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[Sirpopopop]

I've always wondered:

Does Fox News actually have higher ratings during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Remarkable that you still believe this, all evidence to the contrary and just more than a week prior to election day.

All it takes is one Ohio surprise and Romney wins.

I live in a pretty mixed, predominantly liberal area but I found the belly of the beast two years ago while working for the census. There are two major universities within 5-30 minutes of where I live so naturally there are lots of democrats. Still, during the census I had to walk down some streets I've never seen or visited before and found plenty of tea party types. We were told some people would not trust us due to conspiracies, and these folks were downright hostile.

At one point I ran across some Mormons who were going door to door too and we started laughing about just how little luck we had with getting anyone to talk to us lol

 

[Mgoblue201]

I'm surprised that people still fall for Incognito's trolling. I mean, it's right there by his name.

And it wasn't in '08? Everyone claims '08 as a massive swing election and we saw a 1.7% bounce over '04.

If we hold at '08 numbers most likely voter models will have underestimated voter turnout and Obama is going to win states no one expected him to win (like NC).

One recent poll did suggest that a majority of people viewed this election as more transformative; the ability of the winner to shape the next four years, or potentially undo the progress of the last four, is clear. Unfortunately, I don't have a link on hand right now.

I don't think that necessarily means Obama will win states like NC, because the fall in support will most likely counteract any gains made from improved turnout (which I only suggested may occur, not that it's definitive).

 

[Link]

And another one gets snared in the net.

Vintage Lonestar.

I've always wondered:

Does Fox News actually have higher ratings during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations?

I'd guess yes.

 

[3rdman]

I'm in line in Florida...still waiting...3 hours and counting...ugh.

 

[pigeon]

Oh and Romney now has a solid 1 point lead nationally, bad news.

pop-gaf gif

 

[-PXG-]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByzxFQSlyDA&sns=fb

I was just about to post this.

 

[apana]

PPP on Thursday showed Obama up 6 there, why so worried?

I didn't know that. Strange how Real Clear Polls doesn't update their site.

 

[speculawyer]

The LA Times has a theory as to why Romney keeps running out of money:



http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-campaign-payday-20121027,0,6084625.story

Rather unilluminating infograph: http://graphics.latimes.com/cheatsheet-campaign-payments-staff-connected-firms/

The more I read about Romney's campaign, the more I realize a) that its constant problems are really just a reflection of the fundamental problems with the entire management/consultant/LBO structure Romney grew up in, and b) that it (and thus our financial sector) really resembles the PRC or other heavily corrupt governments, with nepotism and siphoning off funds being the order of the day. So I guess that's pretty funny.

lol and we thought cain & newts campaigns were rackets.

 

[FleckSplat]

Good thing Hurricane Sandy is a female, otherwise Republicans may say that God meant it to happen.

 

[PhoenixDark]

He's gotten better since 2008 though.

He looks worse IMO. In 2008 he looked like a disorganized but highly cocky nerd bordering on looking badass; he wasn't wearing glasses, he tried a few bad jokes, etc; this was especially the case when he was on Olbermann's show

This year he looks like he makes more money, but the glasses, sweating, and tight clothes make him look like Dax at a house party. Totally out of place, and you can tell he wants to run home and play video games.

Last night the Rueters lady was trying her hardest to make him feel comfortable and he wasn't having it lol

 

[Frank the Great]

you guys realize obama doesn't even need ohio with NV/IA/CO/NH?

i am pretty confident about almost all of those going blue due to ground game + early voting + hispanics. while NH is less predictable it should still go blue in the end.

my point is chill the fuck out people.

 

[Y2Kev]

He looks worse IMO. In 2008 he looked like a disorganized but highly cocky nerd bordering on looking badass; he wasn't wearing glasses, he tried a few bad jokes, etc; this was especially the case when he was on Olbermann's show

This year he looks like he makes more money, but the glasses, sweating, and tight clothes make him look like Dax at a house party. Totally out of place, and you can tell he wants to run home and play video games.

Last night the Rueters lady was trying her hardest to make him feel comfortable and he wasn't having it lol

I totally disagree. At least he has washed his hair since 2008.

 

[Red Blaster]

Also when did Michael Steele start sounding reasonable

 

[B-Dubs]

Good thing Hurricane Sandy is a female, otherwise Republicans may say that God meant it to happen.

Oh my god, Sandy is trying to abort us!

 

[Tamanon]

Also when did Michael Steele start sounding reasonable

When he became unemployed.

 

[gkryhewy]

All it takes is one Ohio surprise and Romney wins.

If he needs a surprise, then he's not very well positioned to win.

 

[Cheebo]

Todays gallup still has Romney up 6

But Obama's approval dropped 4 points.

49 Disapproval
46 Approval

I believe this is the lowest they have had it in a long time.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Ouch at that approval

 

[gkryhewy]

The approval is all over the place. It was at a multiyear high just a few days ago. Really bizarre.

 

[Clevinger]

Todays gallup still has Romney up 6

But Obama's approval dropped 4 points.

49 Disapproval
46 Approval

I believe this is the lowest they have had it in a long time.

Damn. Looks like people do care about Libya, huh. Good job on Fox for exposing the truth.

 

[Cheebo]

Looking back on their chart this is Obama's lowest approval rating since March.

 

[bananas]

Something's up with 538. Loaded it up and was greeted with this. Not gonna lie, my heart skipped a beat.

 

[gkryhewy]

Damn. Looks like people do care about Libya, huh. Good job on Fox for exposing the truth.

No, no one cares about Libya.

 

[Clevinger]

No, no one cares about Libya.

