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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Why respond to a survey if you don't even know who you're voting for
Not within 50 years bro gawd
thank you. he's off by 14 years. just not serious.
eBay Huckster
Member
weren't they claiming bush would win the popular vote by reagan 1980 margins
Nope they got Ford vs Carter wrong as well predicting Ford would win
And in the last election they were rated 17th, not that Incognito's trolling needs to be debunked but we do have some impressionable people in this thread lol
If state and national polls are different, personally I'm going to give the state ones the benefit of the doubt (assuming they're all reaching the same sort of consensus). I just think, logically, it's easier to get a sample that's correct at a state level, whereas there's a whole helluva lot more variables at the national level. That, and the state level matters a lot more because of the electoral college.
Huh? Nate's 75% means that, as best his model can tell, the expected value, given the information we have, of a 3:1 bet on Obama is 0. We can play semantic games about whether this is equivalent to saying that "Obama loses 1 out of 4 times", but in general Nate's model is a good one if over the course of many elections the 75% favorites win 75% of the time and there is no better/simpler (statistically significant) predictive model for subsets of those elections (this is a necessary qualification to prevent cheating by including trivial predictions).
jamesinclair
Banned
Filling out my ballot now, want to get it in the mail before the state is under water.
Im voting Jill Stein guys, although Rosanne is quite the compelling candidate.
Sorry Barry, but your views on civil liberties are repugnant.
Im leaving the school races blank.
30 - Yes for taxes
31 - Im about to vote no I think
32 - No on union busting
33 - No on insurance rate hikes for those who choose not to drive for a bit
34 - Yes on eliminating death penalty
35 - No on making someone who urinates in public have to disclose their internet browsing forever
36 - Yes on making three strikes for serious crimes only
37 - Yes on making natural foods natural
38 - Im thinking yes, only because it's certain to lose
39 - Yes on taxing those evil foreign companies
40 - Yes
Local:
Yes on libraries,
Im voting Jill Stein guys, although Rosanne is quite the compelling candidate.
Sorry Barry, but your views on civil liberties are repugnant.
Im leaving the school races blank.
30 - Yes for taxes
31 - Im about to vote no I think
32 - No on union busting
33 - No on insurance rate hikes for those who choose not to drive for a bit
34 - Yes on eliminating death penalty
35 - No on making someone who urinates in public have to disclose their internet browsing forever
36 - Yes on making three strikes for serious crimes only
37 - Yes on making natural foods natural
38 - Im thinking yes, only because it's certain to lose
39 - Yes on taxing those evil foreign companies
40 - Yes
Local:
Yes on libraries,
Good man.
I'm really starting to think that Obama's GOTV efforts are gonna make a huge difference. NYT article yesterday gave me some reassurance.
Romney should've spent more on GOTV efforts and less on consultants.
The Librarian
Banned
Pretty sure it includes Texas. From 2006, but I don't see why they'd change the region breakdown. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2006-12-22-census-figures_x.htm
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
My point is that it's incorrect to say that Nate should be wrong 1 out of 4 times. The only way that would be possible is if we had the exact same election play out the exact same way 4 separate times in alternative universes.
In that made up example Nate would be wrong 1 out of 4 times. The real life doesn't work that way.
Thank you. So it looks like the list is:
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
West Virginia
Delaware
District of Columbia
Oklahoma
Maryland
North Carolina
Virginia
Arkansas
Out of curiosity, I tossed the table from Wikipedia showing the 2008 election results into Excel, and tagged that list as being in the South. They made up 36% of the total votes cast (46,699,670 of 131,296,985). Unless I'm missing something major (which is entirely possible) that's less than the weighting I've seen applied to some of these national polls (I think I saw a weight as high as 44% in the South in one).
Not sure what to draw from that, but I wanted to toss it out there given disparity by region.
I think the assumption might be that more people have moved to the South since the census was taken.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Gallup's model looks similar to 2010, when southern turnout - and white turnout in general - was rather high. They seem to be assuming 2012 will be a bigger election than 2008, and therefore the numbers we saw in 2010 must be raised to meet that expectation. So either Gallup is right and Romney wins the popular vote, or they're wrong and we see slightly increased southern turnout that doesn't translate in a Romney popular vote victory.
I wasn't looking at the census, just the 2008 election results. However I'm sure the trends the census have identified have continued and so would impact the comparison to 2012, over the past 4 years.
At any rate, my goal was just to size the share the south had in 2008, since I see tables breaking down the share of vote by region but had no idea how much of the total belonged in the south. Now I do.
Thanks. That % split would very much skew the results. I might to check that share real quick....hmmm, can't find a good source. But yea, if they are using 2010, that would make a big difference in their top line number.
It's impossible to dissect and make sense of noise. Gallup's approval rating has been fluctuating within the same range for a while. Attempting to derive meaning from noise is a fool's errand. Although, I wonder if the hurricane is harming Obama's approval already. This could be bad.
it would be foolish not to speculate
I think we find they are wrong, 2010 is a midterm and an exception to all voting standards.
