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PoliGAF Interim Thread of USA General Elections (DAWN OF THE VEEP)

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GhaleonEB

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
What's the nature of said teasage?
Just that it's coming.

New survey to include latest McCain-Obama numbers as well as possible effect of Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.

Poll also gauges voter attitudes on experience, honesty, integrity and enthusiasm.


http://thepage.time.com/

Edit: though this is a clue.

The poll also gauged voter attitudes toward Obama and McCain on a raft of issues and characteristics, including which has the right experience to be president and which has more honesty and integrity. And one of the poll's most dramatic findings concerned differing enthusiasm levels among their backers.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/06/la-timesbloombe.html
 

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
scorcho said:
can you stop acting as if the media is a monolithic entity constantly trying to fuck Obama?

also, wouldn't you have considered Russert to be the prototypical Washington 'insider' journalist that you seem content to rail against?

You've been quite the prickly pear lately, haven't you? Don't worry, that grand slam off Johan was not as pathetic as you may think. It's not his fault his arm is in decline.
 

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
bob_arctor said:
You've been quite the prickly pear lately, haven't you? Don't worry, that grand slam off Johan was not as pathetic as you may think. It's not his fault his arm is in decline.
sure. come out with the crosstown insults now that Giambi's greased up porno 'stache steadied your team. opportunist.
 

Tamanon

Banned
Of course McCain's enthusiasm levels will be lower, he's been perceived for years as basically being a RINO. It'd be like if Joe Lieberman won the Dem nomination.
 

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Incognito said:
CFV0624_02240833CC7.png


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d62471d9-b9f8-4274-8312-16c1006a5764

If a Democrat wins my state, that would be fucking incredible.
 

syllogism

Member
Ambinder on B. Clinton:

In politics, Hillary Clinton speaks for the Clinton family now, and aside from her campaign debt, she has no real difficulty supporting Barack Obama privately and publicly.

But Bill Clinton has a beef. A Democrat who has spoken directly to Clinton about his feelings said that the former president remains “miffed” for two reasons. One is that he feels that Obama’s candidacy was essentially an anti-Clinton candidacy; that Obama ran against Clinton’s presidential record at times, implying that it was timeworn, divisive, and damaging to the party while adopting policy positions that seemed to flow directly from the Clinton oeuvre. Why should Clinton embrace a guy who spent the past twelve months bashing him and his accomplishments?

Two: Clinton is convinced that the Obama campaign went out of its way to portray the former president as a racist. Clinton wants a private meeting with Obama to sort these things out; he has reconciled himself to the reality of Obama’s nomination and does not want to sit on the sidelines.

"President Clinton is obviously committed to doing whatever he can and is asked to do to ensure Senator Obama is the next President of the United States," said Matt McKenna, Clinton's spokesperson, in a statement provided to news organizations today.

How does this play out? I don’t sense much of a desire from the Obama campaign to completely placate the former president, but his absence from the campaign trail will be noticed, and I do get the sense that they’re willing to meet him halfway. So – don’t expect a public apology from Obama. Perhaps, at some point, he will murmur some private words of regret, and that’ll be the end of it. After all, as famous as Bill Clinton is for holding grudges, he’s also a guy who forgives.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Obama's discussion with a group of about 100 people here, roughly coincided with an event his McCain was holding on the environment in Santa Barbara, CA and the Illinois senator drew laughter at times as he sought to draw contrasts with his rival, criticizing the Republican's record on clean, renewable energy and his current proposals. He slammed McCain again for proposing a gas tax holiday and for his opposition to the 2005 energy bill that increased investment in renewable energy, saying the Arizona senator had voted against biofuels, solar power, wind power -- “some of the very same projects and businesses he’s highlighting in his campaign.” He seemed to mock McCain for saying yesterday that lifting the moratorium on offshore drilling would have a mainly “psychological impact.”

“A psychological impact. In case you were wondering, that’s Washington-speak for, “It polls well.” Obama said to laughter in the crowd.
“The American people don’t need psychological relief or meaningless gimmicks to get politicians through the next election cycle, they need real relief that will help them fill up their tanks and put food on their table. They need a long-term energy strategy that will reduce our dependence on foreign oil by investing in the renewable sources of energy that represent the future. That’s what the American people need.”
Heh.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/24/1164963.aspx
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
scorcho said:
can you stop acting as if the media is a monolithic entity constantly trying to fuck Obama?

also, wouldn't you have considered Russert to be the prototypical Washington 'insider' journalist that you seem content to rail against?

