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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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Barrett2

Member
teruterubozu said:
The Palin pick dragged this whole election down into the abortion/guns/religion debate (as even evidenced here in this thread). I knew this shit would happen sooner or later. Squeeze in some Iraq in the next 50 days and it's 2000/2004 all over again.

Its basically the only way the Repubs could compete. Obama has the 'change' theme and reform theme locked up, and McCain couldn't risk alienating and demoralizing his base, so his campaign went with the safer move of re-igniting the culture wars.

Even this is probably a losing proposition, though. The number of people who self-identify as evangelical Republicans has declined over the last four years. It is a dwindling, not expanding demographic. And given the slim majority that Bush won in 2004 appealing to this group, I think it highly unlikely McCain will find the same success trying to re-create the 2004 magic.

Even with the new polls out today showing a lead for McCain, I just don't see him having a solid enough ground-game to close the deal in November, especially key swing states. The sheer massive amount of people the Obama team has registered & got participating in the primaries is basically a tidal-wave. Come election today, McCain is most likely going down in flames...... POW!
 
lawblob said:
Its basically the only way the Repubs could compete. Obama has the 'change' theme and reform theme locked up, and McCain couldn't risk alienating and demoralizing his base, so his campaign went with the safer move of re-igniting the culture wars.

Even this is probably a losing proposition, though. The number of people who self-identify as evangelical Republicans has declined over the last four years. It is a dwindling, not expanding demographic. And given the slim majority that Bush won in 2004 appealing to this group, I think it highly unlikely McCain will find the same success trying to re-create the 2004 magic.

But it's undeniable that the Palin pick has re-energized the party, a party that looked finished a few weeks ago. It's like they broke the glass in case of emergency.

Also, I don't think the Palin pick is just an appeal to the religious right, it's also a call to ass-kickin' rednecks who like chicks with guns.
 

Barrett2

Member
teruterubozu said:
But it's undeniable that the Palin pick has re-energized the party, a party that looked finished a few weeks ago. It's like they broke the glass in case of emergency.

Also, I don't think the Palin pick is just an appeal to the religious right, it's also a call to ass-kickin' rednecks who like chicks with guns.


True, Palin has re-energized McCain's campaign, but IMO there are three things to remember at this point. (i) Part of the Palin appeal is short term and will fade, (ii) national polls dont' matter at this point, we know Obama is close to victory, the only thing that matters are the small group of swing states and how Obama is fairing there. In some of those swing states, Palin's appeal will be more limited than in traditional red-meat Repub states. (iii) McCain still has a major deficit in organizational size and efficiency. 2008 is probably the first time in many years that the Democrats have the better organized & better motivated ground teams.

As far as the overlap between religious right vs. ass-kickin' rednecks, I think there is a lot of overlap in those groups, not to mention that many of the latter are in states Obama is not competing in to begin with.
 

AniHawk

Member
I really wanna see new polling, but Virginia's looking a lot closer than I thought. I still think it'll come down to CO, but if Obama takes Virginia on November 4, then the night is won. If not, it's going to be a long and nerve-wracking evening.
 

3rdman

Member
teruterubozu said:
But it's undeniable that the Palin pick has re-energized the party, a party that looked finished a few weeks ago. It's like they broke the glass in case of emergency.

Also, I don't think the Palin pick is just an appeal to the religious right, it's also a call to ass-kickin' rednecks who like chicks with guns.
Meh...In poitics, a week is forever. A week from now, the Palin choice will fade as a mere curiosity, the polls will level back to pre-convention levels and the debates will be at the forefront of everyone's minds. In other words, don't worry just yet...If the numbers don't start to level back by the end of the week, then we can start worrying.

In any case, I don't see the big deal about losing the Gallup...doesn't that simply measure the national opinion? I'm much more interested in knowing the polling in the battleground states post-conventions.
 

