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PoliGAF Interim Thread of Tears/Lapel Pins (ScratchingHisCheek-Gate)

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Triumph

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Violence went down significantly for a time, and the surge did show some progress (let's be real), but you're correct over all. The future doesn't look bright, but of course just leaving won't fix anything either (especially when we have to come back the next year). It's a lose lose situation for the most part
"surge is working" = "we're giving money to Sunnis that were killing us last year"
Doesn't sound like a long term, sustainable solution does it? The drop in violence is DIRECTLY attributable to the fact that the Sunnis in Anbar got sick of killing us and decided to opt into the process at roughly the same time that al-Sadr worked out a ceasefire. You're not stupid, Pee Dee. It would probably take about 400k troops to really pacify that country. That ship has sailed. The country is one day going to be a Shia theocracy, and that's the only realistic scenario. Bummer. Let's try and encourage the moderates in Iran through non-sleazy/militaristic means.
 
Seriously, worrying about who's voting for who now really isn't worth it. Once it's down to the Democratic nominee vs McCain, everything changes. There is plenty of time for debates and other stuff that will show what the nominees are about so saying BLANK GROUP won't vote for BLANK CANDIDATE now is pointless.
 
Triumph said:
"surge is working" = "we're giving money to Sunnis that were killing us last year"
Doesn't sound like a long term, sustainable solution does it? The drop in violence is DIRECTLY attributable to the fact that the Sunnis in Anbar got sick of killing us and decided to opt into the process at roughly the same time that al-Sadr worked out a ceasefire. You're not stupid, Pee Dee. It would probably take about 400k troops to really pacify that country. That ship has sailed. The country is one day going to be a Shia theocracy, and that's the only realistic scenario. Bummer. Let's try and encourage the moderates in Iran through non-sleazy/militaristic means.

I agree: in order to really pacify the country there would need to be a real surge, not a half assed preview version. I certainly don't want to see our presence there greatly increased though.

Since we're going to be there for another year anyway I'd rather just see us start fixing infrastructure and shit; destroying a country for no reason, then leaving it in shambles is against my moral values
 

Evenflow

Member
Evenflow said:
WTF is wrong with the MSM? Obama was giving a brilliant insightful speech on the economy, like I've never heard before(maybe on par with his race speech)and MSNBC cut it off half way through and started talking about Rev Wright. CNN cut it off at the same time and said Obama says nothing new, we will see if Clinton says anything new later today. WTF is this shit? The speech wasn't even halfway over. Do they really think the America people are that dumb don't we don't wanna hear anything actually relevent to this election?

Well here's the full speech Here if anyone cares. It's nice to see a politician able to intelligently speak about something like we are adults. I'm done with the media, ridiculous.
 

v1cious

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Are you really this short sighted or is it simply a ruse? Please tell me how Obama stands a chance in November if even 20-25% of that demographic votes for McCain?

what makes you think they will? at least 8-10% will be Hillary supporters that will either suck it up or not vote at all. the rest were gonna vote for Mccain anyway. also, do you really think voters are gonna care about this stuff in the general when they see the two candidates - a woman or an African American? i predict you will see a surge in voter registration, and it won't be for Mccain. hell some people will vote just to say they made history. we're superficial like that.
 

Triumph

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I agree: in order to really pacify the country there would need to be a real surge, not a half assed preview version. I certainly don't want to see our presence there greatly increased though.

Since we're going to be there for another year anyway I'd rather just see us start fixing infrastructure and shit; destroying a country for no reason, then leaving it in shambles is against my moral values
It doesn't really matter what any of us think or want. Anything we build between now and when we get out will be blown up by someone. That's the truth of it. We just need to GTFO. There's nothing to be salvaged or proven over there that we can't already figure out.

Finally, you and Cheebs need to quit trying to equate this election cycle with other historical examples and recognize that it is it's own beast. Quit trying to look to the past and look at the indicators.
 