Nope. Russert was the man. He wouldn't let this poll numbers slide. Too bad what happened. :(
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Edit: gah, that's what I get for doing reading the entire article first. ;p

LA Times/Bloomberg poll is out.

Obama over McCain by 12 points - 15 points when Bob Barr is in the mix.

Newsweek is no longer the outlier - this one backs it up. I'm surprised.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.story


A Times/Bloomberg Poll says that in a two-man contest, 49% of respondents favor Barack Obama, while 37% support John McCain. With Ralph Nader and Bob Barr added to the mix, Obama holds 15-point edge.

Moreover, McCain suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among the conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support. Among voters who describe themselves as conservative, only 58% say they will vote for McCain; 15% say they will vote for Obama, 14% say they will vote for someone else, and 13% say they are undecided.

By contrast, 79% of voters who describe themselves as liberal say they plan to vote for Obama.

Even among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, more than half say they are "not enthusiastic" about their chosen candidate; only 45% say they are enthusiastic. By contrast, 81% of Obama voters say they are enthusiastic, and almost half call themselves "very enthusiastic," a level of zeal that only 13% of McCain's supporters display.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Is there a website that keeps track of McCains's flip flops?, cause i'm loosing track

http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark Nickolas/blog/&blogId=2598

McCain Regarding Gitmo said:
Now, I know that some of these guys are terrible, terrible killers and the worst kind of scum of humanity. But, one, they deserve to have some adjudication of their cases. And there's a fear that if you release them that they'll go back and fight again against us. And that may have already happened. But balance that against what it's doing to our reputation throughout the world and whether it's enhancing recruiting for people to join al-Qaeda and other organizations and want to do bad things to the United States of America. I think, on balance, the argument has got to be--the weight of evidence has got to be that we've got to adjudicate these people's cases, and that means that if it means releasing some of them, you'll have to release them.
 

Tamanon

Banned
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/24/bush-to-filipino-presiden_n_108985.html

PRESIDENT BUSH: Madam President, it is a pleasure to welcome you back to the Oval Office. We have just had a very constructive dialogue. First, I want to tell you how proud I am to be the President of a nation that -- in which there's a lot of Philippine-Americans. They love America and they love their heritage. And I reminded the President that I am reminded of the great talent of the -- of our Philippine-Americans when I eat dinner at the White House. (Laughter.)



President George W. Bush welcomes President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo of the Republic of the Philippines to the Oval Office Tuesday, June 24, 2008, at the White House. The President expressed deep condolences for those affected by Typhoon Fengshen saying, "We, the American people, care about the human suffering that's taking place, and we send our prayers."

PRESIDENT ARROYO: Yes.

PRESIDENT BUSH: And the chef is a great person and a really good cook, by the way, Madam President.

PRESIDENT ARROYO: Thank you.

I'm going to miss the scamp.
 

Mandark

Small balls, big fun!
bob_arctor said:

I read that in the dead tree edition. My favorite part:

Richard Cohen said:
In some recent magazine articles, I and certain of my colleagues have been accused of being soft on McCain, forgiving him his flips, his flops and his mostly conservative ideology. I do not plead guilty to this charge, because, over the years, the man's imperfections have not escaped my keen eye.


Which reminded me of this:

Richard Cohen two weeks ago said:
As for me, I too have been critical of Clinton. My columns, of course, were a model of rational thought and cool analysis, and were based entirely on the issues, such as they were. For a number of reasons, I did not think she should be the Democratic nominee, but I often had more problems with her critics than I did with her. Some of them, clearly, needed to be medicated.

I'd like to think that Cohen's being facetious by needling his own public persona, but I'm not sure that's the case. My best guess is that he's kidding on the square: he's using pompous language for effect but that's also how he actually thinks.

Of course the man is so damn supercilious it might be completely straight. It's like he's determined to live up or surpass the windbag image he has among activist types.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Justin Bailey said:
So why such a disparity between these polls and the daily gallups?
Not sure. Gallup is now the distant outlier. The other daily tracker, Rasmussen, has a slightly large Obama lead as well.
 
