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[SouthernDragon]

Obama needs to put the "it's a psychological thing" in an ad.

 

[The Librarian]

We need to start drilling and we need to start drilling now!

 

[maynerd]

What was the comment?

Edit: Beaten.

 

[Crayon Shinchan]

I've decided. The most appropriate way for Americans to deal with this sort of political split is simply to have a two systems under one nation deal. The north gets Obama, and the south gets McCain. Travel and trade between the two systems would be transperant, but domestic administration would be seperate (where defense and foreign administration is joint). It's a little complicated, but I think it would be for the best.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

Zogby has a history of outrageous poll fuckups. McCain up by 5 nationally probably makes sense but I doubt he's ahead of Obama on the economy. That being said it really seems like the GOP in general is killing the democrats on drilling, and people are responding. The "gas holiday" bullshit died pretty fast but this is still dominating attention, and swing states are buying in. Obama's lead in Ohio is gone, McCain has widened his Indiana lead, he's tied things up in Virginia, and things are pretty damn tight in Colorado.

And welcome to the curse that makes this election winnable by Mccain: A mass electorate of stupid, uneducated people who, when faced with a problem, look for the quickest fix they think is available to make their daily life easier. The majority of the dumb fucks in the country, when faced with a problem don't think about their problem...they want others to think for them.

It angers me.

 

[eznark]

So which polls are considered acceptable barometers for GAF?

 

[scorcho]

So which polls are considered acceptable barometers for GAF?

nothing Zogby, and nothing that shows McCain up by anything more than the margin of error.

 

[ToyMachine228]

I can't believe people would be so stupid to think drilling for more oil today is going to do anything for prices. It won't. Unless you don't mind waiting years and years and years.

I think Obama needs to "drill" harder the point that it's not the solution. It can be part of a larger comprehensive plan, which is what he has said from the beginning, but he needs to hammer more into people's heads.

 

[Days like these...]

And welcome to the curse that makes this election winnable by Mccain: A mass electorate of stupid, uneducated people who, when faced with a problem, look for the quickest fix they think is available to make their daily life easier. The majority of the dumb fucks in the country, when faced with a problem don't think about their problem...they want others to think for them.

It angers me.

So pretty much we're fucked? I really do hope Obama wins though.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

We need to start drilling and we need to start drilling now!

"Now, my opponent says that this will have no immediate impact on the price of gasoline. But, my friends, he's wrong. By simply talking about drilling this very second, it has already had an impact on last week's gas prices."

 

[Diablos]

Democrats need to make commercials explaining in detail why drilling is stupid, and how terribly Republicans are lying about it.

I've decided. The most appropriate way for Americans to deal with this sort of political split is simply to have a two systems under one nation deal. The north gets Obama, and the south gets McCain. Travel and trade between the two systems would be transperant, but domestic administration would be seperate (where defense and foreign administration is joint). It's a little complicated, but I think it would be for the best.

Keep dreaming.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

So pretty much we're fucked? I really do hope Obama wins though.

The only thing in this election that has surprised me so far is the widespread willingness to CONSIDER voting for an african american in a presidential election. That's great and all, but to beat the Republican machine of character assassination, Obama needs to have some cards lined up that the Republicans themselves are not expecting. And only he knows if he does...

So I'm not sure, its possible we're fucked. All depends on the cards he plays going into the November election.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

IMO the inevitable obama hangover has begun. doesn't mean it'll stay bad; polls fluctuate frequently to the point where you may as well read tea leaves. but as somebody who simply wanted a democrat in the white house, this is why a certain somebody else was my pick, because a known commodity wouldnt have the problems that're going on now. but overall i'm sure everything'll be fine.

 

[Diablos]

Indeed -- hopefully Obama has something really comprehensive planned for post-convention time.

 

[tanod]

So which polls are considered acceptable barometers for GAF?

National head-to-head polls never matter.

Everything else is irrelevant until mid-September.