I was so mistaken. I thought the slide of Obama vs McCain that's happened the last half of this month actually could be understood without having to spell out more than one of the lopsided results without claims that it was cherry-picking.

Here's six more, from the past few days, besides Missouri's poll out today where McCain is bothering Obamamania by a margin of 50-41, that show that mighty Red State power of Obama at work:

Arkansas (rasmussen)
Obama 27
McCain 43

Alabama (susa)
Obama 35
McCain 62

Missouri (susa)
Obama 39
McCain 53

Kentucky (susa)
Obama 28
McCain 64

Ohio (susa)
Obama 43
McCain 50


North Carolina (susa)
Obama 42
McCain 51


We're gonna be working over the coming month to instituting some measures to make it more difficult to have an account here at MyDD. I'm sure there's many places on the web where people that having nothing better to do than attack other users will be welcome, but not here.

These are just red states, of course, Obama is doing fine in blue states like CA and NY and others... And yes, he can turn it around, this is only March! But this is not a cheerleading blog for either of the candidates, its a political junkie site that doesn't flinch to relay the reality of what's happening. If you can't deal with that and discuss it like an adult, you don't belong here.

And yes, Clinton's numbers, in most of these states are poor as well (though she's ahead in that Ohio one), but haven't tanked as bad as Obama's have the past two weeks. Yu can go to the link and see her numbers. The point of the post though, was to show that Wright has done damage to Obama. Much deeper than anything previous that has been done to him. This isn't "concern trolling", it's reality. Obama didn't deal with Wright correctly (if he possibly could have), and its hurt his standing vs McCain, especially in Red and purple states. If you want to ignore it, go someplace else.
http://mydd.com/

No effect!
 

Cheebs

Member
ugh this is boring. TRIUMPH, PD BOTH PREDICT THE OUTCOMES OF THE REMAINING PRIMARIES.

Mine:

PA:
Clinton - 55%
Obama - 45%

NC:
Obama - 54%
Clinton - 46%

IN:
Clinton - 51%
Obama - 49%

WV:
Clinton - 58%
Obama - 42%

Kentucky:
Clinton - 58%
Obama - 42%

Oregon:
Obama - 52%
Clinton - 48%

Montana:
Obama - 55%
Clinton - 45%

South Daktoa:
Obama - 58%
Clinton - 42%

I am not even attempting Guam or PR.
 

v1cious

Banned
Cheebs said:
ugh this is boring. TRIUMPH, PD BOTH PREDICT THE OUTCOMES OF THE REMAINING PRIMARIES.

Mine:

PA:
Clinton - 55%
Obama - 45%

NC:
Obama - 54%
Clinton - 46%

IN:
Clinton - 51%
Obama - 49%

WV:
Clinton - 58%
Obama - 42%

Kentucky:
Clinton - 58%
Obama - 42%

Oregon:
Obama - 52%
Clinton - 48%

Montana:
Obama - 55%
Clinton - 45%

South Daktoa:
Obama - 58%
Clinton - 42%

I am not even attempting Guam or PR.

Obama was ahead by 15 in the last Indiana poll. also it's near Illinois.
 

syllogism

Member
Obama is going to win Oregon by a larger margin than that, easily

Sometimes the phone rings at 3a.m. in the White House and it’s an economic crisis. And we need a president who is ready and willing to answer that call. But I read Senator McCain's plan which does virtually nothing to ease the credit crisis or the housing crisis. The phone is ringing and he would just let it ring and ring.
- Hillary NC speech excerpt

That reads like parody
 
Triumph said:
"surge is working" = "we're giving money to Sunnis that were killing us last year"
Doesn't sound like a long term, sustainable solution does it? The drop in violence is DIRECTLY attributable to the fact that the Sunnis in Anbar got sick of killing us and decided to opt into the process at roughly the same time that al-Sadr worked out a ceasefire. You're not stupid, Pee Dee. It would probably take about 400k troops to really pacify that country. That ship has sailed. The country is one day going to be a Shia theocracy, and that's the only realistic scenario. Bummer. Let's try and encourage the moderates in Iran through non-sleazy/militaristic means.