Yeah, I think I'll trust Gallup more than Neogaf poster gkryhewy. How do you even pronounce that? It sounds foreign.

 

[saelz8]

This year he looks like he makes more money, but the glasses, sweating, and tight clothes make him look like Dax at a house party. Totally out of place, and you can tell he wants to run home and play video games.

He was on Maher last night, and he mentioned looking forward to the campaign being over so he has more time to play video games.

Nate Silver, GAF lurker?

Also when did Michael Steele start sounding reasonable

He'll say reasonable things when pressed on them, but conveniently brush them aside right afterwards. He's a AAA "But"er.

 

[markatisu]

Todays gallup still has Romney up 6

But Obama's approval dropped 4 points.

49 Disapproval
46 Approval

I believe this is the lowest they have had it in a long time.

With as heavily weighted to the South as Gallup has been I am surprised its even that high.

Anyone know what Bush's was in 2004 around this time?

 

[gkryhewy]

Yeah, I think I'll trust Gallup more than Neogaf poster gkryhewy.

Feel free to draw whatever bizarre conclusions from the gallup approval rating you like.

 

[Y2Kev]

Nooooooooo Libya will sink Obama

everyone knows exactly what libya is, as evidenced by

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Looking back on their chart this is Obama's lowest approval rating since March.

A double digit swing in 3 days. What's that all about.

 

[pestul]

Is fivethirtyeight really f'ed up for anyone else? It's almost like the site is under attack.

 

[Clevinger]

With as heavily weighted to the South as Gallup has been I am surprised its even that high.

Their approval is with all adults, not likely voters (like all those southern people who are planning to vote, according to Gallup).

I wish people would just stop talking about the approval number. It's even less relevant than bringing up the Registered Voter numbers.

A double digit swing in 3 days. What's that all about.

Eight fucking days New emails.

 

[Gotchaye]

Is fivethirtyeight really f'ed up for anyone else? It's almost like the site is under attack.

Same. Slow to load, and then I'm not getting any of the actually interesting stuff in the sidebar.

 

[Cheebo]

With as heavily weighted to the South as Gallup has been I am surprised its even that high.

Anyone know what Bush's was in 2004 around this time?

Gallup doesn't use the LV model they use on the head to head matchup that people said skews southern for approval, its the standard all adults poll.

 

[Slime]

Anyone know what Bush's was in 2004 around this time?

Looks like his fluctuated as well:

2004 Oct 22-24
51 Approval
46 Disapproval

2004 Oct 29-31
48 Approval
47 Disapproval

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx

 

[Tamanon]

Is fivethirtyeight really f'ed up for anyone else? It's almost like the site is under attack.

Looks like just an update issue, went with the oldest post as opposed to the newest post.

 

[reilo]

Is fivethirtyeight really f'ed up for anyone else? It's almost like the site is under attack.

Yea, it's showing a bunch of articles from 2010.

 

[ephemeral garbage]

Same. Slow to load, and then I'm not getting any of the actually interesting stuff in the sidebar.

Yeah, I'm getting posts from 2010 on the frontpage. Weird.

 

[Cheebo]

Looks like his fluctuated as well:

2004 Oct 22-24
51 Approval
46 Disapproval

2004 Oct 29-31
48 Approval
47 Disapproval

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx

This is a larger shift, started much higher and ended much lower than that example.

 

[Aylinato]

Yeah, I think I'll trust Gallup more than Neogaf poster gkryhewy. How do you even pronounce that? It sounds foreign.

you really shouldn't trust either.

 

[Clevinger]

This is a larger shift, started much higher and ended much lower than that example.

So with this giant shift in approval, do you think Obama's going to tank in Ohio and other swing states now?

 

[pigeon]

So with this giant shift in approval, do you think Obama's going to tank in Ohio and other swing states now?

WHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON

 

[reilo]

WHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON

The trolls, definitely the trolls.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

This is a larger shift, started much higher and ended much lower than that example.

Doesn't that reflect more poorly on Gallup though? I mean what is going on with their polling that it becomes so volatile.

 

[ido]

Gallup is all over the goddamn place.

Quick, someone who is smarter than me, dissect and make sense of this.

 

[The Librarian]

I am bored at work. My apologies.

lol

This year he looks like he makes more money, but the glasses, sweating, and tight clothes make him look like Dax at a house party.

Sweetheart, you can do better than that.

WHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON

Don't mind Clevinger, he's always negative.

Given the tenor of this thread currently I thought I'd note that if Obama's lead in Ohio is really 2 points we should probably expect to see Romney ahead in at least one poll before the election.

At least link to the article, pigeon!

As a matter of probability, at least a couple polls should show Romney ahead in such a close race. Of course, when that poll comes, I’m sure a wave of Democratic panic and Republican euphoria will overtake Twitter, so let’s just establish in advanced that such a result should be expected. Start getting excited or concerned once the polls start showing movement that can be distinguished from static.

 

[Gotchaye]

538 working for me again. Obama's up to 74.4%

 

[Paches]

Gallup is all over the goddamn place.

Quick, someone who is smarter than me, dissect and make sense of this.

As Nate Silver said, there are 4 out 5 doctors who say too much cholesterol is bad for your health. Gallup is the 5th doctor.

 

[pigeon]

Gallup is all over the goddamn place.

Quick, someone who is smarter than me, dissect and make sense of this.

There's nothing to worry about. Gallup approval has been bouncing around like crazy all year. It doesn't correlate with anything. Obama was outperforming his approval, then underperforming it. It's not a useful statistic.

 

[Owzers]

So with this giant shift in approval, do you think Obama's going to tank in Ohio and other swing states now?

I did read that all Jeep production is being moved to China, bad news for Toledo.