• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

Status
Not open for further replies.

pigeon

Banned
Depending on what they show, I might reconsider my Florida prediction.

Obama hasn't managed much more than a tie there in a while from the major pollsters...

So here's my super-secret lead on Florida, from Nate Cohn:

tnr said:
Romney made larger gains in Florida after the first presidential debate than most other battlegrounds, leaving him about 1 or 2 points ahead in the Sunshine State. But the polls suggest that one reason for Romney’s strength might be a surprising group: Florida’s Latino population.

In 2008, Obama won Florida’s Latinos by 15 points with a relatively strong showing among Miami’s traditionally Republican Cuban population and the exploding and heavily-Democratic non-Cuban Hispanic population, especially the Puerto Ricans of the Orlando-Kissimmee metropolitan area.

Over the last four years, those demographic changes have continued to aid Florida Democrats, as non-Cuban Hispanics continue to flock to the state....

But Florida polls show a tighter race than expected among Florida’s Hispanic voters....

The issue might be that polls don’t weight Hispanic voters by ancestry, so if 60 percent of respondents are Cuban, polls won’t take measures to ensure that a larger share are Mexican-American or Puerto Rican. This introduces another layer of error into the already difficult task of polling Hispanic voters, and it might be influencing the numbers. Two data points are consistent with this possibility. A Latino Decisions survey found Obama ahead by 30 points in early October, and their surveys are weighted for ancestry. Similarly, SurveyUSA, the only statewide, full-population survey to find Obama leading by a double digit margin among Hispanics, disaggregated and presumably weighted by both Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanics and found Obama ahead by 40 points among non-Cuban Hispanics but trailing by 8 among Cubans, with Cubans representing 48 percent of Hispanics. Those numbers sound about right and that might have something to do with why SurveyUSA is the only recent poll showing Obama ahead in the Sunshine State.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109257/does-romneys-florida-lead-hinge-hispanics

It's only a possibility, but if there's any truth to it, AND Obama's getting a bump, then I think it's worth considering. If PPP shows Obama with a tie, then I'm going to feel pretty confident about my Florida prediction. But I actually think there's a good chance he'll be up 1, and I'll feel VERY confident.

edit:
Just a reminder that while I hold PD's avatar rights after Obama wins, I'll be taking suggestions.

Does anybody have a picture of Hillary Clinton eating a corn dog?
 
ok guys, CONTEST TIME

i want people to make an electoral map for Nov 6. Use 270towin to guide you (I'll save links; no changing links after October 31). Then, in the same post, I want a popular vote margin. For "in case of tie" purposes, I also want everyone to guess the time Virginia will be called for either candidate.


The winner will get a 20 dollar gift on Steam of their choice.

Submissions over on the last day of October 2012.


http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VXo

Obama 348
Romney 190

Sandy causes the country to come together and vote for Obama.


Popular vote, Obama wins by 1.8%

Virginia gets called at 1:36am, est the next day
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I see the polling aggregates have Obama at about 50% in Ohio and expanding his lead.

No snark here. Just pure :lol hopium. No wonder Romney is lying as he has never before about the auto industry.
 

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
I call him BO since I first learned of him. It's an amazing term of endearment and you have to pry it from my cold dead hands!

Dude, naw. The dog is Bo, the president is B-Rock The Islamic Shock. Seriously, we've been over this.
 

Arde5643

Member
the image that will cost Christie the 2016 primaries

c3JNm.jpg

Goddamn is he a pear down there.
 
I see the polling aggregates have Obama at about 50% in Ohio and expanding his lead.

No snark here. Just pure :lol hopium. No wonder Romney is lying as he has never before about the auto industry.

According to PD, it's gaining major traction.

Of course there's nothing tangible to support this assertion...you just have to trust him.

Sound familiar?
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Reduce the debt, simplify tax code, lower the corporate tax rate, give the DoD what they want (more ships, etc), get tough on China, backup up Isreal, kill Obama care,... I could go on but you asked for 5.

And btw, I'm NOT an Obama hater. I just think he has the wrong priorities and doesn't know how to lead.


