eBay Huckster
Member
storm surge and flooding! those things that... will barely affect urban pennsylvania relative to everywhere else in the storm's path. i almost forgot.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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StopMakingSense
Member
Do a Google image search for Irene Vermont.
eBay Huckster
Member
that was also vermont, to say nothing about the fact that erie and pittsburgh are heaps more likely to get wrecked by this than philly
(this whole tenth-avenue freakout is focusing on the wrong state anyway. pretty much all of NOVA is about to get >4" of rain from this)
(this whole tenth-avenue freakout is focusing on the wrong state anyway. pretty much all of NOVA is about to get >4" of rain from this)
PhoenixDark
Banned
Utter panic from Obama fans. Man up and have some confidence in your candidate, jeez. I know Obama isn't a leader, but perhaps look to Pelosi or Nate Silver for some damn confidence.
Anyway, I want to see more Virginia polls from big polling groups (NBC, Marist, etc) before freaking out. Winning Virginia would end the election, perhaps early in fact (10pm?)
Don't even bother, they won't believe its potential until it finally occurs.
Yup. We'd know pretty early that Romney's paths to 269EVs are all gone. I posted a link to the 2008 poll closings and state victory declarations timeline a page or two back.
edit: here's the post:
If VA goes early, we can all pop the champagne.
If NH goes for Romney, we're probably in for tenser night than anyone would've guessed. (given that NH is one of the five states that the Obama campaign officials have expressed particular confidence in)(the other four being OH/WI/IA/NV).
I'd love to see some states get called right away at closing time, but 2008 was a wave election, and this one will be closer.
eBay Huckster
Member
I lived through Katrina (while visiting family in LA that August) - don't fucking imply I won't believe potential for disaster especially when you constantly come here crying for it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Another poll in Nebraska showing a close race between Kerrey and Fischer.
Kerrey only trailing by 3, 48-45.
If he actually won... wowzuhs.
Kerrey only trailing by 3, 48-45.
If he actually won... wowzuhs.
Okay, at this point I'm joining the "I can't tell trolling from real despair/idiocy anymore" team.
Are none of you familiar with social behavior research? Mailing out voting histories to a neighborhood was found to be the most effective way at increasing the likelihood of voting. It may not be something we want going on, but it does work.
If you think the information seems fishy, though, then double check it. Voting histories are a matter of public record and in my state (NC) they can be pulled up online.
As for why a republican group wants to increae turnout there, maybe they just fucked up lol.
If you think the information seems fishy, though, then double check it. Voting histories are a matter of public record and in my state (NC) they can be pulled up online.
As for why a republican group wants to increae turnout there, maybe they just fucked up lol.
eBay Huckster
Member
...Are you telling me there's a snowball's chance in Hell of the Dems getting back up to 58?
Aaron Strife
Banned
By Wolf Blitzer logic, sounds like it.
I bet if Dems managed to get to 58, Harry Reid could do some finangling and get Murkowski and Collins to caucus with the Democrats, regaining the supermajority.
people will be losing their shit here when romney has a 64-3 or 64-7 lead around 8 est.
to prevent freakouts, everyone just imagine obama has 89 evs built-in. that's what the west will produce with nm, nv, wa, hi, ca, and or. 64-7 is actually 96-64
fuck the supermajority. kill the filibuster.
also: god damn. it's been like two weeks since any major polling's been done in senate races across the board.
Okay, now that I'm already here: When will the first results be coming in on Nov 6? And where will be the best place to follow the results, online? Apart from this thread, that is. Can't miss the doom and gloom. Looking for online stream or sth.
eBay Huckster
Member
now imagine if they manage to get to 58 and then somehow get through 2014 w/ net -1 or 0.
just look at what the GOP has to defend in 2016
i know i'll be refreshing cnn/neogaf. if i had access to a local news channel, i'd probably watch that. the local fox station out in socal was decent in 2004.
also, ohio looks closer than last time, and that was called two hours after polls close. we probably won't have a projection until 10-11 est if we do at all.
i think news channels might be ready to call things right when the west coast gets in, if it looks like an obama victory.
ryutaro's mama
Member
How is that possible with New England's polls closing around the same time the other states that will go Romney Red do?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think Reid will severely weaken the filibuster, but I highly doubt he'll actually get rid of it.
i know i'll be refreshing cnn/neogaf. if i had access to a local news channel, i'd probably watch that. the local fox station out in socal was decent in 2004.
