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[StoOgE]

Joe Scarborough: Obama always under performs the polls. Really Joe? Really?

Because he actually over performed in almost every state during the primary. I mean, I guess if you compare his performance to the outlier maybe he underperforms.. but then again Iowa, South Carolina, the Potomac primaries, Wisconsin and almost all of Super Tuesday he wound up crushing all estimates.

 

[StoOgE]

538 predicted NC and Indiana correctly in the primary.

538 was remarkably accurate in the primaries. Everyone got Indiana wrong except for Nate.

That is what gives me hope in his model. And if his model is right... sogood.gif

 

[AndresON777]

I was driving about 20 miles north of Atlanta yesterday and I saw an suv and on the back...on the rear window in lettering it had, no shit:

November 4th 2008

Freedom vs Socialism


Man I cracked up I was chasing the guy to take a pic with my cell phone but the quality didnt come out too good.

 

[woeds]

Just to be sure. Am I correct in assuming that the race will be called somewhere between 18.00-24.00 EST?

 

[artredis1980]

538 was remarkably accurate in the primaries. Everyone got Indiana wrong except for Nate.

That is what gives me hope in his model. And if his model is right... sogood.gif

All I want to know is Nate's prediction for during the primaries:

1. NC
2. FL
3. OH
4. PA
5. VA
6. CO
7. NM
8. NV
9. IN
10. MN

 

[Souldriver]

Polllllliiiiiigggggaaaaaaaaffffffffffff

Dax is here. Let's get Election Day Eve started!

Why do you mention your name in half of your posts. Ever noticed that yourself?

 

[syllogism]

Looks like msnbc stream is already up

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22887506#22887506

 

[Cheebs]

Where have you been? He's been doing that since the spring. I think he's just a bot.

Come to think of it I can't think of a single post of his that wasn't just c/p'ed old poll results or lists. Weird. :lol

 

[StoOgE]

Just to be sure. Am I correct in assuming that the race will be called somewhere between 18.00-24.00 EST?

Hard to say for sure, but it should be before 1AM EST.

 

[artredis1980]

538 predicted NC and Indiana correctly in the primary.

Nate has McCain winning IN.

 

[Evlar]

Joe Scarborough: Obama always under performs the polls. Really Joe? Really?

Because he actually over performed in almost every state during the primary. I mean, I guess if you compare his performance to the outlier maybe he underperforms.. but then again Iowa, South Carolina, the Potomac primaries, Wisconsin and almost all of Super Tuesday he wound up crushing all estimates.

Yeah. We wouldn't be talking about Obama at all right now if the Iowa caucus results had matched the polling.

 

[Stoney Mason]

I've liked the Swiftjews for Truth.

http://www.236.com/video/2008/swiftjews_for_truth_muslim_fai_1_9970.php
http://www.236.com/video/2008/swiftjews_for_truth_diversity_9598.php

 

[itsinmyveins]

I was driving about 20 miles north of Atlanta yesterday and I saw an suv and on the back...on the rear window in lettering it had, no shit:

November 4th 2008

Freedom vs Socialism


Man I cracked up I was chasing the guy to take a pic with my cell phone but the quality didnt come out too good.

That whole Obama/socialism-thing is such bullshit. Can't believe it's actually getting into news discussions and etc.

 

[Cheebs]

All I want to know is Nate's prediction for during the primaries:

1. NC
2. FL
3. OH
4. PA
5. VA
6. CO
7. NM
8. NV
9. IN
10. MN

artredis I have one thing to tell you:

Calm.
Down.






Everything is going perfectly, we couldn't be in better shape the day before an election. Stop worrying and going around finding every poll there ever was.

 

[artredis1980]

Nate and Rasmussen seem to have alot in common. it seems everything Ras is predicting is exactly the same as Nate's 538, are they using the same methodologies???

Regardless, both Nate and Rasmussen have Obama winning 300+ ev's so im cool.



Hey guys! im just nervous! I was fucked when i was supporting Dean. I was fucked when I was supporting gore! I was fucked when I was supporting Kerry


I DONT wanna be fucked again!

