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[Y2Kev]

I know MTA has made a lot of flood mitigation investments over the last few years, which should help significantly. In any case, people don't drive or take subways to vote in the big cities -- they walk a couple of blocks. I don't mean to diminish the threat of the storm- it appears likely to result in significant damage. I don't think it's a realistic threat to big-city turnout, however.

I believe it's much more likely to damage turnout numbers in RURAL areas (aka Romney supporters). Driving will be difficult with flooded roads and trees down.

There are more polling places in NYC and Philly than there are in like the entirety of the amorphous blob of red states out west.

edit: This is what I get for quoting a post from like two hours ago.

 

[richiek]

Don't be so sure. Philly is one thing, but New York?

This storm looks quite scary for NYC. I've never seen anything like it, and its barometric pressure just dropped to 957, well before it was modeled to do so. A strong hurricane like storm heading into central or northern new jersey could EASILY render NYC subways completely useless for weeks from flooding on Manhattan and elsewhere, and in the worst case scenario could actually significantly flood Manhattan itself.

For fucks sake. NYC was fine after Irene. The subways were only shut down for like 2 days at most. it'll be handle Sandy. This chicken littling is getting out of hand.

 

[Sirpopopop]

As for the storm NYC will be fine, we might lose subway, but our power system is all buried so it's doubtfull is goes down for long at all. Westchester might have issues. As gwerky pointed out we all walk to the polls.

Ct might look different, they got fucked by the October storms last year, and its going to mess with nh, but I'm not sure of where the nh strongholds are and if a storm is worse for dem or repub turnout.

Generally voter depressing events help out Republicans.

However, the main brunt of Sandy is going to be in extremely safe blue states for the most part. I don't think Virginia is going to be hit as hard as NYC/NJ/Delaware/Maryland/PA. In the presidential election, even with a depressed turnout, the road for Republicans in those states is nigh impossible to overcome, except for PA.

The only area where it could have an effect is in Philadelphia.

Edit: The storm as presently constituted looks a lot worse than Irene.

http://epawablogs.com/epawa-alert-discussion-for-hurricane-sandy-1029-02/

Putting the election aside, this is a very dangerous storm, and a lot of people could be in danger.

 

[gkryhewy]

The only area where it could have an effect is in Philadelphia.

I hope you can feel my facepalm from my couch in center city Philadelphia. Please confirm facepalm receipt.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Ras is R 50 - O 46

No post debate national bump from Ras at least.

 

[Cheebo]

In 2008 the only two daily trackers were Rasmussen and Gallup. If that was the case this time around there would be a lot more people freaking out I suspect.

 

[Sirpopopop]

I hope you can feel my facepalm from my couch in center city Philadelphia. Please confirm facepalm receipt.

So, are you saying you know more than the experts?

 

[RockTurtle]

In 2008 the only two daily trackers were Rasmussen and Gallup. If that was the case this time around there would be a lot more people freaking out I suspect.

going to vote after my exam. anywhere i can find a list of early voting polls?

 

[gkryhewy]

So, are you saying you know more than the experts?

Okay, you HAVE to have felt this one.

 

[Sirpopopop]

Okay, you HAVE to have felt this one.

I guess not then.

If that's all you can resort to...

 

[cartoon_soldier]

In 2008 the only two daily trackers were Rasmussen and Gallup. If that was the case this time around there would be a lot more people freaking out I suspect.

Pretty sure Ras showed Obama to 50% for the weeks leading into Election.

 

[gkryhewy]

I guess not then.

If that's all you can resort to...

I refuse to repeat the same points that have been made ad nauseum over the last couple of pages about why the election-distrupting capabilities of any storm one week prior to election day on the City of Philadelphia are extremely minimal. If you choose to remain paranoid about this, be my guest.

 

[Cheebo]

Pretty sure Ras showed Obama to 50% for the weeks leading into Election.