Have you seen this . . . Kristol seems to say that Bush will bomb Iran if Bush thinks that Obama will win the election.

Isn't Kristol basically saying "Vote McCain or we will definitely start a war with Iran."?

Why does anyone still pay that man for his lunacy when he has been completely discredited . . . this is the guy who said there was no evidence of any Sunni v. Shia tension in Iraq.

These guys have gone from "vote for us or the terrorists will kill you" to "vote for us or we will start another war!" What a-holes.
 
Funky Papa said:
I think this is thread worthy.

Bush To Filipino President: "I Am Reminded Of The Great Talent Of The -- Of Our Philippine-Americans When I Eat Dinner At The White House"

I think the Onion would have rejected that as a headline . . . but there it is in reality. Amazing.
 

bishoptl

Banstick Emeritus
So freeing. :lol

Bush has provided me with more hilarity over the past year than all of the rest of your janky presidents combined. Hey, I wonder if Michelle Malkin will unhook her lips from his ass long enough to protest his demeaning treatment of her people in that quote?

Keep on dancin', Georgie.
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I think I'll take the honour as the resident euro twat. The title is too long to turn it into something snarky, though.

Edit: There you go. Have a ball.
 

Tamanon

Banned
bishoptl said:
So freeing. :lol

Bush has provided me with more hilarity over the past year than all of the rest of your janky presidents combined. Hey, I wonder if Michelle Malkin will unhook her lips from his ass long enough to protest his demeaning treatment of her people in that quote?

Keep on dancin', Georgie.

I'm pretty sure Michelle Malkin actually thinks she's white now.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Justin Bailey said:
So why such a disparity between these polls and the daily gallups?

Good question. And it looks like Chris Matthews and his whole panel think a terrorist attack would help mcCain.

Even though Obama is tied with McCain over Iraq. Ask those same people on TV that Iraq question 1 month ago and I bet they ALL would have said McCain would be a easy winner over Iraq.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
bishoptl said:
So freeing. :lol

Bush has provided me with more hilarity over the past year than all of the rest of your janky presidents combined. Hey, I wonder if Michelle Malkin will unhook her lips from his ass long enough to protest his demeaning treatment of her people in that quote?

Keep on dancin', Georgie.

I don't get it. Why is this so bad yet so funny?
 

Cheebs

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Not sure. Gallup is now the distant outlier. The other daily tracker, Rasmussen, has a slightly large Obama lead as well.
Uh... Gallup is +3, Rasmussen is +5. That is basically the same.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Cheebs said:
Uh... Gallup is +3, Rasmussen is +5. That is basically the same.
Over the past five days, Gallup has had Obama's lead ranging from 2-3 points. Over the same five days, Rasmussen has ranged from 3-7 points, and consistantly higher than Gallup. Thus my use of "slightly larger" when describing Rasmussen's lead for Obama over Gallup.

Your "basically" is my "slightly larger".
 

Tamanon

Banned
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0608/Color_Oregon_blue.html#comments

A fairly stunning new ad from Oregon's Republican senator Gordon Smith leaves little doubt as to which way the wind is blowing there.

In the ad, Smith, running hard away from Bush, associates himself at length and explicitly with Obama.

"Who says Gordon Smith helped lead the fight for better gas mileage and a cleaner environment?" the female narrator asks. "Barack Obama."

The ad shows Obama's face and an image of his website.

"I approve working together across party lines and this ad," Smith closes.

Smith was an early McCain endorser.

UPDATE: Obama spokesman Bill Burton responds:

Barack Obama has a long record of bipartisan accomplishment and we appreciate that it is respected by his Democratic and Republican colleagues in the Senate. But in this race, Oregonians should know that Barack Obama supports Jeff Merkley for Senate. Merkley will help Obama bring about the fundamental change we need in Washington.

Wow, you know times are weird when a Republican running for office actually tries to tie himself to the Dem nominee.
 

Cheebs

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Over the past five days, Gallup has had Obama's lead ranging from 2-3 points. Over the same five days, Rasmussen has ranged from 3-7 points, and consistantly higher than Gallup. Thus my use of "slightly larger" when describing Rasmussen's lead for Obama over Gallup.

