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PoliGAF 2nd Pres. Debate 2008 Thread (DOW dropping, Biden is off to Home Depot)

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CharlieDigital said:
pathetic.gif

Beaten by Romania, Moldova and Lithuania. :lol
 
lopaz said:
Get real, most of the rest of the world doesn't know shit about what Obama or Mccain stand for, O's just the better headline grabber.

Not that it much matters but based on their own politics it's almost a forgone conclusion they would vote for him simply based on ideology and relative positioning of the Republican party versus other right parties in their own countries.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Sharp said:
Looking at that, anyone who says this election is even close to being a Dole-style blowout is fooling him-or-herself. Clinton's smallest lead there is Obama's largest, if I'm not mistaken. Similarly, anyone who said that Kerry closing in the polls a lot at the end meant that there was a reasonable chance for his victory should have looked at those charts--that happens literally every single time and it doesn't seem to ever change anything (except with Reagan). In an historical context this election is still pretty close.
Sharp: for a more scientific examination of the trends from past elections, I suggest you read these two articles:

Article 1 | Article 2

Here are the pretty pictures:

fiftypct_gallup-thumb-200x382.png
eightpct_gallup-thumb-200x345.png


For the Gallup poll, breaking 50% and holding an 8% margin in October is very significant.

For all national polls compared to the past two elections:

Pres08vs04aand000verlay-thumb-600x450.png


Obama is currently six points higher than Al Gore was in 2000 and 12 points higher than Kerry in 2004 at the same point in time.

Obama might not have a Clinton-like blowout, but the odds of him winning are crazy-high right now.
 

smurfx

get some go again
dow down 200 points right now. damn things keep getting worse. hopefully obama gives some strong clear messages on what he plans to do for the economy today.
 

Sharp

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Sharp: for a more scientific examination of the trends from past elections, I suggest you read these two articles:

Article 1 | Article 2

Here are the pretty pictures:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/assets_c/2008/10/fiftypct_gallup-thumb-200x382.png[IMG] [IMG]http://www.pollster.com/blogs/assets_c/2008/10/eightpct_gallup-thumb-200x345.png[IMG]

For the Gallup poll, breaking 50% and holding an 8% margin in October is very significant.

For all national polls compared to the past two elections:

[IMG]http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Pres08vs04aand000verlay-thumb-600x450.png[IMG]

Obama is currently six points higher than Al Gore was in 2000 and 12 points higher than Kerry in 2004 at the same point in time.

Obama might not have a Clinton-like blowout, but the odds of him winning are crazy-high right now.[/QUOTE]
I agree that he's going to win. But the way GAFers were talking made me think that it was likely to be a complete blowout, when if you look at it historically this is a pretty close election. And looking at these numbers also helps because I'll know not to panic when McCain shoots up 3-4 points in the polls as election day nears, since it happens pretty much every time.
 
bune duggy said:
well, some workplaces (like mine) don't let you install programs and we're forced to use IE 6.0.29. Ugh.

That's not a workplace; that's a labor camp. Time to revolt!

MassiveAttack said:
Perhaps McCain and Palin should suggest setting up internment camps there.

Don't give them any ideas.
 

Barrett2

Member
CharlieDigital said:
That's not a workplace; that's a labor camp. Time to revolt!

This summer I worked at the Department of Justice, and their systems were set to run most programs through Netscape!! Going to work felt like a little daily trip to Honduras.
 

DrEvil

not a medical professional
smurfx said:
dow down 200 points right now. damn things keep getting worse. hopefully obama gives some strong clear messages on what he plans to do for the economy today.

DrEvil%20_orig.JPG



MUUUAHUHA HUA HU AH UH AH AH AHA

-241 now :p
 

Stridone

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Sharp: for a more scientific examination of the trends from past elections, I suggest you read these two articles:

Article 1 | Article 2

Here are the pretty pictures:

fiftypct_gallup-thumb-200x382.png
eightpct_gallup-thumb-200x345.png


For the Gallup poll, breaking 50% and holding an 8% margin in October is very significant.

