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[Cheebs]

Are you serious? Bush's approval rating hovers around 20%, the economy is in shambles, an unpopular war is killing Americans and Iraqis daily, and Obama can't open any significant leads on his republican opponent who he has tried (and constantly failed) to paint as Bush's heir. Please explain to me how that signifies the race is magically a done deal now.

The GOP hasn't been in this bad of shape since post-watergate in 1976. BTW Carter lead by over 20% over Ford in the summer of '76...

 

[Branduil]

The AFL-CIO didn't waste any time.

Garbage like this is why I'll never join a union.

 

[Branduil]

Are you serious? Bush's approval rating hovers around 20%, the economy is in shambles, an unpopular war is killing Americans and Iraqis daily, and Obama can't open any significant leads on his republican opponent who he has tried (and constantly failed) to paint as Bush's heir. Please explain to me how that signifies the race is magically a done deal now.

That is pretty odd. By all rights Obama should be decimating McCain in the polls. He'll probably still win but the fact that he's no leading by more seems to indicate he's not doing something right.

 

[TDG]

That is pretty odd. By all rights Obama should be decimating McCain in the polls. He'll probably still win but the fact that he's no leading by more seems to indicate he's not doing something right.

People just don't buy the McCain=Bush2 message, a lot of people still believe the "John McCain maverick" message, and a lot of people just go with their party's guy.

 

[scorcho]

he's not doing something white indeed.

 

[PhoenixDark]

The GOP hasn't been in this bad of shape since post-watergate in 1976. BTW Carter lead by over 20% over Ford in the summer of '76...

I don't think the health of the GOP will have anything to do with the results. The entire election is about Obama and whether people are ready to elect him; as the article states polls show people WANT a democratic candidate, they just apparently don't want Obama (or aren't totally sold on him).

All indicators point to a democratic win/possible blowout yet Obama can't gain a lead. He's up by what, 3-5 points in Michigan and Ohio right now. Those don't strike me as firm holds, and losing both states plus Florida would almost guarantee a loss...and from what I see that's very possible

If he was running against any republican other than McCain he'd probably be winning

 

[tanod]

they just apparently don't want Obama

Republicans

(or aren't totally sold on him).

Everybody else.

 

[scorcho]

If he was running against any republican other than McCain he'd probably be winning

my eyes must be deceiving me then.

if this election has become a referendum on Obama, then McCain's maverickosity has no bearing on this election. his many gaffes, the dubious ties of his advisors, and his sneering disposition matters little to the public.

 

[APF]

We haven't had the conventions yet, or a single debate. People still don't even know there's an election coming up, and those who do are sick of the meaningless persnickety coverage. If Obama doesn't get a convention bounce, or starts to lose debates, then worry.

 

[Kusagari]

Are you serious? Bush's approval rating hovers around 20%, the economy is in shambles, an unpopular war is killing Americans and Iraqis daily, and Obama can't open any significant leads on his republican opponent who he has tried (and constantly failed) to paint as Bush's heir. Please explain to me how that signifies the race is magically a done deal now.

Bush's approval rating means nothing. Bush would still probably get 35-40% of the vote if he ran again. Most Republicans feel like it's their duty to vote Republican no matter what.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

For reference, the difference in popular vote percentage between first and second place finishers in presidential race in recent elections.

2004: 2.4%
2000: -0.5%
1996: 8.5%*
1992: 5.6%*
1988: 7.8%
1984: 18.2%
1980: 9.7%

*significant third party effect

 

[polyh3dron]

People still don't even know there's an election coming up,

Really?

 

[PhoenixDark]

my eyes must be deceiving me then.

if this election has become a referendum on Obama, then McCain's maverickosity has no bearing on this election. his many gaffes, the dubious ties of his advisors, and his sneering disposition matters little to the public.

Perhaps a poor choice of words. As I said though, that's not a significant lead by any stretch of the imagination, especially when you dig deeper and realize he has weak "leads" in Michigan and Ohio; granted McCain has a weak "lead" in Florida as well, but I think it's pretty safe to say he'll take that crazy place, just as Obama will most likely win Penn. despite his weak leads there.

