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PoliGAF Thread of First Debate Election 2008 - GAF doesn't know shit

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D

Death_Born

Banned
worldrunover said:
Well, this is just disturbing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzuIHjQYW2c

I'm going to have nightmares now, thanks a lot Obama!
Click to expand...

f1idxc.gif
 
M

Mumei

Member
Cyan said:
[sorry, I've been wanting to get this out of my system]

Gaborn is nuts. Even if he's right about the time-frame question, he's still wrong on the issue as a whole. He claims that 90-95% of the way there (i.e. legalized civil unions) isn't good enough, and that once we get there it will take much longer to get to 100% (i.e. marriage).

Ok, let's look at this from a utility perspective. Say that Gaborn's idea wins out, and things stay the same for 10-15 years, then suddenly everybody changes their minds at once and gays can marry. 10 years of 0 utility, then 100% utility. Now let's say that instead, legalized civil unions happen right away. 90% utility. But it takes a long time to get to 100%... say 50 years.

Total utility of civil unions before marriage happens: 50 * .9 = 45
Total utility of no civil unions, and marriage quickly: (10 * 0) + (40 * 1) = 40

Mathematical!

Seems pretty clear to me. (incidentally, with these assumptions it'd require 100 years of civil-unions-without-marriage for Gaborn to be right)
Click to expand...

I don't know how many times in this topic, people who claim that they are supportive have said that there is no difference being civil unions and marriage - have told Gaborn to shut up about it. It doesn't matter. It is simply semantics. It is just a difference in phrasing.

When he gets a reaction like that before the issue has even occurred, how do you think that influences his opinion? The only opinion I've seen from any of you is that it doesn't matter which one we get. If that's the case, why on Earth would we expect to get your support once we want to move from civil unions? How is it that we can trust that you won't tell us to shut up when that happens?

Yes, McCain is worse on every single issue, Lawrence v. Texas (and possibly even Romer v. Evans) would be imperiled, and Obama is better on gay issues as they relate to adoptions, military, immigration, workplace and housing discrimination, hate crimes, AIDS funding, etc.

I'm just saying, you guys inspire absolutely no confidence.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I think that Palin is going to be able to hold her own in the debate. It's 2 minutes of soundbytes in a very controlled manner. If she doesn't go, it's a guaranteed devastating hit. If she does go, there's a chance she doesn't embarrass herself.

They're going.
Click to expand...

She can't do short contained soundbite answers in a fucking 30 second response to a absurdly softball interview from Katie-goddamn-Couric.

She's gonna be able to do 2 minutes of soundbites over the course of even an hour wherein she has to respond to criticisms directly leveled at her by her extremely knowledgeable opponent, else look like she folds under pressure?

I agree they're gonna have this debate, and I think at this point the expectations are SO LOW that the punditry will be "well she didn't implode and her face didn't melt off, clearly this is a victory since she is leaving still able to draw breath."

But I'd say it's a looooong toss to say she'll hold her own. She could maybe do it against fold candidates during Alaska debates, but here she'll need to stay on message and talk about all sorts of things she knows shit about.
 
T

Tobor

Member
Amir0x said:
She can't do short contained soundbite answers in a fucking 30 second response to a absurdly softball interview from Katie-goddamn-Couric.

She's gonna be able to do 2 minutes of soundbites over the course of even an hour wherein she has to respond to criticisms directly leveled at her by her extremely knowledgeable opponent, else look like she folds under pressure?

I agree they're gonna have this debate, and I think at this point the expectations are SO LOW that the punditry will be "well she didn't implode and her face didn't melt off, clearly this is a victory since she is leaving still able to draw breath."

But I'd say it's a looooong toss to say she'll hold her own. She could maybe do it against fold candidates during Alaska debates, but here she'll need to stay on message and talk about all sorts of things she knows shit about.
Click to expand...

There are going to be loads of indy voters watching this thing. The people who assume the Dems are being unfair, that she can't possibly be that bad. These people are going to have their eyes opened, and it's going to be beautiful.
 
