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[HylianTom]

For your site: you guys need a prepper advice column where the author gives more and more ridiculous advice as time goes by.

I mean.. if the growing number of communists/gays/blacks/mexicans/etc are stealing "their" country away at the ballot box, the country's complete economic collapse is inevitable, and could happen sooner rather than later. Food storage ideas, wealth storage ideas that are independant of the banks, neighborhood and home security ideas, gun reviews, gardening tips, etc.

Prepping activity is going to pick up when Obama wins, and your parody site would be wise to take advantage of this.

 

[Half and half]

Obama web ad about Mitt's fees in Massachusetts.

Man, some of these ads are fantastic. They belong in the museum of classical disses.

 

[B-Dubs]

For your site: you guys need a prepper advice column where the author gives more and more ridiculous advice as time goes by.

I mean.. if the growing number of communists/gays/blacks/mexicans/etc are stealing "their" country away at the ballot box, the country's complete economic collapse is inevitable, and could happen sooner rather than later. Food storage ideas, wealth storage ideas that are independant of the banks, neighborhood and home security ideas, gun reviews, gardening tips, etc.

Prepping activity is going to pick up when Obama wins, and your parody site would be wise to take advantage of this.

I've got a copy of the zombie survival guide, we can just adapt shit from there.

 

[MasterShotgun]

Obama web ad about Mitt's fees in Massachusetts.

 

[Chumly]

Obama web ad about Mitt's fees in Massachusetts.

Fees have always annoyed me. They should be required to define them as taxes so we don't get any of this I haven't raised taxes crap. There are essentially the same thing.

 

[jamesinclair]

Obama web ad about Mitt's fees in Massachusetts.

Now thats an ad

 

[PhoenixDark]

I keep going back to that Chambers article. I'm no stats expert, but I have taken basic stats and business stats classes. His basic arguments make no fucking sense. He re-weighs polls he doesn't like while taking polls he likes (Gallup, Ras) at face value. To make matters worse, his aggressive and childish tone makes him unbearable. The only way you'd know Silver was liberal is if someone told you, or if you visited his wiki page. His posts are quite non-parisan, and focus entirely on numbers.

This goes back to the conservative argument that fraudulent polls are used to suppress voting. A little over a month ago they were arguing the ENTIRE polling press was purposely skewing polls to keep conservatives at home. Now they see Silver's model and seem to believe his goal is to keep dems sane on the "false" idea that Obama will win. Shit is crazy...

Given how far out this guy has put himself, there really is no going back. He can't say "my model was wrong, I need to go take some stats classes." The ONLY logical next step for him is that Obama stole the election.

 

[Paches]

What happens if a presidential candidate dies before election day?

 

[Trakdown]

Romney gained .8% on 538, Nate's twitter says combination of good Ohio poll (which I must've missed) and bad VA poll.

 

[Mike M]

What happens if a presidential candidate dies before election day?

Constitutional crisis.

 

[AniHawk]

Romney gained .8% on 538, Nate's twitter says combination of good Ohio poll (which I must've missed) and bad VA poll.

maybe he didn't add purple strategies until today?

i checked tpm and rcp too and didn't find anything.

nothing on wikipedia either. maybe he got internal polling numbers or something i dunno.

 

[ivysaur12]

Obama web ad about Mitt's fees in Massachusetts.

Tax on Alcohol?

Fuck you, Mitt! We only have so many nice things in this world.

 

[Officerrob]

I keep going back to that Chambers article. I'm no stats expert, but I have taken basic stats and business stats classes. His basic arguments make no fucking sense. He re-weighs polls he doesn't like while taking polls he likes (Gallup, Ras) at face value. To make matters worse, his aggressive and childish tone makes him unbearable. The only way you'd know Silver was liberal is if someone told you, or if you visited his wiki page. His posts are quite non-parisan, and focus entirely on numbers.

This goes back to the conservative argument that fraudulent polls are used to suppress voting. A little over a month ago they were arguing the ENTIRE polling press was purposely skewing polls to keep conservatives at home. Now they see Silver's model and seem to believe his goal is to keep dems sane on the "false" idea that Obama will win. Shit is crazy...

Given how far out this guy has put himself, there really is no going back. He can't say "my model was wrong, I need to go take some stats classes." The ONLY logical next step for him is that Obama stole the election.

