PoliGAF Interim Thread of USA General Elections (DAWN OF THE VEEP)

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Tamanon said:
Eh, the fetus bill you're talking about seemed like it was unnecessary at the time, the state already had a law on its books saying that any aborted fetus that was still alive afterwards legally required care. It's just really a smear, you don't think Hillary of all people would've beat this into the ground if there was any substance?
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I dont know if Hillary could really go on an attack about abortion stuff even if she wanted too. She would open herself up to attack by groups who oppose anything that could "restrict abortion".

Its a sticky issue politically because her party is known for its abortion rights stance though I really dont think she has any party loyalties just who gives her the best shot at power.
 
She wasn't afraid to hit Obama on other facets of the abortion issue. That's kinda one reason she was able to garner such a high female vote.
 
Tamanon said:
She wasn't afraid to hit Obama on other facets of the abortion issue. That's kinda one reason she was able to garner such a high female vote.
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I had to go back and look at some of her attacks. It seems she tried to claim he was soft on Abortion rights by doing what he seemed to do best in Illinois. Vote Present rather than vote yes or no.

She couldn't attack him on the survivor bill because she voted yes on it at the Federal level. If anything her vote would be viewed by groups as willing to concede ground while he stood firm so there was no way she was gonna touch it
 
Lemonz said:
Tom Daschle and Evan Bayh were called and told they will not be 'it' according to several sources. I don't have anything on Tim Kaine -- other than insiders tell me that Obama has decided against him -- mostly because he doesn't help check off the foreign policy box or experience box. I just don't hear much about Kathleen Sebelius so am not counting her as a strong candidate.


http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2008/08/why_radio_silen/
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Its Sebelius. :D Everyone the obama veep team talk to had great things to say about her. Not to mention he loves her.
 
Deus Ex Machina said:
Its Sebelius. :D Everyone the obama veep team talk to had great things to say about her. Not to mention he loves her.
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And her governing style and philosophy is directly in line with Obama's message. She's got the resume, the integrity, the experience and doesn't come from Washington so she supports the change mantra. She would be ideal.
 
GhaleonEB said:
And her governing style and philosophy is directly in line with Obama's message. She's got the resume, the integrity, the experience and doesn't come from Washington so she supports the change mantra. She would be ideal.
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Won't do any of us any good if they don't win in November.
 
I see having Kathleen as having two Obamas. Have Obama do big groups/little groups, and have Kathleen be specifically targeted towards Republican states. She's already convinced Kentucky and proved her worth, she'd be excellent as a spokesperson. She just needs a bit of tutelage from Obama in public speaking, and she's good to go.
 
laserbeam said:
I had to go back and look at some of her attacks. It seems she tried to claim he was soft on Abortion rights by doing what he seemed to do best in Illinois. Vote Present rather than vote yes or no.

She couldn't attack him on the survivor bill because she voted yes on it at the Federal level. If anything her vote would be viewed by groups as willing to concede ground while he stood firm so there was no way she was gonna touch it
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What ground would she have conceded?
 
It was another fairly bad polling day for Barack Obama, and we are getting to the point where it would be hard to describe the election as anything other than "too close to call". But most of that has been driven by the rapidly tightening national numbers. This set of state polling isn't quite as bad as it looks for Obama:

2779358783_04d64f5614_o.png


The most disappointing for result for Obama is probably in Indiana, where SurveyUSA has John McCain pulling into a 6-point lead after having trailed by a single point last month. Why so disappointing? Because Obama has been investing heavily in Indiana while McCain has not.
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Conversely, in Florida, Obama may be within tipping point range in a close election. McCain's 2-point edge is a reversal of the 2-point advantage that Obama held in the prior Rasmussen poll -- but on the other hand, versions of the Rasmussen poll in the spring had shown a couple leads in the double digits for McCain. Which way Florida goes next may depend on Obama's VP selection; it is one of those states where Joe Biden might help him, as undoubtedly could Hillary Clinton.
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/todays-polls-819.html
 
reilo said:
Won't do any of us any good if they don't win in November.
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And if they do? Somewhere along the line it seems like people became obsessed with the idea of a VP strictly as a way to bump polling numbers. I'm not suggesting that's not a valid consideration, but it's not the only one, or even the primary one. No VP candidate is going to make numbers skyrocket over the long run; at least not anyone on the commonly accepted short list. Even picking someone popular in a swing state doesn't mean that state is signed, sealed and delivered.

If we are going to end up with someone lending a voice and affecting policy decisions in the White House for 4-8 years shouldn't we be hoping for whoever will be best able to help govern and solve problems? If you start second guessing who will or won't cause a statistical bump in the GE nobody appears ideal. Better to pick someone who will function well within an administration and hope that somewhere out there are intelligent voters paying attention who will recognize the value of such a choice.
 
GrotesqueBeauty said:
And if they do? Somewhere along the line it seems like people became obsessed with the idea of a VP strictly as a way to bump polling numbers. I'm not suggesting that's not a valid consideration, but it's not the only one, or even the primary one. No VP candidate is going to make numbers skyrocket over the long run; at least not anyone on the commonly accepted short list. Even picking someone popular in a swing state doesn't mean that state is signed, sealed and delivered.