C

Cyan

Banned
Mumei said:
I don't know how many times in this topic, people who claim that they are supportive have said that there is no difference being civil unions and marriage - have told Gaborn to shut up about it. It doesn't matter. It is simply semantics. It is just a difference in phrasing.
Click to expand...
Maybe you were responding to something else, but that's not even close to what I said in my post.
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
GhaleonEB said:
[*]The single best analysis of the debate I've read so far. Worth the read.
[/LIST]

The gist:


I think that's why a lot of us reacted the way we did. We wanted quick, blow-by-blow victories. But Obama had his eye on the bigger picture.

As usual.
Click to expand...
As Fallows Fan Club Member #54, it's expected of me to say it's a great observation. McCain acts like a military man, focusing on the tactics of how to win (be it an empty claim of victory like Iraq or say, an election) without thinking of the long-term strategy that it ultimately has to conform to. There's a reason why the military serves at the behest of a civilian president, and why the military is only a tool to the president's grand strategy for the country. McCain's unable to see the forest past the trees and looks only for a rolling succession of immediate gains.
 
S

Son of Godzilla

Banned
scorcho said:
Seriously, the McCain camp's fucking with us.
Click to expand...

No shit, it's pretty obvious. "Insiders" claiming it went disastrous? Yea, my ass. Biden doesn't seem to have fallen for it though.

The good news though is that this should piss off the media even more!
 
M

MassiveAttack

Banned
syllogism said:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/161204/page/1

Zakaria on Palin
Click to expand...

Superb.

"It's very important when you consider even national-security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America. Where—where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to—to our state."

There is, of course, the sheer absurdity of the premise. Two weeks ago I flew to Tokyo, crossing over the North Pole. Does that make me an expert on Santa Claus? (Thanks, Jon Stewart.) But even beyond that, read the rest of her response. "It is from Alaska that we send out those …" What does this mean? This is not an isolated example. Palin has been given a set of talking points by campaign advisers, simple ideological mantras that she repeats and repeats as long as she can. ("We mustn't blink.") But if forced off those rehearsed lines, what she has to say is often, quite frankly, gibberish.
Click to expand...
 
K

kkaabboomm

Member
syllogism said:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/161204/page/1

Zakaria on Palin
Click to expand...

"This is nonsense—a vapid emptying out of every catchphrase about economics that came into her head. "

what that reminded me of:
"It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks. You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get *NOTHING*! You lose! Good day sir!"

and:
"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
Zaraki_Kenpachi said:
It was a legitimate question, I didn't know if he did. In that case McCain should publicly release them.
Click to expand...
Not laughing at you at all. I just find it a really funny concept is all.

Sorry if I offended, dude.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
I want to break down the number of talking points in this buzzword extravaganza of answer:

COURIC: Why isn’t it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries? Allow them to spend more and put more money into the economy? Instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?

PALIN: That’s why I say, I like ever American I’m speaking with were ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the tax payers looking to bailout.

But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up the economy– Helping the — Oh, it’s got to be about job creation too. Shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americas. A

And trade we’ve got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive scary thing. But 1 in 5 jobs being created in the trade sector today. We’ve got to look at that as more opportunity. ALl those things under the umbrella of job creation.

This bailout is a part of that.
Click to expand...
1) Bailout
2) Healthcare reform
3) job creation
4) Healthcare reform (again)
5) reducing taxes (in a bail-out spending bill?)
6) reining in spending (while spending?)
7) tax reductions (again)
8) tax relief (Is that somehow different than tax reductions?)
9) trade
10) job creation

So the wall street bail-out due to the mortgage crisis isn't really about de-regulation of wall street . . . it is really about healthcare reform, job creation, Healthcare reform, reducing taxes, reining in spending, tax reductions, tax relief, trade, and job creation. Got that?
 
Z

Zapages

Member
Ok guys, I am registering to vote after that Obama commercial...

