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[Incognito]

biden/obama seem to be slacking today, only one stop each. Ryan is on a bus tour of ohio with 5 stops, Romney has 3 stops in florida. Must have a lot of spare time by not giving a single interview to anyone

obama mentioned they had to slow it down over the weekend in order to give the SS time to regroup from their 48 hour swing state bonanza.

 

[pigeon]

The LA Times has a theory as to why Romney keeps running out of money:

WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney's campaign has directed $134.2 million to political firms with business ties to his senior staff, spotlighting the tightknit nature of his second presidential bid and the staggering sums being spent in this election.

Nine firms that are run by, or recently employed, top Romney aides have received almost a third of the $435.8 million that Romney's campaign and a related fundraising committee have spent on operating expenses through Oct. 17, according to a Los Angeles Times analysis of federal election finance reports....

The structure of Romney's campaign is largely a reaction to his consultant-heavy 2008 presidential bid, which aides said was plagued by turf wars between competing strategists. This time around, the infrastructure is centered on members of Romney's inner circle who have long histories with the candidate, such as Zwick and Fehrnstrom....

Mark Kennedy, a former GOP congressman from Minnesota who directs the George Washington University School of Political Management, noted that campaigns doing business with firms owned by senior staff must have safeguards to ensure that the candidate's best interests are being served.

"You make sure that key decisions are confirmed by people that don't have a conflict," he said.

The Romney campaign declined to answer questions about how it manages potential conflicts or whether senior advisors have a say over how much is allocated to their firms.

Several top officials oversee departments in which related firms provide services.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-campaign-payday-20121027,0,6084625.story

Rather unilluminating infograph: http://graphics.latimes.com/cheatsheet-campaign-payments-staff-connected-firms/

The more I read about Romney's campaign, the more I realize a) that its constant problems are really just a reflection of the fundamental problems with the entire management/consultant/LBO structure Romney grew up in, and b) that it (and thus our financial sector) really resembles the PRC or other heavily corrupt governments, with nepotism and siphoning off funds being the order of the day. So I guess that's pretty funny.

 

[HylianTom]

It's interesting though that Nate doesn't seem to buy it. Last night on Maher he said he thinks there's only a 7% chance of an Obama 2000 scenario.

Yup, I've noticed this.

He says 7%, Sam says 25%.
I'm not sure of their methodologies for arriving at these numbers. Seems like a fairly large difference.

I'm not saying yet that it'll most definitely happen, but if we head into Election Day with most trackers showing Romney up 3 or 4% nationally, I'd think that this is the best chance we will have had at seeing it happen in a long time.

side note: after Election 2000, statisticians provided regional voting numbers and patterns. One kind of data provided was "The South vs The Rest of the Country." There was a noticeable difference even that year (I remember because I used this data to mock my family as being out of touch with the rest of the country, haha..), but not as dramatic as we may be seeing now.

 

[ido]

It's interesting though that Nate doesn't seem to buy it. Last night on Maher he said he thinks there's only a 7% chance of Obama losing the popular but winning the electoral.

Sam Wang said something like a 25% chance a handful of days ago.

Sam Wang seems to take a much more simplified approach to his numbers, but they are both way smarter than me and I can only hope that they are right(both EC and PV).

How long have each been in the game? Isn't Sam Wang's record even better than Silvers?

 

[Angry Grimace]

The Gallup and Ras polls really do bug me. Hopefully they're the ones that are wrong and not the others.

The thing is, they are the ones that aren't in line with the state polls so there's no reason to assume that they are correct and the others are wrong.

 

[ErasureAcer]

biden/obama seem to be slacking today, only one stop each. Ryan is on a bus tour of ohio with 5 stops, Romney has 3 stops in florida. Must have a lot of spare time by not giving a single interview to anyone

College football kills Saturday's national news on TV.

 

[pigeon]

He says 7%, Sam says 25%.
I'm not sure of their methodologies for arriving at these numbers. Seems like a fairly large difference.

Nate assumes that states will correlate, so that if Romney outperforms his polls in one state he's likely to outperform in general. Sam doesn't -- he assumes each state is an island and can only be understood using their individual polls. Both, obviously, are simplifications, just different types of simplifications.

My interpretation would basically be that everybody agrees Virginia, Colorado, and to a lesser degree Florida are basically coin flips. Nate assumes that whoever wins one is more likely to win the others, while Sam assumes they're all separate coin flips. The thing is that Obama just needs to win one of them, really, so the easier you assume it is to break one of them off from the others, the easier it is for Obama to win a narrow victory, which makes it more likely that there will be an EV/PV split. This should also help clarify why PEC shows Obama's chance to win so much higher than 538 -- 538 doesn't have a lot of faith in "multiple paths to victory."

