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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
786110 said:
zRMNq.jpg


?
Click to expand...


is... is... is that real?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Five hours to vote???

I have literally never waited to vote. I have always walked in, got my ballot and voted right away. In and out in five to ten minutes.

I can't imagine waiting to vote. Fuck that. Yay Los Angeles.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
ZeroRay said:
According to one of my friends, one of our local early voting sites had the line stretching out to the back. This is South Fla here, so I'm assuming the majority of those peeps were voting for Bams. Hopium!
Click to expand...
That's what it was like when I went this morning. I'm gonna go back during the week when it's not quite as busy.

Btw, you're voting, even if I have to drag you out with me.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
For your consideration: I've found the timeline for the night of 2008, showing when each state closed and when each state was called for a candidate. Geeky, but I absolutely love this stuff.

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php

Points of interest:
New Hampshire was called immediately at 8:00PM, ET
Wisconsin was called immediately at 9:00PM
Ohio was called at 9:23PM
Iowa was called immediately at 10:00PM
Virginia was called at 11:13PM
Florida was called at 11:16PM
Colorado was called at 11:35PM
Nevada was called at 11:44PM
North Carolina was called later on Thursday

Assuming it's a bit tighter this year, hopefully we'll still know about enough states at a reasonable hour so that the tear harvesting and dining may commence ASAfP.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Citing Sandy, Obama cancels some early week campaigning
President Obama will attend rallies in Florida and Ohio on Monday, but then return to the White House to monitor Hurricane Sandy, press secretary Jay Carney said in a statement Saturday night.

The storm is expected to make landfall along the East Coast late in the day Monday -- forcing the Obama campaign to cancel events set for late Monday in Northern Virginia and Tuesday in Colorado Springs, Colo. He's still scheduled to hold a rally in Green Bay, Wis., on Tuesday before heading to Ohio that night ahead of more campaigning there.

"The president is being regularly updated on the storm and ongoing preparations, and he has directed his team to continue to bring all available resources to bear as state and local partners continue to prepare for the storm," Carney said in a statement.

"FEMA has already deployed teams and has pre-staged resources to potentially affected states and areas ahead of the storm, and FEMA remains in close contact with emergency responders in states up and down the East Coast to ensure there are no unmet needs. The president will continue to receive regular briefings on these efforts, and has made clear that he expects his team to continue to lean forward as Hurricane Sandy approah "
Click to expand...
http://www.politico.com/politico44/...bama_cancels_some_early_week_campaigning.html
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
PhoenixDark said:
Obama's arrogance probably cost him the DMR endorsement. They seem to be quite a liberal paper, it's the only explanation. If Romney had demanding off the record editor discussions with papers, you guys would be laughing at him.

Oh well, he better hope his early voting lead is solid enough to stem the landslide most polls show will go Romney's way on election day in Iowa
Click to expand...


That seems so childish. What a bunch of babies.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
HylianTom said:
For your consideration: I've found the timeline for the night of 2008, showing when each state closed and when each state was called for a candidate. Geeky, but I absolutely love this stuff.

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php

Points of interest:
New Hampshire was called immediately at 8:00PM, ET
Wisconsin was called immediately at 9:00PM
Ohio was called at 9:23PM
Iowa was called immediately at 10:00PM
Virginia was called at 11:13PM
Florida was called at 11:16PM
Colorado was called at 11:35PM
Nevada was called at 11:44PM
North Carolina was called later on Thursday

Assuming it's a bit tighter this year, hopefully we'll still know about enough states at a reasonable hour so that the tear harvesting and dining may commence ASAfP.
Click to expand...

It looks like we might know by midnight if the states aren't too close. I figure Ohio will be called at the same time (or close to it), but really it will be interesting to see when New Hampshire is called. If it's called at 8 again (for Obama) it will be a short night I think.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
How dare Obombo continue to campaign in this environment? I think he should immediately cancel all events in Ohio and focus on healing the crater that is the the NE.

After that is fixed he can fix the crater left behind by Chris Christie
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Black Mamba said:
Five hours to vote???

I have literally never waited to vote. I have always walked in, got my ballot and voted right away. In and out in five to ten minutes.

I can't imagine waiting to vote. Fuck that. Yay Los Angeles.
Click to expand...

