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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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I saw this article on some research done by Brendan Nyhan (Who wrote All the presidents spin). I found this fascinating, and really explains the "Wagons drawing closer" effect that occures when Palin is criticised.

Political scientists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler provided two groups of volunteers with the Bush administration's prewar claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. One group was given a refutation -- the comprehensive 2004 Duelfer report that concluded that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction before the United States invaded in 2003. Thirty-four percent of conservatives told only about the Bush administration's claims thought Iraq had hidden or destroyed its weapons before the U.S. invasion, but 64 percent of conservatives who heard both claim and refutation thought that Iraq really did have the weapons. The refutation, in other words, made the misinformation worse.

A similar "backfire effect" also influenced conservatives told about Bush administration assertions that tax cuts increase federal revenue. One group was offered a refutation by prominent economists that included current and former Bush administration officials. About 35 percent of conservatives told about the Bush claim believed it; 67 percent of those provided with both assertion and refutation believed that tax cuts increase revenue.

In a paper approaching publication, Nyhan, a PhD student at Duke University, and Reifler, at Georgia State University, suggest that Republicans might be especially prone to the backfire effect because conservatives may have more rigid views than liberals: Upon hearing a refutation, conservatives might "argue back" against the refutation in their minds, thereby strengthening their belief in the misinformation. Nyhan and Reifler did not see the same "backfire effect" when liberals were given misinformation and a refutation about the Bush administration's stance on stem cell research...

Reifler questioned attempts to debunk rumors and misinformation on the campaign trail, especially among conservatives: "Sarah Palin says she was against the Bridge to Nowhere," he said, referring to the pork-barrel project Palin once supported before she reversed herself. "Sending those corrections to committed Republicans is not going to be effective, and they in fact may come to believe even more strongly that she was always against the Bridge to Nowhere."

Proving once again, there's some republicans that you just can't argue with. :lol

http://www.brendan-nyhan.com/blog/2008/09/corrections-res.html
 
Cheebs said:
Well to be fair that was the 80's, A ton of Democrats white and black voted Reagan.

That is true for the white middle class but blacks still voted in the 80 percentile range against Reagan back then so being a black republican was/is still a demographic oddity number wise.
 

Cheebs

Member
A girl at my dad's work got to workout beside Barack Obama the other day. She was at a Ballies on a treadmill one morning and he came in and got on the treadmill next to her.

Apparently she found it really weird to see Obama fiddling around with a comcast controller trying to find ESPN on it's channel guide because it's such a normal thing to do. lol
 

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
ShOcKwAvE said:
McCain Economic Ad

I love his new slogan at the end of the ad! It's so original and powerful.
There is so much that is flat out wrong with that ad. The tax increases are only on those who make $250,000 or more. The wasteful spending they are referring to is not wasteful if it benefits the overwhlming majority of Americans who are struggling today. And using a shadow being cast over an infant. Well, that is just fear-mongering.

Rather than actually citing quotes from Obama or quotes from his plans, the McCain campaign just pulls out the same old tired Republican scare tactics that rallies the uninformed who are scared of change and scared some other American might actually have a chance to make as much or more money than them. Time to knock these idiots off of the top of the pile; 8 years is enough!
 
ShOcKwAvE said:
McCain Economic Ad

I love his new slogan at the end of the ad! It's so original and powerful.

lame...


I wish Obama would do an ad showing government spending increases under the last few administrations to combat GOP talking points. I really think he could finish off Mccain with some really hard hitting ads.
 

FightyF

Banned
lawblob said:
There is a black girl in one of my classes who says she is a Republican & McCain supporter. My brain could barely compute what she was saying.

I know that it is unrealistic to think blacks, or any group, will vote purely based on identity politics. But still, I can't help but think that if you are a black American, and after all this time you finally have a chance to vote for a black President, but you don't because you think he will 'raise your taxes,' what the fuck is wrong with you?


Kinda funny you bring that up. I was googling for some answer to a question on the best ratio of size to quality for mp3s...and I go to "Yahoo Answers", I browse around to see a political question, and some girl says she's voting McCain because "Obama is going to raise taxes". I know I shouldn't be wasting my time with these people, but I was interested in what she thought of the reality of the situation, that Obama is only raising it for the rich, so I link to a graphic from CNN that demonstrates this and email it to her telling her that only the rich will be taxed more, whereas "people like us" (heheh) will have it cut.