HylianTom

Banned
AniHawk said:
I really wanna see new polling, but Virginia's looking a lot closer than I thought. I still think it'll come down to CO, but if Obama takes Virginia on November 4, then the night is won. If not, it's going to be a long and nerve-wracking evening.

If I recall correctly, Indiana is one of the first states to close its polls. Networks usually call it in favor of the Republican candidate right away.

In 2000, Bush won by 16% over Gore.
In 2004, Bush won by 21% over Kerry.

Current polling has Obama down by single-digits. If Obama can get within 10%, he's in good shape for the rest of the night. If he's within 5%, he's in great shape. And if he wins, open a bottle of bubbly and start celebrating right away - it'll be a short night.
 

AniHawk

Member
HylianTom said:
If I recall correctly, Indiana is one of the first states to close its polls. Networks usually call it in favor of the Republican candidate right away.

In 2000, Bush won by 16% over Gore.
In 2000, Bush won by 21% over Kerry.

Current polling has Obama down by single-digits. If Obama can get within 10%, he's in good shape for the rest of the night. If he's within 5%, he's in great shape. And if he wins, open a bottle of bubbly and start celebrating right away - it'll be a short night.

I hope Indiana ruins McCain like it did Clinton.

That said, I heart you, Hillary! Please campaign in Indiana for me and Obama xoxoxox.
 

Barrett2

Member
HylianTom said:
If I recall correctly, Indiana is one of the first states to close its polls. Networks usually call it in favor of the Republican candidate right away.

In 2000, Bush won by 16% over Gore.
In 2000, Bush won by 21% over Kerry.

Current polling has Obama down by single-digits. If Obama can get within 10%, he's in good shape for the rest of the night. If he's within 5%, he's in great shape. And if he wins, open a bottle of bubbly and start celebrating right away - it'll be a short night.

I wonder if choosing Evan Bayh as a running mate would have landed IN for Obama?

The more I think about it, John Edwards was a disastrous pick in 2004. He didn't carry his own home-state, he did not make Kerry appear more tough or appealing to independents. Why in the hell did Kerry pick him?
 

AniHawk

Member
lawblob said:
I wonder if choosing Evan Bayh as a running mate would have landed IN for Obama?

The more I think about it, John Edwards was a disastrous pick in 2004. He didn't carry his own home-state, he did not make Kerry appear more tough or appealing to independents. Why in the hell did Kerry pick him?

Young and energetic?

Apparently Minnesota thought enough of him to award him one whole EC vote.
 

Cheebs

Member
Chuck Todd was just on MSNBC and said that Obama fans need to stop freaking out about the USA Today poll that he says NBC's poll that will be out this week he expects will show the race far more stable than USA Today is showing it as.
 

AniHawk

Member
Cheebs said:
Chuck Todd was just on MSNBC and said that Obama fans need to stop freaking out about the USA Today poll that he says NBC's poll that will be out this week he expects will show the race far more stable than USA Today is showing it as.

So when does Chuck Todd get fired for riling up NBC execs?

And when do NBC pollsters get fired for posting undesirable results?
 

JayDubya

Banned
Mandark said:
JD, I've never discussed the humanity of embryos with you, outside of asking you if you'd support the legal implications of treating abortion like murder.

I'm completely aware of the difference between a terminal loss of sentience and the temporary dependency of childhood. I know that we accord some rights to infants based on qualities they will eventually develop if they live that long.

Kay.

But I also realize that we don't accord minors all the rights we do to adults and we let parents do things to their children that would be considered crimes if they did them to another adult. I don't have a problem breaking the Sorites paradox by saying you're a minor one day and an adult the next and I don't have the problem making a distinction between potential human/actual human either.

I also believe in an age of majority, and I believe it should be consistent for all things. No matter where you set it, it will be arbitrary.

However, prior to an age of majority, that does not mean that all your essential liberty is simply gone. Your parents cannot simply murder in your sleep, or do a variety of other awful things to you because you, even as a child, are not property, and you have basic freedoms. Of course, I do wonder just how comfortable anyone can be with just how incredibly arbitrary the magical personhood cave belief is - the fundamental difference between a third trimester fetus (subhuman property) and a minute old newborn (a legal person with a right to life) is geographic.

