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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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T

Tamanon

Banned
This "Generic-off" bit is awesome.

"We need more regulations to get government out of the sector!"

:lol The Circular talk Express

"Only POW that was brainwashed AFTER his captivity"
 
T

Tobor

Member
So, explain something to me. I'm 32, I make good money, and I'm active politically(I vote, and I donate), yet I can't be polled. I haven't had a land line in years. Most of my peers don't have one either. Do they have another way to collect data beyond land lines? What happens in 4 more years, as land line numbers have shrunk even further?
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Tobor said:
So, explain something to me. I'm 32, I make good money, and I'm active politically(I vote, and I donate), yet I can't be polled. I haven't had a land line in years. Most of my peers don't have one either. Do they have another way to collect data beyond land lines? What happens in 4 more years, as land line numbers have shrunk even further?
Click to expand...

I assume pretty much the same thing that NPD does with Walmart. Statistical representations based on the rest of the market and known voter trends. In other words, the people that have a landline and respond to polls are some representative portion of the voting public, and people without landlines follow another demographic trend. They'll attempt to account for both and estimate.
 
T

TDG

Banned
Gaborn said:
Well, Barr's election would show that we were ready for a libertarian president.
Click to expand...
But it would also slow down the process of the country moving to 100% libertarian policies, because people would see Barr as "this is what Libertarianism is," rather than a stop in the road, and it would set the movement towards complete libertarianism many years back, correct?
 
M

Mr. E. Yis

Banned
Arde5643 said:
All the better to make a movie of it - the classic good vs evil.
Click to expand...


That reminds me, isn't Ed Norton doing that Obama documentary of his run for presidency? He started making it when Obama entered the primaries. I wonder how it's going. It will be awesome if Obama wins, but full of tears if he loses.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Mr. E. Yis said:
That reminds me, isn't Ed Norton doing that Obama documentary of his run for presidency? He started making it when Obama entered the primaries. I wonder how it's going. It will be awesome if Obama wins, but full of tears if he loses.
Click to expand...

Yeah he's still doing it. I think it's why you haven't seen Norton lately.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
TDG said:
But it would also slow down the process of the country moving to 100% libertarian policies, because people would see Barr as "this is what Libertarianism is," rather than a stop in the road, and it would set the movement towards complete libertarianism many years back, correct?
Click to expand...

No because Barr isn't setting up a parallel unlibertarian system, he's basically running on a libertarian platform and thus, assuming he governs as his platform would have him do (not a perfect assumption but it's impossible to predict how he'd differ) he'd give voters a good idea of libertarian philosophy. On the other hand, with civil unions the sole purpose is exclusionary. That is, Obama wants to set up civil unions as the replacement for gay marriage only for same sex couples. It's a wholly parallel system and never the twain shall meet
 
S

SnakeXs

about the same metal capacity as a cucumber
For the record, the Obama online campaign is fucking amazing.

I volunteered for phonecalls from home 3 days ago. 2 nights ago I got an email askingf or my help.

Yesterday morning I tried to get into the system and it couldn't find my address. I tried different permutations to no avail. I sent a comment and in just under 24 hours they replied to me saying they fixed it and I should be able to get going.

That's change we can believe in.
 
P

polyh3dron

Banned
AndyIsTheMoney said:
this situation is very managable, and we can come back from this and improve our situation. I just hope the next President stresses to people that we all need to sacrifice for the good of our country. that we all are expected to give more and receive less. I swear its reasons like this that makes me wish Ron Paul would have won the primary. It seems like McCain and Obama are too scared to tell the people the things we need to sacrifice in order to improve our situation. We cant tax our way out of this either, its going to require very smart and savoy investing on the governments part, neither of which is either candidates forte.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't it be awesome to see Ron Paul vs Obama in 2012?
 
T

Tobor

Member
Gaborn said:
I assume pretty much the same thing that NPD does with Walmart. Statistical representations based on the rest of the market and known voter trends. In other words, the people that have a landline and respond to polls are some representative portion of the voting public, and people without landlines follow another demographic trend. They'll attempt to account for both and estimate.
Click to expand...