 

[Barrett2]

Why do you mention your name in half of your posts. Ever noticed that yourself?

Marking his territory








- lawblob

 

[so_awes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz7gajAb2ww
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz7gajAb2ww

 

[iapetus]

That whole Obama/socialism-thing is such bullshit.

I'm still annoyed by the whole bullshit surrounding 'socialism' becoming a dirty word in the US.

 

[Souldriver]

Marking his territory








- lawblob

It's so silly.











~~The Souldriver One~~

 

[scorcho]

http://thisfuckingelection.com/

(img too large to post here. forum would die.)

 

[The Librarian]

artredis I have one thing to tell you:

Calm.
Down.






Everything is going perfectly, we couldn't be in better shape the day before an election. Stop worrying and going around finding every poll there ever was.

No.

NO.

WE MUST BE CONCERNED!

 

[Evlar]

I'm still annoyed by the whole bullshit surrounding 'socialism' becoming a dirty word in the US.

I'm clinging to a wild dream that, post-election, the nation will look back at the fear-mongering of the last month and collectively decide "Know what? This socialism thing isn't so scary."

 

[itsinmyveins]

I'm still annoyed by the whole bullshit surrounding 'socialism' becoming a dirty word in the US.

Well yeah, especially since there are bunch of socialized aspects of the socity in USA.

 

[Blackhead]

If Obama wins it will be the triumph of small donors over large donors- one facet of the smartest campaign of my lifetime.

I keep hearing that and I'd like some figures to go with it. Obama's raised a lot of money from small donors but his big donors have also largely increased as well. If we discount Obama's small donors and McCain's government funding I think Obama still raised a lot more.

 

[artredis1980]

artredis I have one thing to tell you:

Calm.
Down.






Everything is going perfectly, we couldn't be in better shape the day before an election. Stop worrying and going around finding every poll there ever was.

they said the same shit when i was supporting Gore, Dean and Kerry! and look what happened there

 

[Cheebs]

they said the same shit when i was supporting Gore, Dean and Kerry! and look what happened there

NONE of those people were in as strong as position Obama is in. This is not the time to freak out. Speaking as the original chicken little there is absolutely nothing to be scared about. Everything is looking FANTASTIC. Stop digging up old polls and fretting over them. Celebrate this last day of the election.


This isn't a close election, you freaking out right now is like a Republican freaking out the day before the 1980 election or a democrat freaking out the day before the 1992 election! This is not 2000 or 2004. Be happy, we are in a perfect position.

 

[Shiggie]

http://thisfuckingelection.com/

(img too large to post here. forum would die.)

Check page 16.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=13474966&postcount=759

 

[Seth C]

Just to be sure. Am I correct in assuming that the race will be called somewhere between 18.00-24.00 EST?

If it isn't called by 24:00 EST then something has gone terribly wrong. It should be called shortly after California's polls close at the latest, which is 22:00 I believe. There is no way it will be called as early as 18:00 though, as many of the east coast state's polls don't even close until 19:00.

 

[gcubed]

weee, Joe is awesome... I cant wait for bitter tears from everyone

 

[artredis1980]

NONE of those people were in as strong as position Obama is in. This is not the time to freak out. Speaking as the original chicken little there is absolutely nothing to be scared about. Everything is looking FANTASTIC. Stop digging up old polls and fretting over them. Celebrate this last day of the election.


This isn't a close election, you freaking out right now is like a Republican freaking out the day before the 1980 election or a democrat freaking out the day before the 1992 election! This is not 2000 or 2004. Be happy, we are in a perfect position.

*pops his 14 pills*

 

[Cheebs]

No.

NO.

WE MUST BE CONCERNED!

Obviously sarcasm, but as long as everyone in this thread votes there is no reason to run around scared shitless over week old polls. I can't think of a single thing to be worried about.

OMGZ OBAMA MAY ONLY WIN 345 EV NOT 375 EV? OOOOOH NOOOOOOOOOO....