Also, you can make that distinction, but you're wrong; or at the least, it is not a distinction I recognize. When I oppose abortion, I do not do so to defend the rights of potential humans, I do it to defend the rights of humans. "Potential human" doesn't even make sense.

I'm fine drawing the line at birth because pushing back further means interfering with the mother's body. Pregnancy is a really big fucking deal for the woman involved, even though people who live in developed countries and have never gone through it tend to assume it's just an inconvenience.

Yeah, all the women's body stuff? In one ear and out the other. I have no interest in that side topic. I support gender equity. I support women's rights. That has nothing to do with abortion. Tangential BS coopted by feminist radicals trying to accuse people of misogyny when they have a legitimate concern about the rights of all human beings.

The full humanity of the mother easily trumps the potential future humanity of the embryo for me. I can't give as much weight to a future life that hasn't occurred as I can to someone who already has the memories, thoughts, emotions, and viewpoint that make me empathize with my fellow humans.

Your rights end where another's begin. Both are living human beings, both deserve rights accordingly. All other forms of homicide require significant justification in order to be legal - this one gets a free pass.
 

Cheebs

Member
Hitokage said:
North Carolina was what put Clinton away, and I was among its voters. :D
Eh, I would argue it was Indiana moreso. She was 6-8 points ahead in polls there and won by less than 1%, the week after the Rev. Wright fiasco no less. Obama was always ahead in NC.


AniHawk said:
So when does Chuck Todd get fired for riling up NBC execs?

And when do NBC pollsters get fired for posting undesirable results?
Uh...what?
 

AniHawk

Member
Cheebs said:
Uh...what?

Olbermann and Matthews were replaced by David Gregory for being too opinionated or something on the election coverage. I'm not a tremendous fan of Olbermann, but I like Matthews.

Cheebs said:
Eh, I would argue it was Indiana moreso. She was 6-8 points ahead in polls there and won by less than 1%, the week after the Rev. Wright fiasco no less. Obama was always ahead in NC.

Yeah, they had news events and such scheduled for the next morning and canceled them once the win went to 2% or so.

I'm crossing my fingers for states like North Dakota, Montana, and North Carolina to look worrisome enough that the GOP will need to waste time and money there.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Cheebs said:
Eh, I would argue it was Indiana moreso. She was 6-8 points ahead in polls there and won by less than 1%, the week after the Rev. Wright fiasco no less. Obama was always ahead in NC.
Delegate math. She lost big in NC and the delayed results from Indiana couldn't keep up perception anymore.
 

dasein

Member
McCain takes 4-point lead over Obama in poll

ALBUQUERQUE, New Mexico (Reuters) - Republican John McCain heads into the final stretch of the U.S. presidential campaign with a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama, a USA Today/Gallup poll released on Sunday showed.

The lead was McCain's biggest since January and a turnaround from a USA Today poll taken just before last week's Republican Party convention opened, when the veteran Arizona senator trailed Obama by 7 percentage points.

The new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, showed McCain leading Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, by 50 percent to 46 percent among registered voters with less than two months before the November 4 election.
damn
 

Cheebs

Member
AniHawk said:
Olbermann and Matthews were replaced by David Gregory for being too opinionated or something on the election coverage. I'm not a tremendous fan of Olbermann, but I like Matthews.
It sucks but its only a couple nights a year.

We still get Chris and Keith every night. And tonight Obama is on with Keith but best of all tonight THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW STARTS!
 

AniHawk

Member
dasein said:

Yesterday's numbers:
Thursday: Obama + 2.4
Friday: McCain + 4.2
Saturday: McCain + 7.2
Average: McCain + 3

Today's numbers:
Friday: McCain+4.2
Saturday: McCain+7.2
Sunday: McCain+0.6
Average: McCain+4

Don't worry. It's on its way down and in a hurry. Two more days and that big Saturday will be gone.
 