 

[Y2Kev]

Yup, I've noticed this.

He says 7%, Sam says 25%.
I'm not sure of their methodologies for arriving at these numbers. Seems like a fairly large difference.

I'm not saying yet that it'll most definitely happen, but if we head into Election Day with most trackers showing Romney up 3 or 4% nationally, I'd think that this is the best chance we will have had at seeing it happen in a long time.

side note: after Election 2000, statisticians provided regional voting numbers and patterns. One kind of data provided was "The South vs The Rest of the Country." There was a noticeable difference even that year (I remember because I used this data to mock my family as being out of touch with the rest of the country, haha..), but not as dramatic as we may be seeing now.

Probably has to do with RV/LV swings.

 

[Revolver]

Not that my small anecdotal slice of the south is any sort of proof at all, but almost every single person that I work around firmly hates Obama, and cites the various lies that we have all heard for their reason(communist, muslim, gay, baby killer, black[not that being black is a lie, but they are quite prejudice against him for this], etc). Further more, they all TRULY believe that Obama has no chance at all to win. During our breaks, the only station they watch on our TV in the break room is FOX, and of course FOX only really shows favorable polls to Romney. All of them quite literally think this will be more of a landslide victory than the election of 1980.

Thankfully, at least so far, the numbers favor Obama. With a little luck, I predict my day at work on November 7th will be amazing. My only other coworker who is voting for Obama is going to have a cake made to look like Obama and bring it to the rest of the crew.

I feel your pain. My workplace is exactly the same. Except for a few more Obama supporters. All I hear day-in and day-out is "Romney landslide" and how Obama is about to get his ass kicked back to Kenya. It's infuriating. My wife hears the same shit where she works too. I've lived in the South my whole life and have never seen so much open racism and vitriol.

 

[Captain Pants]

I am bored at work. My apologies.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Seems like a slow day, outside if storm concern trolling. I won't be worried until I hear campaign people get worried, and even then ill be skeptical.

If Obama loses it'll be due to Romney winning Ohio, not fucking Pennsylvania

 

[Clevinger]

I feel your pain. My workplace is exactly the same. Except for a few more Obama supporters. All I hear day-in and day-out is "Romney landslide" and how Obama is about to get his ass kicked back to Kenya. It's infuriating. My wife hears the same shit where she works too. I've lived in the South my whole life and have never seen so much open racism and vitriol.

Look on the bright side. If Obama wins, your workplace will be quiet as shit on November 7th. Lots of mopey racists with their heads down.

 

[Manmademan]

Look on the bright side. If Obama wins, your workplace will be quiet as shit on November 7th. Lots of mopey racists with their heads down.

Nah, there are going to be a lot of angry racists foaming at the mouth about "voter fraud!"

 

[markatisu]

This thread makes my head hurt, I can't tell whats trolling anymore lol

So in the past day the South will rise again and the Storm is going to just turn all Eastern States Red?

Oh yeah and Nate Silver who has been freakishly right for almost 5 years is wrong and Rasmussen the farce of a polling firm is right....like I said not sure what is trolling anymore

 

[Hop]

The LA Times has a theory as to why Romney keeps running out of money:

I've long suspected that Romney was actually really really bad with money- he never had to learn to be good with it- while Obama is really good with money, resulting in an Obama edge if the two were to have the exact same amount of money.

I'd actually love to find more analysis about candidates' wealth, the source of it (trust fund, entrepreneurship, etc), and their eventual successes/failures, particularly in terms of campaign approach and monetary policy. Because it'd be way more interesting than this chicken little shit, for fuck's sake.

This thread makes my head hurt, I can't tell whats trolling anymore lol

Everyone. Don't believe a word you read.

 

[ido]

Look on the bright side. If Obama wins, your workplace will be quiet as shit on November 7th. Lots of mopey racists with their heads down.

Quiet? Hardly.

That is when they will be loudest, as the conspiracies will begin. Literally nothing Obama does is good in their eyes, and if he wins after "EVERY POLL HAS ROMNEY WINNING A LANDSLIDE" they will surely think there is a conspiracy, led by Obama.

"He rigged those job numbers, I know he rigged this whole election. Our country is doomed."

 

[markatisu]

"He rigged those job numbers, I know he rigged this whole election. Our country is doomed."

