. You can see it very clearly in the OT whenever RT comes up, there's a defense force that falls for their shtick. There's a reason they keep to the same plan: it works.
Veritigo_X
Member
As far as that Rogue POTUS account, why would any leaker use a service like Twitter that literally saves incriminating evidence as you use it? That is really, really dumb. Real leakers use stuff like Signal or Confide to least attempt to covers your tracks.
And they leak their stuff to legit outfits to make sure it gets out into the public sphere. Starting a random twitter account isn't exactly making sure you're leaks are getting out there, especially when everyone and their grandmother are more than happy to publish and push leaks for the leakers.
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