 

[maximum360]

I think a lot of it is Lou Dobbs and the hour of garbage he spews every night. At least with other rightwing talking heads like Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity everyone knows they're Republican sock puppets. Lou Dobbs has a lot of blue-collar Democrats convinced he's actually an independent.

Seriously, Lou Dobbs is one of the worst. He's a "former republican" now turned "independent" but by his show you'd never know. He rails against Obama pretty much daily and specifically but then only bashes both parties in general terms. I don't think I've ever heard him directly go after John McCain on anything. The main problem with Dobbs is that he's a chronic complainer. He's like a typical grumpy senior citizen, complaining about everything and offering no solutions.

I think a lot of people are underestimating Obama and I think that's just how they like it. Most democrats are paranoid by nature and are quick to turn on each other if things are going perfectly while republicans seem to almost always fall in line behind their nominee no matter what. I think Obama will continue to run national positive Ads while doing local negative Ads until November. But I also believe, especially post-convention, Obama will gradually increase his rhetoric against McCain that will peak in October. (Going negative this early might have helped McCain for now but to maintain his number he has to continue being negative throughout and even increase it substantially, which may not bode well for him in the long run). Adding a VP choice like Biden will also help Obama to some degree as well since Obama may be able to stay above the fray while Biden goes in attack mode (and we know Biden is vicious in attack mode).

The single most disappointing thing about the media is that they are content to do the play by play and sensationalizing things for ratings sake, even propping up McCain and going negative on Obama to keep the race close. I guess the pundits and reporters who have been saying this is a "very close" race finally got their wish. Now that it's close, will they finally take it to McCain with same fervor that they've apportioned to Obama since the Rev. Wright fiasco? McCain's team doesn't even have to bother coming up with themes to attack Obama. They just have to tune in to the 24 hour cables news channels daily to get the scoop. The perfect example was Fineman on Olberman's show saying that Obama was either too prideful or just arrogant regarding his vp pick and using the Clinton's to help him.

 

[Diablos]

National head-to-head polls never matter.

Everything else is irrelevant until mid-September.

This whole year is bizarre, though. Everything started earlier, tons of people have voted, there have been a million debates, media coverage is insane -- perhaps the most involved it has ever been; I think it's really hard to gauge when things start to matter this year.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

i think bush 1 was like 20 points behind in july of 1988 or something. just goes to show...

 

[scorcho]

for anyone in NYC (or streams WNYC) Brian Lehrer currently has a segment dedicated to Democrats who are still unsure about Obama (and pine for Clinton to rise like a phoenix at the convention and reform the party into a matriarchal party that will never allow a white woman to lose to a black man again). the stereotypical responses of old, bitter women kvetching over Clinton's loss (a huge demographic in the tri-state area mind you) never ceases to make me giggle.

 

[Tamanon]

Huh. Tony Rodham, Hillary's brother actually met with Carly Fiorina from McCain's campaign. UNITY!

 

[maximum360]

I saw this at the top of MyYahoo. What the hell is going on? I knew Obama wasn't polling well recently but this is pretty shocking. The VP pick and the convention can't come soon enough.




This is pretty much inconprehensible. How in the hell?



I'm sure the convention will help those numbers. It better.

This may very well be the case but Zogby does rank very well in quality polling (for me anyway). I've seen some crazy positive numbers for Obama earlier on that were in stark contrast to other polls out there. I don't know why, but they tend to be the outlier.

I don't think this is potentially a bad thing as it takes McCain out of "the underdog" status. The main problem I think is with democrats in general. Democrats are a tragically fracture party compose of individuals who panic and are ready to turn on each other in an instant if things aren't peachy. Instead of saying "hey, the race has tightened up. It's time to get in line, work harder, and make this happen.", we get people backseat driving the politics and undermining Obama.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

for anyone in NYC (or streams WNYC) Brian Lehrer currently has a segment dedicated to Democrats who are still unsure about Obama (and pine for Clinton to rise like a phoenix at the convention and reform the party into a matriarchal party that will never allow a white woman to lose to a black man again). the stereotypical responses of old, bitter women kvetching over Clinton's loss (a huge demographic in the tri-state area mind you) never ceases to make me giggle.