Hey, thats not the only depressing outcome! Saudi Arabia and Iran might fight a proxy war with Turkey invading Kurdish Iraq in a civil war with no strong central authority in a sub Saharan African country type of way. I actually think that is what is mostly likely going to happen now, as I can't really see Saudi Arabia let the Sunni triangle get too oppressed under a Shi'ite Theocracy. Plus, Turkey's recent interventions into Kurdish Iraq really can't do anything but possibly be a propaganda strong point for the PKK.
 
How many times did Obama use "invisible hand" in that speech? That's gotta irk some folks here. :lol

Anway, if you missed the speech it went like this: "I'm gonna regulate this. I'm gonna regulate that. Oh, that there needs more regulation. And these things here. Yep, that, that, and that will see more...etc."
 

Triumph

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
BS. mydd *IS* a Hillary cheerleading blog. And again- polls this far out are worthless.

Predictions for the rest of the election season? Ugh. I'm going to go ahead and make my best guess but it's really far out.

PA:
Clinton - 54%
Obama - 46%

NC:
Obama - 59%
Clinton - 40%

IN:
Obama - 52%
Clinton - 47%

WV:
Clinton - 63%
Obama - 36%

Kentucky:
Clinton - 59%
Obama - 40%

Oregon:
Obama - 62%
Clinton - 37%

Montana:
Obama - 60%
Clinton - 40%

South Daktoa:
Obama - 65%
Clinton - 35%
 
Brilliant retort Triumph. Not only does it not address the numbers it manages to distort reality as well.

That's fall-out from Wright, not against just Obama, but also Clinton, and most likely against the Democratic Party in general. It's branding of Democrats Obama, and Clinton, as anti-American.

I've recall seeing some pro-Obama supporters lament that Obama wasn't declared as the nominee already, when the Wright story hit, as then Dean/Pelosi/Reid would have all been able to 'go to bat' for Obama on the news networks. I count our lucky stars that was not the case. It was bad enough that not enough high profile Democrats would go out and throw Wright under the bus.

The politics of acquiescence by liberals to Wright's words continue to amaze me. Today we have some esteemed Theologian Martin Marty Defending Rev. Wright. The lack of distancing from Wright, in general, has already cost our '08 chances deeply in Missouri:

Now Feb
McCain 50 43
Clinton 41 42

McCain 53 42
Obama 38 40


In a month, a 1 point McCain lead over Clinton is now 9, and a lead of 2 by McCain over Obama has become 15 percent. It gets worse in MO. McCain's favorable/unfavorable rating is at 59/40. If McCain already has MO locked up by April, we are in deep trouble.

Nevertheless, I don't think that Obama has been hurt much by Wright in the nomination contest, for a number of reasons. He's already branded himself strongly with most Democrats paying attention, and there's seems too much emotional investment on both sides, for even something as radical as this revelation, to shake up that dynamic much, but the GE match-up is another matter.

Rasmussen's tracking numbers have allowed McCain to reach a double-digit over Obama, 51-41 nationally, for the first time; and over Clinton, 50-43-- which was at a double-digit lead a few days ago. If you just go and look over the numbers of the match-ups, its very easy to see the correlation between the Wright story breaking on the 13th, when both Clinton and Obama were tied with McCain at 44-44, and the widening of the lead by McCain over the past two weeks.

I don't think Clinton bringing up the issue of Wright was a matter of keeping the story alive. The polls show that nearly 90% of Americans already know and have an opinion about it, that's a done deal. Rather, Clinton was belatedly putting some needed distance between herself and Wright.