For the most part I've only waited a couple minutes in a small line. One year when I was in college I had to wait in a pretty long line, though that was probably only 20-30 minutes. My college was a pretty high turnout (but unfortunately republican) college, so the line was huge at the polling place down the street right after most of the classes got out.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Y2Kev said:
How dare Obombo continue to campaign in this environment? I think he should immediately cancel all events in Ohio and focus on healing the crater that is the the NE.

After that is fixed he can fix the crater left behind by Chris Christie
Click to expand...

You mean after the crane shows up to lift Christie out of the crater he made when he fell. :p
 
S

saelz8

Member
Puddles said:
Reality vs Liberal Fantasy - Presidential Polling
Click to expand...

Good god, that's embarrassing. This is some serious other-dimensional stuff.

HylianTom said:
For your consideration: I've found the timeline for the night of 2008, showing when each state closed and when each state was called for a candidate. Geeky, but I absolutely love this stuff.

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php

Points of interest:
Ohio was called at 9:23PM

Assuming it's a bit tighter this year, hopefully we'll still know about enough states at a reasonable hour so that the tear harvesting and dining may commence ASAfP.
Click to expand...

Man, that's going to be a long-ass wait! Good thing Halo 4 comes out that day, to keep me busy. It's going to be hard staying occupied AWAY from the news.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Y2Kev said:
How dare Obombo continue to campaign in this environment? I think he should immediately cancel all events in Ohio and focus on healing the crater that is the the NE.

After that is fixed he can fix the crater left behind by Chris Christie
Click to expand...
Ha Obombo.
 
Z

ZeroRay

Member
Link said:
That's what it was like when I went this morning. I'm gonna go back during the week when it's not quite as busy.

Btw, you're voting, even if I have to drag you out with me.
Click to expand...

I mean sure I literally live right across the street from my local polling place, I'm just confident I don't need to go. :p

My previous post involving veins and ice water was in jest, I get almost as panicky as Diablos. Well, only when I read this thread that is.
 
I

ISOM

Member
quadriplegicjon said:
That seems so childish. What a bunch of babies.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's really childish, if that newspaper was willing to switch endorsements just because obama asked for it to be off record then I have an inclination to believe they were never going to endorse obama even if they had a track record of picking democrats.
 
H

hym

Banned
Kusagari said:
The news was saying wait times were 5+ hours at some places in Miami-Dade.

I early voted for Bams in 08 and waited 5 hours in Broward. Just doing absentee this time :p.
Click to expand...

This continues to perplex me, I'm from Belgium, population of 11 million with a density of 918.6/sq mile so think of it as 10 times Rhode Island or the population of Ohio but on 1/4th the area. We are one of those crazy countries where voting is mandatory (it's not enforced as a crime anymore but few challenge it) on top of that EU citizens that live here also have the option to vote. There is no early voting either, one single day for 5 hours, each time on a Sunday 8 morning till 1 in the afternoon. Yet somehow they managed in the 15 years that I've been voting in 4 different cities in about 8 elections to never make me wait for over 20 minutes and most of the time the queue is 10min or less to none at all.

Maybe the efficiency at which elections are organized here is only a side effect of compulsory voting, but 5 hours waiting simply to cast a vote sounds extremely excessive and very discouraging to even bother, borderline obstructing democracy. I'm sure this is not a problem everywhere but clearly the demand is there to open additional polling stations right?
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
RDreamer said:
This is definitely a case of someone having an outcome and then searching for the proof. Wow.

It also makes me think I should really get into that business of telling conservatives what they want to hear. Seems like there's some money to be made, and the bar of plausibility is painfully low so seemingly anyone could jump in.
Click to expand...

We should get a few GAFers together to put together something like this the next election cycle. We'll totally go full character study and really get in the mind of these folks and see which one of us can be the first to be called as an "expert" on Fox News or one of the conservative talk radio shows.

Losers has to pitch in to buy the winner the console of their choice ;)
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Trurl said:
I'm really worried that if Sandy wipes out the Northeast that the South will become politically dominant.
Click to expand...
We've already been dominant long enough.

One of my senior year polisci classes at Ole Miss was focused solely on issues surrounding southern politics. Southern voters tend to re-elect their representatives and senators at a higher rates than the other regions of the country, which means that when the time comes to pick committee chairs and other positions, southerners are usually the most dominant - particularly when the GOP controls the legislative body.