Yeah, both showed Obama up big. I mean if we only had Ras/Gallup as our daily trackers this time like we did in 2008. Not that their numbers somehow matched their 2008 numbers.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

https://www.mittromney.com/donate/seven-in-seven

Expand the map...you would only need to do that if you aren't winning OH like you keep saying you are "on track" to

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Fucking Nate lol

Terrible news for Obama. Diablos, FREAK OUT.

 

[Tamanon]

Obama campaign came by today to see if the former resident needed a ride to the polls. GOTV

 

[Incognito]

so with ras and gallup basically the same, and ABC and PPP also mirroring each other, looks like RAND is the outlier now.

 

[gcubed]

wait, we are actually seriously talking about election impact from this storm in PHILADELPHIA?

 

[gkryhewy]

wait, we are actually seriously talking about election impact from this storm in PHILADELPHIA?

Nobody serious is doing that.

 

[Sirpopopop]

I refuse to repeat the same points that have been made ad nauseum over the last couple of pages about why the election-distrupting capabilities of any storm one week prior to election day on the City of Philadelphia are extremely minimal. If you choose to remain paranoid about this, be my guest.

I stated it could have an impact.

All I'm seeing are the same rehearsed silly arguments that amount to, "Irene DIDN'T AFFECT ME! THIS STORM WON'T AFFECT ME!"

To say it has a zero percent chance of having an effect (which is what you are saying if you disagree with me) is simply absurd. If the storm hits as expected, it will have some kind of impact. It's going to be the worst storm to impact the area in at least 20+ years, if not more.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Examples?

I'd pay for someone to ask "what does love feel like to you"

Romney: 'Have you looked at your pension?'

 

[Manmademan]

Sandy definitely has voter turnout depressing potential.

There are areas in the northeast that could be without power 7-10 days. http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981726350

Assume those are going to be areas with low voter turnout. It may not have much impact on the presidential impact, but it will impact things down the line, especially for House races.

To say that Sandy won't have an influence on the election is silly. There is a good possibility it could have an impact, if it's as strong as expected. Whom it will help, and whom it will hurt is something we won't know until after the storm hits.

This is ridiculous.

There have been several hurricanes to hit the northeast (I live in the Philadelphia Area) in the 30-odd years I've been here, none of which interrupted power for more than a few hours in high density areas. Suggesting there will be an impact a WEEK out is lunacy. It's never happened. (edit: to be clear, the jersey SHORE is a different situation, it's going to be hit harder for obvious reasons)

The electrical grid and public utilities are simply too robust. You'll have some downed trees and wires from high winds, but this is common and the local power companies are used to dealing with it.

At the worst some out of the way rural areas might be knocked out for a day or two (this happens frequently in the pocono mountains) but population density isn't anywhere near high enough to have any kind of impact on the race.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Ras is R 50 - O 46

No post debate national bump from Ras at least.

What was Obama going to get a bump from, being a big meanie?!?!

 

[gkryhewy]

All I'm seeing are the same rehearsed silly arguments that amount to, "Irene DIDN'T AFFECT ME! THIS STORM WON'T AFFECT ME!"

And which arguments are those, champ? Certainly not any that I've made.

To say it has a zero percent chance of having an effect (which is what you are saying if you disagree with me) is simply absurd. If the storm hits as expected, it will have some kind of impact. It's going to be the worst storm to impact the area in at least 20+ years, if not more.

Yes, it has some chance of an impact. Outside urban areas.

Your paranoia would only make sense for urban areas if election day were this tuesday, not next tuesday.

 

[gcubed]

I stated it could have an impact.

All I'm seeing are the same rehearsed silly arguments that amount to, "Irene DIDN'T AFFECT ME! THIS STORM WON'T AFFECT ME!"

To say it has a zero percent chance of having an effect (which is what you are saying if you disagree with me) is simply absurd. If the storm hits as expected, it will have some kind of impact. It's going to be the worst storm to impact the area in at least 20+ years, if not more.

it will most definitely have an impact. Monday and Tuesday. Not NEXT monday and tuesday.

 

[Incognito]

What was Obama going to get a bump from, being a big meanie?!?!

yeah, a campaign centered around big bird, binders, and bullshitters isn't exactly change we can believe in.