He only takes the Ras daily tracker at face value, he still feels the need to "unskew" their state polls when he doesn't like them:

The latest Rasmussen poll of Ohio shows the race tied at 48 percent. That means Romney will get almost 52 percent in Ohio

 

[Puddles]

Romney gained .8% on 538, Nate's twitter says combination of good Ohio poll (which I must've missed) and bad VA poll.

Goddammit. Fucking Ohio.

 

[StopMakingSense]

He only takes the Ras daily tracker at face value, he still feels the need to "unskew" their state polls when he doesn't like them:

I think he's giving all the undecideds to Romney.

 

[Trakdown]

maybe he didn't add purple strategies until today?

i checked tpm and rcp too and didn't find anything.

nothing on wikipedia either. maybe he got internal polling numbers or something i dunno.

Yeah, odd. Wish he wouldn't post this stuff until he had a write-up to accompany it.

 

[ivysaur12]

Hey quick hypothetical --

What happens if the GOP controls the House by like, 1 or 2 votes, and then enough people die/retire to switch the majority party to the Dems during the same Congress? Would Boehner still be the Speaker? Would they revote the Speaker?

 

[Officerrob]

Romney gained .8% on 538, Nate's twitter says combination of good Ohio poll (which I must've missed) and bad VA poll.

I'm not seeing this "good" Ohio poll

 

[B-Dubs]

Hey quick hypothetical --

What happens if the GOP controls the House by like, 1 or 2 votes, and then enough people die/retire to switch the majority party to the Dems during the same Congress? Would Boehner still be the Speaker? Would they revote the Speaker?

I think so, the speaker is supposed to represent the majority party.

 

[AniHawk]

Hey quick hypothetical --

What happens if the GOP controls the House by like, 1 or 2 votes, and then enough people die/retire to switch the majority party to the Dems during the same Congress? Would Boehner still be the Speaker? Would they revote the Speaker?

the the new speaker has to eat the heart of the current speaker to gain their powers. it's in the constitution.

 

[Giant Panda]

maybe he didn't add purple strategies until today?

i checked tpm and rcp too and didn't find anything.

nothing on wikipedia either. maybe he got internal polling numbers or something i dunno.

I'm not seeing the good Ohio poll and I thought the Gravis VA tied would actually pretty good for them. Best to wait what he says for the write-up I guess.

 

[ivysaur12]

the the new speaker has to eat the heart of the current speaker to gain their powers. it's in the constitution.

Well that makes sense because I was told that Pelosi is Gay Satan.

But if anyone actually knows, let me know. I was having a discussion with a friend about it and we weren't sure.

 

[MasterShotgun]

I can only assume this is the Ohio poll Nate is referring to.

 

[-Kees-]

I can only assume this is the Ohio poll Nate is referring to.

wolfblitzerdeadheat.jpg Is actually applicable in this situation.

 

[Gotchaye]

Well that makes sense because I was told that Pelosi is Gay Satan.

But if anyone actually knows, let me know. I was having a discussion with a friend about it and we weren't sure.

The House and Senate have extremely broad authority to govern their own affairs. A majority vote in the House is sufficient to change just about any rule that applies to the body. I'm pretty sure that they can vote out a Speaker at will, and at the very least they could vote to get rid of a rule against voting out a Speaker, and then vote out a Speaker.

 

[786110]

I can only assume this is the Ohio poll Nate is referring to.

link to poll

http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/presidential-race-tied-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.345675

 

[BuggyDClown]

Bad news for obama

 

[Bowdz]

Romney gained .8% on 538, Nate's twitter says combination of good Ohio poll (which I must've missed) and bad VA poll.

 

[MasterShotgun]

That Ohio poll was taken between Oct 18-23, which is primarily pre-third debate. Why are they just now releasing it?

EDIT: Well Nate did notice that. He correctly dated the poll as Oct 23.

 

[Black Mamba]

Never heard of that poll. Plus side is no Romney lead still. Longer it goes more likely lead is three.

A real tied race would show Romney up in half the polls on average. To be none is almost impossible.

 

[Paches]

That Ohio poll was taken between Oct 18-23, which is primarily pre-third debate. Why are they just now releasing it?

They wanted to sit on a tied poll for more ratings near the end of the race.

 

[Trakdown]

That Ohio poll was taken between Oct 18-23, which is primarily pre-third debate. Why are they just now releasing it?