How exactly is he going to reduce the debt? What is he going to do in order to simplify the tax code? How will either of these affect the middle and lower class? What does getting tough on China actually mean, and how does that contrast with Obama? How will he backup Israel, and once again, how will it contrast with Obama? What exactly does the DoD want, and how has Obama not given them what they have asked for? How will killing Obamacare help the nation? Specifics please.

I am very curious to see how far you have thought this through.
 
why are you asking how romney would "reduce the debt"

why are you not asking why "reducing the debt" is seen as a thing to work toward in the first place

(why do i not straight-up have an empty vessel signal)
 
How exactly is he going to reduce the debt? What is he going to do in order to simplify the tax code? How will either of these affect the middle and lower class? What does getting tough on China actually mean, and how does that contrast with Obama? How will he backup Israel, and once again, how will it contrast with Obama? What exactly does the DoD want, and how has Obama not given them what they have asked for? How will killing Obamacare help the nation? Specifics please.

I am very curious to see how far you have thought this through.

I point for challenged his positions and he failed to even attempt an answer.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43707680&postcount=6489
 

Gruco

Banned
So here's my super-secret lead on Florida, from Nate Cohn:



http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109257/does-romneys-florida-lead-hinge-hispanics

It's only a possibility, but if there's any truth to it, AND Obama's getting a bump, then I think it's worth considering. If PPP shows Obama with a tie, then I'm going to feel pretty confident about my Florida prediction. But I actually think there's a good chance he'll be up 1, and I'll feel VERY confident.
I'm going to try running the actual-poll average differentials against latino population for the 2010 and 2012 elections after this is all said and done. Maybe nothing, but the lingering thoughts of NV and CO being the ones who survived in 2010 make me wonder if there might be something there after all.
 
Great interview.

I'm really interested in seeing how the right reacts to a non-black democratic presidential candidate in 2016. If the next dem after obama isn't black they're gonna be hard pressed to do all this racial baiting. If its a women they'd risk pissing women off and if its an hispanic they risk that crucial voting bloc and if its a white guy then they can't really go after anything but the old "tax and spend liberal."

I think both Republicans and Democrats will run women for president in 2016.

you know what a good contingency for that is?

early voting.

I was planning on voting early tomorrow in Maryland. It's been cancelled (at least one day) due to the storm.
 
Any time we have a tax policy debate, I begin to fall asleep a bit, as the folks on one side of the debate are entirely unreasonable and like to conveniently "forget" where the top lines used to be.

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=213

toprate_historical.gif


I'd love to see us go back to where they were for most of Reagan's two terms. But for some reason, that's evil. Ugh.

I'd love to see the top rate return to Nixonian levels if only because it'd likely dramatically reduce income inequality
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
why are you asking how romney would "reduce the debt"

why are you not asking why "reducing the debt" is seen as a thing to work toward in the first place

(why do i not straight-up have an empty vessel signal)


Well, because he is a republican, and I am just asking him to explain and detail out further, I am not arguing him on the whether I find his specific points important or not.
 
BREAKING NEWS: PoliGAF continues on with business as usual

pjoqR.jpg


The presidential race remained relatively stable on Sunday, October 28th, 2012, as PoliGAF – NeoGAF’s sub-community about everything happening in US politics – continued to drown in its own nonsense, as it does pretty much every day.

In this exclusive interview with DAX poll manager Dax, though most declined citing anticipation of new polling numbers, members of PoliGAF vented their frustrations, desires, and overall views of the community they’re so lovingly a part of.

"It’s fucking tiring," user Cyan said. "It’s so bad in there. Nobody posts reasonable comments anymore. It’s all trolling, sarcasm, and exploding in panic over nothing. Even Jackson50 has succumbed to that stupid behavior."

"I couldn’t help it," Jackson50 replied when I told him what Cyan had said. "As you recall, Dax, you wanted to know what trolling from me would look like, and I guess that just pushed me over the edge. At the very least, you can tell I’m trolling because you don’t have to break out a thesaurus when you read a post of mine."

"Does that mean you were trolling me just then?" I asked.

"It’s possible," Jackson50 said slyly.

GhaleonEB, a longtime member of PoliGAF who nowadays posts more infrequently, had this to say: “I just don’t want to go in there anymore. I actually have a life outside of poll numbers and what political pundits say. Visiting that place just adds a lot of unneeded, nonsensical stress.”