Yea it's still early but all the signs are in the dem's favor yet...

 

[The Librarian]

People still don't even know there's an election coming up,

wat

 

[scorcho]

as APF said parsing this much out of polling data before debates have even started yet is a waste of energy. should Obama be polling higher considering the general tenor of the country? sure, but he's also a black freshman Senator who a sizable number negatively view as some inscrutable Muslim.

and as much as we'd like to think we're a post-racial society that isn't the case.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

as APF said parsing this much out of polling data before debates have even started yet is a waste of energy. should Obama be polling higher considering the general tenor of the country? sure, but he's also a black freshman Senator who a sizable number negatively view as some inscrutable Muslim.

and as much as we'd like to think we're a post-racial society that isn't the case.

Not even that, I don't think they are taking into account the people that are registering for Obama.

 

[bob_arctor]

as APF said parsing this much out of polling data before debates have even started yet is a waste of energy. should Obama be polling higher considering the general tenor of the country? sure, but he's also a black freshman Senator who a sizable number negatively view as some inscrutable Muslim.

and as much as we'd like to think we're a post-racial society that isn't the case.

Exactly.

 

[APF]

I'll just say I think the microscopic focus a lot of you folks have on this race (obsessing over daily polls, etc), plus the perceived need to discuss the election 24/7 warps your perspective a great deal re: how most Americans deal with politics and elections. We've come a looong way from literal stump speeches and seven-hour long debates.

 

[scorcho]

onto more positive news, barring the death of the top twenty Dems on Obama's shortlist it looks like Hillary Clinton will not be named VP. she's been given the Tuesday slot at the national convention, Bill and the VP Wednesday, then Obama Thursday.

woo.

 

[GhaleonEB]

onto more positive news, barring the death of the top twenty Dems on Obama's shortlist it looks like Hillary Clinton will not be named VP. she's been given the Tuesday slot at the national convention, Bill and the VP Wednesday, then Obama Thursday.

woo.

Yup. It was a way for them to confirm it won't be her in advance, while still giving her some spotlight.

 

[avatar299]

as APF said parsing this much out of polling data before debates have even started yet is a waste of energy. should Obama be polling higher considering the general tenor of the country? sure, but he's also a black freshman Senator who a sizable number negatively view as some inscrutable Muslim.

and as much as we'd like to think we're a post-racial society that isn't the case.

heh, people might not like Obama becuase of his lack of accomplishments or tax policy, not becuase he is black.

Honestly you guys are more obsessed with race than most Americans are.

 

[dead souls]

as APF said parsing this much out of polling data before debates have even started yet is a waste of energy. should Obama be polling higher considering the general tenor of the country? sure, but he's also a black freshman Senator who a sizable number negatively view as some inscrutable Muslim.

and as much as we'd like to think we're a post-racial society that isn't the case.

This is all correct.

Also people need to understand that a small 3-5% lead in national polls can easily result in a landslide in the electoral college come november.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Honestly you guys are more obsessed with race than most Americans are.

We're on a message board talking about politics every day. Just as the gamers on the gaming side are more hard-core than the masses buying Wii Fit, the PoliGAF crew are more in tune and interested than the mainstream public. I think everyone here is pretty aware of that.

I mean, duh.

 

[bob_arctor]

I'll just say I think the microscopic focus a lot of you folks have on this race (obsessing over daily polls, etc), plus the perceived need to discuss the election 24/7 warps your perspective a great deal re: how most Americans deal with politics and elections. We've come a looong way from literal stump speeches and seven-hour long debates.

Exactly this as well. You and scorcho do the talking, I'll do the nodding.

 

[avatar299]

We're on a message board talking about politics every day. Just as the gamers on the gaming side are more hard-core than the masses buying Wii Fit, the PoliGAF crew are more in tune and interested than the mainstream public. I think everyone here is pretty aware of that.

I mean, duh.