So they will become what Democrats were from 2000-2008 lol

 

[HylianTom]

College football kills Saturday's national news on TV.

Yup. Autumun weekend = football
Woo-hoo!

 

[gutter_trash]

Nov 6 can't come soon enough for anxiety to end

 

[Zen]

Look on the bright side. If Obama wins, your workplace will be quiet as shit on November 7th. Lots of mopey racists with their heads down.

Doubtful.

 

[Chumly]

The LA Times has a theory as to why Romney keeps running out of money:



http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-campaign-payday-20121027,0,6084625.story

Rather unilluminating infograph: http://graphics.latimes.com/cheatsheet-campaign-payments-staff-connected-firms/

The more I read about Romney's campaign, the more I realize a) that its constant problems are really just a reflection of the fundamental problems with the entire management/consultant/LBO structure Romney grew up in, and b) that it (and thus our financial sector) really resembles the PRC or other heavily corrupt governments, with nepotism and siphoning off funds being the order of the day. So I guess that's pretty funny.

Doesn't surprise me at all. Romney and his PACS really seem to be wasting a lot of money. Even though they hold the edge in fundraising all combined it seems they are still at a significant disadvantage in both ground game and air game. Obama's campaign knows how to get the bang out of every buck.

 

[ido]

So they will become what Democrats were from 2000-2008 lol

Well, during 2000-2008, we did kind of doom ourselves into a recession.

 

[Link]

I've long suspected that Romney was actually really really bad with money- he never had to learn to be good with it- while Obama is really good with money, resulting in an Obama edge if the two were to have the exact same amount of money.

I'd actually love to find more analysis about candidates' wealth, the source of it (trust fund, entrepreneurship, etc), and their eventual successes/failures, particularly in terms of campaign approach and monetary policy. Because it'd be way more interesting than this chicken little shit, for fuck's sake.

This is my feeling too. All these people saying Romney should be president because of his great business sense, but what proof of that is there? Doesn't Obama have a much better track record investing in companies?

 

[dabig2]

Doubtful.

Indeed. Instead of happy, gleeful, and loud racists they'll just be angry, bitter, and loud racists.

 

[Patriots7]

God.

I looked at 538 this morning, and the hopium was flowing strong. Now I'm worried about the effects on the storm on the election...thanks Poli-Gaf

 

[Clevinger]

Well, the obnoxious conservatives at my job were quiet as mouses after the VP and the second and third debates. They could have easily been going "Fuckin' Candy Crowley was in the tank for Obummer!" or whatever, but they were just silent about it all.

It was delicious.

 

[PhoenixDark]

If Romney loses we'll hear a lot of bitter RNC folks complaining about the campaign paying these consultants instead of actually expanding the map with a ground game. Of course if he wins we'll hear about how brilliant Romney is as a business man, and how he'll effectively run the White House the same way. So IMO its hard to take any position on the LA Tines article until this thing is over, and we know who is setting the narrative (and why).

Romney seems well positioned to win IMO, but it does seem like he could have used more of that money to really GOTV.

 

[Hawkian]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByzxFQSlyDA&sns=fb

 

[syllogism]

Romney isn't running groundgame at all, they decided very early on that local RNC branches would be in charge of get out the vote

 

[gkryhewy]

IRomney seems well positioned to win IMO

Remarkable that you still believe this, all evidence to the contrary and just more than a week prior to election day.

 

[ido]

Honestly, the most entertainment will come from Fox News(Hannity, particularly) and Rush.

I listen to talk radio for fun at work... I am not the only person who thinks Dennis Miller is a complete chinstrap, right? I look forward to his disappointment quite a bit.

 

[Link]

Someone explain to me why people are worried about the storm affecting the election. Are only Democrats going to have trouble getting to the polls?

 

[Revolver]

Look on the bright side. If Obama wins, your workplace will be quiet as shit on November 7th. Lots of mopey racists with their heads down.

It's depressing though. A lot of the people I know never really came off as racist rednecks before. Even when 2008 happened there didn't seem to be much grumbling. But healthcare sure changed all that. I never thought that with two wars going on and a collapsing economy these people would get so outraged over health insurance.

 

[B-Dubs]

Honestly, the most entertainment will come from Fox News(Hannity, particularly) and Rush.

I listen to talk radio for fun at work... I am not the only person who thinks Dennis Miller is a complete chinstrap, right? I look forward to his disappointment quite a bit.