If we are going to end up with someone lending a voice and affecting policy decisions in the White House for 4-8 years shouldn't we be hoping for whoever will be best able to help govern and solve problems? If you start second guessing who will or won't cause a statistical bump in the GE nobody appears ideal. Better to pick someone who will function well within an administration and hope that somewhere out there are intelligent voters paying attention who will recognize the value of such a choice.
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Of course I'd want the best two people for the job, but that's not sadly, how others vote. It is a game of chess. You have to sacrifice some pawns and even knights in order to win the game.

If Obama picks Sebelius and they win in November, then believe me, I would have no problem with that. But even after these past 8 years, the electoral map is stingy and it requires smart, calculated moves to put Obama over the top.

Picking Sebelius would be a huge gamble that Obama is taking.
 
My stepfather made a good point of why the VP could really be Biden. If it were any of the guys from Indiana, Virginia, etc... the swing states, then he would introduce the candidate there. But since Biden is from Delaware, its not worth being there so they're doing it in Illinois.
 
Deus Ex Machina said:
Its Sebelius. :D Everyone the obama veep team talk to had great things to say about her. Not to mention he loves her.
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I hope so! :D

Blakero said:
My stepfather made a good point of why the VP could really be Biden. If it were any of the guys from Indiana, Virginia, etc... the swing states, then he would introduce the candidate there. But since Biden is from Delaware, its not worth being there so they're doing it in Illinois.
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Hate to take the wind out of your sails, but I think no matter where the candidate is from they are going to do it in Illinois, since it's where Obama announced his candidacy.
 
thekad said:
Fuck, it's Biden.

Fuck.
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?

EDIT: Holy shit. Watching Maher on Larry King now, and hahaha. They show a clip of Religulous, where he interviews a senator discussing whether the senator believes in evolution or not [according to the senator, the scientific community is split on that topic.. erh?] and the senator goes: "Well, you don't have to pass an IQ test to be in the senate." And there is this huge minute of awkward silence between them.
 
Why is sports reporting better than political? Cenk uses this point sometimes in a bit different context than this but whatever.

In sports the people/places that constantly talk wacky rumors become a joke. The ones that know their stuff you have to listen to cause they are almost never completely wrong. This Veepstakes nonsense is just a smorgasbord for the talking heads to nibble at for weeks on end. And now the morons are down to the bone so they have to take chomps at it to scoop the other morons as this nears a merciful end.
 
ViperVisor said:
Why is sports reporting better than political? Cenk uses this point sometimes in a bit different context than this but whatever.

In sports the people/places that constantly talk wacky rumors become a joke. The ones that know their stuff you have to listen to cause they are almost never completely wrong. This Veepstakes nonsense is just a smorgasbord for the talking heads to nibble at for weeks on end. And now the morons are down to the bone so they have to take chomps at it to scoop the other morons as this nears a merciful end.
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I'm not cenk, but this is my take on it:

Political "news" shows are focused on how the politics of the day will be seen by voters, and what effect it will have on "the game" of politics - a "game" played mostly by the network news stations. They rarely, if ever, discuss whether or not what politicians say is true. For example, take the faith forum at Saddleback. Even though most pundits offhandedly acknowledged that McCain spent most of his answers dodging questions and reverting to stump speech mode, they still declared him the winner based on his use of quick soundbites (that the media uses to sell stories) and the crowd reaction. They are also spending this entire weak foaming at the mouth, trying desperately to leak Obama's VP and undermine his announcement process before his supporters get the text. In fact, one of the main reasons Obama fell out of favor with the cable news networks is because he HASN'T been playing their game, hasn't trusted them. It's all just a game to these politics newscasters.

Sports news, I wager, just reports what happens and the sportscasters actually go into whether a guy played good or not, whether a coach made good decisions, whether a trade was well done or retarded. They form opinions based on the "facts on the ground" and not how OTHER people should view the facts.

This is the problem with the 24 hour "news" networks. They have discussed the game of politics so much that they have become the game.
 
worldrunover said:
The group was called women for Obama. He doesn't need to appease a group called women for Obama.

It's going to be Biden, you'll all have to suck it up. I personally like the choice.
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I don't mind Biden but I think that if you're going to pick an attack dog VP with baggage, a long history in Washington and that voted in favor of the war in Iraq, you might as well pick Hillary and enjoy a 10-15 point bump that would last through November.
 
what's the story here?

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUKN1948672420080820?sp=true
In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.
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I've had enough Dyack talk for a bit, time to enter the relatively civil world of US politics.
 
Kildace said:
I don't mind Biden but I think that if you're going to pick an attack dog VP with baggage, a long history in Washington and that voted in favor of the war in Iraq, you might as well pick Hillary and enjoy a 10-15 point bump that would last through November.
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So true. The media may say "if obama picks a woman why not Hillary" It should be 'why pick a male attack dog when you can have HRC
 
eznark said:
what's the story here?