This was her reply:
Not sure where you got this picture from or even how accurite it is, but there are far more things I'm against that Obama is for. Like partial abortions for one. Or pulling our troops out to soon. Saying he'll side with the muslims if things don't go his way. Decrease in pay for the military and their family's. Showing me some stupid picture you dug up isn't going to sway my vote.

Which just proves the point I made earlier around a month ago, there are a whole lot of idiot McCain supporters out there. Like, really stupid, stupid people.

The sort of people that make the idea of a democracy look bad. The sort of people that will ruin the world for all of us. The sort of people that really make me think that this...

idiocracy.jpg


...is proof that a time machine exists, that Mike Judge owns it, and that he decided to make a documentary.
 

gcubed

Member
Stoney Mason said:
lame...


I wish Obama would do an ad showing government spending increases under the last few administrations to combat GOP talking points. I really think he could finish off Mccain with some really hard hitting ads.

McCain is in a tailspin right now and with Obama back in the lead in the national polls, he should keep the good stuff until later in the campaign... election day is still a ways away, you dont want to desensitize people this early
 

Tobor

Member
Stoney Mason said:
lame...


I wish Obama would do an ad showing government spending increases under the last few administrations to combat GOP talking points. I really think he could finish off Mccain with some really hard hitting ads.

Exactly. Nows the time to hammer that message home. They should do an animated version of that "fiscal conservative" comic.
 

Keylime

ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎγλοÏÏον καί ÏεÏδολÏγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
I want to join everyone in bashing retarded Republican voters, but I just can't help but think that Obama has the exact same fervent support from people who don't know what the hell they're talking about, either.
 

Cheebs

Member
RubxQub said:
I want to join everyone in bashing retarded Republican voters, but I just can't help but think that Obama has the exact same fervent support from people who don't know what the hell they're talking about, either.
Obviously a huge chunk of people supporting him support him on superficial reasonings only. But what can you do? They are on the right side at least.
 

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
FightyF said:
This was her reply:

Not sure where you got this picture from or even how accurite it is, but there are far more things I'm against that Obama is for. Like partial abortions for one. Or pulling our troops out to soon. Saying he'll side with the muslims if things don't go his way. Decrease in pay for the military and their family's. Showing me some stupid picture you dug up isn't going to sway my vote.

Which just proves the point I made earlier around a month ago, there are a whole lot of idiot McCain supporters out there. Like, really stupid, stupid people.

It's not so much that she's stupid. It's that she's looking for an excuse. That last line convinces me.
 

FightyF

Banned
rSpooky said:
Oh no my baby is in danger!! Mccain and Palin ....Save me!!

Heh, this is proof of what I was saying before too. Using fear and scare tactics to get votes. I mean, you can be scared of someone's policies, especially if they are harmful, but to show a baby with the lights going out on it, obviously is misleading. It's the babies that are sleeping on $100,000 dollar bills that have to worry, really.

Charron said:
It's not so much that she's stupid. It's that she's looking for an excuse. That last line convinces me.

The fact that those are her "excuses" is evidence that she is stupid.
 
gcubed said:
McCain is in a tailspin right now and with Obama back in the lead in the national polls, he should keep the good stuff until later in the campaign... election day is still a ways away, you dont want to desensitize people this early


You gotta put your heel down on the head of a snake and crush it to use some analogy I think I read somewhere. ;)

A lot of people sort of think it's to Obama's advantage to be relatively even but I think it's too his advantage to be ahead but just stay aggressive. I think it makes people more and more comfortable with him and puts Mccain in a position of having to over-reach to scramble back ahead.

Just arm chair analyzing though. The debates will change the equation somewhat anyway.
 

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
RubxQub said:
I want to join everyone in bashing retarded Republican voters, but I just can't help but think that Obama has the exact same fervent support from people who don't know what the hell they're talking about, either.
Yes, but at least our candidate has a VP pick that doesn't cite being able to see another country from her shore as foreign policy experience. We all have retards in our parties but at least we don't have one as a VP pick. ;)
 
Just to add onto the UHC debate here (since I missed most of it).

If you take a look at life expectancy around the world, I would say that there is a strong correlation between higher life expectancy and UHC.