No, he definitely went off the edge after 9/11

 

[markatisu]

Honestly, the most entertainment will come from Fox News(Hannity, particularly) and Rush.

I listen to talk radio for fun at work... I am not the only person who thinks Dennis Miller is a complete chinstrap, right? I look forward to his disappointment quite a bit.

And secretly they will be overjoyed with Glee, Obama in the White House for 4 more years means millions and millions in revenue for them

 

[TacticalFox88]

Nov 6 can't come soon enough for anxiety to end

I'd agree with you, until I remembered one thing: Congress. -______-

Dems don't take the House. DOOOOOOOOM

 

[Red Blaster]

Watching Bill Maher, got damn Nate Silver is awkward on TV

 

[border]

Someone explain to me why people are worried about the storm affecting the election. Are only Democrats going to have trouble getting to the polls?

The attitude is that poor/minority voters will have a harder time getting to the polls in the wake of a natural disaster.

The presumption is that Romney's mega-rich supporters will just helicopter in to the polls, or drive through the rubble in their Hummers.

I think what's forgotten is that a lot of Romney supporters will have just had their mobile homes destroyed.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Gallup dose of doom coming in 9 minutes. The best part of my day.

 

[Xdrive05]

Someone explain to me why people are worried about the storm affecting the election. Are only Democrats going to have trouble getting to the polls?

Not my claim, but it probably goes something like this:

Higher overall voter turnout is largely more beneficial to Democrats. The people most affected by natural disaster are the poor and working classes, which largely lean Democratic (when they do vote). And the states affected by the storm are almost exclusively blue states.

 

[ido]

And secretly they will be overjoyed with Glee, Obama in the White House for 4 more years means millions and millions in revenue for them

This is so true. You're the type of caller they would talk over and hang up on.

 

[ezrarh]

The attitude is that poor/minority voters will have a harder time getting to the polls in the wake of a natural disaster.

The presumption is that Romney's mega-rich supporters will just helicopter in to the polls, or drive through the rubble in their Hummers.

I think what's forgotten is that a lot of Romney supporters will have just had their mobile homes destroyed.

And seniors will have a harder time getting anywhere. I don't think those powered wheelchairs are rated to go through a flood or over broken tree branches.

 

[Clevinger]

Watching Bill Maher, got damn Nate Silver is awkward on TV

He's gotten better since 2008 though.

 

[apana]

I am still worried about Wisconsin, Romney sees it as an alternative path. According to Republicans their early voting has been better than in 2008. Does anyone live in that state and have info about how many ads you have been seeing? Oh and Romney now has a solid 1 point lead nationally, bad news.

 

[ido]

The presumption is that Romney's mega-rich supporters will just helicopter in to the polls, or drive through the rubble in their Hummers.

lol this is great.

Gold, Jerry.

 

[Particle Physicist]

The LA Times has a theory as to why Romney keeps running out of money:



http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-campaign-payday-20121027,0,6084625.story

Rather unilluminating infograph: http://graphics.latimes.com/cheatsheet-campaign-payments-staff-connected-firms/

The more I read about Romney's campaign, the more I realize a) that its constant problems are really just a reflection of the fundamental problems with the entire management/consultant/LBO structure Romney grew up in, and b) that it (and thus our financial sector) really resembles the PRC or other heavily corrupt governments, with nepotism and siphoning off funds being the order of the day. So I guess that's pretty funny.

The more I read about how Romey runs his campaign the more I think that a Romney presidency may mean one of the most corrupt governments of my lifetime. Anyone associated with him is going to make a shit ton of money with his presidency.

 

[codhand]

i've taken enough stats classes to know that stats can lie and be manipulated to produce any result. now i'm not saying wang and his friend at the ivory tower down the street, silver, are cooking the books but they do have very skeptical methodologies.

Daily Caller link? Really? You think this helps your point?

 

[B-Dubs]

Daily Caller link? Really? You think this helps your point?

And another one gets snared in the net.

 

[Clevinger]

The more I read about how Romey runs his campaign the more I think that a Romney presidency may mean one of the most corrupt governments of my lifetime. Anyone associated with him is going to make a shit ton of money with his presidency.

Modern day Nixon.

 

[Red Blaster]

I am still worried about Wisconsin, Romney sees it as an alternative path. According to Republicans their early voting has been better than in 2008. Does anyone live in that state and have info about how many ads you have been seeing? Oh and Romney now has a solid 1 point lead nationally, bad news.

PPP on Thursday showed Obama up 6 there, why so worried?