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUKN1948672420080820?sp=true


I've had enough Dyack talk for a bit, time to enter the relatively civil world of US politics.
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I saw this at the top of MyYahoo. What the hell is going on? I knew Obama wasn't polling well recently but this is pretty shocking. The VP pick and the convention can't come soon enough.


reuters/zogby poll said:
McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.
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This is pretty much inconprehensible. How in the hell?

reuters/zogby poll said:
Obama's support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives.
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I'm sure the convention will help those numbers. It better.
 
Lemonz said:
Tom Daschle and Evan Bayh were called and told they will not be 'it' according to several sources. I don't have anything on Tim Kaine -- other than insiders tell me that Obama has decided against him -- mostly because he doesn't help check off the foreign policy box or experience box. I just don't hear much about Kathleen Sebelius so am not counting her as a strong candidate.


http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2008/08/why_radio_silen/
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I like this idea of them announcing who it's not gonna be. Yay for both of these. Boo for Clark not being considered (if true). BOOO, I say.
 
VanMardigan said:
This is pretty much inconprehensible. How in the hell?
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Celeb ad + Pundit chatter that reinforces McCain's message (drill, drill, drill) and never mentions Obama's tax breaks. Not that surprising, it doesn't do you a lot of good to have the best plan for the economy when no one talks about it.
 
Kildace said:
Celeb ad + Pundit chatter that reinforces McCain's message (drill, drill, drill) and never mentions Obama's tax breaks. Not that surprising, it doesn't do you a lot of good to have the best plan for the economy when no one talks about it.
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Don't forget that he was a POW!
 
I think a lot of it is Lou Dobbs and the hour of garbage he spews every night. At least with other rightwing talking heads like Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity everyone knows they're Republican sock puppets. Lou Dobbs has a lot of blue-collar Democrats convinced he's actually an independent.
 
grandjedi6 said:
I have a hard time swallowing that Mccain looks better in economy terms. Its pretty hard for a candidate to get over the (Democrats = Domestic, Republicans = Foreign) hump.
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could be that people are buying McCain's claim that Obama will raise every single tax bracket known to man.
 
Zogby was HORRIBLE (Obama wins California by 11%!) in the primaries and predicted a Kerry landslide 3 days before the 2004 election.

grandjedi6 said:
I have a hard time swallowing that Mccain looks better in economy terms. Its pretty hard for a candidate to get over the (Democrats = Domestic, Republicans = Foreign) hump.
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Agreed. Polls show Obama with a double digit lead on the economy and McCain with a strong lead on Foreign Policy. It has been this way for almost 20 years now. I don't see that suddenly changing.
 
scorcho said:
could be that people are buying McCain's claim that Obama will raise every single tax bracket known to man.
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It's a good point, especially because it's not rebutted whenever the ad is shown on the news. Negative campaigning and lies do work occasionally.
 
Obama's running against a generation of rhetoric about 'tax and spend' Democrats. conversely, not many individuals are worked into frothy lather by 'no-tax and spend even more' Republicans.
 
1... its zogby


2... a guy takes a week off and his numbers fall, really? Thats amazing, i NEVER would have thought it would have happened, i thought that being out of hte public eye, not saying anything, not rebutting anything, i thought that was GOOD for numbers! /sarcasm
 
Chrono said:
What was the comment?
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/05/toby-keith-obama-acts-whi_n_116979.html

Last week, I reported for the Huffington Post that country singer Toby Keith had performed a pro-lynching anthem on the Colbert Report, and would be playing the same song soon on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno and a slew of nationally televised talk shows. ...

Now, Keith has trained his sights on Barack Obama, attacking him in racially tinged language that startled even the notoriously reactionary radio jock Glenn Beck. During Keith's appearance on the July 30 broadcast of Beck's show, he remarked, "I think the black people would say he [Obama] don't talk, act or carry himself as a black person."

"What does that even mean?" the audibly shocked Beck replied.

"Well, I don't know what that means," Keith drawled, "but I think that that's what they would say. Even though the black society would pull for him I still think that they think in the back of their mind that the only reason he is in [the general election] is because he talks, acts and carries himself as a Caucasian."
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The guy even made a song about lynching.
 
VanMardigan said:
This is pretty much inconprehensible. How in the hell?
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No it isn't. Americans are totally falling for the DRILL MORE AND DRILL NAOW rhetoric coming from the McCain campaign. I figured they'd get a boost at some point. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a trend.

I can't believe people would be so stupid to think drilling for more oil today is going to do anything for prices. It won't. Unless you don't mind waiting years and years and years.
 
Zogby has a history of outrageous poll fuckups. McCain up by 5 nationally probably makes sense but I doubt he's ahead of Obama on the economy. That being said it really seems like the GOP in general is killing the democrats on drilling, and people are responding. The "gas holiday" bullshit died pretty fast but this is still dominating attention, and swing states are buying in. Obama's lead in Ohio is gone, McCain has widened his Indiana lead, he's tied things up in Virginia, and things are pretty damn tight in Colorado.
 
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