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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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HylianTom

Banned
Romney pollster skeptical about winning Nevada

In a piece that posted on POLITICO a short time ago, reporters Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan write that during a recent conference call, "Romney pollster Neil Newhouse told participants that he 'was skeptical' about the GOP challenger’s chances in Pennsylvania and Nevada."

They also point out that Newhouse's comments "contradicted the assessment Friday by Rich Beeson, Romney’s political adviser, in an interview with POLITICO where he asserted that while Nevada 'has been the toughest nut for us to crack,' Romney was still within a couple of points of Obama there."

I am sure the folks on the ground here have told Boston they have a chance to win the state. I've heard them say it. And while I believe there are several reasons why Romney is still fighting here (and he visited Vegas and Reno last week), I have to believe that smart people at the top of the campaign are indeed skeptical.
http://www.ralstonflash.com/blog/romney-pollster-skeptical-about-winning-nevada#.UI258oZSSU1

Nice to hear them admitting this. 6 more safe Obama EVs. Duh. :)

(also: went to the Obama for America store and bought a nice blue "Ohio for Obama" t-shirt. It'll be a lovely memento of this season.)
 

pigeon

Banned
I think these Ohio and Virginia polls are reflecting a 1-2 point bump for Obama after the third debate, which I hope will continue til Election Day.

Gravis has a slight Republican lean, right?

Gravis is more inconsistent than biased, but they do have a noticeable tendency to end up well on the red side of the average. They've turned in a couple of polls that were way pro-Obama, but not nearly as many. I think their rate of getting it exactly right is pretty awful.
 

giga

Member
Obama's built up a big lead among early voters in the state. 36% say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 63/36 margin. Romney's up 53/45 with those yet to vote.
Horrendous news for…
 

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Ohio voters think Obama won the debates as a whole 45/43. Looks like last 2 made up for the first one: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-47-in-ohio.html …

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Ohio voters trust Obama over Romney on both the economy (52/46) and foreign policy (54/44): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-47-in-ohio.html …

.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I think these Ohio and Virginia polls are reflecting a 1-2 point bump for Obama after the third debate, which I hope will continue til Election Day.

And this storm is going to dominate news media over the next few days. Romney is running out of time and news cycles to make-up ground in the Electoral College. We're at the point now where we count the time to Election Day in hours instead of days.
 

Amir0x

Banned
PPP: OH 51-47 O

so that makes... what... an infinity data points showing Obama ahead there in the race since the start of this election cycle and just one more day where Romney will continue to not lead in the RCP average of Ohio polls since the start of 2012 when there's only 8 days left?


but he will change that tide this week, i'm just sure of it!
 

Cloudy

Banned
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Sherrod Brown breaking open the Ohio Senate race- now leads Josh Mandel 53/42: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-47-in-ohio.html …

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Sherrod Brown's approval is 47/44. Josh Mandel's favorability is 38/51- very unpopular candidate: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-47-in-ohio.html …

I thought as much after catching their last debate. What an unlikeable douchebag
 

watershed

Banned
I had the worst dream this morning that Romney had won the election. It was election night and I was pacing around the living room with my family yelling at the TV about why people would vote against their own interests. It was terrible...
 

HylianTom

Banned
Chris Christie, regarding Obama's storm handling..

“I thank the president for his telephone call and inquiring about how things are going here and I assured him that things were going well so far. He advised me to call him at any time that things were not going well,” he said at a fire house backed with emergency personnel, residents and press.

“I appreciated the president’s outreach today in making sure that we know he’s watching this and is concerned about the health and welfare and safety of the people of the state of New Jersey,” he said.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/10/in_face_of_storm_christie_rebu.html

It just seems remarkable coming from him.
 

AniHawk

Member
now ppp's ohio data:

obombo: 1,270,080
rmoney: 725,760

election day:
barack HUSSEIN obama: 1,612,800 | 2,882,880 | 51.48%
willard: 1,899,520 | 2,625,280 | 46.88%

a 4.6% win... or exactly the same results from 4 years ago

What requires a recount? 0.5%?

i believe so, yes.
 

MasterShotgun

brazen editing lynx
I've got one more thing to lighten the mood.

About halfway home from the family gathering, my mom turned on the radio. It was on a right-wing station. I was in the mood for more laughs, so I didn't argue. I couldn't possibly hear anything worse than I what I already heard today. But then, like a gift from the liberal gods, I heard a false equivalency that would make Kosmo blush.

Some host (didn't catch the name) compared legalizing abortions to fucking slavery. It went about as you expected. He went on the moral route, but in totally the wrong direction. I can't remember the exact quote, but it was something along the lines of "If we legalize abortions saying that it's a person's right to choose whether or not to kill that child, then why not legalize slavery? By that logic, it should be a person's right to choose to own a slave." And before you ask, of course he was in favor of having abortions being illegal in rape cases.
 
now ppp's ohio data:

obombo: 1,270,080
rmoney: 725,760

election day:
barack HUSSEIN obama: 1,612,800 | 2,882,880 | 51.48%
willard: 1,899,520 | 2,625,280 | 46.88%

a 4.6% win... or exactly the same results from 4 years ago



i believe so, yes.

If PPP's early vote is roughly accurate, then Obama just needs to clear 40% on election day (or from here on out) to win.
 
Political radio is shit because there is never any informed discourse. Never a format where the host is neutral and just presents the facts with no slant allowing for civil discussion.

You get either Real Rush on the right or Fake Rush (Ed Schultz) on the left.

No point in listening to an echo chamber.
 

AniHawk

Member
If PPP's early vote is roughly accurate, then Obama just needs to clear 40% on election day (or from here on out) to win.

gravis said 20% of their respondents had voted early, but the percentage of the split was pretty similar to ppp's. i think ppp had the split at 21% or something like that a week ago. it's not too far-fetched to assume it's been growing about 10% a week. 34% may be too high, but i can see him clearing 40% in the next week.
 

Paches

Member
now ppp's ohio data:

obombo: 1,270,080
rmoney: 725,760

election day:
barack HUSSEIN obama: 1,612,800 | 2,882,880 | 51.48%
willard: 1,899,520 | 2,625,280 | 46.88%

a 4.6% win... or exactly the same results from 4 years ago



i believe so, yes.

Election over. Hopefully I win the Obama contest to get to go to his victory rally.
 

786110

Member
the image that will cost Christie the 2016 primaries

c3JNm.jpg
 

Trurl

Banned
Political radio is shit because there is never any informed discourse. Never a format where the host is neutral and just presents the facts with no slant allowing for civil discussion.

You get either Real Rush on the right or Fake Rush (Ed Schultz) on the left.

No point in listening to an echo chamber.

I enjoy the Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. :^[
 

Aylinato

Member
The more hilarious thing is how he answered no questions, all while claiming to not be an Obama hater.

Immediately starts referring to him as "BO".

I've never seen a neutral guy refer to him as "BO".

Only thing missing was 'B. Hussein Obama' to make it all complete.



I call him BO since I first learned of him. It's an amazing term of endearment and you have to pry it from my cold dead hands!
 

Tamanon

Banned
Eh, disasters are always when the President and Governors work in almost lockstep. They know the rest of it is just nonsense, disasters are when you really need to work.
 
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