Yeah, I remember being in the Slack and in like two minutes people went from "wow Hillary is crushing him in Florida" to "oh fuck." And then in the thread...it started to swing around right away. I remember early tweets saying urban counties were coming in ahead and rural behind their 2012 benchmarks. It was all gone within 20 minutes really. When she was struggling in places like Michigan I went to sleep. I couldn't believe she lost PA when I woke up.
I heard a stand-up comedian describe it as "being at a party that turned into not a party". That's how it felt for me. It was just me and my douchebag conservative room mate watching the results come in and when Florida dragged out I knew something was wrong. Then we saw Michigan and PA were close, as was Wisconsin, and I got really nervous. He of course was loving it because "lol liberals". That was probably the fiercest we've been to each other--or rather the most outwardly mean I've been to him since I've lived there.
Interesting.
Not sure if Moore on the air is a good thing.
Like, Alabama is okay with crazy, but Roy Moore is REALLY crazy. That poll is actually really interesting to read through. 32% of the respondents that said they were voting for Jones said it was specifically because they were against Roy Moore, while 35% of Jones voters said it was due to Party Loyalty/Against GOP. Conversely, only 2% of Moore voters were "Anti-Jones" votes, and 41% were Party Loyalty/Against Dems.
Of the people who selected Jones, 21% openly said they Dislike Moore. Of the people who selected Moore, only 7% said they Dislike Jones. They are pretty even in their percentage of Strong Support, but 28% are reserved in their support for Jones, compared to 42% who have reservations about Moore--yet still want to vote for him. A plurality of voters say Moore's views are out of step with Alabama (39 - 37, so a 2 point gap there).
The most interesting splits are the favorable/unfavorables. Roy Moore's net favorability is +10. Doug Jones is currently +25. The trade off here is 23% of respondents came back with a "Can't Say" and 10% didn't know enough about him. You can either read that as he has quite a bit of room to grow since his overall favorability is only 3 points behind Moore, or that Moore's floor is 48-49%.
I think it's going to be a close race no matter what the outcome. I don't see either candidate winning by 5+ points, and if Jones squeaks out a win I expect it to be by less than 1% of the vote.