From the CIA World Factbook, here is the list of life expectancy by country:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html

1 Andorra 83.53
2 Macau 82.35
3 Japan 82.07
4 Singapore 81.89
5 San Marino 81.88
6 Hong Kong 81.77
7 Canada 81.16
8 France 80.87
9 Sweden 80.74
10 Switzerland 80.74
11 Australia 80.73
12 Guernsey 80.65
13 Israel 80.61
14 Iceland 80.55
15 Anguilla 80.53
16 Cayman Islands 80.32
17 New Zealand 80.24
18 Italy 80.07
19 Gibraltar 80.06
20 Monaco 79.96
21 Liechtenstein 79.95
22 Spain 79.92
23 Norway 79.81
24 Jersey 79.65
25 Greece 79.52
26 Austria 79.36
27 Virgin Islands 79.34
28 Malta 79.30
29 Faroe Islands 79.29
30 Netherlands 79.25
31 Luxembourg 79.18
32 Montserrat 79.15
33 Germany 79.10
34 Belgium 79.07
35 Guam 78.93
36 Saint Pierre and Miquelon 78.91
37 United Kingdom 78.85
38 Finland 78.82
39 Isle of Man 78.80
40 Jordan 78.71
41 Puerto Rico 78.58
42 European Union 78.51
43 Bosnia and Herzegovina 78.33
44 Bermuda 78.30
45 Saint Helena 78.27
46 Cyprus 78.15
47 United States 78.14

I've bolded the ones with some form of UHC systems as listed by wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_health_care

I'm sure there are others on the list that also implement some form of UHC (someone needs to cross check).
 
RubxQub said:
I want to join everyone in bashing retarded Republican voters, but I just can't help but think that Obama has the exact same fervent support from people who don't know what the hell they're talking about, either.

I try not to overly begrudge people for who they are voting for. People vote for people all the time based on demographics and personality issues. I do go after people who try to use facts and arguments though to couch their biases behind a transparent wall of lies.
 

Keylime

ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎγλοÏÏον καί ÏεÏδολÏγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
Cheebs said:
Obviously a huge chunk of people supporting him support him on superficial reasonings only. But what can you do? They are on the right side at least.
Agreed, I just think uneducated voters need to be not allowed to vote in general.

An uneducated vote is more dangerous than the wrong one in the grand scheme of things. Just a simple test on each candidate's policies will do (with very obvious answers so those who have been paying attention can vote without a problem).

Fuck...just a litmus test question would suffice:

Barack Obama is going to raise taxes on:

A) Every man, woman and child (and is currently investigating the taxation of our pets)
B) The upper 1% of American workers
 

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
FightyF said:
The fact that those are her "excuses" is evidence that she is stupid.

Oh I'm not saying she's not stupid. Just that there's more going on than raw stupid.
 

Barrett2

Member
CharlieDigital said:
Just to add onto the UHC debate here.

If you take a look at life expectancy around the world, I would say that there is a strong correlation between higher life expectancy and UHC.

From the CIA World Factbook, here is the list of life expectancy by country:


1 Andorra 83.53
2 Macau 82.35
3 Japan 82.07
...
...
...
47 United States 78.14
.


Allow me to pre-emptively regurgitate the phony Republican talking point on this one - Those numbers are misleading, because the United State's health care system is SO GOOD that we try to save many people that other countries health care systems wouldn't even try to save... thats why the numbers are so low, because American health care is so high-tech that we try to save everyone! USA! USA!
 
RubxQub said:
Agreed, I just think uneducated voters need to be not allowed to vote in general.

An uneducated vote is more dangerous than the wrong one in the grand scheme of things. Just a simple test on each candidate's policies will do (with very obvious answers so those who have been paying attention can vote without a problem).

Fuck...just a litmus test question would suffice:

Barack Obama is going to raise taxes on:

A) Every man, woman and child (and is currently investigating the taxation of our pets)
B) The upper 1% of American workers

Bah screw litmus tests. If you're an American you should be born with the right to vote. If the citizenry isn't bright enough to make the right calls then perhaps the problems with a country are far more dire than their leaders.
 