For all national polls compared to the past two elections:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Pres08vs04aand000verlay-thumb-600x450.png

Obama is currently six points higher than Al Gore was in 2000 and 12 points higher than Kerry in 2004 at the same point in time.

Obama might not have a Clinton-like blowout, but the odds of him winning are crazy-high right now.

What happened to Gore back then?
 

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
MassiveAttack said:
So the city of Chicago gave Ayers its "Citizen of the Year" award in 1997. The entire city is apparently "palling around with terrorists". Is Chicago a safe harbor for terrorists?

Wait, really?? :lol HOW DO REPUBLICANS STAND THEMSELVES?? God. I'd fucking hate myself if I was that full of shit.
 

Macam

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
I think it's still a bit early to know if the Ayers shit or the general "He's not one of us" line of attack is going to be at all effective. That being said, if the tracking polls close some by the end of the week don't jump to the conclusion that those attacks are what is causing it-there will be some general tightening as there always is and at some point Obama is going to give up at least three or so points in the tracking aggregate.

The Ayers thing is pretty much DOA. The economy's tanking yesterday smothered any other real news and tonight's debate, accompanied by its inevitable two-day post coverage, will further smother any other real political news until Friday at best. It'll also eat up most of the Sunday circuit air. The only way it's going to gain any traction is if there's a lull in major news events and, frankly, I just don't see that happening anytime soon.
 

Sharp

Member
Wow, also from Gallup: Record low of 9% of people are satisfied with the way this country is going. I realize that getting 91% of Americans to agree on anything is nearly impossible, but who are those 9% and when do you stop calling it "optimism" and start calling it "terminal stupidity?" I mean, you'd have to not only be unaware of what was going on, but also not know anyone who was aware of what was going on, and also never turn on your television, read the newspaper, use the Internet, or indeed do anything but converse with pollsters via your ancient cracked telephone that only works twice a day.
 

Tarazet

Member
bune duggy said:
well, some workplaces (like mine) don't let you install programs and we're forced to use IE 6.0.29. Ugh.

Holy shit, you're me. I can't install programs and have to use IE 6.0.29 at work too.
 
lawblob said:
Supreme Court chose Bush
See, this is a bit scary now. There are people out there who don't know about Bush v. Gore. It could happen again!
GhaleonEB said:
Yup. And of course, he actually won the popular vote, which is what the Gallup poll is predictive of.
2000 was fucked up...really fucked up. Our economy would be in a totally different state right now if Gore had won. Our outlook would be much better too from a science and engineering perspective and energy as well.
 

DrEvil

not a medical professional
gcubed said:
fuck that, how about Obama wins and i DONT lose 40% of my 401k?

I'm so glad I didn't leave everything in the market, I would have lost a doozy... can't wait for the rebound!
 

agrajag

Banned
mckmas8808 said:
DOW JONES down 229 points.


:(

So what happens when it gets down to zero? Does snow turn black and volcanoes spit out gummy worms and penguins? Does the world end as we know it?
 
Macam said:
The Ayers thing is pretty much DOA. The economy's tanking yesterday smothered any other real news and tonight's debate, accompanied by its inevitable two-day post coverage, will further smother any other real political news until Friday at best. It'll also eat up most of the Sunday circuit air. The only way it's going to gain any traction is if there's a lull in major news events and, frankly, I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

I agree. If the TV networks get bored and need a story to cover there are plenty of polls coming out every day at this point and they can start talking about "How can John McCain win?" or "McCain is only down 5 in Ohio? This is good news for John McCain!" or some BS.

They should have hit Obama with this attack way earlier, before the convention and especially before first debate where Obama got an opportunity to connect with voters and reassure them that he's not the risky choice on the ticket.
 