Your "basically" is my "slightly larger".
Yeah but it is still far closer to Gallup than the LA Times or Newsweek.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Tamanon said:
I'm pretty sure you're arguing against a point that GhaleonEB hasn't even tried to make.
This. Seriously, WTF are you reading Cheebs? I said Rasmussen had Obama up slightly more than Gallup did. That's akin to claiming the sky is blue on a clear day. And you're making it sound like I said the sky is orange and raining monkeys. It's not.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
the disgruntled gamer said:
I don't know what the fuck people like about McCain when it comes to terrorism. Also, holy shit @ the 32% who prefer him on the economy. Seriously, wtf. Was this poll taken at a mental institution?
One of my friends is like that. It's clear he has no knowledge of specific policies, because when I asked him why he likes McCain's economic policy, he said "well, he's for the free market and is against government regulation, and I like that more."

:/
 

Mandark

Small balls, big fun!
I think the point is that a poll can't be "the distant outlier" if another poll is just a couple percent away from it.
 

Cheebs

Member
GhaleonEB said:
This. Seriously, WTF are you reading Cheebs? I said Rasmussen had Obama up slightly more than Gallup did. That's akin to claiming the sky is blue on a clear day. And you're making it sound like I said the sky is orange and raining monkeys. It's not.
You said Gallup was the lone outlier now, I was saying Rasmussen is in line with Gallup which means it is not a lone outlier.

Mandark said:
I think the point is that a poll can't be "the distant outlier" if another poll is just a couple percent away from it.
Bingo. The Fox News poll that was +4 that was released like 3 days ago was in line as well.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Mandark said:
I think the point is that a poll can't be "the distant outlier" if another poll is just a couple percent away from it.
Poor wording on my part then. What I meant was, the furthest outlier. As in, the one showing Obama with the smallest lead (that I've seen, at any rate).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Cheebs said:
You said Gallup was the lone outlier now, I was saying Rasmussen is in line with Gallup which means it is not a lone outlier.

Bingo. The Fox News poll that was +4 that was released like 3 days ago was in line as well.
Then you should have said that. Now please go nitpick someone else's posts.
 

Cheebs

Member

GhaleonEB

Member
Cheebs said:
I say we need a third poll that is +10 before we can really consider that where the race is, too many like Fox, USA Today, and the daily trackers have it close in the same polling period.
Oh, I'd agree with that. There's a clear schism between this new one and the Newseek and, well, most of the other polls, which show support between 3-6 points. The gap seems to be in the weighting, but I'll wait for fivethirtyeight to dissect this one (looks like they will tomorrow). But it's notable because the Newsweek poll now has company, and I never thought that would happen.

But either way, I'm more interested in the state polling. fivethirtyeight had an interesting take on SUSA's Indiana poll:

Indiana, SurveyUSA has Obama with a 1-point lead on John McCain. A couple of other polls, including one conducted by SurveyUSA in April, had also shown a lead for Obama. But that polling had been done in the run-up to the state's primary, and the results frankly seemed aberrant. For Obama to continue to be battling Indiana to a draw is fairly impressive, and puts a state in play that the Republicans probably never expected they'd have to defend.

Apart from Obama being a Midwesterner, the explanation for his results in Indiana may be as simple as this: the Democrats had never really bothered to compete in the state before, until the presence of an important primary there forced them to. Certainly, Indiana has been reliably Republican for a long time -- in 1992, Bill Clinton won every state bordering Indiana, but did not win Indiana itself. But that should also have provided a hint that there is nothing about Indiana that makes it demographically impossible for the Democrats; Democrats have found success in each of its neighbors. If Obama can hold his deficit in Southern Indiana to 10-12 points, tie in the small, industrial towns of Northern Indiana, and rack up 20+ point margins in Indianapolis and the Gary/Hammond region bordering Chicago, he can win the state.
 

eclipze

Member
I've rarely ventured over to this area of the forum, but did anyone of you just catch Olbermann's Worst people? Absolutely hilarious! Watching that clip of a younger Bill O`Reilly flip out dropping the F-bomb was fuckin hilarious. :lol
 
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