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
On the whole, the population is generally more misinformed and susceptible to lies and half-truths than it has ever been. The erosion of the press, the erosion of our education system, the erosion of the quality of life, and the erosion of confidence in our country has all led to a flood of stupidity. Trying to educate these people in the short term is like reaching out in a rushing river to save them.
 

capslock

Is jealous of Matlock's emoticon
So what happens if a 5 days before the election Osama bin Laden puts out a tape? Anyone else thinking about it?
 

gcubed

Member
Stoney Mason said:
Bah screw litmus tests. If you're an American you should be born with the right to vote. If the citizenry isn't bright enough to make the right calls then perhaps the problems with a country are far more dire than their leaders.


this. Everyone of age should vote and has the right to vote. Stupidity or not. If the more educated feel the less educated is ruining the country, they should take it upon themselves to educate the masses in a better manner.
 
capslock said:
So what happens if a 5 days before the election Osama bin Laden puts out a tape? Anyone else thinking about it?

As always those things reflexively help Republicans in a general sense because they are the "security" party but with the economic meltdown and people generally having 9/11 in the back of their minds I'm not overly scared about it.
 
Stoney Mason said:
Bah screw litmus tests. If you're an American you should be born with the right to vote. If the citizenry isn't bright enough to make the right calls then perhaps the problems with a country are far more dire than their leaders.



Amen.
 
capslock said:
So what happens if a 5 days before the election Osama bin Laden puts out a tape? Anyone else thinking about it?

That's why Obama needs to keep this trend and this swing in his favor as a bulkhead against that. If he's over fifty, and he's convinced enough people of his viability, that wouldn't be enough to stop him.
 

SpeedingUptoStop

will totally Facebook friend you! *giggle* *LOL*
capslock said:
So what happens if a 5 days before the election Osama bin Laden puts out a tape? Anyone else thinking about it?
What if it ends with "I'm Barack Obama and I support this message"? :O
 
gcubed said:
this. Everyone of age should vote and has the right to vote. Stupidity or not. If the more educated feel the less educated is ruining the country, they should take it upon themselves to educate the masses in a better manner.

LOL, as if it's that easy? I mean, we've still got folks right here on GAF -- whom even after we've presented fact, after fact and refuted lie, after lie -- are going to vote McCain for reasons that are anything but logical and these same folks still buy into some of the talking points...It's one thing if you're ideologically opposed to liberalism (JD, Gaborn, et al), but it's another thing entirely when you take the Republican talking points hook, line, and sinker.

We've had posters in the OT actually use "Barack Hussein Obama" as if to emphasize that he's un-American or Muslim. We've heard stories about how friends and coworkers won't vote for him because they think he's a traitor and a Muslim. Stupid elitist white folk get on TV and say they won't vote for him because he's "elitist". It's insane! It's one thing to note vote for him based on ideological differences, it's a whole other thing to not vote for the guy because of lies, racism, or general idiocy.

And I think that the folks on GAF generally have a higher IQ and than the public at large (at lest in OT :lol)

So yeah, some of these issues aren't easy to overcome.
 

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
gcubed said:
this. Everyone of age should vote and has the right to vote. Stupidity or not. If the more educated feel the less educated is ruining the country, they should take it upon themselves to educate the masses in a better manner.
Yeah, I'll get right on that. Let me see if I can take some more of my time and money (that isn't going to taxes), take some time off of work and time away from my family to do what our educational system used to be able to do.

The problem is that every election, the stupidity in this country becomes more self-evident in the short-term before an election. Any efforts to educate these people are dismissed by the pundits on the opposing sides as catering and whatnot thus cheapening their effectiveness which results in the rallying of the morons behind their respective flags. Then after the election, a good percentage of people are depressed while a lot of the idiots pile onto each other in the proverbial end zone (leaving their Bush-Cheny '04 stickers on their cars for 2 years after the election) before resuming their previous posture of just going through life, visiting Wal-mart 1.3 times a week, stopping by church, watching a football game, eating some fast food, watching a lot of television, and yelling at our teachers because they aren't spending enough time with their precious kids.
 
Hitokage said:
Did you see the Obama Campaign budget for Florida alone? They still need that money.
So you're saying that I can't whistle innocently and pat myself on the back for already having done my part? Well, I guess I'll end up donating again sooner, rather than later.
 
I usually don't like posting opinionated pieces from blogs, but since Trump enorsed McCain and the whole "cutting taxes creates jobs" myth.......

http://rigmastft.blogspot.com/2008/07/debunking-mccains-myth-that-tax-cuts.html

So do tax cuts for the wealthiest of our citizens, as John McCain often promises, create jobs for the normal member of the electorate, when compared to the economic plans that are not as reliant on tax cuts, as Barack Obama has espoused?