So, I should start following the news at roughly 4pm PST, sweet. I'll be home at roughly 5... should be perfect. Now all I need is an online stream, I don't have cable.
eBay Huckster
Member
i don't know what channel i'll be watching for my election night coverage. i should probably decide soon
i know i'll be switching to fox as soon as ohio gets called for the sake of drinking games
(i also know i should start reminding people that i'm throwing an election night drinking party)
i know i'll be switching to fox as soon as ohio gets called for the sake of drinking games
(i also know i should start reminding people that i'm throwing an election night drinking party)
ohgod now I want an online FOX stream. And an election night drinking party. Gonna be hard to do up here in Canada, dangit.
the first states to close polling and will be called are very red states. nc, probably too. i think oh and va will be labeled too close to call, and vt will go blue automatically. this gives an early 64-3 lead for romney right around 7:30. it'll look like a huge lead until around 8:00, but the appearance will be that obama is behind for most of the night unless virginia and ohio get called early or florida gets called for obama or something.
it's really that first hour where people will be freaking the fuck out. there may be some legitimate cause for that if va gets called for romney immediately though.
my worst-case scenario prediction:
7:00 est
44 romney - 3 obama (va too close to call)
7:30 est
64 romney - 3 obama (oh + va too close to call) - diablos threat level red
8:00 est
107 romney - 99 obama (oh + fl + va + nh too close to call)
8:30 est
113 romney - 99 obama (oh + fl + va + nh too close to call)
9:00 est
216 romney - 163 obama (oh + co + va + wi too close to call. nh for obama, fl for romney)
10:00 est
225 romney - 179 obama (oh + co + ia + va too close to call. wi for obama)
between 10 and 11 est:
238 romney - 203 obama (co + ia too close to call. va for romney, oh for obama)
11:00 est:
281 obama - 245 romney (co too close to call. ia called for obama)
1:00 am
281 obama - 257 romney (co called for romney but point is moot)
I'll probably be going with MSNBC for the pre-victory declaration coverage; I like Maddow too much (to the point where it confuses me a bit?). Once we get close to OhioTime (or VirginiaTime), I'll make the switch over to Fox to witness their mood grow more and more dour over time. Then, once those sad sacks get boring, I'll switch back to MSNBC for what is sure to be an enduring sugar high of election euphoria.
Then, in the morning (I'll most likely be up all night), I'll go to Washington Journal so that I can hear the moans and cries of those who think that the country is now doomed. It will be ever-so-delicious.
And GAF all the way, of course. I have a list of folks here whose tears I wish to harvest.
(to be read in Professor Farnsworth's voice
Oh yes..I cannot help but smile at that like a loon every time I see it. The prospect of these two relatively early states putting the nails in Romney's political coffin.. it's wonderful, which is why that Virginia hopium was some high-grade stuff to me.
Aaron Strife
Banned
By 7:30 this election will be OHVA.
Sooooo....you didn't evacuate.
That sounds about right for a worst case scenario. Realistic scenario is probably like that too, only with VA&CO for Obama too. At least that's how I think it'll be. So... 303-235?
eBay Huckster
Member
the one time we don't drive down...
Aaron Strife
Banned
Well, we might still have a few KYNCs to work out.
eBay Huckster
Member
obama's thugs going to steal kentucky confirmed
(as in they're literally going to airlift the entire state in the dead of night when no one will notice)
call me stupidly optimistic, but i'm betting on him outperforming enough to get FL at least
290 matches the low end of the polling aggregates (rcp), with 303 hitting the top end. the only way it's not between 281 and 303 for obama is some sort of freak surge in states romney's never had a chance in, or obama outperforming all the aggregate sites and getting nc and/or fl.
I think it'll be 303. Too bad he's not getting florida, but he'll get the rest. I'm oddly calm.