I suppose, it just seems like this data would be more important than how many Wii's sold this month. Long term, some sort of solution is going to have to be found. The land line and newspaper are going to share a similar timeline.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Tobor said:
I suppose, it just seems like this data would be more important than how many Wii's sold this month. Long term, some sort of solution is going to have to be found. The land line and newspaper are going to share a similar timeline.
Click to expand...

Sure eventually, but remember, polling never was getting the whole market anyway, it was a little more of a cross section but not much, there will always be statistical representations and it's never going to be a perfect science.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Mr. E. Yis said:
That reminds me, isn't Ed Norton doing that Obama documentary of his run for presidency? He started making it when Obama entered the primaries. I wonder how it's going. It will be awesome if Obama wins, but full of tears if he loses.
Click to expand...
If you want a completely fictionalized prewritten account of it, there's one on The West Wing with the character Matt Santos. ;)
 
T

Tobor

Member
Gaborn said:
Sure eventually, but remember, polling never was getting the whole market anyway, it was a little more of a cross section but not much, there will always be statistical representations and it's never going to be a perfect science.
Click to expand...

I'd love to see some information on how these representations are being made on the polls we are getting right now. I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I can't help but feel the numbers are skewed.
 
T

TDG

Banned
So while you think that at the very least, a Barr presidency would give people an idea of what Libertarianism is, but you can't think of any comparable advantages to Obama's civil union plans? I know I can.
Besides, even if the gap between CUs and gay marriage is larger than the gap between Bob Barr and true libertarianism, most of Barr's policies would never be approved by congress, so people would be left with a bastardized idea of libertarianism, and the movement for true libertarian gov. would suffer.
 
S

SpeedingUptoStop

will totally Facebook friend you! *giggle* *LOL*
Who does the current polling system favor? Either candidate? I'm not talking about results, I'm talking about how they're obtained (who's being polled)
 
S

Stoney Mason

Banned
SpeedingUptoStop said:
Who does the current polling system favor? Either candidate? I'm not talking about results, I'm talking about how they're obtained (who's being polled)
Click to expand...

You won't know until the election results. There are some inherent polling biases based on voting like age, race, etc but it all depends on registration, who shows up, etc.
 
The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
Stoney Mason said:
Interesting read



http://mediamatters.org/columns/200809160015
Click to expand...

Very good article.

The McCain campaign has basically circumvented the media. They've shown how toothless the media has become.

If the media still had any teeth, they would refuse to cover any of Palin's rallies and basically give her a media blackout until she opens up to the press. Instead, the media keeps complaining that she doesn't do press interviews yet they still devote 80% of their coverage to her. They just need to black her out. Then pretty soon the McCain campaign will come back begging for coverage.
 
Xisiqomelir

Xisiqomelir

Member
TheGrayGhost said:
So... is Obama gonna win this thing?
Click to expand...

Obamabet.jpg
 
M

Mandark

Small balls, big fun!
We talking about Gaborn's civil union schtick again?

Let me say this about that: He's certainly welcome to his opinion and I follow his logic. I can see where he's coming from.

However, he's making a very counterintuitive argument with no evidence to support it. If opponents of gay marriage, say, believed this then they'd be lining up to pass civil union laws. Considering 95%+ of the activists involved on both sides of the debate think otherwise, I'd have to hear something more from him before filing this under "interesting though probably wrong".
 
T

TDG

Banned
Hellsing321 said:
Looks like they finally got Obama/Biden Yard signs up at the Obama store. Time to go crazy!
Click to expand...
Yeah, I ordered mine along with a few other things two days ago, it still says they're processing my order. I also still haven't gotten the car magnet I ordered 2 weeks ago. *sigh*
 
A

adamsappel

Member
Tobor said:
So, explain something to me. I'm 32, I make good money, and I'm active politically(I vote, and I donate), yet I can't be polled. I haven't had a land line in years. Most of my peers don't have one either. Do they have another way to collect data beyond land lines? What happens in 4 more years, as land line numbers have shrunk even further?
Click to expand...
Whatever happened to this in regards to Ron Paul? Libertarians were swearing he was going to have a much bigger impact at the actual primary voting, because his younger, Internet- & cell phone-centric fanbase was underrepresented. Was his polling accurate with his voter results?
 
