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PoliGAF Thread of THE END and FIST POUNDS (NYT: Hillary drop out/endorse Saturday)

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T

Tamanon

Banned
Zaptruder said:
What does Sec of State do? :p

I'm actually not that familiar with all the cabinet roles... but he can definetly load up his cabinet with superstars for electability purposes, and still have something that's actually very workable...

except for the personality clashes! Don't know if all those people would work together... would probably have to drop Clinton as Sec of Health if she is still bitter by then.
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Sec of State is your head foreign policy person. Basically the diplomat-in-chief. Condi's the current one.
 
S

sangreal

Member
StrikerObi said:
You forgot Joe Biden as Sec of State and Al Gore as Sec of Energy OR head of the EPA.

Why the hell is there no Sec of The Environment? Is that too similar to Energy?
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No, thats what the head of the EPA is

Its just not called that because its not technically a cabinet agency I believe
 
T

tanod

when is my burrito
Mandark said:
Dude, a tax cut without a spending cut isn't really a tax cut, because you're borrowing money that has to be repaid through tax revenue later. It's a tax shift.

Milton Friedman was the most prominent person to speak out for this idea so you're pretty much obligated to believe it.
Click to expand...

Also: In the last 70 years, federal government spending has NEVER EVER gone down. There is no such thing as a spending cut as the Republicans would like voters to believe. There is only restraint.
 
E

Evander

"industry expert"
Zaptruder said:
What does Sec of State do? :p

I'm actually not that familiar with all the cabinet roles... but he can definetly load up his cabinet with superstars for electability purposes, and still have something that's actually very workable...

except for the personality clashes! Don't know if all those people would work together... would probably have to drop Clinton as Sec of Health if she is still bitter by then.
Click to expand...

I forget, are health and education still one department?

because I don't mind clinton onhealth, but I don't want her on education.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Health and Education are separate departments, and it's stupendously unlikely that a sitting senator will be given a cabinet position.

I'll quote myself from earlier in this thread:
Stumpokapow said:
I think people are getting a bit carried away with "Dream Cabinets" that consist of nothing but former presidential candidates and sitting senators and governors.

It would be an exceptionally bad idea to take a large contingent of sitting governors and senators, forcing a large quantity of special elections that will cost both parties money and might result in the Democrats losing electoral positions.

Look at Bush's first cabinet:
Non-elected: Paul O'Neill, Gale Norton, Colin Powell, Ann Veneman, Don Evans, Elaine Chao, Rod Paige, Mel Martinez, Anthony Principi, Andrew Card, Mitch Daniels, John Walters, Robert Zoellick
Retired from elected life: Donald Rumsfeld, Spencer Abraham
Currently elected: Tommy Thompson (Gov.), Tom Ridge (Gov.), Christine Whitman
Other: Norm Mineta (holdover from Clinton cabinet)

We see several key things:
- 1) The vast majority of the cabinet is chosen from the civil service and private sector, rather than elected politicians. Elder statesmen and former politicos make up a small portion. Currently elected politicians are not a big factor
- 2) Of the non-elected people chosen for cabinet, the VAST majority were involved with Bush's presidential campaign or his gubernatorial administration or campaign.

Clinton's first cabinet, for a Democratic comparison:
Non-elected: Warren Christopher, Janet Reno, Ron Brown, Robert Reich, Donna Shalala, Federico Peña, Hazel O'Leary, Jesse Brown, Mack McLarty,
Retired from elected life: Lloyd Bentsen, Bruce Babbitt, Rick Riley, Henry Cisneros
Currently elected: Les Aspin (Rep.), Mike Espy (Rep.), Leon Panetta (Rep.)

We see basically the same emphasis here. Try to put yourself in the mindset of 1993 and ask yourself whether or not this cabinet is analgous to the expectations of these dream cabinets now.

It's not. Cabinet members are rarely beneficial to a President's popularity ratings and frequently liabilities. Presidents do not run their presidential campaigns on the strength of their proposed cabinet. Presidents rarely reveal any cabinet choices before the election, actually, specifically because those choices tend to be liabilities more then assets.