I can see it. My mom still swears up and down that the powers that be screwed her out of winning by not counting Florida and Michigan just because Obama didn't win them. Some people really do exist in their own little bubble where facts from the outside are unable to get in.

 

[SouthernDragon]

This whole year is bizarre, though. Everything started earlier, tons of people have voted, there have been a million debates, media coverage is insane -- perhaps the most involved it has ever been; I think it's really hard to gauge when things start to matter this year.

But do they know him? He's only been in some 20+ debates, traveled to dozens, if not hundreds of cities, talked to various international heads of state, given several major speeches, wrote two biographies with a third book on policy going out, has had any and every political connection explored, has put his birth certificate online, put his wife's graduate thesis online, and been the subject of extensive coverage on all major news channels since February 2008 and been written about in major magazines and newspapers since November 2007.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

But do they know him? He's only been in some 20+ debates, traveled to dozens, if not hundreds of cities, talked to various international heads of state, given several major speeches, wrote two biographies with a third book on policy going out, has had any and every political connection explored, has put his birth certificate online, put his wife's graduate thesis online, and been the subject of extensive coverage on all major news channels since February 2008 and been written about in major magazines and newspapers since November 2007.

Yeah, it's not my fault that I'm suspicious of Obama. The guy came out of nowhere, and I know so little about him. Why, the other day, I heard that as a kid, he was educated by Muslim radicals. Is this true? Has anyone explored this? I don't know if I can vote for such a wild card -- I don't know what I'm getting there.

No, I think I'm just going to stick with the old white guy.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Obama: Washington is broken...it needs change. So, that's why my VP selection is a guy who's been serving in the US Senate since the Nixon Administration.

 

[SouthernDragon]

I heard his father was an atheist Muslim and his pastor is a radical Marine that hates America.

SD: You talkin' 'bout Biden?

 

[sprsk]

Obama: Washington is broken...it needs change. So, that's why my VP selection is a guy who's been serving in the US Senate since the Nixon Administration.

Did he decide already?

 

[scorcho]

McCain: My friends, Washington is broken...filled with partisanship...it needs change. So, that's why a torpid Washington insider like me is needed.

 

[maximum360]

But do they know him? He's only been in some 20+ debates, traveled to dozens, if not hundreds of cities, talked to various international heads of state, given several major speeches, wrote two biographies with a third book on policy going out, has had any and every political connection explored, has put his birth certificate online, put his wife's graduate thesis online, and been the subject of extensive coverage on all major news channels since February 2008 and been written about in major magazines and newspapers since November 2007.

The media narrative will still be "The American people still don't know Barack Obama" until the election. Pundits and most reporters will force people a narrative once they latch on to it.

 

[pxleyes]

Obama: Washington is broken...it needs change. So, that's why my VP selection is a guy who's been serving in the US Senate since the Nixon Administration.

Do you work for Fox News now?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Did he decide already?

Not announced yet.

IMO, Biden would be a terrible choice. And SD is right on part of the reason. You can throw the "change" notion right out the door with Biden. And then there's his Iraq vote.

For the first time in a good six months or so, I'm quite nervous about Obama's chances. Biden would be a disaster, and he's not responding to McCain's attacks well.

 

[Cheebs]

Not announced yet.

IMO, Biden would be a terrible choice. And SD is right on part of the reason. You can throw the "change" notion right out the door with Biden.

I'd rather win than have a good message. ANYONE that would help with one of his publicly perceived negatives is fine with me.

 

[maximum360]

Obama: Washington is broken...it needs change. So, that's why my VP selection is a guy who's been serving in the US Senate since the Nixon Administration.

So McCain is better? I think a good route for Obama to go is that Washington has been broken under McCain's watch. He's 26 years a part of the problem and he's as much to blame as Bush for many of the problems since their hugs justify their stance on many issues and symbolizes their similar voting record.