Because of the dominance of southern politicians in D.C. over the past fifty years, there's a large part of me that would love to see a Democratic president win without a single electoral vote from the South, just so that the rest of the country can essentially tell our rednecks, "Nope. Fuck you - you've been running and ruining shit for long enough. This time, we're dragging you along with us, kicking and screaming into the future."

Still, I'd rather not take any chances. I'd like the election to be OHVA early and by a wide margin.

Also:
f43e56e6f145c8d8118322bfca36c5ca.jpg
Click to expand...
I voted today. Piece of cake.
 
P

Paches

Member
HylianTom said:
We've already been dominant long enough.

One of my senior year polisci classes at Ole Miss was focused solely on issues surrounding southern politics. Southern voters tend to re-elect their representatives and senators at a higher rates than the other regions of the country, which means that when the time comes to pick committee chairs and other positions, southerners are usually the most dominant - particularly when the GOP controls the legislative body.

Because of the dominance of southern politicians in D.C. over the past fifty years, there's a large part of me that would love to see a Democratic president win without a single electoral vote from the South, just so that the rest of the country can essentially tell our rednecks, "Nope. Fuck you - you've been running and ruining shit for long enough. This time, we're dragging you along with us, kicking and screaming into the future."

Still, I'd rather not take any chances. I'd like the election to be OHVA early and by a wide margin.

Also:

I voted today. Piece of cake.
Click to expand...

You get a free hat when you vote? Damn.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
hym said:
This continues to perplex me, I'm from Belgium, population of 11 million with a density of 918.6/sq mile so think of it as 10 times Rhode Island or the population of Ohio but on 1/4th the area. We are one of those crazy countries where voting is mandatory (it's not enforced as a crime anymore but few challenge it) on top of that EU citizens that live here also have the option to vote. There is no early voting either, one single day for 5 hours, each time on a Sunday 8 morning till 1 in the afternoon. Yet somehow they managed in the 15 years that I've been voting in 4 different cities in about 8 elections to never make me wait for over 20 minutes and most of the time the queue is 10min or less to none at all.

Maybe the efficiency at which elections are organized here is only a side effect of compulsory voting, but 5 hours waiting simply to cast a vote sounds extremely excessive and very discouraging to even bother, borderline obstructing democracy. I'm sure this is not a problem everywhere but clearly the demand is there to open additional polling stations right?
Click to expand...

A major problem is that our ballots are worded horribly, especially the amendments. The ballot in Florida this year has 10+ amendments.

Now imagine all the seniors in the booth slowly reading these amendments and trying to make sense of them.

It's a disaster.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Paches-EJ- said:
You get a free hat when you vote? Damn.
Click to expand...
Haha.. I wish. It's my straw boater hat (I love 1920s style). I always wear it when election season approaches, since the 90's.

Kusagari said:
A major problem is that our ballots are worded horribly, especially the amendments. The ballot in Florida this year has 10+ amendments.

Now imagine all the seniors in the booth slowly reading these amendments and trying to make sense of them.

It's a disaster.
Click to expand...
You aren't kidding. I had read the amendments online at home and wrote my answers down before going to vote. There was an impressive line at the polling place, but as I stood there waiting, I got to see how long each voter was taking on average. When I went to vote, I took a fraction of the time, and the poll worker was a bit alarmed at this.. until I explained that I'd brought a cheat sheet with me. She was wishing that more would do this. :/
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Kusagari said:
A major problem is that our ballots are worded horribly, especially the amendments. The ballot in Florida this year has 10+ amendments.

Now imagine all the seniors in the booth slowly reading these amendments and trying to make sense of them.

It's a disaster.
Click to expand...
I still can't figure out what any of them say, so I'm just gonna vote no on all of them.
 
B

bananas

Banned
hym said:
This continues to perplex me, I'm from Belgium, population of 11 million with a density of 918.6/sq mile so think of it as 10 times Rhode Island or the population of Ohio but on 1/4th the area. We are one of those crazy countries where voting is mandatory (it's not enforced as a crime anymore but few challenge it) on top of that EU citizens that live here also have the option to vote. There is no early voting either, one single day for 5 hours, each time on a Sunday 8 morning till 1 in the afternoon. Yet somehow they managed in the 15 years that I've been voting in 4 different cities in about 8 elections to never make me wait for over 20 minutes and most of the time the queue is 10min or less to none at all.