Dunno, but I'm pretty sure it'll be averaged out soon and won't hold against polling after the last debate. It didn't do a whole lot for Mitt's chances in the model as he's still sub 30% for the forecast and at 20% for the now-cast.

 

[littleworm]

Dunno, but I'm pretty sure it'll be averaged out soon and won't hold against polling after the last debate. It didn't do a whole lot for Mitt's chances in the model as he's still sub 30% for the forecast and at 20% for the now-cast.

What is the difference between Nate's forecast and now-cast ?

 

[AniHawk]

nate weights it pretty heavily. is it a live-call poll? also:

It was weighted to correct sampling biases from the sex of the respondent and the region of residence. It did not weight based on self-identified party affiliation.

isn't this a generally bad thing?

What is the difference between Nate's forecast and now-cast ?

3.2%

Forecast is for election day, now-cast is if the election were held today.

also this.

 

[Trakdown]

What is the difference between Nate's forecast and now-cast ?

Forecast is for election day, now-cast is if the election were held today.

 

[pigeon]

Virginia has reached lean Obama (60%), and has a 14% chance of being the tipping point state -- indicating a scenario where Obama wins it and Ohio and misses many other bluer states, or a scenario where he wins without Ohio by taking Virginia.

 

[Frank the Great]

i like how obama does not need ohio OR virginia to win. if he can manage IA/CO/NH, everything else is just icing on the cake.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

What is the difference between Nate's forecast and now-cast ?

The real difference is that the forecast takes into account the possibility that something might happen between now and election day. The now-cast is what likelihood Obama would win right now. Same thing Trakdown said but with different words.

 

[AniHawk]

if more +2-3 (or ties from ras) come in from ohio come in next week, it's done. stick it with nevada.

next up: iowa and virginia. virginia's approaching where ohio was a few weeks ago.

i like how obama does not need ohio OR virginia to win. if he can manage IA/CO/NH, everything else is just icing on the cake.

it would be nice to have 303 if only so there's a problem with wisconsin or something and the win total is 293. or if the pv and ev split, but obama still gets 300+ evs instead of something a lot closer to 270.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I don't know, I guess I just don't hate taxes as much as my mom does.

She tried to give me shit as a small-business owner like, "do you want your and father's business to pay more in taxes?" I'm like, "maybe," and she literally screamed "BULLSHIT!"

 

[FyreWulff]

Interesting. I just recieved a mailing to the house that labeled 'voter history audit' and lists some of the family members here and a few of our neighours having voted or not from "Americans for Limited Government".

I don't know whether to laugh at this terrible attempt at voter intimidation by a conservative group (it's a strongly Democrat neighborhood) or laugh because Americans for Limited Government used government records provided by the government to do this.

 

[AniHawk]

Interesting. I just recieved a mailing to the house that labeled 'voter history audit' and lists some of the family members here and a few of our neighours having voted or not from "Americans for Limited Government".

I don't know whether to laugh at this terrible attempt at voter intimidation by a conservative group (it's a strongly Democrat neighborhood) or laugh because Americans for Limited Government used government records provided by the government to do this.

what state?

 

[Cloudy]

Are there internals for that OH poll? Article says there very few independents in it so GOP must be over-represented?

 

[Darkgran]

The path to 270 for Romney is almost closed.....

 

[AniHawk]

For their internals for that OH poll? Article says there very few independents in it so GOP must be over-represented?

47d-44r-9i

 

[Black Mamba]

47d-44r-9i

They probably figured out who call themselves indies but always vote one way or another and listed them as such.

 

[Cloudy]

47d-44r-9i

Kind of ridiculous but it looks good for Obama if he can still manage a tie with such a skewed poll

 

[HylianTom]

The path to 270 for Romney is almost closed.....

It's like a horror movie for the Republicans. The murderous Kenyan cannibal is after them, and they're locked in an old college building.. and each path of escape is slamming shut in their faces. Soon, the Kenyan shall dine on them, and we shall enjoy the tears!

it would be nice to have 303 if only so there's a problem with wisconsin or something and the win total is 293. or if the pv and ev split, but obama still gets 300+ evs instead of something a lot closer to 270.

Agreed. I want an EV buffer so that if one state's officials try anything hinky, it'll be futile for them.

 

[Trakdown]

Kind of ridiculous but it looks good for Obama if he can still manage a tie with such a skewed poll

Especially a pre-final debate one.

 

[FyreWulff]

what state?

Nebraska. I'll scan it and post it in here.