:lol you are more in tune with politics, yet the only reasoning you guys have for Obama not killing Mccain in meaningless polls is "everyone's part of the klan! RUNNN!!"

 

[maynerd]

I'll just say I think the microscopic focus a lot of you folks have on this race (obsessing over daily polls, etc), plus the perceived need to discuss the election 24/7 warps your perspective a great deal re: how most Americans deal with politics and elections. We've come a looong way from literal stump speeches and seven-hour long debates.

Who's obsessing?

gO-bama!

 

[The Librarian]

Who's obsessing?

gO-bama!

Will Obama ever go higher than nine points?

 

[scorcho]

:lol you are more in tune with politics, yet the only reasoning you guys have for Obama not killing Mccain in meaningless polls is "everyone's part of the klan! RUNNN!!"

race is a part of it. i have no idea if it is a dominating factor or not (though i suspect it is tied into the whole 'he's not one of us/inscrutable' argument), but i find it pretty ignorant to argue that Obama's race plays no factor at all in segments of the electorate.

 

[Incognito]

i'll take a "small" 5pt win any day of the week and twice on sunday. that's at least 300 electoral votes. and last time i checked, all was needed to win was 270.

 

[bob_arctor]

:lol you are more in tune with politics, yet the only reasoning you guys have for Obama not killing Mccain in meaningless polls is "everyone's part of the klan! RUNNN!!"

Ah, Mr. Smug Laughy Guy, always so condescending. Always. Good shit, avatar299. Must be hard to pull that off.

 

[The Librarian]

i'll take a "small" 5pt win any day of the week and twice on sunday. that's at least 300 electoral votes. and last time i checked, all was needed to win was 270.

What's considered a "landslide" victory going by electoral votes?

 

[mckmas8808]

We haven't had the conventions yet, or a single debate. People still don't even know there's an election coming up, and those who do are sick of the meaningless persnickety coverage. If Obama doesn't get a convention bounce, or starts to lose debates, then worry.

WTF!? APF the 100% logical one? You know you have too many scared people when APF comes through as the most logical one.

I agree 1000%. And why hasn't more people asked....what would happen if McCain lost by 4%?

 

[Incognito]

I think if McCain lost by 4% Obama would be the president.

Could be wrong, though...

 

[tanod]

WTF!? APF the 100% logical one? You know you have too many scared people when APF comes through as the most logical one.

I agree 1000%. And why hasn't more people asked....what would happen if McCain lost by 4%?

I'm sure there is still a group of people who don't know that Obama has secured the nomination against HRC.

 

[TDG]

We haven't had the conventions yet, or a single debate. People still don't even know there's an election coming up, and those who do are sick of the meaningless persnickety coverage. If Obama doesn't get a convention bounce, or starts to lose debates, then worry.

This is true. We are in the dog days of the election season. Everything we are seeing from the media and the polls is about to seriously change (at the conventions.)

 

[StoOgE]

i'll take a "small" 5pt win any day of the week and twice on sunday. that's at least 300 electoral votes. and last time i checked, all was needed to win was 270.

Exactly, Clinton v Dole and reagan v Carter are both considered landslides, but the popular vote total wasnt that large of a gap.

 

[PhoenixDark]

The point is that such a small margin suggests there's no consensus and isn't breathing room; I'm not simply saying "lol he's only up by 4%, he can't win." And more importantly it suggests Obama is under performing considering the country's current political climate which favors his party

 

[gkryhewy]

The point is that such a small margin suggests there's no consensus and isn't breathing room; I'm not simply saying "lol he's only up by 4%, he can't win." And more importantly it suggests Obama is under performing considering the country's current political climate which favors his party

But he's overperforming relative to other black guys with "hussein" in their names :lol

 

[maximum360]

Wow. I'm hearing that CNN put it out there this morning that the Obama camp might have known about the Edward's scandal before JE came clean. When I think they can't get any worse CNN finds a new low daily.

I seriously think the only voice of reason there is Cafferty. I didn't always agree with Geoffrey Toobin but at least he seemed impartial as part of the evening panel with Gloria "McCain is a Maverick" Borger leaning to the right.

