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[Cheebs]

Rasmussen says Obama has taken a hit from the scandal. They had him up by 10 a few days ago. Now this morning they have Clinton up by 1. First time Clinton lead in a long long time:

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Clinton has gained a statistically-insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 46% to 45%.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Rasmussen says Obama has taken a hit from the scandal. They had him up by 10 a few days ago. Now this morning they have Clinton up by 1. First time Clinton lead in a long long time:

what scandal was this?

 

[maximum360]

what scandal was this?

Indeed. Hillary will still win Pennsylvania but with the discussion tonight and debate on Wednesday Obama will have more than enough of an opportunity to clarify his statements.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

what scandal? sheesh

don't tell me the bittergate shit is now a scandal?

I give up. I'm not following this mess anymore

 

[worldrunover]

what scandal? sheesh

don't tell me the bittergate shit is now a scandal?

I give up. I'm not following this mess anymore

Haven't you heard? Anything slightly resembling a remark that could be construed as somewhat anti-American in some way is now a scandal in politics.

 

[Cheebs]

what scandal? sheesh

don't tell me the bittergate shit is now a scandal?

I give up. I'm not following this mess anymore

The media is more obsessed with this than they were with Wright.

What Obama said was not scandal worthy but the media turned it into a full blown scandal.

 

[AniHawk]

Is the media still pissed off that SNL made fun of them?

 

[Particle Physicist]

Haven't you heard? Anything slightly resembling a remark that could be construed as somewhat anti-American in some way is now a scandal in politics.

only for obama.. i dont see every word of the other candidates getting scrutinized like this..

 

[Cheebs]

Is the media still pissed off that SNL made fun of them?

I think its more in line that Hillary is seen as the "flawed" candidate who has issues so it is not a big deal when she messes up. Obama's image created by the media is that he is Mr. Perfect so if he flubs up one line they got batshit insane.

 

[Farmboy]

I think its more in line that Hillary is seen as the "flawed" candidate who has issues so it is not a big deal when she messes up. Obama's image created by the media is that he is Mr. Perfect so if he flubs up one line they got batshit insane.

I agree. The overreaction would probably not have been this great had Obama not been put on a pedestal. But I think it's too early to judge how big they're making it now that we're still in the middle of the cycle. It doesn't quite feel as big as Wright was yet.

 

[typhonsentra]

And everyone should expect this story to be the main subject of discussion for the coming week. the way Fox is structured, if O'Reilly chooses he can have two segments on the statements every day until the primary if he chooses so unless something big happens expect to hear a lot about this. If there's one positive however it's that polls always bottom out around a week after the initial issue so if he can live through this week I expect to see him bounce back at least a little in time for the 22nd. I'm interested in seeing how Gallup has him doing, one will come out today right?

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

Obama on rural america in 2004, he's the same today as he was yesterday, and even Charlie Rose has similar view.

Nov. 23, 2004

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6oGF3cyHE7M

Here is the full show if anybody is interested.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJut4-dHuV8

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Here is an article that a woman named Sandy wrote about bittergate bullshit,she was also at the event.


http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/hopeandchange/gGBWzl/commentary

 

[Qwerty710710]

Meet the Press just showed what Obama said about people in PA and OH being bitter. I don't see anything demeaning about what he said???? Media and Clinton should shut the fuck up. It's not a big deal.

 

[Branduil]

You guys are surprised that he's taken a hit from this? Really?

 

[XxenobladerxX]

You guys are surprised that he's taken a hit from this? Really?

What fuck is it...

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

Vs.

 

[adamsappel]

Some of you guys need to calm down and quit with the overt personal insults.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Some of you guys need to calm down and quit with the overt personal insults.

What insults?

 

[Guileless]

Have any of you looked back at the list of winning Democratic presidential candidates since FDR? Except Kennedy, who on some issues ran to the right of Nixon, it is a grand total of three centrist Southerners. Sen. Obama looks a lot more Dukakasian now than he did last week. Mike Murphy said on Meet the Press that a lot of people in the Democratic party would like to win the presidency without white working class voters, but they can't.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

 

[Tamanon]

Have any of you looked back at the list of winning Democratic presidential candidates since FDR? Except Kennedy, who on some issues ran to the right of Nixon, it is a grand total of three centrist Southerners. Sen. Obama looks a lot more Dukakasian now than he did last week. Mike Murphy said on Meet the Press that a lot of people in the Democratic party would like to win the presidency without white working class voters, but they can't.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

But that still doesn't answer the question of how Hillary would qualify as a centrist Southerner. I mean sure she can claim to be from the South, she claims many origins, but centrism isn't one of them.