Within PoliGAF are groups of posters that post in a similar manner. You have the worry-worts, those that try to remain calm in the face of any polling news, the sarcastic crowd, among others. Some users, though, very much stand out and alone.

"Most of them are political plebeians," Cheebs, one such lone poster, smugly told me. "I go into the thread to make sure they have a more knowledgeable perspective about things. I see it as a duty of mine."

PhoenixDark, popularly known as "PD," another such poster, was laid back during his time with me. "I like to troll them. Even I’m amazed how long I’ve been able to keep it up. It’s a lot easier to do it when Obama’s leading."

I had to ask: "What’s with your obsession for Hillary?"

"It’s just a thing I have, you know?" he replied.

At this point Reilo, another frequent member, barged in and punched PhoenixDark in the jaw, then left without saying a word.

HylianTom has an almost primal reason for being there. "There aren’t too many Republicans in PoliGAF. Well, I should say, 'There are no Republicans in PoliGAF,' but their tears are pure nourishment to me. Pure. I have it all planned out. See, on election day, I have it all planned. I have several right-wing website I’m going to have opened up in tabs in my browser. I’ll post the funniest comments I find in the thread."

Not all users are doing so well in PoliGAF. Diablos and Cartoon Soldier, best known for their freak-outs and worrisome posting style, have had to face a fair amount of criticism from other members. I was able to get the two in the same room.

"I actually have a panic room in my house," Diablos was proud to say. "It’s three feet of solid concrete on every side. I go in there whenever I look at the thread."

"What usually sets you off to make so many worried posts?" I inquired.

"Oh, anything really. Right now it’s Hurricane Sandy.” At this point in the interview, his hands begin to shake. “I’m trying to warn those guys but they won’t listen."

Cartoon Soldier sat in a corner of the room and said nothing for fear that media coverage of this interview would negatively affect President Obama’s reelection chances.

Some members of PoliGAF decided to have interviews in groups.

Loudninja and Tim-E got together. "It’s very easy to remain calm in the face of bad polling days. I just look at Nate Silver’s model," Loudninja confidently said. "Sometimes I smack other users down for freaking out. I just get tired of it."

"Eh. The place started get boring, so I became a character." There is a huge grin on Tim-E’s face. "Papa Joe. I think it’s hilarious given my avatar."

The two most prominent, recent additions are AniHawk and ClovingWestbrook (formally known as LovingSteam). AniHawk went first: "Sales-age kind of died when NPD decided to not release console figures. So I migrated here. Poll numbers more than satisfactorily fill my appetite for figures and numbers."

ClovingWestbrook interjected: "I’m actually an off-again, on-again member. I just waltzed right in for the final stretch."

After much pleading and begging, I set aside some time for Byakuya769. "I don’t really have much to say. I’m just happy to finally be in one of these PoliGAF write-ups."

Luckily for me, I was able to get a few words from Mr. O'Connor, aka Stinkles. "Don’t worry. We have a massive GOTV campaign with Halo 4. Obama’s not going to lose any of the youth vote because of us," Mr. O'Connor announced in the middle of his rant about the Republican Party.
 

MasterShotgun

brazen editing lynx
Any time we have a tax policy debate, I begin to fall asleep a bit, as the folks on one side of the debate are entirely unreasonable and like to conveniently "forget" where the top lines used to be.

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=213

toprate_historical.gif


I'd love to see us go back to where they were for most of Reagan's two terms. But for some reason, that's evil. Ugh.

I knew Reagan lowered taxes, but I never looked up the numbers. Jesus Christ. No wonder he's such a fucking hero to the wealthy.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I'll be at redstate, Hannity, and freerepublic - ready to harvest the choicest quotes and meltdowns I can find. If they should decide to restrict access to members-only that evening, I'll be in good shape, as I already have memberships going at all of 'em. Muahahaha!
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I'd love to see the top rate return to Nixonian levels if only because it'd likely dramatically reduce income inequality

That's really the only reason to do it (and I think its a very good one). The actual increase in tax revenue would be fairly negligable. One reason why Obama's talking point about using taxes to reduce the defecit bugs me, but I know the income inequality argument would not go over well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom