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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Aaron Strife said:
Democrats won the New Hampshire special, pickup from the GOP

Lerner (D) 901 - 49.9%
Headd (R) 862 - 47.7%
Jarvis (L) 41 - 2.2%

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/912848920551809029

Seat backed Trump 59-36 and Romney 60-39.
Click to expand...

These types of swings already, and another full year for Trump to keep Trumping and the GOP to keep trying to rip health care away from millions while raising taxes on the poor and lowering them on the rich?

Yeah, I'm feeling really good about our chances in 2018.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Bonen no Max'd said:
it was a joke, I was just amused that Democrats won an election winning the white vote while losing the vote of a minority group, I know Cubans are super Republican
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I wouldn't call Cubans super Republican cause almost half of them went for Obama but they definitely vote a lot more like white urban Catholics than like Hispanic people from other backgrounds in other states.

Miami politics are just different. Non-Cuban Hispanic and African American tend to be super Democratic, but Haitian Americans are kinda purple and I'm not sure why the non-Hispanic white minority is so Democratic.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
In private, the president and his top aides freely admit that he is engaged in a culture war on behalf of his white, working-class base, a New York billionaire waging war against “politically correct” coastal elites on behalf of his supporters in the South and in the Midwest. He believes the war was foisted upon him by former President Barack Obama and other Democrats — and he is determined to win, current and former aides said.
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Trump’s N.F.L. Critique a Calculated Attempt to Shore Up His Base (NYtimes)
 
Z

Zolo

Member
whyamihere said:
This doesn't seem to have helped him in any tracking polls, so.

The more likely explanation is that he doesn't like being critiqued by women or POC, especially when it's women POC!
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The article basically says as much for your former point. His bipartisan deals give him ticks up for "moderate", but he seems to want to double-down on his base even though they would literally support him against pretty much anyone.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
kirblar said:
Axios's framing of various issues recently makes it really clear why Politico got better after those individuals left.
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Enjoyed their "Teflon Trump" headline for an article that basically said that a couple of focus groups of narrow slices of the electorate showed that not all attacks on Trump land with them.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
Enjoyed their "Teflon Trump" headline for an article that basically said that a couple of focus groups of narrow slices of the electorate showed that not all attacks on Trump land with them.
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"Middle-aged white small business owner in Ohio says Russian allegations don't concern him much, but is upset that Trump's done literally nothing to uphold his promises

...

Teflon Don!"
 
Z

Zolo

Member
B-Dubs said:
I mean, we already knew they were doing this shit.

EDIT: I will note that the ads described are clearly illegal and explains why Facebook is cooperating so much. They don't want any legal trouble.
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Yeah. Bots are also used to pretend to be crazy leftists like Republicans stereotype.
 
K

kirblar

Member
B-Dubs said:
I mean, we already knew they were doing this shit.

EDIT: I will note that the ads described are clearly illegal and it all explains why Facebook is cooperating so much. They don't want any legal trouble.
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Getting specific pro Sanders Stein and Trump in there is a big deal.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
whyamihere said:
lol the Russians bought FB ads to promote Jill Stein and to question Clinton's authenticity.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/26/facebook-russia-trump-sanders-stein-243172
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Shocking development.

170405-putin-flynn-dinner-jhc-1700_9121372097e5ea9e24a31d275df4466c.nbcnews-fp-1200-800.jpg
 
K

kess

Member
fredrancour said:
what the hell happened to the New Hampshire house to free up this many seats?

edit: 400 reps for a state that small? suddenly i'm realizing i know nothing about state legislatures.
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The New Hampshire House has always been highly elastic. It went from being fairly Democratic in 2008 to two-thirds Republican to the Tea Party wave in 2010 and then back to a strong Democratic majority in 2012 before returning a fairly sizable Republican majority in 2014.

Compare that to Oklahoma, where the Democrats went from a 26-22 majority in the Senate to a 40 to 6 deficit after Obama's presidency. Hmm, what ever motivated such a change?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
kess said:
The New Hampshire House has always been highly elastic. It went from being fairly Democratic in 2008 to two-thirds Republican to the Tea Party wave in 2010 and then back to a strong Democratic majority in 2012 before returning a fairly sizable Republican majority in 2014.

Compare that to Oklahoma, where the Democrats went from a 26-22 majority in the Senate to a 40 to 6 deficit after Obama's presidency. Hmm, what ever motivated such a change?
Click to expand...

Dixicrats, Party Switchers, Gerrymanderying, Southern Strategy, Polarization & Obama.

Carter himself could not carry Oklahoma and he has been the closest since Johnson in 1964.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
kess said:
The New Hampshire House has always been highly elastic. It went from being fairly Democratic in 2008 to two-thirds Republican to the Tea Party wave in 2010 and then back to a strong Democratic majority in 2012 before returning a fairly sizable Republican majority in 2014.

Compare that to Oklahoma, where the Democrats went from a 26-22 majority in the Senate to a 40 to 6 deficit after Obama's presidency. Hmm, what ever motivated such a change?
Click to expand...