The idea of every prominent Democrat from the last ten years singing kumbaya as they are given their dream cabinet positions is unlikely. If I were a betting man, I'd be looking at prominent community organizers, activists, and civil servants particularly those who have backgrounds that intersect with Obama or have supported him since the beginning for most of the "B-tier" cabinet positions. The A-tier is more predictable, but it still won't be a who's who of current Democratic Senators.

Obama has the rare opportunity to govern with an exceptionally friendly congress with the Democrats within reach of cloture in the senate. He's not going to blow that by taking star Senators away and risking Republicans sliding in to fill the vacuum.
Click to expand...

Why it's unlikely Clinton would have a cabinet position even if this wasn't true:
1) Secretary of Health doesn't lead to anything so why would it be appealing to her as someone with higher aspirations? She's be guaranteed four years of high stress low prestige employment followed by being either shitcanned after a loss in 2012, shitcanned as part of normal cabinet turnover, or just fading away into nothingness. It gives her virtually no leverage for 2016. Any benefit in terms of private sector or nepotism / Ambassador positions a normal Secretary might gain, Hillary already has.

2) It'd allow the Republicans to raise the spectre of the 90s UHC boondoggle as opposed to having to critically engage an Obama UHC plan. Even worse, it'd force either Hillary or Obama to compromise on the technical details of their plans which puts at least one of them in a bad position politically.

3) New York would go from having a high-prominence middle-of-the-pack seniority Junior Senator to the most Junior Senator in the whole Senate. In addition, short of carpetbagging I can't think of any rising stars that they might want to throw at her senate seat to give a boost to.
Click to expand...
 
N

NewLib

Banned
Evander said:
I forget, are health and education still one department?

because I don't mind clinton onhealth, but I don't want her on education.
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Like Clinton would agree to be either. Being a Senator is a more powerful position than a low level cabinet position.

The only cabinet positions which I can see a senator or governor leaving their office for are State, Treasury (though you would like to have a successful private individual in this position), Defense, and possible Attorney General.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
I tend to believe that Obama is aware that there are more people in this country capable of serving in his cabinet than the names floated as presidential or vice-presidential candidates in the past four years. :p
 
S

sangreal

Member
Hitokage said:
I tend to believe that Obama is aware that there are more people in this country capable of serving in his cabinet than the names floated as presidential candidates in the past four years. :p
Click to expand...

Those people would only fit in a few cabinet positions anyway, theres not enough high-profile positions for all of them

Most of the positions are dull, low-profile administrative jobs.
 
K

kkaabboomm

Member
Evander said:
I forget, are health and education still one department?

because I don't mind clinton onhealth, but I don't want her on education.
Click to expand...
education is one, health and human services is another, but you have already been told this by now
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
Hitokage said:
I tend to believe that Obama is aware that there are more people in this country capable of serving in his cabinet than the names floated as presidential or vice-presidential candidates in the past four years. :p
Click to expand...
this.
 
K

kkaabboomm

Member
Amir0x said:
ok so what's up in this place

did Obama win the nomination yet
Click to expand...
sadly, no. i hear chants of "DEN-VER" and keep being reminded that supers can't vote until the convention, and thus he isn't the nominee yet, everywhere i go. Obama apparently will lose the GE in a landslide, and when you combine that basic truth with the michelle tape, the supers will all switch en-masse this summer and vote for Clinton. Obama will not and has not won the nomination. so sad.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Stumpokapow said:
Health and Education are separate departments, and it's stupendously unlikely that a sitting senator will be given a cabinet position.

I'll quote myself from earlier in this thread:


Why it's unlikely Clinton would have a cabinet position even if this wasn't true:
Click to expand...

It's fair to say that you can't fill your cabinet with sitting officials, but its not "stupendously unlikely" that at least one sitting senator will be given a cabinet position. Biden (D) is openly hoping for secretary of state (He was promised the role in a Kerry administration, after all), and Hagel (R) is known to be a short-list Secretary of Defense. Hagel is also open to the position

I'm sure Senators in states that allow the Governor (D) to choose a replacement are more likely to be considered for any administrative role

I would hope that Obama, unlike Bush, would actually appoint experts rather than party elders/friends
 
J

Justin Bailey

------ ------
Man, watching that McCain video makes me feel like the debates are going to be painful. . . just painful. He sounded like a kid doing a school play.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Amir0x said:
Any interesting developments during the day
Click to expand...