 

[Chumly]

What was Obama going to get a bump from, being a big meanie?!?!

I dunno Romney got a bump for being a lier so I wouldn't count anything out.

 

[Amir0x]

yeah, a campaign centered around big bird, binders, and bullshitters isn't exactly change we can believe in.

but it is change you can sort of believe in, if you squint a little

 

[Manmademan]

it will most definitely have an impact. Monday and Tuesday. Not NEXT monday and tuesday.

Exactly. Irene did nothing. Even the "snowmageddon" blizzards that dropped 3 or 4 feet of snow in a couple days did nothing.

I was around for Floyd in 1999 and Gloria in 1985. People were cruising around flooded streets in boats after floyd (which dumped over a foot of rain in 24 hours) and even that was basically a memory in a couple of days.

 

[AlteredBeast]

I dunno Romney got a bump for being a lier so I wouldn't count anything out.

Romney said "please", though. That Cocky Obama and his sidekick were guffawing, pleading for more time when they already had talked more and made everybody (except the moderator's, who they obviously had in their pocket) feel dumb!

 

[Sirpopopop]

And which arguments are those, champ? Certainly not any that I've made.

Your points make sense referring to the city itself. I should have made this clearer, but I was referring to the region, and not just the city.

The arguments I'm referring to are the ones made by the likes of Manmademan and richiek.


Again, as I stated earlier we won't know the impact of the storm until after it hits, but to say it will have no impact on the election is premature.

 

[Sirpopopop]

Exactly. Irene did nothing. Even the "snowmageddon" blizzards that dropped 3 or 4 feet of snow in a couple days did nothing.

I was around for Floyd in 1999 and Gloria in 1985. People were cruising around flooded streets in boats after floyd (which dumped over a foot of rain in 24 hours) and even that was basically a memory in a couple of days.

http://epawablogs.com/epawa-alert-discussion-for-hurricane-sandy-1029-02/

Seems like it could be a lot worse than Irene.

 

[Link]

The Romney campaign really has done an amazing job of directing the narrative that only Obama is being negative and that means Romney, with all his positive messaging, has momentum.

 

[AlteredBeast]

The Romney campaign really has done an amazing job of directing the narrative that only Obama is being negative and that means Romney, with all his positive messaging, has momentum.

Republican messaging is best messaging. It is unfortunate that they can't use their forces for good.

 

[BertramCooper]

NYC and Long Island were fine after Irene, but the mid and upper Hudson Valley got totally fucked by her.

It was ugly.

 

[XenodudeX]

Just voted in Jacksonville. +1 Obama

 

[Manmademan]

http://epawablogs.com/epawa-alert-discussion-for-hurricane-sandy-1029-02/

Seems like it could be a lot worse than Irene.

That link says 45-65 mph for the inland areas (i.e. not the shore.)

This is exactly as fast as Irene, so...yeah, it's a joke.

Gloria (1985) was 80-105mph when it made landfall in 1985, and like every other hurricane was totally forgotten about in a couple of days. This storm is a complete non issue.

 

[Jackson50]

Holy fuck.

This better not ruin the election. Can't anything go right ffs.

What would happen in a state of emergency should it occur during election day, or its effects are felt until then? I.e. the storm is so bad people have to relocate temporarily and cannot vote.

Wow. I'm surprised at such unbridled optimism from you. My friend is a meteorologist, and he tells me this will be historically devastating. Think about that. This could be very BAD for Obama. Epic ffs. It's like everything's against Obama.

 

[Amir0x]

That link says 45-65 mph for the inland areas (i.e. not the shore.)

This is exactly as fast as Irene, so...yeah, it's a joke.

Gloria (1985) was 80-105mph when it made landfall in 1985. This storm is a complete non issue.

not really. because that is not the only way to measure a storm. One, the size of this storm is nearly unprecedented when it hits. It's MASSIVE in size, and when it combines up here, it's going to be a mess. And two, it's the speed of the storm. This storm is going to move tortuously slow over the area as compared to Irene, dumping far more rain.

