If that's what's happening, and it certainly seems plausible, Obama's going to lose the popular vote.
Yep.
And Romney "running up the score" in the South has been demonstated in several pollsters' crosstabs, so the evidence is there; is isn't some weird, funny, let's-laugh-at-the-rednecks-again theory. Obama winning his blue states and swing states by narrower margins has also been demonstrated, so the math is indeed pointing in this direction.
In a normal election year where regional vote differences aren't very dramatic, election viewers could tell the status of the true race with a quick glimpse at the national numbers, The national numbers were a pretty good reflection of the candidates' chances in the Electoral College, and if a candidate was ahead by 1 or 2 percent, he'd almost certainly win electorally.
But with the South skewing the national figures, the national popular vote percentages are no longer a valid indicator of the shape of the race. Obama's campaign managers know this, which is why they aren't running any national polls, as these polls are glamour contests and nothing else.
In a really pervese way, the Election of 2000 may have helped Obama with this big issue. The last time before 2000 where the winner won the electorally but not popularly was in 1888, so the American voting public wasn't going to have such a possibility placed as prominently in their minds. But with Gore's loss, American voters are now more resistant to looking at only those national beauty contest numbers to get a bead on the state of the race.
Voters now know very well it's all about the key states, and media outlets are reinforcing this more than ever, That's why we'll see NBC teasing all day, "hey! We've got new Ohio and Virginia numbers on the NBC Nightly News tonight! Tune in!" If Gore hadn't lost, we'd all still be much more nervous and demoralized from lackluster national numbers. Instead, seeing that Obama is leading in Ohio and other key states has the Democratic base fired-up to get the job done.
I've seen in multiple places claims that "surely the national and state numbers will adjust by Election Day to fit each other, and the nature of those adjustments will determine the winner." But I say that no adjustment is needed. The numbers aren't closing, and if they continue not to, we may very well see it happen
cleanly (i.e., without election/ballot controversy) for the first time in 124 years.
Do I fear some of the repercussions? Sure, especially for the President's life, and for the lives of others.
But as far as legitimacy is concerned, Obama will never be "legit" in the GOP's eyes, even though he will have beaten them fairly two times. So fuck 'em. The American people accepted Bush and Hayes as fair winners, and they'll accept Obama for four more years.