By elastic I presume you mean schizophrenic.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
NYT's Maggie Haberman and Nate Silver went at each other on twitter. Haberman is one of the biggest "but her emails" journalist, second only to Clizza, and she was defending NYT's biased coverage. Nate Silver is arguing that NYT should admit it made a mistake in its overblown coverage of Hillary's emails.
Silver pointed out in his tweet that the New York Times granted extensive coverage to the Clinton email story, something Haberman has taken heat for since Trump’s electoral success.

Hence, Silver’s inclusion of a screenshot of the Times’ front page from October 29, 2016 — a day in which the Gray Lady devoted almost full-page coverage to former FBI director James Comey’s “re-opening” of the email investigation.

In a subsequent tweet, Silver claimed the Times was a “huge reason why” the Clinton email story dominated 2016 (he has also written about the media’s focus on Clinton’s emails, and the consequences, for FiveThirtyEight).
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https://www.mediaite.com/online/maggie-haberman-and-nate-silver-exchange-barbs-over-2016-coverage/

Have to side with Punished Silver despite his past screw ups. He admits them, and zeroing on people like Haberman is absolutely necessary.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
whyamihere said:
Doesn't matter.
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Basically

We need to figure out how to win. Or else this will continue to get worse. And the old guard bush era GOP will continue to be replaced by guys like him. Uncompetitive politics will be the end of us. We have to force them into being sane by stopping them if they are not.

We can't stop everyone but we have to try. We cannot simply just concede rural America and allow this stuff to continue. Every race has to be contested
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Haberman and Thrush have just dug in the more people have attacked them (as they should) for their email coverage.

At least Nate owned up to fucking up the GOP primary.
 
C

chadskin

Member
At polling places across the state Tuesday, voters said they struggled with the conflicting messages in the race. In downtown Montgomery, Mable Greenwood, 58, said she voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election but was now supporting Moore. “The world, I don’t think it’s going to be here too much longer,” she said, explaining her attraction to Moore’s religious message. “Everything that the Bible said is going to happen — it is happening.”
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/powe...7192f8-a253-11e7-b14f-f41773cd5a14_story.html

That's some interesting logic.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RustyNails said:
NYT's Maggie Haberman and Nate Silver went at each other on twitter. Haberman is one of the biggest "but her emails" journalist, second only to Clizza, and she was defending NYT's biased coverage. Nate Silver is arguing that NYT should admit it made a mistake in its overblown coverage of Hillary's emails.

https://www.mediaite.com/online/maggie-haberman-and-nate-silver-exchange-barbs-over-2016-coverage/

Have to side with Punished Silver despite his past screw ups. He admits them, and zeroing on people like Haberman is absolutely necessary.
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I mean, he's right. There's a strong sense of personal responsibility in the news, if you don't get the facts right that's on you and your career might be done if it's a big enough screw up. Which is how it should be. But there's little to no real institutional responsibility, it's not very self-reflective industry (not that many industries are).

chadskin said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powe...7192f8-a253-11e7-b14f-f41773cd5a14_story.html

That's some interesting logic.
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When people are frightened they turn to things like religion to find comfort and solace. That said, what the fuck?
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Sarah Kliff on Vox's Weeds podcast said there's talk among republicans of including health care on the reconciliation instructions alongside the tax reform instructions.

So maybe this ride isn't ending. Who knows, maybe the tax reform will be enticing enough to make people like McCain swallow back whatever his objections are to their repeal attempts. Or it might turn out doing two big and difficult bills in the same bill is as difficult as it sounds, and kills their tax reforms efforts as well.

I think I might prefer them to have instructions for both and go for broke on them getting nothing done, but it is worse if they actually get it to trump's desk.
 
F

fredrancour

Member
kess said:
The New Hampshire House has always been highly elastic. It went from being fairly Democratic in 2008 to two-thirds Republican to the Tea Party wave in 2010 and then back to a strong Democratic majority in 2012 before returning a fairly sizable Republican majority in 2014.

Compare that to Oklahoma, where the Democrats went from a 26-22 majority in the Senate to a 40 to 6 deficit after Obama's presidency. Hmm, what ever motivated such a change?
Click to expand...

Sorry, I meant "so many special elections for one house in one state? "
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
There are over 400 legislators in the NH House and they don't get paid so honestly a lot get bored and just retire early. One guy didn't realize how long it'd take him to get to Concord from his nursing home.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Haberman and Thrush have just dug in the more people have attacked them (as they should) for their email coverage.

At least Nate owned up to fucking up the GOP primary.
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I think 2016 was God's way of fucking with Nate Silver.

Nate pre-primary: "My numbers are showing Trump the undisputed frontrunner in the GOP primary... That can't be right. Need to throw in some variables for establishment support"

Nate post-primary: "Okay, I get it now. We have to trust the polls!"

Nate post-general election at everyone: "THIS IS ALL YOUR FAULT"
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Nate did what few others did - he gave more weight to the absurdly high # of undecideds which is why Trump still had a 30% chance of winning on Election Day (one of the highest iirc). And 30% does not equal 0.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Nate did what few others did - he gave more weight to the absurdly high # of undecideds which is why Trump still had a 30% chance of winning on Election Day (one of the highest iirc). And 30% does not equal 0.
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Yeah, the average person isn't going to be able to comprehend that though. That's the problem with binary results.
 
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