My friend is a meteorologist, and he tells me this will be historically devastating. Think about that. This could be very BAD for Obama. Epic ffs. It's like everything's against Obama.

Hahaha, you're so mean. You're probably giving Diablos a fucking stroke right now lol

 

[AlteredBeast]

Even Mother Nature is a Republican...

 

[gkryhewy]

That link says 45-65 mph for the inland areas (i.e. not the shore.)

This is exactly as fast as Irene, so...yeah, it's a joke.

Gloria (1985) was 80-105mph when it made landfall in 1985, and like every other hurricane was totally forgotten about in a couple of days. This storm is a complete non issue.

Well, no, it's not a complete nonissue. The differentiating factor for this storm is not that it's particularly powerful, but that it's enormous -- so a very wide area will be impacted by high winds and flooding. However, the localized impact in any individual place is unlikely to be catastrophic.

 

[Tim-E]

I cannot stomach this chicken littling about a storm impacting an election. I'm taking the weekend off from PoliGAF. See you guys on the other side of the Greatest Storm in Human History.

 

[Link]

Even Mother Nature is a Republican...

Well, she is pretty old.

 

[Manmademan]

not really. because that is not the only way to measure a storm. One, the size of this storm is nearly unprecedented. It's MASSIVE in size, and when it combines up here, it's going to be a mess. And two, it's the speed of the storm. This storm is going to move tortuously slow over the area as compared to Irene, dumping far more rain.



Hahaha, you're so mean. You're probably giving Diablos a fucking stroke right now lol

"rain" isn't going to knock out power for a week. It's high winds and downed trees that do that.
Floyd dumped a ton of rain in the area (about 15 inches in a day) and was completely a non issue.

"snowmageddon" dumped 4 feet of SNOW in a few days (which is worse than rain, since the weight of snow/ice will collapse roofs and topple trees), in addition to high winds and again did nothing to the power grid.

suggesting that this storm will somehow affect the area a week out when no other storm in living memory has done so is ridiculous.

Well, no, it's not a complete nonissue. The differentiating factor for this storm is not that it's particularly powerful, but that it's enormous -- so a very wide area will be impacted by high winds and flooding. However, the localized impact in any individual place is unlikely to be catastrophic.

let's be clear, when i say "nonissue" I'm speaking in regards to election turnout 7 days later. The immediate impact (within 1-3 days) will be an issue. After that? not really.

 

[ido]

Nate Silver was great on Real Time last night; I just finished watching it.

Despite what Nate says about Gallup, it is still a little disheartening to know that those polls are not tightening up more. Thankfully the odds of Obama winning the important state polls(OH) are... forever in our favor.

 

[Incognito]

I cannot stomach this chicken littling about a storm impacting an election. I'm taking the weekend off from PoliGAF. See you guys on the other side of the Greatest Storm in Human History.

hope you make it out alive!

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

I cannot stomach this chicken littling about a storm impacting an election. I'm taking the weekend off from PoliGAF. See you guys on the other side of the Greatest Storm in Human History.

It really is ridiculous. If its nit one thing chicken littling over its another.

 

[XenodudeX]

Nate Silver was great on Real Time last night; I just finished watching it.

Despite what Nate says about Gallup, it is still a little disheartening to know that those polls are not tightening up more. Thankfully the odds of Obama winning the important state polls(OH) are... forever in our favor.

The Gallup and Ras polls really do bug me. Hopefully they're the ones that are wrong and not the others.

 

[Mgoblue201]

Generally voter depressing events help out Republicans.

Most of the early voting that will matter to the election is occurring far enough inland that I don't think the hurricane will have a significant effect on turnout. It would be unfortunate if it depressed early voting in North Carolina, but Obama only has an outside shot to win that state anyway. One important factor, as the article indicates, is probably how the administration responds to the hurricane. In order to actually lose NC and FL due to the hurricane, however, those states would have to be remarkably close anyway, which would actually be an improvement on Obama's position now.

 

[Cloudy]

I wonder how the storm will affect polling in those states