 

[VanMardigan]

Did he decide already?

You didn't get the text message?

Spoiler

It's Biden

 

[Kildace]

For the first time in a good six months or so, I'm quite nervous about Obama's chances. Biden would be a disaster, and he's not responding to McCain's attacks well.

The problem being that if he starts actually counter attacking regularly, how long will it be until the narrative turns into : "Obama won the primary based on a message of post-partisanship and positivity and now that he's losing he's showing that he's a regular Washington insider with their partisan and negative messages. Did the nomination get stolen from Hillary?", while still ignoring McCain altogether?

 

[PhoenixDark]

I'd rather win than have a good message. ANYONE that would help with one of his publicly perceived negatives is fine with me.

Agreed. Voters are beginning to get to know Obama anyway, they see him as a regular politician; "change" has taken a back seat when compared to high gas prices, energy issues, and foreign affairs. Biden would offer plenty of change in terms of reversing the Bush foreign policy. Obama's negatives could cost him the election, and with that in mind the best thing to do is try to fix them: outside of Hillary (maybe Clark) I don't see anyone who helps him with foreign policy as much as Biden

 

[VanMardigan]

I don't like the Biden selection either. As someone else said, if you're going to go with a Washington-insider-attack-dog VP, choose Hillary, who will actually boost your polling and pretty much guarantee a win in November as far as I'm concerned.

I just wish Obama would've taken a closer look at Clark.

 

[siamesedreamer]

FWIW, I really like Biden. Always have. There's something about his straight shooting style that I dig. Could care less about his voting record, etc. If you dig deep enough, then you should be able to find me saying earlier this year that I would actually vote for any ticket with Biden on it.

But, he doesn't fit the meme Mr. Hopenchange has established.

You see the Zogby poll where he's has lost 9 points off his base. Picking a guy who voted for the Iraq invasion would do absolutely nothing to shore up what he's losing. It would probably exacerbate the problem.

Richardson is and will always be the best choice. And yes, I realize he's latino (though I don't know the connection).

 

[maximum360]

I'm sure the media will soon go from "Why isn't Obama fighting back?" to "Obama is the positive change candidate. He should not be going negative. This will hurt him." He's in a lose-lose situation (with the media) regardless of the stance he takes, period. This is in stark contrast to McCain, who promised to keep the campaign focused on issues and not personal attacks. The media was all too accepting of it (showing McCain's negative Ad ad nauseum). Wasn't there even an article defending McCain, saying that McCain was forced to go negative?

 

[Cheebs]

FWIW, I really like Biden. Always have. There's something about his straight shooting style that I dig. Could care less about his voting record, etc. If you dig deep enough, then you should be able to find me saying earlier this year that I would actually vote for any ticket with Biden on it.

But, he doesn't fit the meme Mr. Hopenchange has established.

You see the Zogby poll where he's has lost 9 points off his base. Picking a guy who voted for the Iraq invasion would do absolutely nothing to shore up what he's losing. It would probably exacerbate the problem.

Richardson is and will always be the best choice. And yes, I realize he's latino (though I don't know the connection).

This isn't 2006 anymore. Iraq isn't the defining issue, or even one of the main ones. The economy and energy are dominating this election.

 

[tanod]

I don't like the Biden selection either. As someone else said, if you're going to go with a Washington-insider-attack-dog VP, choose Hillary, who will actually boost your polling and pretty much guarantee a win in November as far as I'm concerned.

I just wish Obama would've taken a closer look at Clark.

About Clark: Me too

About HRC: She would also increase Republican turnout to 2004+ levels, energize the base in fundraising, and eliminate the chance of Obama getting any independent voters over 40. Biden does none of these things.

About Biden: He should campaign in a straight talk express bus. Basically coopt everything McCain ran with in 2000 and make the difference between McCain now and then more than readily apparent to independent voters.