T

TDG

Banned
We're only debating it indirectly. Although I disagree with him, I understand Gaborn's logic. I just think he should be consistant, and not support a Libertarian until the candidate does not stray from Libertarianism in any way, and the LP is sure to capture congress, at which point true Libertarian policy could be easily put in place.
 
S

Stoney Mason

Banned
adamsappel said:
Whatever happened to this in regards to Ron Paul? Libertarians were swearing he was going to have a much bigger impact at the actual primary voting, because his younger, Internet- & cell phone-centric fanbase was underrepresented. Was his polling accurate with his voter results?
Click to expand...

To be fair the side that is behind always says that. I remember reading about the cell phone demo back in 2004 with Kerry and how that was going to win it for him. I think Jimmy Breslin at the time predicted as much. My memory for the the most part is Paul never really over exceeding polling expectations.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Stoney Mason said:
To be fair the side that is behind always says that. I remember reading about the cell phone demo back in 2004 with Kerry and how that was going to win it for him. I think Jimmy Breslin at the time predicted as much. My memory for the the most part is Paul never really over exceeding polling expectations.
Click to expand...

I think the stronger Obama case is the fact that the "likely" voter models are ignoring the new registrants. Whether or not they actually vote is a question, but if they do Obamas numebrs will be several points better than the polls.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
adamsappel said:
Whatever happened to this in regards to Ron Paul? Libertarians were swearing he was going to have a much bigger impact at the actual primary voting, because his younger, Internet- & cell phone-centric fanbase was underrepresented. Was his polling accurate with his voter results?
Click to expand...

They have multipliers they can use to cover that. Similar to how NPD simulates Walmart sales for games, they make an estimation based on their knowledge of how many young people don't have landlines. They take their results for younger people in their poll, then use that data to realign the data.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/amandascott/gG5XWF

I just finished watching this and I must say it was a pretty amazing speech. It's good to hear some actual concrete plans about what a candidate will actually try to do about the economy once elected. We got McCain saying everything is fundamentally good and that he will set up a committee (in other words, pay some people to do research on a question we already know the answer to). How can anyone, at this point, support McCain over Obama on the economy?

Has Obama's speech been getting much play in the media today? How are the respective networks covering it? What are the pundits saying about it?
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Zefah said:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/amandascott/gG5XWF

I just finished watching this and I must say it was a pretty amazing speech. It's good to hear some actual concrete plans about what a candidate will actually try to do about the economy once elected. We got McCain saying everything is fundamentally good and that he will set up a committee (in other words, pay some people to do research on a question we already know the answer to). How can anyone, at this point, support McCain over Obama on the economy?

Has Obama's speech been getting much play in the media today? How are the respective networks covering it? What are the pundits saying about it?
Click to expand...

Part of it was broadcast, they cut it off about 15 minutes in because McCain's speech was only 15 minutes. Makes no sense, but that's what they did. It was more put out there for the future of the campaign, not the newscycle.
 
T

The_Joint

Member
Gaborn said:
Numble - First because I don't intend on the Supreme Court to grant marriage rights, I believe we can do it from a grass roots effort in state courts and eventually win the right on a federal level as well, though a federal solution should be a final step. Second because as I said a court has to have jurisdiction over an issue, and as long as we're dealing only with state law without presenting a federal question there's nothing for the Court to decide.

TDG - I think Barr has basically the right idea, yes. I'd say I probably agree with Barr about as much as is possible on economics.
Click to expand...

I think you're sadly misguided on that. Study the history of the ERA (Equal Rights Amendment). Since that failed at the national level there's been fights in several states that amount to a hill of beans in the face of a Constitutional Amendment. And since the ERA died the fortunes of women wax and wane each election cycle depending on which party wins what. That's been about 30 years son. Check out what the current SCOTUS has been doing for women's rights lately. I think your absolutist position has twisted your thinking around, in fact, I know it has; you believe a McCain/Palin win would further gay rights. That's delusional.
 
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