And spare me the whines about how I'm keeping the story alive. This story had legs the day it appeared, while all the partisans said it was dead by that Friday night. That not enough distance was made from Wright by Obama is what kept the story moving. All I'm trying to do is pull some heads of of the sand to show them the reality they thought existed for the '08 GE landscape has dramatically shifted as a result of Wright. This is March, long ways to go still, but the conservatives have done planted their seeds of smear.
http://mydd.com/
 

Triumph

Banned
siamesedreamer said:
How many times did Obama use "invisible hand" in that speech? That's gotta irk some folks here. :lol

Anway, if you missed the speech it went like this: "I'm gonna regulate this. I'm gonna regulate that. Oh, that there needs more regulation. And these things here. Yep, that, that, and that will see more...etc."
Music to my ears! After all, deregulation has worked swimmingly, hasn't it?
 

human5892

Queen of Denmark
If McCain already has MO locked up by April, we are in deep trouble.
:lol This is fucking ridiculous. MCCAIN HAS NOT BEEN SUBJECT TO ALMOST ANY SCRUTINY. No matter how many times it's pointed out, we still get "analysis" like this.
 

Triumph

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Brilliant retort Triumph. Not only does it not address the numbers it manages to distort reality as well.


http://mydd.com/
RETARD. McCain is running around doing whatever the fuck he wants. That is YOUR GIRL'S fault. Obama could be chillaxing, taking easy shots at McCain. Instead he has to kill Rasputin fifty times over. Once there is a candidate (early May) and real contrasts can be drawn, you know damn well those numbers will tighten up. The only thing those numbers prove is that Hillary is fucking things up for both of them at this point.
 

Cheebs

Member
Triumph said:
BS. mydd *IS* a Hillary cheerleading blog. And again- polls this far out are worthless.
Wanna know why MYDD's owner, Jerome is so pro-Clinton when he wrote a book less than a year before the primary about the greatness of Dean's 50-state strategy?

Apparently he went on a interview for a job in the Obama campaign (Jerome worked for Dean in 2004 and worked for other candidates). He didn't get the job and was pissed off about it.
 

syllogism

Member
How exactly can these mydd posters tell whether it's Wright and not the general bitterness that has caused the shift. Certainly Obama has lost ground among independents, but that's not the only reason.

Quoting this again because it deserves some attention

Sometimes the phone rings at 3a.m. in the White House and it’s an economic crisis. And we need a president who is ready and willing to answer that call. But I read Senator McCain's plan which does virtually nothing to ease the credit crisis or the housing crisis. The phone is ringing and he would just let it ring and ring."
- Hillary NC speech excerpt

Economic crisis at 3am? Perhaps she was joking, but really now.
 

Cheebs

Member
Also to be fair not all of MYDD's front page posters are bad. Jerome is a total obama-hater but Singer (Obama supporter) and Beeton (neutral but seems to slightly lean clinton but attacks her a decent amount) are a good read.
 
Triumph said:
RETARD. McCain is running around doing whatever the fuck he wants. That is YOUR GIRL'S fault. Obama could be chillaxing, taking easy shots at McCain. Instead he has to kill Rasputin fifty times over. Once there is a candidate (early May) and real contrasts can be drawn, you know damn well those numbers will tighten up. The only thing those numbers prove is that Hillary is fucking things up for both of them at this point.

McCain is getting little to no press coverage. You're right, once the race ends his numbers will tighten, but blaming this on Clinton is laughable. First off, she's about to win more than a few states between now and May. The correlation between Obama's falling numbers and the Wright controversy is undeniable; Hillary had nothing to do with his lead among independents evaporating, for instance. He obviously still has a chance to win the presidency but at the end of the day Obama is damaged goods. The "magic" and luster of his campaign died with the Wright story.
 

Cheebs

Member
I don't blame Clinton 100% for this race dragging on. Obama has not yet closed the deal, and that has to be blamed somewhat on his campaign.

If he won NH, the race would have ended then.

If he won one of clintons states on Feb 5th (CA, NJ, MA) the race would have ended then.

If he won texas the race would have ended then. The only way to end this race before june would be an insane upset win in PA, which is not happening.
 