 

[soul creator]

has there been any documented evidence that there is a huge number of the "white working class" who are actually offended? The only thing I've seen is that Fox News story, and the guy didn't seem bothered about it.

I see a lot of people in the media, and rich presidential candidates being offended on their behalf though.

 

[typhonsentra]

Looking at it from the Dukakis angle is a bit of a misnomer though. For starters, Clinton isn't a southerner herself and is unlikely to fair any better than Gore did in 2000, if anything she'd fair worse as he was from Tennessee. Also, there is an advantage for the Dems in this cycle, namely that the Republicans are viewed in a very negative light. McCain was chosen because he's the least like Bush of those running besides perhaps Paul. This quote won't hurt Obama in November anymore than McCain's "Bomb Iran" song will him. If anything he'll have a harder time with that as there's clear video and audio for it. McCain supporters will have to just flash the quote without the audio as it's so crappy, cutting the impact.

 

[Cheebs]

Have any of you looked back at the list of winning Democratic presidential candidates since FDR? Except Kennedy, who on some issues ran to the right of Nixon, it is a grand total of three centrist Southerners. Sen. Obama looks a lot more Dukakasian now than he did last week. Mike Murphy said on Meet the Press that a lot of people in the Democratic party would like to win the presidency without white working class voters, but they can't.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

Then what is Hillary? She is from Chicago and her family was well off income wise, she attended a rich private school growing up as well (Obama also went to a rich private High School)

So she isn't one either.

 

[CoolTrick]

But that still doesn't answer the question of how Hillary would qualify as a centrist Southerner. I mean sure she can claim to be from the South, she claims many origins, but centrism isn't one of them.

Are you kidding me?

She's perceived to be much more centrist than Obama.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

You can say this over and over again -- they don't get it. They refuse to understand why this is a problem.

 

[Cheebs]

Are you kidding me?

She's perceived to be much more centrist than Obama.

She is more liberal on the issues than Obama for the most part ironically. She goes farther than he does on Health Care and so forth.

 

[Tamanon]

Are you kidding me?

She's perceived to be much more centrist than Obama.



You can say this over and over again -- they don't get it. They refuse to understand why this is a problem.

Perceived by who?

 

[CoolTrick]

Perceived by who?

Are you dense? Perceived by the voters.

Why do you think the fact that the Clintons made tens of millions more than Obama didn't gain much traction, but this did?

You need to take a long, hard look at this quote.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

The Obama bubble in this thread is not helping yall see a full picture of the ebb and flow of the campaign.

 

[typhonsentra]

Perceived by who?

Him, I guess.

CoolTrick, Rush and co have laid off Hillary lately but if you've listened to their show before Obama took the lead it was always, always focused on her as the arch-villain of liberalism. It wasn't fair but that's the way she was perceived.

 

[harSon]

Are you dense? Perceived by the voters.

Why do you think the fact that the Clintons made tens of millions more than Obama didn't gain much traction, but this did?

You need to take a long, hard look at this quote.

Because Hillary isn't the front runner.

 

[Tamanon]

Are you dense? Perceived by the voters.

Why do you think the fact that the Clintons made tens of millions more than Obama didn't gain much traction, but this did?

You need to take a long, hard look at this quote.

How does how much money she made have anything to do with being perceived as a centrist? Do you know what the word means?

 

[CoolTrick]

Obama is perceived as being more to the left than Hillary. Hillary may or may not actually be a centrist, but she's more to the center than Obama is in terms of perceptions.

 

[Guileless]

has there been any documented evidence that there is a huge number of the "white working class" who are actually offended? The only thing I've seen is that Fox News story, and the guy didn't seem bothered about it.

I see a lot of people in the media, and rich presidential candidates being offended on their behalf though.

This is part of the bubble. You want documented evidence that something that became public late on Friday has offended working class people? Working class people do not watch political news on Fridays and have media elites setting the context of their views in the Sunday papers. Most of them work varying shifts and do not follow political news closely. This will help Republicans in October as the campaigns fight over the undecided independents in the swing states. They will follow the formula that generally works and portray Sen. Obama as another in the line of elitist liberals who are culturally hostile to the concerns of working class voters. Whether this is true or not doesn't matter, only the perception. And to ignore that this just got a lot easier and start preemptively blaming Bill O'Reilly serves no purpose.