Maybe the efficiency at which elections are organized here is only a side effect of compulsory voting, but 5 hours waiting simply to cast a vote sounds extremely excessive and very discouraging to even bother, borderline obstructing democracy. I'm sure this is not a problem everywhere but clearly the demand is there to open additional polling stations right?
Click to expand...
A lot of times there will be much fewer place to early vote, my county only has two, than compared to Election Day, when every precinct has at least one.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
John Sides has an analysis on which way undecided voters are likely to break:

the monkey cage said:
I am going to do this differently. I don’t really trust voters to tell pollsters when they have made a decision. Much of our decision-making is essentially subconscious. Instead, I am going to assume that undecided voters will gravitate to the choice that their preexisting opinions would predict. This assumption is actually a well-known finding in research on campaigns, dating back to the earliest studies....

I will assume that undecided voters will make a decision that reflects three things: their party identification, their approval of Obama (as a “referendum” model would suggest), and how favorably they feel toward Obama and Romney (the difference between how they feel about each candidate, as a “choice” model would suggest). I estimate this model on all decided voters and then predict the choices of the undecided voters based on the model’s results. The model predicts the choices of decided voters correctly 99% of the time, which is no surprise given the factors in the model....

Here’s the first finding. The model predicts that these undecided voters will split almost exactly evenly: 50.1% for Obama and 49.9% for Romney. There is substantial uncertainty in this estimate, naturally. The 95% confidence interval for Obama’s predicted vote share is 44% to 56%....

If we focus on those undecided voters who say they “definitely” will vote—this is about 58% of undecided voters— the balance tilts more toward Romney: 44% Obama vs. 56% Romney. As in polls more generally, Romney tends to do a bit better among self-described likely voters than among voters as a whole. (Again, insert caveat about uncertainty.)

However, consider the math here. Assume that only these likely undecided voters (the 58%) actually make it to the polls. You’ve got 56% of 58% of 6.5% voting for Romney and the rest for Obama. This would add at most 0.4 points—that is, less than half of 1 percentage point—to Romney’s margin over Obama nationwide. That is, if you assume the model is correct, that we can safely ignore the underlying uncertainty, that only these undecided voters will vote, and so on and on.
Click to expand...

http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/10/26/how-will-the-undecideds-break/

Incredible news! The null hypothesis is correct! WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT
 
H

hym

Banned
Link said:
I still can't figure out what any of them say, so I'm just gonna vote no on all of them.
Click to expand...

Do you really have to answer each question for the entire ballot to count?

Surely it's only logic to leave anything you don't understand or care for unchecked.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
hym said:
Do you really have to answer each question for the entire ballot to count?

Surely it's only logic to leave anything you don't understand or care for unchecked.
Click to expand...
No, you can skip whatever you want, but I figure voting no on things that are purposely worded to confuse you is probably best. I don't need any crazy shit slipping through.
 
E

Ember128

Member
Amir0x said:
We should get a few GAFers together to put together something like this the next election cycle. We'll totally go full character study and really get in the mind of these folks and see which one of us can be the first to be called as an "expert" on Fox News or one of the conservative talk radio shows.

Losers has to pitch in to buy the winner the console of their choice ;)
Click to expand...

I'm in.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Link said:
I still can't figure out what any of them say, so I'm just gonna vote no on all of them.
Click to expand...

You should vote no. They're all horrible amendments and intentionally worded in ways by our Republican dominated government to appeal to people. The "religious freedom" one, in particular, is a joke.


bananas said:
If I remember correctly, I'm:
N
Y
N
N
N
N
N
Y
N
Y
Y
Click to expand...

2, 9, and 11 sound nice but tax breaks should not be passed by constitutional amendment and they'll all drain much needed money from local governments and public schools. And the last thing public schools in Florida need is less money. They're just amendments that tug at your heart strings but hurt the community in actuality. Amendment 9 alone will cost public schools and local governments $61 million over 3 years.

12 is just stupid. I voted no because the people of this state should not be deciding that. The board should.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Amir0x said:
We should get a few GAFers together to put together something like this the next election cycle. We'll totally go full character study and really get in the mind of these folks and see which one of us can be the first to be called as an "expert" on Fox News or one of the conservative talk radio shows.

Losers has to pitch in to buy the winner the console of their choice ;)
Click to expand...

Fuck it, I'm in. Just gotta go full retard and say the dumbest shit imaginable. Shit, I'll even make up an identity.
 
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