Triumph

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
McCain is getting little to no press coverage. You're right, once the race ends his numbers will tighten, but blaming this on Clinton is laughable. First off, she's about to win more than a few states between now and May. The correlation between Obama's falling numbers and the Wright controversy is undeniable; Hillary had nothing to do with his lead among independents evaporating, for instance. He obviously still has a chance to win the presidency but at the end of the day Obama is damaged goods. The "magic" and luster of his campaign died with the Wright story.
So you're on the record as saying that it's pointless and McCain will win no matter what? Great. You're on record. Get the fuck out of these threads then, as your position is now known and you have nothing else to add.
 

mashoutposse

Ante Up
PhoenixDark said:
Brilliant retort Triumph. Not only does it not address the numbers it manages to distort reality as well.


http://mydd.com/

McCain has picked up similar numbers on both of them -- how can this be characterized as anything but the result of an overly long, overly negative Democratic primary?

You're making a judgment based on who all of the fickle undecideds picked in March?
 

tanod

when is my burrito
HRC said:
Sometimes the phone rings at 3a.m. in the White House and it’s an economic crisis. And we need a president who is ready and willing to answer that call.

And sometimes, when the phone rings at 3AM, I'm sleepy and I mis-speak. I didn't mean to vote for the Iraq war. I was sleep deprived.
 
Triumph said:
So you're on the record as saying that it's pointless and McCain will win no matter what? Great. You're on record. Get the fuck out of these threads then, as your position is now known and you have nothing else to add.

Where the fuck did I say that in this post? I think McCain has a better chance of winning than Obama, but it's not a done deal - as I clearly stated in my previous post. McCains negatives are lower than Obama's, he's very popular among Hispanics, his numbers with independents are high (and haven't taken a dip like Obama's), the war is gaining more support, etc. All those things play in McCain's favor.

Obama would benefit from high voter turnout among blacks and young people, but if he's losing votes from his own party who knows what the effect will be.
 

harSon

Banned
Cheebs said:
I don't blame Clinton 100% for this race dragging on. Obama has not yet closed the deal, and that has to be blamed somewhat on his campaign.

If he won NH, the race would have ended then.

If he won one of clintons states on Feb 5th (CA, NJ, MA) the race would have ended then.

If he won texas the race would have ended then. The only way to end this race before june would be an insane upset win in PA, which is not happening.

It's the media's fault :)
 

Triumph

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Where the fuck did I say that in this post? I think McCain has a better chance of winning than Obama, but it's not a done deal - as I clearly stated in my previous post. McCains negatives are lower than Obama's, he's very popular among Hispanics, his numbers with independents are high (and haven't taken a dip like Obama's), the war is gaining more support, etc. All those things play in McCain's favor.

Obama would benefit from high voter turnout among blacks and young people, but if he's losing votes from his own party who knows what the effect will be.
None of that shit changes the fact that this is March. You can't look at the polls this early and expect to know how shit will go down in November. If you could, John Kerry would be running for re-election and John Edwards would still be talking about mills out there somewhere.
 

syllogism

Member
Rasmussen has Hillary up by 2% again, while Gallup moves the other way

032708DailyUpdateGraph1.gif


Nothing meaningful though and the race will likely stay tied until the end
 

Cheebs

Member
harSon said:
It's the media's fault :)
Erm...what? Obama HAS had 3 opportunities so far to put away this election. He was unable to in NH since Women voters were so pissed off at the idea of Hillary being crushed so easily. He was unable to on super tuesday due to not taking advantage of early voting + hispanics. He was unable to on march 4th due to hispanics.

I am unsure if I am to blame Obama for the hispanic issue. It seems they are just totally unwillingly ready to support him. NH I think he could have seemed to be less cocky "you are likeable enough" and all that.
 

Triumph

Banned
Cheebs said:
Erm...what? Obama HAS had 3 opportunities so far to put away this election. He was unable to in NH since Women voters were so pissed off at the idea of Hillary being crushed so easily. He was unable to on super tuesday due to not taking advantage of early voting + hispanics. He was unable to on march 4th due to Rush Limbaugh fucking things up.