HylianTom

Banned
JayDubya said:
Kay.
Your rights end where another's begin. Both are living human beings, both deserve rights accordingly. All other forms of homicide require significant justification in order to be legal - this one gets a free pass.

Your personal opinion might think that a fetus is a "living human being," but in a legal sense - which is the only sense that matters here - a fetus is neither "born" nor "naturalized." (see: 14th Amendment)

Suggestion: Congress needs to amend our laws so that we begin issuing birth certificates and social security numbers to fertilized eggs. Until then, it isn't "homicide."
 

Cheebs

Member
AniHawk said:
Yesterday's numbers:
Thursday: Obama + 2.4
Friday: McCain + 4.2
Saturday: McCain + 7.2
Average: McCain + 3

Today's numbers:
Friday: McCain+4.2
Saturday: McCain+7.2
Sunday: McCain+0.6
Average: McCain 4

Don't worry. It's on its way down and in a hurry. Two more days and that big Saturday will be gone.
Where did you get the sunday number?
 

gcubed

Member
seriously though, do any pundits discuss how national polling is all but worthless (whether Obama is up by 5 or down by 5)? When is the next set of battleground state polls due before i get my panties in a bunch?
 

gkryhewy

Member
AniHawk said:
Yesterday's numbers:
Thursday: Obama + 2.4
Friday: McCain + 4.2
Saturday: McCain + 7.2
Average: McCain + 3

Today's numbers:
Friday: McCain+4.2
Saturday: McCain+7.2
Sunday: McCain+0.6
Average: McCain 4

Don't worry. It's on its way down and in a hurry. Two more days and that big Saturday will be gone.

Wasn't this the big, bad USA Today/Gallup poll that was going to have McCain up 10 last night? Good thing the headline is going with registered rather than likely voters.

Also, one good thing about the new Diageo/Hotline poll - it maintained an Obama lead in CNN's poll of polls this morning.

While these national polls are essentially meaningless, it IS important that the "dead heat" or "Obama leading slightly" narratives continue. People want to support a winner.
 

Barrett2

Member
HylianTom said:
Your personal opinion might think that a fetus is a "living human being," but in a legal sense - which is the only sense that matters here - a fetus is neither "born" nor "naturalized." (see: 14th Amendment)

Suggestion: Congress needs to amend our laws so that we begin issuing birth certificates and social security numbers to fertilized eggs. Until then, it isn't "homicide."


Do you have any idea what a terrible proposition this is, or the billions of dollars in lawsuits this would generate each year? I am not even talking about the abortion implications. The sheer amount of litigation this would cause for (i) inheritance disputes, (ii) life insurance contracts, (iii) government benefit payments, (iii) testamentary dispositions, etc..

For every one 'problem' you think you would solve with this idea, you would create ten more problems.
 

HylianTom

Banned
gkrykewy said:
While these national polls are essentially meaningless, it IS important that the "dead heat" or "Obama leading slightly" narratives continue. People want to support a winner.

If Obama's only tied or slightly ahead come Election Day, this might actually be helpful. It'd give a sense of urgency to those who would otherwise think that they can relax and not put-forth any extra effort..
 

HylianTom

Banned
lawblob said:
Do you have any idea what a terrible proposition this is, or the billions of dollars in lawsuits this would generate each year? I am not even talking about the abortion implications. The sheer amount of litigation this would cause for (i) inheritance disputes, (ii) life insurance contracts, (iii) government benefit payments, (iii) testamentary dispositions, etc..

For every one 'problem' you think you would solve with this idea, you would create ten more problems.

It was a smart-ass, sarcastic suggestion. :D
 

Cheebs

Member
AniHawk said:
Just guessing using the averages from the Friday poll fivethirtyeight.com had and working backwards.
The USA Today Gallup poll that had McCain ahead by 4 is not the same as the daily tracking poll. It is done separate so the daily numbers would not match.
 

