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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Very telling. Sounds like they're more confident about Ohio than Obama's camp is
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Are you a joke character or not? Seriously - I don't frequent this thread but constantly see you making these ridiculous statements and then not responding to all the people that shoot you down.

Either way though, kudos to you sir. Everyone in this thread seems to love giving you all the attention you desire.

ClovingWestbrook said:
Lol at you folks treating PD like he isnt a joke character.
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gotcha :p thanks
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Very telling. Sounds like they're more confident about Ohio than Obama's camp is
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Yeah, cause the Obama campaign has never projected confidence in their chances in OH. PD is a worse flip flopper than a MITT/KERRY DBZ style fusion.

Oh and please PD, link me to where this JEEP nonsense is gaining traction and ACTUALLY CONVERTING VOTERS.

I can wait all day.
 
D

Drek

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Very telling. Sounds like they're more confident about Ohio than Obama's camp is
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Or they're blowing smoke.

Compare Romney's schedule for the last few weeks of this election with Obama's. Either Romney's people are the smartest pollsters in the nation and he knows he's got it in the bag, or they're just talking the talk but not walking the walk.

That's the only two reasons he'd pull back from all media interviews and have such a comparatively light touring schedule. Either he knows he's DOA or he's being told it's in the bag and to play it super safe.

Now seeings how no numbers anywhere else suggest that he's got it in the bag it seems rather hard to believe that is the reason he's laying it up.

I think Romney's race is now mostly focused on splitting the EV and popular vote to help de-legitimize a second Obama term while priming Ryan for the 2016 campaign.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Very telling by Kaisch. First the Jeep attack, which worked for Scott Brown in one form (the "Truck attack") and now Kaisch's comments. Obama should withdraw from the state and focus resources in NC.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
Aside from Citizens United and Gonzales v. Raich, what are some votes that Scalia and Kennedy have cast in the last decade or so that have really, really sucked?
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
obama should pull out of OH and start defending minnesota, west virginia and california. hasn't he learned anything from the shellacking gore received in 2000?!
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Officerrob said:
Very telling? It's a week before the election, he's on national T.V., and his state is considered the most important one in the nation, he's just doing his job and pushing the narrative
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Yup yup! It would be a huge story if he wasn't doing these things. He's gotta keep up appearances of a competitive race.

As for that PPP Ohio poll?
MadelineApplauding.gif
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Obama has tied or led all 17 of the last Ohio polls released regardless of company.

This is pretty much mathematically impossible if Romney is truly leading unless the pollsters are doing something wrong in their polling.

If they're using sound methods, this cannot happen. Even Obama only up 1 would make this result basically impossible. As I said before, the polling results are severely pointing to an Obama +3 (maybe higher) in Ohio race simply because there are no polls showing Romney leading.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Black Mamba said:
Obama has tied or led all 17 of the last Ohio polls released regardless of company.

This is pretty much mathematically impossible if Romney is truly leading unless the pollsters are doing something wrong in their polling.

If they're using sound methods, this cannot happen. Even Obama only up 1 would make this result basically impossible. As I said before, the polling results are severely pointing to an Obama +3 in Ohio race simply because there are no polls showing Romney leading.
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Dude, you aren't averaging in the game changer JEEP argument that Mitt is using in Republican leaning counties to get them to vote...Republican?

PD loves cherry picking polls and news.

Guarantee you going forward if a single OH poll presents itself with Mitt leading, he will harp on that one as the truth, regardless of who the pollster is.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
wsoxfan1214 said:
I've noticed you don't reply to any of the questions people are directing at you.

Hm.
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There are a lot of conservative posters that have this problem. Admittedly, they get a lot of questions directed at them all at once, but still. I argue all the time about social justice, so I don't have a ton of sympathy for people who complain about dogpiling. I have a lot of respect for those conservative posters who do make an attempt to expand on their positions and answer questions, even if I disagree with them.

edit: Also, PD transitioning back to trolling is a leading indicator that Obama's position is improving in the polls. Expect a 3-4 point bump in the 538 forecast tonight.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Black Mamba said:
Obama has tied or led all 17 of the last Ohio polls released regardless of company.

This is pretty much mathematically impossible if Romney is truly leading unless the pollsters are doing something wrong in their polling.

If they're using sound methods, this cannot happen. Even Obama only up 1 would make this result basically impossible. As I said before, the polling results are severely pointing to an Obama +3 (maybe higher) in Ohio race simply because there are no polls showing Romney leading.
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simply average every poll taken in october, and it's a 2.1% lead for obama for the month.
of the 29:
10% show a romney lead
17% show a tie
73% show an obama lead

romney hasn't led in a poll since the october 6-10 gravis poll. he hasn't led by more than one point since the september 2 gravis poll.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
AniHawk said:
simply average every poll taken in october, and it's a 2.14% lead for obama for the month.
of the 28:
11% show a romney lead
18% show a tie
71% show an obama lead

romney hasn't led in a poll since the october 6-10 gravis poll. he hasn't led by more than one point since the september 2 gravis poll.
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My argument would be it's higher than that, cuz even with a 2% lead we'd see Romney leading in a poll or two. It's more reasonable to not be ahead in any poll, but still quite unlikely. Which is why I think it's around 3 or more right now (especially since I think guys like Ras are wrong by 1-2 extra towards GOP in every poll). The average is a bit lower than reality IMO.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
Just a reminder that while I hold PD's avatar rights after Obama wins, I'll be taking suggestions.

Black Mamba said:
My argument would be it's higher than that, cuz even with a 2% lead we'd see Romney leading in a poll or two. It's more reasonable to not be ahead in any poll, but still quite unlikely. Which is why I think it's around 3 or more right now (especially since I think guys like Ras are wrong by 1-2 extra towards GOP in every poll). The average is a bit lower than reality IMO.
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What are the odds that the true mean is Romney > .50 given the polling data we have? Without doing the actual calculations, I'd estimate them to be quite small. Is the 95% confidence interval even +/- >2 with this many polls?
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Breaking news update: Just released polls have President Obama down one, Tim Kaine (D-VA) tied, and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) only two points ahead--and Republicans have 50-50 odds to win four Senate seats and take the majority.
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bitch please, i know better
 
A

adamsappel

Member
Stinkles said:
Anyone remember when McCain wasn't a giant piece of shit? Now he's turning into Herman McCain.
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No, I don't. McCain called his wife a "cunt" in front of reporters in 1992. I used to think he was principled, but you can be that and a giant piece of shit at the same time.
 
T

Trurl

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
man it's going to rule when i stop getting all these goddamn fundraising emails
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Hello, eBay Huckster. I am calling on behalf of "Organizing for America," President Obama's grassroots organization, and I'm wondering if the President can count on your support this election.
 
S

SpeedySwaf

Member
Black Mamba said:
Yes. Obama winning that vote 63-35. Losing non-early 52-46..
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And with the weekend voting coming up next week, it's only going to get harder for Mitt.

Wish I could early vote, but the nearest one is 20 minutes from where I live. Luckily, the actual polling station for me is just down the street.
 
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