I am unsure if I am to blame Obama for the hispanic issue. It seems they are just totally unwillingly ready to support him. NH I think he could have seemed to be less cocky "you are likeable enough" and all that.
Fixed lol
 

Cheebs

Member
syllogism said:
Rasmussen has Hillary up by 2% again, while Gallup moves the other way

032708DailyUpdateGraph1.gif


Nothing meaningful though and the race will likely stay tied until the end
Awesome. But I think its at the point where we can deem national polls useless. With so few states left and the fact no one is going to open up a GIGANTIC lead, I cant see the sway of national polls. Good, still.

Triumph said:
Fixed lol
yeah I forgot about that, hispanics total distrust of black candidates doesn't help still.
 

mashoutposse

Ante Up
syllogism said:
Rasmussen has Hillary up by 2% again, while Gallup moves the other way

032708DailyUpdateGraph1.gif


Nothing meaningful though and the race will likely stay tied until the end

The next important poll will be after PA. Until then, it's all media-influenced noise.
 

Cheebs

Member
mashoutposse said:
The next important poll will be after PA. Until then, it's all media-influenced noise.
Clinton will get a bump after PA, the winner always does. But there is 2 weeks till IN/NC so it doesnt matter.
 
Cheebs said:
Erm...what? Obama HAS had 3 opportunities so far to put away this election. He was unable to in NH since Women voters were so pissed off at the idea of Hillary being crushed so easily. He was unable to on super tuesday due to not taking advantage of early voting + hispanics. He was unable to on march 4th due to hispanics.

I am unsure if I am to blame Obama for the hispanic issue. It seems they are just totally unwillingly ready to support him. NH I think he could have seemed to be less cocky "you are likeable enough" and all that.

To be fair, he wasn't supposed to win on Super Tuesday, all he had to do was make sure Hillary didn't win with big margins, which he did. The big reason for that the clinton campaign did not plan or spend like it would be a prolonged campaign.
 
Cheebs said:
Erm...what? Obama HAS had 3 opportunities so far to put away this election. He was unable to in NH since Women voters were so pissed off at the idea of Hillary being crushed so easily. He was unable to on super tuesday due to not taking advantage of early voting + hispanics. He was unable to on march 4th due to hispanics.

I am unsure if I am to blame Obama for the hispanic issue. It seems they are just totally unwillingly ready to support him. NH I think he could have seemed to be less cocky "you are likeable enough" and all that.

I never expected Obama to win this race crushingly. He was a fresh face and he was up against the Clintons. I expected the path to the nomination will be a slow and steady, fighting tooth and nail.

It was Hillary that I initially thought would come out dominating. She thought this would be a done deal after Super Tuesday :lol
 

Schattenjäger

Gabriel Knight
PhoenixDark said:
McCain is getting little to no press coverage. You're right, once the race ends his numbers will tighten, but blaming this on Clinton is laughable. First off, she's about to win more than a few states between now and May. The correlation between Obama's falling numbers and the Wright controversy is undeniable; Hillary had nothing to do with his lead among independents evaporating, for instance. He obviously still has a chance to win the presidency but at the end of the day Obama is damaged goods. The "magic" and luster of his campaign died with the Wright story.
Your opinions have the lowest merit out of every poster on this thread.
The Wright story was his biggest obtacle and yet he overcame it with relative ease. You are beyond predictable at this point.
 

mashoutposse

Ante Up
Cheebs said:
Clinton will get a bump after PA, the winner always does. But there is 2 weeks till IN/NC so it doesnt matter.

Yep; I don't see the "momentum" from PA carrying over unless April 22 is a blowout (+15%).
 

mashoutposse

Ante Up
Stepping back from this whole thing, it's unbelievable that she's still actively pursuing a race where a 20-point win in PA puts her in a worse position mathematically.

It's over, but the party is being forced to stick with it so as not to disenfranchise supporters of the losing side. Obama should have won Texas and put things to bed.
 
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