 

[mckmas8808]

The point is that such a small margin suggests there's no consensus and isn't breathing room; I'm not simply saying "lol he's only up by 4%, he can't win." And more importantly it suggests Obama is under performing considering the country's current political climate which favors his party

The point is its WAAAAY too early to throw in the "why isn't Obama leading by more points" question and seriously being nervous.

People thinking a black freshman senator with the name Barack Huessian Obama to be leading by 20 points nationally is straight stupid. He is running against a well established white military ex POW war hero.

 

[tanod]

Wow. I'm hearing that CNN put it out there this morning that the Obama camp might have known about the Edward's scandal before JE came clean. When I think they can't get any worse CNN finds a new low daily.

Doesn't that make the campaign smart?

 

[TDG]

Wow. I'm hearing that CNN put it out there this morning that the Obama camp might have known about the Edward's scandal before JE came clean. When I think they can't get any worse CNN finds a new low daily.

Uh, how is that bad? That seems very, very likely to me, especially if they were once considering JE to be Obama's running mate.

 

[Door2Dawn]

Rassumen now has Obama leading McCain 48 to 46.

But like that dude up top said,these daily tacking polls a meaningless.

 

[tanod]

November 11th, 2008 media narrative: Barack Obama won the popular vote by 5 points and got 330 electoral votes. Why wasn't the margin of victory higher? Does he even have an electoral mandate?

 

[numble]

People still don't even know there's an election coming up

Yeah, I remember knocking on the door of some apartment in Las Vegas, 19 year old showed up at the door and said he doesn't want to register to vote and will do it "next election." When I started telling him how important it is this time, etc etc, he was like, "Wait, Obama's not president yet? Okay, I'll register."

 

[Keylime]

I remember knocking on the door of some apartment in Las Vegas, 19 year old showed up at the door and said he doesn't want to register to vote and will do it "next election." When I started telling him how important it is this time, etc etc, he was like, "Wait, Obama's not president yet? Okay, I'll register."

Obama must be doing a damn good job of acting presidential if people just assume he already is...and somehow...apparently...that is bad for him since people will not vote, assuming he's already won.

...

:lol

 

[Door2Dawn]

SurveyUSA poll has McCain leading Obama by 48 to 47 in Virgina.

 

[maximum360]

On Politico: http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonat...d_turns_McCains_cabin_into_Tara.html#comments

Picking up on blogger and Schumer hopes that Obama will play the class card, David Axelrod offers this riff to Adam Nagourney:

“Obviously, his strategists met on the portico of the McCain estate in Sedona — or maybe in one of his six other houses — and decided what line of attack they were going to use."

To those who have been there -- and, yes, the press was shamefully seduced with RIBS there earlier this year -- the portrayal of a "portico" on the "McCain estate" is laughable.

While new-agey and cosmopolitan Sedona is just down the road, McCain's cabin is at the base of a dusty valley in a fairly remote part of Arizona. There is a long deck that overlooks a stream and man-made (and stocked) pond, but no Monticello-like columns are to be found.

To go after McCain on the ranch would be akin to dinging Reagan for Santa Barbara or Bush for Crawford -- places that are more bucolic than glamorous.

Dems would be better advised to focus on the "six other houses" part of it, and specifically McCain's set-up on the upscale Coronado Island just across the water from San Diego.

Many Americans have weekend cabins. Not so many condos on the Pacific Ocean.

This must be the other (more like alternate universe) America John Edwards was referring to.

So I guess we even have the McCain defense force on Politico.

 

[Tamanon]

To be fair, that's the Republican blogger, but yeah that part of it made me chuckle. Sure, many Americans have weekend cabins, they're called houses they can't sell.

 

[NewLib]

On Politico:



This must be the other (more like alternate universe) America John Edwards was referring to.

So I guess we even have the McCain defense force on Politico.

Where I live, tons of people have lake cabins/lake houses. Hell, I know some people who could at best be defined as lower middle-class that have lake cabins.

Property just doesnt cost as much as it does in other places.