There is no way a Southern wave earns Romney enough with the increase in Hispanics in the West and Midwest.
Not to say it won't be close but I think in the end if Obama carries the states we expect the Popular Vote will follow as minorities in general = angry bitter racist whites in the south
I saw an AP hurricane snap poll which showed more Obama supporters are going to stay home. This getting real bad real fast.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Keep in mind Gallup's performance in 2010 was less than adequate. They overestimated the GOP's performance in the generic ballot by 8 points.
Nate should be wrong 1 out of 4 times. That's the point of a 75% prediction.
I recall Nate himself pointing that out in his blog posts back during the 2008 election. If his 75% predictions are always right, then he's screwing up, because he should be predicting 99% instead.
The Librarian
Banned
eBay Huckster
Member
Jon Husted doesn't care about absentee ballots
Romney won all three debate coin tosses. His election odds are basically the same thing. Everybody panic.
My friend's a poll worker, and he said there's been a rush of Romney supporters since the storm was announced. But no rush in Obama supporters. It's getting very dangerous.
StopMakingSense
Member
I've noticed a clear increase in Romney yard signs since the storm announcement. Hopium dwindling.
Well, actually, his chance of winning all three debate coin tosses AND the election is only 1/32, so since we know he's already won the coin tosses, we know that his real chance to win is much less than 538 indicates.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/d...handedly-dismantling-the-myth-of-mitt-mentum/Nate Silver, the geeky statistician who is singlehandedly dismantling the myth of Mitt-mentum
When Charles Foster Kane takes one final look back at his tumultuous life, he encapsulates it in a single, immortal word: “Rosebud”. In years to come, when Mitt Romney takes a look back at this tumultuous election campaign, I suspect he may very well do the same. Except he will not speak of a cherished object, but a person: “Poblano”.
Poblano is the pseudonym of Nate Silver, the sabermetrician and political psephologist who has done more to influence the 2012 presidential election than other political analysts and commentator. Silver is behind The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog, which conducts a complex statistical analysis of the state of the race, and boils it down to daily estimate of the two candidates chances in the form of a mathematical percentage. Where most political commentators output is the product of briefings, gossip and personal perception, Silver deals in cold, hard facts. And at the moment, Silver’s facts are being fired like bullets into the heart of the Romney campaign.
Over the past week Romney has had a clear strategy; give the impression of momentum. Demonstrate the post-debate surge is continuing. Get people talking about how the race is his to lose. ...
And then, slap bang in the middle of all this surging and sprinting, up pops that geeky killjoy Silver. “In polls, Romney’s momentum seems to have stopped,” he announced in a blog yesterday. Coolly and calmly, Silver set about dismantling the Romney bandwagon. According to his model's “Nowcast” – the chance of either candidate prevailing if the election was held on that particular day – the trend was slightly favourable to Obama..
Nice to see him getting more recognition. And it's telling that the GOP feels the need to knock him.
Red Blaster
Member
Fuck, this news combined with the 100k people at today's Romney rally in Colorado shows that we're in for a long election night.
The Librarian
Banned
Damn. Jackson50 going all in.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The part that bugs me is how the critics act like Silver's doing it for the express purpose of being mean to Romney as opposed to because the data suggests Romney doesn't have the EV votes to win
eBay Huckster
Member
You guys are real cute with the hurricane jokes. It's not going to make people disapprove of Obama, no one is talking about that. But if you don't have power, can't drive, or your voting place doesn't have power, etc., it makes voting extremely difficult. You might be more concerned about being able to get your power back and being able to drive again. Or if your house/apartment complex is in ruins, you might not give a fuck about voting. If people near you are dying or getting injured because of this storm's impact you just might have something else on your mind.
This is nothing to scoff at. Irene was ugly. Eastern PA is what delivers this state for Dems every time. If they get hit by a serious storm I don't think there would be enough votes elsewhere to offset that.
http://epawablogs.com/epawa-alert-discussion-for-hurricane-sandy-1029-02/
This is nothing to scoff at. Irene was ugly. Eastern PA is what delivers this state for Dems every time. If they get hit by a serious storm I don't think there would be enough votes elsewhere to offset that.
eBay Huckster
Member
Liberals hate moisture. It is known.
eBay Huckster
Member
seriously, good lord
diablos is turning this into an art form
diablos is turning this into an art form
It's really disturbing what Fox is doing on this Libya story. It's quite clear to me that they are making shit up and hoping other media follows them as usual.
It's a great strategy though. Throw some outrageous shit out there and hope someone stumbles or gives a cautious answer. Then make their answer the story to drum up outrage while disappearing the original baseless accusation.
We'll see if it works in 10 days...
It's a great strategy though. Throw some outrageous shit out there and hope someone stumbles or gives a cautious answer. Then make their answer the story to drum up outrage while disappearing the original baseless accusation.
We'll see if it works in 10 days...
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