Sen. Clinton is not a centrist Southerner, but she is married to the alpha centrist Southerner, and her people know what they need to do to win a general election.

 

[adamsappel]

What insults?

Because you have been to the church before right? Tell me you ignorant dolt,what did he say that was actually racist?

I would have said "ignorant motherfucker" but I didn't want to get banned like last time.

I'd like to suggest that this posting style would make you a "fucking douchenozzle," but I won't.

I'm only a douchnozzle to people like you. Deal with it.
EDIT: And what the fuck are you bitching about? Get that shit out of my face.

I guess it's mostly Door2Dawn. Calm down, man. Although, he does seem to have drawn Jay out of his post-Ron Paul funk!

 

[Tamanon]

Obama is perceived as being more to the left than Hillary. Hillary may or may not actually be a centrist, but she's more to the center than Obama is in terms of perceptions.

The problem is, everything centrist from her husband's presidency she claims she opposed, and anything liberal was her idea. She's only perceived as more centrist in an already liberal primary, once the general hits, there's no real way to capture that.

 

[schuelma]

The problem is, everything centrist from her husband's presidency she claims she opposed, and anything liberal was her idea. She's only perceived as more centrist in an already liberal primary, once the general hits, there's no real way to capture that.

Not to mention the fact that at least 50% of the country is already against her.

 

[Tamanon]

Is a good point, no matter how many shots she does with random old dudes in Pennsylvania bars, she won't ever be seen as one of the guys like Bill was able to use.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Why is it ok for Hilary, the media, and the GOP to say that working class whites wont vote for Obama but when Obama jokes that these same people may be skeptical of him it's a problem?

I don't understand it at all. The media and political pundits talk about how candidate x or candidate y can only draw certain demographics. This happens ALL THE TIME, so when Obama says it, it's contoversial? WTF??

 

[Particle Physicist]

Sen. Clinton is not a centrist Southerner, but she is married to the alpha centrist Southerner, and her people know what they need to do to win a general election.

if her people completely flubbed the primary.. im not so sure they will be able to handle the general that well..

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Hasn't Obama won more southern states than hillary?

 

[schuelma]

Hasn't Obama won more southern states than hillary?

Yes he has, but many of his margins of victory were because of his dominating the black vote.

 

[Cheebs]

Yes he has, but many of his margins of victory were because of his dominating the black vote.

He has won mostly white rural blue collar states as well.

 

[Particle Physicist]

Yes he has, but many of his margins of victory were because of his dominating the black vote.

and black votes dont count !!!

 

[schuelma]

He has won mostly white rural blue collar states as well.

Yes he has, but those aren't really the voters at issue. It's just a political reality that he hasn't done as well with white voters in the midwest and south.

 

[typhonsentra]

These findings are pretty shocking. On the Clinton vs. Obama polling I could see no change because of the controversy, but it didn't even effect his match-up against McCain in the general? It could change over time but It seems any damage caused by this incident will be pretty minimal. The fall-out after the Wright videos came out was immediate.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

It would be funny as hell if somehow helped obama in the primary;s rather than hurt him.

 

[KarishBHR]

http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/12/carl-bernstein-what-a-hillary-clinton-presidency-look-like/

posted?

 

[schuelma]

These findings are pretty shocking. On the Clinton vs. Obama polling I could see no change because of the controversy, but it didn't even effect his match-up against McCain in the general? It could change over time but It seems any damage caused by this incident will be pretty minimal. The fall-out after the Wright videos came out was immediate.

You need to give it a few days.

 

[Cheebs]

These findings are pretty shocking. On the Clinton vs. Obama polling I could see no change because of the controversy, but it didn't even effect his match-up against McCain in the general? It could change over time but It seems any damage caused by this incident will be pretty minimal. The fall-out after the Wright videos came out was immediate.

Ras had a HUGE shift on saturday. Weird weird weird.

I trust gallup more though mainly because they have pretty graphs.

 

[typhonsentra]

It would be funny as hell if somehow helped obama in the primary;s rather than hurt him.

I've thought about this actually. Well not necessarily him directly, but it has lended credibility to the Huffington Post, since conservative media was forced to cite them in order to attack Obama this time. During the general who knows, it might come in handy.

And Cheebs, Gallup is a more reliable source. At least according to those Survey USA "Grades".