Obama has a net gain of 25 superdelegates.

- Added Rep. Chris Van Hollen (MD) for Obama
- Switched VP Walter Mondale (MN) from Clinton to Obama
- Added Sen. Frank Lautenberg (NJ) for Obama
- Added Gov. Phil Bredesen (TN) for Obama
- Added DNC Gray Sasser (TN) for Obama
- Added DNC Inez Crutchfield (TN) for Obama
- Added Rep. Rahm Emanuel (IL) for Obama
- Added Rep. Mike Doyle (PA) for Obama
- Added Sen. Ken Salazar (CO) for Obama
- Added Sen. Tom Harkin (IA) for Obama
- Added Rep. Tom Udall (NM) for Obama
- Added Sen. Ben Cardin (MD) for Obama
- Added Sen. Herb Kohl (WI) for Obama
- Switched DNC Karen Hale (UT) from Clinton to Obama
- Added Sen. Ron Wyden (OR) for Obama
- Added Terry Goddard (AZ)# for Obama
- Added Rep. John Salazar (CO) for Obama
- Added Rep. Mark Udall (CO) for Obama
- Added DNC David Strauss (ND) for Obama
- Added Sen. Tom Carper (DE) for Obama
- Added Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA) for Obama
- Switched Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA) from Clinton to Obama
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
sangreal said:
It's fair to say that you can't fill your cabinet with sitting officials, but its not "stupendously unlikely" that at least one sitting senator will be given a cabinet position. Biden (D) is openly hoping for secretary of state (He was promised the role in a Kerry administration, after all), and Hagel (R) is known to be a short-list Secretary of Defense. Hagel is also open to the position

I'm sure Senators in states that allow the Governor (D) to choose a replacement are more likely to be considered for any administrative role
Click to expand...

First, I should note that under Kerry's initial platform the VP role would be extended to cover much of what we conceive of as the SecState's job; it was only when Edwards was settled as the VP pick that this plan was switched up.

It is still quite unlikely that a sitting Senator will be put in cabinet, even knowing rumoured shortlists. As I mentioned--most cabinet jobs do not lead to anything and offer little personal prestige for the Senator, most Senators are vibrant enough personally that it'd be tough for them to play their role without causing controversy, and the loss of a Senator is a massive losing proposition for a state (Hagel is 55th in seniority, Biden is 6th; if both were appointed on the same day, Nebraska would get the 99th seniority senator, Delaware would get the 100th; never mind the loss of committee assignments and the potential lack of suitable replacement candidates)--this is even without the problem that some states require special elections and are potential targets.

I would hope that Obama, unlike Bush, would actually appoint experts rather than party elders/friends
Click to expand...

Look at Clinton's first cabinet. We could do the same thing for any President. The majority of people who are the most qualified to be in cabinet come from the ranks of life-long civil servants. Given that Obama's background is actually community organizing, I'd expect his choices would actually slant FURTHER towards activists and civil servants.

The cabinet makeup is going to be 50% unknowns, 35% retired "elders", and 15% congressmen and state officials.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Amir0x said:
Awesome

(p.s. i knew he won of course, i was still alive for that)

Any interesting developments during the day
Click to expand...

Furthermore, during a Senate vote Wednesday, Obama dragged Lieberman by the hand to a far corner of the Senate chamber and engaged in what appeared to reporters in the gallery as an intense, three-minute conversation.

While it was unclear what the two were discussing, the body language suggested that Obama was trying to convince Lieberman of something and his stance appeared slightly intimidating.

Using forceful, but not angry, hand gestures, Obama literally backed up Lieberman against the wall, leaned in very close at times, and appeared to be trying to dominate the conversation, as the two talked over each other in a few instances.

Still, Obama and Lieberman seemed to be trying to keep the back-and-forth congenial as they both patted each other on the back during and after the exchange.

Afterwards, Obama smiled and pointed up at reporters peering over the edge of the press gallery for a better glimpse of their interaction.