Barrett2

Member
HylianTom said:
It was a smart-ass, sarcastic suggestion. :D

:lol Gotcha... Oh well, its nice to see that at only 9am I am still capable of dialing up the rage within a matter of seconds.

I consider it all good practice for when I fly home to Utah for the holidays and have to talk politics with the relatives. Might as well hone my senses now!
 

JayDubya

Banned
HylianTom said:
Your personal opinion might think that a fetus is a "living human being," but in a legal sense - which is the only sense that matters here - a fetus is neither "born" nor "naturalized." (see: 14th Amendment)

Suggestion: Congress needs to amend our laws so that we begin issuing birth certificates and social security numbers to fertilized eggs. Until then, it isn't "homicide."

Strictly speaking, yes it is. Homicide is the killing of another human. It does not have to be illegal. There are many forms of legal homicide, including self-defense. Some of those are just. You would have an argument had I used the term "murder," which requires illegality.

And again, you're addressing legal personhood as it currently stands. You can not simply reference what the status quo is as an argument against changing the status quo.

* * *

Also, a slew of comments from the previous page.

polyh3dron said:
Michael Vick is JayDubya's hero.

I'll try to put this to rest real quick since you keep bringing this up.

I said he was a piece of shit, actually, (something you're familiar with) but I also said that I don't necessarily believe anything he did should be illegal. I also said that people should boycott and protest games if he's not fired, which is something I would support myself and take part in had I a) even known who Vick was beforehand, b) knew what team he played for, c) gave any money towards any NFL team let alone the one he worked for.

The crimes were animal cruelty, gambling, and tax evasion. a) Animals do / should not have, nor do they deserve legal rights, as such, I can see no justification for making harming your own animal illegal; b) I'm really not sure how can anyone justify making gambling illegal without appeals to religion or pure stupidity; c) federal taxes are far too high and I don't believe the income tax is just.

thefit said:
BTW I've had my wife read many of the reasons here on why your "pro-life" and "pro-choice", her response? "Your nerd friends should stick to posting stupid cat picture and not trying to decide what the opposite gender should do with their bodies, maybe they'll get laid more if they just stopped telling women what they should do with their bodies whether pro or against"

Great. My wife agrees with me on the topic.

echoshifting said:
So...are we just supposed to ignore Palin's stance on the issue and just kinda keep our fingers crossed she won't move to overturn Roe v. Wade if she ends up in office? When McCain says he thinks Roe v. Wade should be overturned, should we roll our eyes and say "oh great, here's that dumb abortion thing again, who cares."

Like it or not, it's an issue. Defend it or lose it.

I'd love to see someone defend the total pile of detritus that was the Roe v. Wade decision. Plenty of scholars on the left are able to recognize the decision for what it is.

Also, oh noes, federalism, the horror.

Bad decisions based on nothing are bad, whether I agree with them or not. The Lochner era was full of decisions that protected unenumerated rights that I wholly agree with, such that the Supreme Court was an agent of promoting laissez faire capitalism beyond the bounds of the Constitution. I do not approve of that. I would not approve of the Supreme Court banning abortion either. Return the matter to the place it rightfully belongs.

speculawyer said:
Yeah exactly.

However, that could always be a silver lining if McCain wins. If Roe v. Wade were over-turned there might be a lot of people that ignored politics who get involved.

This is one of the reasons why many think abortion is the carrot-on-the-end-of-a-stick for the right. They want to keep it around as an issue to keep their voters voting for them . . . but if they ever actually suceed in outlawing it, they know there may be a huge backlash. Hence it is better for them as that issue that they never suceed on but keep getting voters to vote on. It has been working very well for some 30+ years now.

Cynical. It takes a very long time to overturn even the worst abuses of the Supreme Court. For starters, all the people that voted in favor of the bad decision have to die. And then you have all the whining about stare decisis.