 

[schuelma]

Like I keep saying when I poke my head in here- wait for the debates. Obama will either pass the test or he won't. I suspect he will, though I admit that McCain has looked better than I thought he would.

 

[typhonsentra]

nothing Zogby, and nothing that shows McCain up by anything more than the margin of error.

I know what you're trying to say but the Zogby poll is actually the second ever poll to have McCain ahead.

Some of you are looking at this wrong though, as polling matters little at this point and even if it did, most polls still have Obama ahead. Ultimately if the right does decide to push the Zogby polling as a sign of Obama "Fading" it'll be harder to continue hammering him the way the media has since July. A "close" race is what the media wants, now that we're seeing signs of him improving expect media coverage to be more even.

 

[Cheebs]

About Clark: Me too

About HRC: She would also increase Republican turnout to 2004+ levels, energize the base in fundraising, and eliminate the chance of Obama getting any independent voters over 40. Biden does none of these things.

Agreed, also where the hell is the idea that Hillary has some sort of massive foreign policy experience that some how makes her fill the gap just as well as Biden? Clinton has only been in the senate 1 term. Biden has been on the foreign policy committee since 1972!

All of this "well if he wanted that he should have picked hillary". Hillary is attack dog + blue collar support. Biden is attack dog + blue collar suport + massive foreign policy experience. Hillary doesn't have the third part.

Also while Hillary was a very good debater, shockingly good to be fair to her Biden is far superior. In those useless 10 person debates Biden did the best, by far.

Also while Biden is in DC for a long time he doesn't act like a DC Insider like the Clintons. His straight shooter attitude helped maintain his image. Also do not forget the simple fact, Biden is from Pennsylvania and was raised there, blue collar Scranton to be exact. Everyone claims Romney has MI roots, Biden's PA roots are just as valid.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Like I keep saying when I poke my head in here- wait for the debates. Obama will either pass the test or he won't. I suspect he will, though I admit that McCain has looked better than I thought he would.

McCain has looked better than you thought? Are you referring to polling numbers? I'm just asking for clarification, because surely you're not referring to his skills as a campaigner, are you?

 

[UltimaKilo]

I think Biden is probably a bad idea, seeing how Obama is all about "change" and Biden brings little of that. However, Biden does bring in the experience that Obama lacks which makes you think why it isn't Biden running as President and Obama at VP.

I think if things were different, Clinton would have been the perfect choice. However, the long personal primary killed any chance of that. Edwards would have seemed like a plausible choice before we found out about his affair.

If I were advising the candidates I'd probably tell them this:

Obama - Biden, Bayh
McCain - Romney, Powell

Then again, I'm not advising the candidates and I'm sure the people that are currently, surpass my knowledge.

 

[schuelma]

McCain has looked better than you thought? Are you referring to polling numbers? I'm just asking for clarification, because surely you're not referring to his skills as a campaigner, are you?

He looked pretty good at the Warren event I thought. Better than I thought he would look. I still think its a lot more likely that Obama comes across a lot better, but McCain has shown a bit of life lately IMO.

 

[tanod]

He looked pretty good at the Warren event I thought. Better than I thought he would look. I still think its a lot more likely that Obama comes across a lot better, but McCain has shown a bit of life lately IMO.

If the audience wasn't so friendly to McCain, it would have looked like Sony E3 2006.

 

[typhonsentra]

Maybe he doesn't fit the "Change" image, but how hard do you think the GOP can actually push that meme? They're entire angle is that Obama is an unknown, what will they say? Admit that Obama picked someone with more experience than their own guy?

 

[Tamanon]

I dunno, the Warren event was a bit different, McCain did look more energized at times, but that's because he wasn't actually answering the questions, or just giving a quick answer and pivoting into part of his stump. That's why all this talk about knowing the questions was useless. McCain may not have known the questions, but he knew the answers to whatever question would be asked that he wanted to give. If the question wasn't quite what he thought it was, he just acknowledged the question in passing and pivoted to the part he had already prepared. I think that only worked because he could feed off a very friendly crowd.