Obama loyalists were quick to express their frustration with Lieberman's decision and warned that if he continues to take a lead role in attacking Obama it could complicate his professional relationship with the Caucus.
Click to expand...
Lieberman opened his mouth; Obama closed it
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Obama is 26 delegates away from clinching that other magic number (2209) that would come about had MI and FL been given their full voting rights. Obama's gotten a net of 25 so far just today. There's still 124.5 superdelegates remaining.

In the next couple of days, Obama will have such a lead in superdelegates that Clinton will have 0 chance at the nomination, even if she appeals to the credentials committee or present any proposals at the convention
 
D

Diablos

Member
Dartastic said:
That's so awesome. :lol
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McCain worked on that poor excuse for a speech for THREE WEEKS? REALLY? :lol :lol :lol

Oh man, gets me every time.

"That's not change we can believe in! eheheheheheheh heheh heh."
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
ZealousD said:
Obama is 26 delegates away from clinching that other magic number (2209) that would come about had MI and FL been given their full voting rights. Obama's gotten a net of 25 so far just today. There's still 124.5 superdelegates remaining.

In the next couple of days, Obama will have such a lead in superdelegates that Clinton will have 0 chance at the nomination, even if she appeals to the credentials committee or present any proposals at the convention
Click to expand...

He's already got that clinched, remember, if they restore to full votes, then he gets extra Florida votes.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Tamanon said:
He's already got that clinched, remember, if they restore to full votes, then he gets extra Florida votes.
Click to expand...

Ah, right, duh. But Clinton can always propose removing his MI delegates, can't she? I don't think he's in quite a position yet to hit the magic number should his MI delegates be removed and restored to full vote. He'll probably hit that soon though.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
ZealousD said:
Obama is 26 delegates away from clinching that other magic number (2209) that would come about had MI and FL been given their full voting rights. Obama's gotten a net of 25 so far just today. There's still 124.5 superdelegates remaining.

In the next couple of days, Obama will have such a lead in superdelegates that Clinton will have 0 chance at the nomination, even if she appeals to the credentials committee or present any proposals at the convention
Click to expand...
He's hit it Chuck Todd says.

If they fully count Chuck Todd says his MI, FL supers and his MI/FL pledged ones that now count as half when counted as full would put him past 2209
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
icarus-daedelus said:
Considering the fact that Justices serve life terms, that's much worse than making her VP. :/ She wouldn't be terrible, I think, especially compared to the rest of the bench (f.u. Scalia), but with a significant majority in the Senate that'll likely rubberstamp whomever he picks, and at least two likely retirements coming up, that's kind of a wasted opportunity there.
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Also not being a judge. I dare ya, name a Supreme Court justice who had no experience being a judge beforehand.

There have been 2 in the last 70 years or so:
LF Powell was appointed by Nixon; previously he was the President of the ABA.
Byron White (appointed to Kennedy) was the last one; he was the Deputy Attorney General.

Why would Hillary, by all accounts a pretty average professional lawyer with no jurisprudential experience at all and a long history of partisanship and ripe opportunities for COI recusals, ever be nominated?
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
JohnTinker said:
breaking: Tony Rezko found guilty
Click to expand...

hahahahahahahahahaha

I can hear Hillaryis44 now.

"OF COURSE, THEY WAITIED TO ISSUE THE GUILTY VERDICT UNTIL AFTER ALL THE PRIMARIES ENDED OBAMA IS CORRUPT HES GOT THE COURTS IN HIS POCKET OMG"
 
B

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
Diablos said:
McCain worked on that poor excuse for a speech for THREE WEEKS? REALLY? :lol :lol :lol

Oh man, gets me every time.

"That's not change we can believe in! eheheheheheheh heheh heh."
Click to expand...


In Louisiana, McCain Claims He Voted For Every Katrina Investigation -- Except He Didn't

After a local reporter at his Baton Rouge press conference asked why he voted against forming a commission to investigate the levee failures in New Orleans, McCain insisted that he supported every investigation -- and added that he was "not familiar" with what the reporter was talking about.
Click to expand...

He's toast when the free pass from the media ends.
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Just got home, what did I miss today? Heard the beginning of Obama's speech this morning, but didn't hear any of Hillary's. Anything new?
 
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