DrEvil

not a medical professional
agrajag said:
So what happens when it gets down to zero? Does snow turn black and volcanoes spit out gummy worms and penguins? Does the world end as we know it?

We need to insert 2 credits to continue.
 

Sharp

Member
agrajag said:
So what happens when it gets down to zero? Does snow turn black and volcanoes spit out gummy worms and penguins? Does the world end as we know it?
Uh, I realize you're joking but what would "gets down to zero" actually mean, barring the simultaneous failure of every single publicly traded company?
 

lopaz

Banned
Sharp said:
Wow, also from Gallup: Record low of 9% of people are satisfied with the way this country is going. I realize that getting 91% of Americans to agree on anything is nearly impossible, but who are those 9% and when do you stop calling it "optimism" and start calling it "terminal stupidity?" I mean, you'd have to not only be unaware of what was going on, but also not know anyone who was aware of what was going on, and also never turn on your television, read the newspaper, use the Internet, or indeed do anything but converse with pollsters via your ancient cracked telephone that only works twice a day.

They're happy cause all signs are pointing to the rapture
this is probably true
 

Barrett2

Member
CharlieDigital said:
See, this is a bit scary now. There are people out there who don't know about Bush v. Gore. It could happen again!

2000 was fucked up...really fucked up. Our economy would be in a totally different state right now if Gore had won. Our outlook would be much better too from a science and engineering perspective and energy as well.


I seriously think if anything like 2000 happens again, we will have rioting in the streets, and rightfully so. Bush v. Gore went against everything conservatives are supposed to stand for; federalism, state's rights, etc.

I can't even imagine if it all happened again. Action would have to be taken.
 

Sharp

Member
Fragamemnon said:
DJIA -300 now.

I wonder if this Town Hall is going to be almost a purely domestic issue debate, my hunch is a big YES.
They're vetted on their questions beforehand, so while I'm sure domestic issues are going to comprise a pretty substantial majority of them, there will likely be a decent mix of other questions as well.
 

explodet

Member
Sharp said:
Record low of 9% of people are satisfied with the way this country is going. I realize that getting 91% of Americans to agree on anything is nearly impossible, but who are those 9% and when do you stop calling it "optimism" and start calling it "terminal stupidity?"
Keep in mind there are some people who thrive on times like these.
Repo men, for example.
 
Fragamemnon said:
DJIA -300 now.

I wonder if this Town Hall is going to be almost a purely domestic issue debate, my hunch is a big YES.
I'm scouring the internet for videos of the past presidential townhall debates,so I can get a good idea of how the questions are asked.
 

Haunted

Member
agrajag said:
So what happens when it gets down to zero? Does snow turn black and volcanoes spit out gummy worms and penguins? Does the world end as we know it?
"Welcome to the human race."

escape_l.jpg
 
explodet said:
Keep in mind there are some people who thrive on times like these.
Repo men, for example.

Or people like in this video:

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/foreclosure-alley.html

*) Guys who clean up after owners of foreclosed homes.
*) Teams of people who drain out swimming pools after the owners leave the house abruptly due to foreclosure.
*) People who spray paint brown, unmanaged yards of foreclosed homes green with biodegradable paint to make houses more attractive.

edit: that video is truly crazy and gives a glimpse at the despair of people going through foreclosure.
 
I don't get McCain. His kitchen sink rhetoric only appeals to the people that are already on board. They're fighting for a very small piece of the electorate at this stage, and McCain is completely ignoring them.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Macam said:
The Ayers thing is pretty much DOA. The economy's tanking yesterday smothered any other real news and tonight's debate, accompanied by its inevitable two-day post coverage, will further smother any other real political news until Friday at best. It'll also eat up most of the Sunday circuit air. The only way it's going to gain any traction is if there's a lull in major news events and, frankly, I just don't see that happening anytime soon.


And guess what drops on Friday? Yep the Alaska legal probe into Sarah Palin's investigation.
 
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