I currently live in Florida. But I lived all of my life in NJ... I consider my NJ's address my home address. But I am going to be Fl and living as tenant until end of July 09, so I kind of guess I am consider this place my home as well...

Correct? Should I do an absentee Ballet for NJ or I register to vote in Florida????
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Is the GOPs strategy to recruit new members by having really pretty brunette pundits on TV all the time? Because, goddamn, I'm thinking of converting.
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
Zapages said:
Ok guys, I am registering to vote after that Obama commercial...

I currently live in Florida. But I lived all of my life in NJ... I consider my NJ's address my home address. But I am going to be Fl and living as tenant until end of July 09, so I kind of guess I am consider this place my home as well...

Correct? Should I do an absentee Ballet for NJ or I register to vote in Florida????
Click to expand...
FOR GOD'S SAKES FLORIDA!
 
C

CharlieDigital

Banned
Zapages said:
Ok guys, I am registering to vote after that Obama commercial...

I currently live in Florida. But I lived all of my life in NJ... I consider my NJ's address my home address. But I am going to be Fl and living as tenant until end of July 09, so I kind of guess I am consider this place my home as well...

Correct? Should I do an absentee Ballet for NJ or I register to vote in Florida????
Click to expand...

Hard to say. On the one hand, there is always the chance that an absentee ballot gets lost in the mail or your application for the ballot gets lost and you don't get your ballot on time. But then again, this is Florida we're talking about here...no telling what kind of tomfoolery could happen at the polling stations.

Also, this:

RubxQub said:
FOR GOD'S SAKES FLORIDA!
Click to expand...
 
A

agrajag

Banned
Mumei said:
I don't know how many times in this topic, people who claim that they are supportive have said that there is no difference being civil unions and marriage - have told Gaborn to shut up about it. It doesn't matter. It is simply semantics. It is just a difference in phrasing.

When he gets a reaction like that before the issue has even occurred, how do you think that influences his opinion? The only opinion I've seen from any of you is that it doesn't matter which one we get. If that's the case, why on Earth would we expect to get your support once we want to move from civil unions? How is it that we can trust that you won't tell us to shut up when that happens?

Yes, McCain is worse on every single issue, Lawrence v. Texas (and possibly even Romer v. Evans) would be imperiled, and Obama is better on gay issues as they relate to adoptions, military, immigration, workplace and housing discrimination, hate crimes, AIDS funding, etc.

I'm just saying, you guys inspire absolutely no confidence.
Click to expand...


If it makes you feel better, my goal is to change ALL marriages to civil unions.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Zapages said:
Ok guys, I am registering to vote after that Obama commercial...

I currently live in Florida. But I lived all of my life in NJ... I consider my NJ's address my home address. But I am going to be Fl and living as tenant until end of July 09, so I kind of guess I am consider this place my home as well...

Correct? Should I do an absentee Ballet for NJ or I register to vote in Florida????
Click to expand...

Umm, your vote isn't needed in NJ. Vote in Florida!!!!
 
Z

Zapages

Member
RubxQub said:
FOR GOD'S SAKES FLORIDA!
Click to expand...


The thing is that I am going to Grad school in Florida.... That's the only reason I am here??? Would that count??? If I go back to NJ after the 4 year would have to re-register to vote and this time for NJ or would I have to send an absentee ballet for Florida???
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
When this pretty brunette opens her mouth on MSNBC, it's such a turn off. WHY ARE YOU A REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST DAMMIT?!
 
Z

Zapages

Member
CharlieDigital said:
You can always call your county clerk's office and find out.
Click to expand...


Yeah I guess, but this is Florida, redneck country from what I've noticed so far by living here the past month and half or so... Everyone here is so pro - McCain that it is not even funny. :(
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
agrajag said:
If it makes you feel better, my goal is to change ALL marriages to civil unions.
Click to expand...

While that would be a perfectly acceptable outcome, anyone who thinks that that would be more achievable than actual SSM is completely out of touch with reality.