Aaron Strife
Banned
347 would make me absurdly giddy.
eBay Huckster
Member
meanwhile, hawaii's about to get wiped out by a tsunami.
so do i. there seems to have been a shift in momentum towards obama in virginia, and barring any acts of god, he seems to have an edge there. it's kinda like when ohio was looking iffy-but-good after the first debate.
if fl stays too close to call for most of the night, then it bodes really well for his gotv in the state and probably speaks well for it in other states.
SECOND STATE FLIPPED BY NATURAL DISASTERS, PA AND HAWAII NOW RED, BREAKING NEWS.
Also, BC, Canada, reporting here, everything's calm and quiet.
I think everyone on here should just be on 270towin to figure out the true state of the race. I don't like the 96-64 thing because then you could just give Texas to Romney and make it 102-96 (and so on and so forth). The only states you really have to watch out for are the ones that aren't colored in (well, half of them anyway). From there, just fill in the map as we go along. Ignore whoever's currently in the lead on TV since that stuff doesn't really matter.
PA, WI, MI should all fall to Obama.
Big four to watch are OH, VA, FL, and NC. Obama wins two, he wins. If he wins OH, then big state to watch is NV (or IA).
That's pretty much all you have to watch out for. If Obama somehow loses Ohio, then you're in for a long night because he'll either have to win VA or sweep the rest of the swing states.
EDIT: Half of the post was just a general assessment of what to watch for, not necessarily responding to the quote.
I'm not crying for disaster but the constant downplaying of its impact is ridiculous.
Let's see here:
-Governors from North Carolina to Connecticut declaring states of emergency
-GT Gov warning that this may be the worst major storm of its kind in the region over the past 30 years
-Delaware ordering mandatory evacuations for coastal communities by 8pm today
-Potential subway flooding may occur in NYC; Gov Cuomo preparing to shut down subways, buses and suburban trains by today, "pending final decision" (a surge one foot higher than Irene would have really done a number on lower Manhattan)
-Beach towns on Jersey Shore are being issued voluntary evacuation plans
-Atlantic City Casinos preparing contingency closing plans
-Utility officials warning to be prepared for several days without power (at least, I would assume)
-Airlines telling customers that cancellations are likely
This isn't called crying for disaster, it's called coming to terms that there is cause for real concern over this storm. What's more is that we've never seen something quite like it.
Hobbestetrician
Member
I am in BC too. We got a tsunami warning on Vancouver Island but nothing too bad on the south end, I think it's the north end that is more worrisome (though not really).
eBay Huckster
Member
so... six completely normal hurricane-related things (mass evac, states of emergency, power outages, and travel cancellations), a governor's statement that's kind of meaningless given that there has been ONE storm like this in the past 30 years (in 1991), and NYC.
i'm not saying don't be worried about the very real human costs of frankenSandy, i'm saying stop fucking panicking about its possible electoral effects ad nauseam.
especially when you're focusing on the wrong state anyway.
i think nc's done. nevada, wisconsin, and nc are all around the same percentage points to their respective victors. the only states to watch are co, va, ia, fl, oh, and nh. ia + co + nh are a safeguard in case va + oh fail. on the other hand, if oh goes, obama's probably not getting ia or co either.
with regards to the 89 western evs, i just wanted to give people a paper bag to breathe into since all the southern stuff will build a huge romney lead early and freak some people out.
Naw, I think the Tsunami Warning got reduced to an advisory.
eBay Huckster
Member
this election won't be done until ACORN can get mickey mouse and paul newman to the polls
NC IS NOT DONE.
I haven't voted yet.
it's pretty done
it's a tie for obama at best with +6 romney at worst. things will probably settle in the 3-5 range. nc is obama's wisconsin, although romney's prospects there probably aren't as nice.
i hope i'm wrong, but i don't think the ground game can overcome the disadvantage.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It ain't over in NC guys
I know a guy
I know a guy
eBay Huckster
Member
i know a poll worker who says bev perdue replaced all republicans on the ballot with hitler. literally hitler. surely no one would vote for hitler.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Can't wait for the first round of polls to close that show Romney in the lead and the GAF freakout!
I think they're oversampling Republicans in their polls. If you reweight it, Obama is actually +15. Plus everyone knows that independents break for the incumbent 99% of the time.
I know people don't want to hear constant Intrade talk on here, but something about seeing people with money on the line freaking out is better imo lol.
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