 

[Stoney Mason]

THAT’S SOME STREAK
Posted: Monday, November 03, 2008 10:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Obama From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama has now led in 111 straight national polls with methodologies we trust (looking back through the Pollster.com national trend), including the trackers back to Sept. 22-24 when a Gallup Tracking poll showed the race tied at 46%-46%. Since a Big Ten poll that showed McCain up 46%-45%, Obama has led in 117 of 119 polls.

.

 

[EmCeeGramr]

VALJEAN
One day more!
Another day, another destiny.
This never-ending road to Calvary;
These men who seem to know my crime
Will surely come a second time.
One day more!

MARIUS
I did not live until today.
How can I live when we are parted?

VALJEAN
One day more.

MARIUS & COSETTE
Tomorrow you'll be worlds away
And yet with you, my world has started!

EPONINE
One more day all on my own.

MARIUS & COSETTE
Will we ever meet again?

EPONINE
One more day with him not caring.

MARIUS & COSETTE
I was born to be with you.

EPONINE
What a life I might have known.

MARIUS & COSETTE
And I swear I will be true!

EPONINE
But he never saw me there!

ENJOLRAS
One more day before the storm!

MARIUS
Do I follow where she goes?

ENJOLRAS
At the barricades of freedom.

MARIUS
Shall I join my brothers there?

ENJOLRAS
When our ranks begin to form

MARIUS
Do I stay; and do I dare?

ENJOLRAS
Will you take your place with me?

ALL
The time is now, the day is here

VALJEAN
One day more!

JAVERT
One more day to revolution,
We will nip it in the bud!
I will join these little schoolboys,
They will wet themselves with blood!

VALJEAN
One day more!

M. & MME. THENARDIER
Watch 'em run amuck,
Catch 'em as they fall,
Never know your luck
When there's a free for all,
Here a little `dip'
There a little `touch'
Most of them are goners
So they won't miss much!

Students (2 Groups)
1: One day to a new beginning

2: Raise the flag of freedom high!

1: Every man will be a king

2: Every man will be a king

1: There's a new world for the winning

2: There's a new world to be won

ALL
Do you hear the people sing?

MARIUS
My place is here, I fight with you!

VALJEAN
One day more!

MARIUS & COSETTE
I did not live until today.

EPONINE
One more day all on my own!

MARIUS & COSETTE
How can I live when we are parted?

JAVERT(overlapping)
I will join these people's heros
I will follow where they go
I will learn their little Secrets,
I will know the things they know.

VALJEAN
One day more!

MARIUS & COSETTE
Tomorrow you'll be worlds away

EPONINE
What a life I might have known!

MARIUS & COSETTE
And yet with you my world has started

JAVERT(overlapping)
One more day to revolution
We will nip it in the bud
We'll be ready for these

Schoolboys

THENARDIERS(overlapping)
Watch 'em run amok
Catch 'em as they fall
Never know your luck
When there's a free-for-all!

VALJEAN
Tomorrow we'll be far away,
Tomorrow is the judgement day

ALL
Tomorrow we'll discover
What our God in Heaven has in store!
One more dawn
One more day
One day more!

 

[SteveMeister]

I don't want this to happen, and I hope it doesn't happen, but I have a feeling McCain's going to pull this one off. Here's why:

People respond more to FEAR than to HOPE.

The McCain campaign has been doing what the Republican party has done for years -- telling people they should be afraid of an Obama presidency. He's not ready to lead. He's never been in charge of anything. He has no experience. He'll raise your taxes. He'll spend $1 trillion by raising your taxes and wreck the economy. He's a socialist. He's a liberal. He pals around with terrorists. He needed his faith in America vindicated, while McCain always had faith. McCain has served his country while Obama has served his own interests in a "quick rise to power." He and his "liberal congressional allies" will ruin the economy and make the nation less secure. Etc.

I think that it's going to make a difference. I hope it doesn't, because it says a lot of bad things about Americans.

So, here's hoping that HOPE wins out over FEAR, and that my own fears are unjustified.

 

[crowphoenix]

I'm still annoyed by the whole bullshit surrounding 'socialism' becoming a dirty word in the US.