Rightly or wrongly, most straight couples will see the loss of government recognition of the word "marriage" as a step backward for their rights. And it's always easier to move a minority forwards in terms of rights than to move a majority backwards.
 
I

Instigator

Banned
mamacint said:
This posted?

Maybe it's just part of the expectations game, but if true, Holy Crap...this is going to be brutal.
Click to expand...

If true, one has to wonder how Palin is taking it. Is she calculating no matter what happens, the national spotlight gives her opportunities for the future? Is she oblivious? Is there a vicious circle at play, undermining her confidence more and more? Does she fear she might get ultimately blamed when McCain loses on November 4th?
 
P

phalestine

aka iby.h
Zapages said:
Yeah I guess, but this is Florida, redneck country from what I've noticed so far by living here the past month and half or so... Everyone here is so pro - McCain that it is not even funny. :(
Click to expand...

well northern Florida for sure, but the south is a lot more diverse.
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
If the debate really is super controlled, I don't expect much. It's all up to the moderator to ask follow up questions.

*watches video of Gwen Ifill*
 
B

Brannon

Member
To be sure, Palin is faking it, even though that 2006 Governor video is suspect. But in the off chance she isn't, I surmise that their plan will be that Palin has appendicitis. It's flawless. She can complain of pains, then go to the hospital and get exploratory surgery. They'll cut her open and see no inflammation. But doctors take out the appendix anyway because hey, why not, just get it out of the way. This will require a week of recovery and she won't be able to attend the debate.

Then Rudy comes along...

Yes. I can see it all now!
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Brannon said:
To be sure, Palin is faking it, even though that 2006 Governor video is suspect. But in the off chance she isn't, I surmise that their plan will be that Palin has appendicitis. It's flawless. She can complain of pains, then go to the hospital and get exploratory surgery. They'll cut her open and see no inflammation. But doctors take out the appendix anyway because hey, why not, just get it out of the way. This will require a week of recovery and she won't be able to attend the debate.

Then Rudy comes along...

Yes. I can see it all now!
Click to expand...

If something like that happens where Rudy shows up, Biden won't hold back. Like, at all.

I thought part of the point of Palin was to neuter Biden.
 
A

agrajag

Banned
Father_Brain said:
While that would be a perfectly acceptable outcome, anyone who thinks that that would be more achievable than actual SSM is completely out of touch with reality.

Rightly or wrongly, most straight couples will see the loss of government recognition of the word "marriage" as a step backward for their rights. And it's always easier to move a minority forwards in terms of rights than to move a majority backwards.
Click to expand...

Most straight couples are fucking idiots. They keep insisting that gays can't marry because marriage is a religious concept. We're supposed to have a separation of church and fucking state. They can still get married in their church and their marriage will be recognized as a strictly religious ceremony.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Instigator said:
If true, one has to wonder how Palin is taking it. Is she calculating no matter what happens, the national spotlight gives her opportunities for the future? Is she oblivious? Is there a vicious circle at play, undermining her confidence more and more? Does she fear she might get ultimately blamed when McCain loses on November 4th?
Click to expand...

She's probably oblivious; really reminds me of Bush. But I kinda feel sorry for the position she's in. She's been put in a bad position where it'll be hard for her to succeed whether McCain wins or not. But then again, I'm not particularly sure that she is trying to master the material she's been given.
 
G

giga

Member
Brannon said:
To be sure, Palin is faking it, even though that 2006 Governor video is suspect. But in the off chance she isn't, I surmise that their plan will be that Palin has appendicitis. It's flawless. She can complain of pains, then go to the hospital and get exploratory surgery. They'll cut her open and see no inflammation. But doctors take out the appendix anyway because hey, why not, just get it out of the way. This will require a week of recovery and she won't be able to attend the debate.

Then Rudy comes along...

Yes. I can see it all now!
Click to expand...
Something timed as perfect as that will get some big backlash from the media. People aren't stupid.
 
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