Almost unequivocally, the answer is no.

1. For one, as Paul Krugman mentioned last week in a column in the NY Times, George W. Bush's tax cuts have created a mere 5 million jobs, not even enough to meet the pace of population growth. On the other hand, President Clinton's administration created 22 million jobs, despite an economic policy that did not rely on the mythical tax cuts often espoused by John McCain. In June 2003, according to United for a Fair Economy, George W. Bush's 2003 tax cuts, which the Administration firmly alleged would create at least 5 million jobs, in fact created a mere 2.6 million jobs, 1.6 million less than would have been created naturally in the absence of President Bush's "economic stimulus." McCain's notion that tax cuts are the best way to create jobs, is already debunked given the statistics presented by Paul Krugman.

2. In addition, Clinton achieved the robust job growth without gutting the federal treasury, as Ronald Reagan did during his rash of tax cuts in his first term. Reagan apologists love to claim that "Reagan tax cuts reinvigorated the economy", as Milton Friedman once asserted, but these tax cuts did nothing but aggrandize both the federal budget deficit and enrich those already wealthy at the expense of the working class. McCain's tax policies would only exacerbate the inherent inequality in the Reagan and Bush 43 policies. These facts prove that tax cuts, in contrary to what neo-liberal acolyte McCain likes to tell you, that the negative aspects of indiscriminate tax cuts, far outweigh any of the purported gains.

3. McCain's theory of tax policy also rests on the flimsy logic that once the rich find their pockets bolstered by tax cuts, they thus spend it on creating jobs for their workers. Evidence hardly bears out this theory. In fact, the rich are more likely to place their increased wealth in bonds, stocks or savings accounts, none of which provide direct employment to workers. In fact, the windfall received by the wealthiest hardly lead to a discernible increase in consumption, something that would have a marked impact on job creation. Instead, grants or payouts to beleaguered city organizations would have saved many more jobs than giving Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer a greater tax return.

As Robert H. Frank, a Cornell economist, laid out in a Times editorial back in 2005, the tax cuts did not impel entrepreneurs to make new hires, for simple reasons of math. The business owners, even with the newly instituted tax cuts, did not have ample extemporaneous revenue to justify the costs of paying a new worker. The incoming revenue from said tax cuts did not provide sufficient relief for the implicit costs of bringing on a new workers. Obviously, having more money theoretically would permit owners to hire more employees. But, as Frank points out, the tax cuts do not make doing so profitable. Bush and his cadre don't care to specify the difference, and therefore attempt to play it off as having the requisite money for hiring someone is the same as the ability to make a sustained profit. This is yet another example of how fallacious the argument that tax cuts directly lead to jobs really is.

4. Finally, historical analysis has laid out that tax cuts have led both to job creation, and job loss, thereby vitiating the notion of the McCain campaign that tax cuts have a cogent relationship to job creation. 60 years worth of empirical data analysis vividly illustrates that widespread tax cuts both take and add jobs, but that tax cuts have always been responsible for an increase in societal inequality. That's exactly been the hallmark of the Bush Administration; strafing inequality while enriching those already the most well off. They have attempted to hide their avaricious policies in the misleading connection between tax cuts and increased job creation. John McCain has attempted to navigate the same course, and will do so, no matter the facts laid out above.

Given that the conceit that tax cuts for the rich create jobs has been now thoroughly repudiated, it's time to look at why McCain still pursues this line of rhetoric. In essence, his position is one that advocates inequality, unfairness, and discrimination, and as a result, he must cloud it with rhetoric that renders these patently unfair polices palatable to the American public. In order to protect his friends in the corporate world, McCain must offer deceitful rhetoric that does not, in practice, have any effect on the creation of jobs.

Anyone help me out on finding Paul Krugman's article that the author of this article uses for a source? :D
 

Barrett2

Member
TheKingsCrown said:


I think it is safe to say that if WAMU shuts down, our country would instantly nosedive. Once a nationwide retail banking outlet closes, and people no longer have access to their funds, even if the FDIC processes your checks within one month, that is an entire month that millions of people will be without access to cash. That alone would cause a meltdown at the consumer level.

It's tinfoil hat time.
 
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