I suppose we'll get the chance to see when and if McCain wins. Personally, I'm getting rather sick of Justice Kennedy holding all the cards in practically every decision. Kelo and Gonzales that I mentioned earlier? If you don't remember, take a wild guess which way the swing voter swung?
 
gkrykewy said:
Wasn't this the big, bad USA Today/Gallup poll that was going to have McCain up 10 last night? Good thing the headline is going with registered rather than likely voters.

Also, one good thing about the new Diageo/Hotline poll - it maintained an Obama lead in CNN's poll of polls this morning.

While these national polls are essentially meaningless, it IS important that the "dead heat" or "Obama leading slightly" narratives continue. People want to support a winner.

Chuck said it best this morning. The campaign schedules show that neither camp thinks they've pulled away in any significant measure.
 

SCReuter

Member
Sorry for my ignorance, but should we be concerned about "vote caging" and other types of voter suppression tactics this year and if so, is there anything the Obama campaign can do to combat them?
 

AniHawk

Member
SCReuter said:
Sorry for my ignorance, but should we be concerned about "vote caging" and other types of voter suppression tactics this year and if so, is there anything the Obama campaign can do to combat them?
Fire. And lots of it.
 

tanod

when is my burrito
blahness said:
from the drudge:
"MSNBC drops Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews from anchor chair... David Gregory will anchor news coverage of the coming debates and election night.... Developing..." :\

That's like your wife/gf says no to sex and then kicks you in the crotch.


Also: LOL at liberal handwringing. Running a campaign that moves from issue to issue and event to event and poll to poll based on the news cycle is a losing one. That's what was mainly wrong with the Kerry campaign. The Obama campaign has a strategy and a plan and overarching themes. There is no reason for all this nonsense.

Stop your whining and get ready to vote. We're gonna need every single one! 58 days! Time to get excited.
 

gkryhewy

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
Chuck said it best this morning. The campaign schedules show that neither camp thinks they've pulled away in any significant measure.

Interesting - what were the details of the comment? I've sworn off morning joe temporarily.
 
gkrykewy said:
Interesting - what were the details of the comment? I've sworn off morning joe temporarily.

Why? It's pretty much the only evenhanded show left that's actually not dead boring.

Chuck said that if that insane USA Today poll was right, you'd see it in the 18 Battleground states and McCain wouldn't be in Missouri today and Obama wouldn't be in Michigan, trying to shore up votes. Both camps know it's a dead heat.
 

Cheebs

Member
Rasmussen numbers are in:

Monday, September 08, 2008
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JayDubya

Banned
Yeesh. Gonna be another late night nailbiter.

I think that's all we're going to have for the foreseeable future. The country is bitterly ideologically divided.
 

HylianTom

Banned
JayDubya said:
Gonna be another late night nailbiter?

I think that's all we're going to have for the foreseeable future. The country is bitterly ideologically divided.

That's what I suspect. For all of that earlier grandiose talk of "expanding the battleground," it's still going to settle on that same small handful of states.

Edit: We'll stay divided until demographic change flips a few states in favor of the Dems. That is, assuming that they can keep their grip on minority voters..
 
JayDubya said:
Yeesh. Gonna be another late night nailbiter.

I think that's all we're going to have for the foreseeable future. The country is bitterly ideologically divided.

yeah, this will be a long hard-fought election.
 
Cheebs said:
Chuck Todd was just on MSNBC and said that Obama fans need to stop freaking out about the USA Today poll that he says NBC's poll that will be out this week he expects will show the race far more stable than USA Today is showing it as.

WSJ/NBC poll? If so, then :D
 

Cheebs

Member
Shiggie said:
I didnt see it posted.
080907DailyUpdateGraph1_s4m7a9.gif
extremely old
 

Soybean

Member
It's in my nature to panic over everything from Wii sales to elections. The Wii's doing fine now, so I can concentrate my handwringing on Obama.
 
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