It's just a a buzz word. One that ends in ism that can be implied to be marxism, which is communism, which is, of course, the greatest evil America has ever faced. It will come back. It will come back. Fear! Feeeaaaar!

 

[Evlar]

All of the East Coast tier states will close polling by 7:00pm EST with the exception of Florida. Then Florida and most everything Texas eastward will close at 8:00pm EST. We'll have a pretty clear picture of how things are shaking out by that time.

 

[Opiate]

I'm still annoyed by the whole bullshit surrounding 'socialism' becoming a dirty word in the US.

This is my feeling as well. It's reminiscent of the successful campaign to make "liberal" a taboo.

Obviously Socialistic policies can go too far; on the other hand, it's apparent that Free Markets can go too far, as well.

So why is "I believe in a free market system" such a beloved phrase, while any mention of Socialism is anathema? We, like every other country in the world, are somewhere in the middle, with some socialist tendencies and some capitalist ones. It's as if we're denying a part of our country exists.

 

[glistenm]

Is there somewhere where you can get total so far for early voting for the whole country?

 

[Souldriver]

I'm so pumped, it's unbelievable. :lol I actually have a Word doc with URLs to all GAF posts with useful links and info.

Stating the obvious: the whole world will watch this election closely. Tomorrow night there will be election parties here in Belgium. Booze, Dancing, Music, and a big screen which cuts in to election results all the time. Some of my friends are getting together and plan to watch CNN all night long. Seriously, everyone is pumped for this election. And if Obama loses, all over the world Prozac sales will go up up up! :/


Btw: there is a special EU summit going on right now, where all 27 countries try to come out with 1 clear message/congratulation for the new President.

 

[Haunted]

atredis just wants a chicken little tag, too.

 

[woeds]

If it isn't called by 24:00 EST then something has gone terribly wrong. It should be called shortly after California's polls close at the latest, which is 22:00 I believe. There is no way it will be called as early as 18:00 though, as many of the east coast state's polls don't even close until 19:00.

Ok, cool. Just wanted to know when to head home from the pub, I'm at EST+6 here.

 

[Vennt]

Yeehawwww! Back home off tour just in time for the fun'n'games.

I take it there were no major game-changers over the last 2 weeks then?

 

[The Librarian]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBjzAa1yikY

 

[Cheebs]

I don't want this to happen, and I hope it doesn't happen, but I have a feeling McCain's going to pull this one off. Here's why:

People respond more to FEAR than to HOPE.

Bush Sr. in 1992 ran on fear. Clinton in 1992 ran on hope. In fact that campaign (other than Perot) is extremely similiar to this one. Bush was a angry grumpy old Washington insider who the conservative base wasn't fond of and showed his disdain for Clinton in the debates. And his VP running mate was a laughing stock of the media. Clinton was young, inexperienced, unknown and ran on hope, change, and the economy.

Who won that one?

 

[aesop]

MSNBC is really trying to hammer home this "Bradley Effect" scenario where Obama looses big.

Apparently, they're looking at exit polling (I'm assuming from the primaries) that showed Obama up in certain states but actually losing.

 

[numble]

Song

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ijYVyhnn0

 

[Stoney Mason]

Yeehawwww! Back home off tour just in time for the fun'n'games.

I take it there were no major game-changers over the last 2 weeks then?

 

[gcubed]

Yeehawwww! Back home off tour just in time for the fun'n'games.

I take it there were no major game-changers over the last 2 weeks then?

Obama had a bat baby that he has hidden until now, he is cratering in polls due to his embarassment of the alien like baby

 

[crowphoenix]

I'm really looking forward to casting my Obama vote into the Alabama Pit of McCain. I've been doing well so far in keeping my stress down as I followed the election, but I think the tension and the political ads of my state are starting to get to me.

 

[artredis1980]

MSNBC is really trying to hammer home this "Bradley Effect" scenario where Obama looses big.

Apparently, they're looking at exit polling (I'm assuming from the primaries) that showed Obama up in certain states but actually losing.

MSNBC forgets to mentioned alot of states where republicans could vote in Dem primaries, most voted for Hillary especially in Ohio and Texas