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[Diablos]

Sounds like the storm surge predictions for Sandy have gotten worse from the OT

Dude, quit worrying so much. Seriously. A 12-15 ft storm surge for NYC/Long Island Sound, and parts of NJ seeing 18 ft is clearly an outlier. I'll wait and see what Nate has to say before I start to worry!

let's go back to fantasyland where romney's voters are somehow more likely to go to the polls in the aftermath of DEATHSTORM 2012

It's the uncertainty of it all that we do not need in an already tight race. Anything that depresses turnout in probably the most unanticipated, unpredictable way (save an act of terrorism) is the absolute last thing we need. There's no way to predict what will really go down because this really hasn't happened before. When you can't even get in touch with people to conduct a poll leading up to the election that's a serious issue.

Furthermore, even if it hurts rural areas more, expect the GOP and probably even some Dems to cry foul about voters not being able to exercise their right due to an emergency. Frankly, no matter who gets hurt more, there will be an uproar. This could lead to recounts for all we know. Really, you cannot take anything off the table in terms of possibility until we know the full effect of this storm, but what we already know sure as hell doesn't look promising.

Diablos have you ever been in a hurricane? Guess what happen earlier this year in Louisiana? We had the pleasure of experiencing Issac. You know how long power was out? 36-60 hours depending where you live. Some didn't even lose power. Now go wet the bed over something else.

The utility companies are telling their customers to expect 7-10 days worth of outages.

 

[eBay Huckster]

this could also lead to the entire mid-atlantic region becoming an irradiated wasteland if it hits nuclear power plants just right. i prefer to not worry about things that are less likely than PD going two pages without trolling (or which have more uncertainty than the trolling probability of a jackson post without verbosity, like pretty much every storm surge estimate ever).

 

[HylianTom]

Taft fishing.

edit: 100 years ago, actually! My god, has it been that long? Wow.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Was it eBay Huckster who surmised that after Obama won reelection this Polligaf would devolve into a frenzied panic over whether the electors would elect Obama or not? Because as we get closer I can totally see that panic firewall being baked in.

This is a legitimate concern. What if all of the electors accidentally put Osama instead of Obama? Then we'll have a zombie Muslim as President. THE GOP WAS RIGHT.

 

[ivysaur12]

You're absolutely right. Up to 10 million people without power leading up to election day is so fucking trivial! Let's go back to the fantasyland where it's November 7th and we are speculating who the GOP will run against Hillary in 2016.

Debates don't matter, storms don't matter, perhaps votes don't either!

Jesus, Diablos, stop it. Please. For your own sake.

 

[786110]

Debates don't matter, storms don't matter, perhaps votes don't either!

What If Elections Don't Matter?

 

[eBay Huckster]

oh fuck diablos is right

here's an actual video of what's about to happen to the entire coast

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Data comes out tomorrow (errr I guess later today):

THIS WEEK'S U.S. economic reports
time (et) 	report 	               period 	       Actual 	forecast 	previous
MONDAY, Oct. 29
8:30 am 	Personal income 	Sept. 	  	0.4% 	                 0.1%
8:30 am 	Consumer spending 	Sept. 	  	0.7% 	                 0.5%

 

[Diablos]

oh fuck diablos is right

here's an actual video of what's about to happen to the entire coast

Way to exaggerate my point.

 

[eBay Huckster]

your point is already the most grossly exaggerated take i've seen on this (regarding effects outside of NJ/NYC), and i've been f5ing jeff masters' blog all weekend

 

[Black Mamba]

New Politico/GWU Battleground poll finds Obama +1 49-48

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html

I believe last it was 49-47 for Romney.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

New Politico/GWU poll finds Obama +1 in Florida 49-48

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html

I believe last it was 49-47 for Romney.

A couple more polls showing Obama up in Florida and it means the dynamic has changed.

Awesome, what was the sample size?

And no other state polls?

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

The utility companies are telling their customers to expect 7-10 days worth of outages.

Ever heard of CYA. Of course they are going to say that. Give a worse case scenario instead of the actual time it will take. Are you telling me that a poor state like Louisiana, that also doesn't fund it's government on the scale of the Northeast, is going to do a better job than Pennsylvania? You act like they never had power outages or major weather events like snow storms. Now if it started snowing down here on November 6th, then Romney might lose the whole South.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

Any idea why Romney is talkign about taking out FEMA as a hurricane is about to batter the east coast of the US?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/28/mitt-romney-fema_n_2036198.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

 

[Ecotic]

I've experienced enough category 1 hurricanes (even direct hits) to know all you really do is get wet. They're weak at that level. Sandy just has a bigger radius. If it turns noreaster and brings snow, well, the northeast has experience with that too.

 

[Aaron Strife]

New Politico/GWU poll finds Obama +1 in Florida 49-48

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html

I believe last it was 49-47 for Romney.

A couple more polls showing Obama up in Florida and it means the dynamic has changed.

That's a battleground state poll, not Florida.

 

[Black Mamba]

Awesome, what was the sample size?

And no other state polls?

1000 likely voters. 3.1 MoE

I see no others from them.

That's a battleground state poll, not Florida.

Oh. That changes it. Where I found it said it was Florida.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

New Politico/GWU poll finds Obama +1 in Florida 49-48

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html

I believe last it was 49-47 for Romney.

A couple more polls showing Obama up in Florida and it means the dynamic has changed.

Clearly an outlier. Lets wait for ras.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Also, looks like during the primaries Romney called for FEMA to be shut down and let states handle shit on their own. Wonder if it will get any play due to Sandy?

 

[HylianTom]

New Politico/GWU poll finds Obama +1 in Florida 49-48

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html

I believe last it was 49-47 for Romney.

A couple more polls showing Obama up in Florida and it means the dynamic has changed.

I think you're right. It seems like we've seen a rather small but noticeable rise in state polls over the past week since the debate.

 

[AniHawk]

Any idea why Romney is talkign about taking out FEMA as a hurricane is about to batter the east coast of the US?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/28/mitt-romney-fema_n_2036198.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

the private sector can do it better because it would let the free market decide who is the better emergency service

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Landline phones don't use power from your homes regular power system so they usually work when the power goes out.

This is actually not true in a lot of cases anymore. If it's a cordless and if your phone is connected through your Internet modem you won't be able to use it.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I've experienced enough category 1 hurricanes (even direct hits) to know all you really do is get wet. They're weak at that level. Sandy just has a bigger radius. If it turns noreaster and brings snow, well, the northeast has experience with that too.

Category 1 Hurricanes do not bring 15 ft. waves?

The most destructive part of the Hurricane is the incoming storm surge. If the models are right, its going to be pretty big for the NE parts. Here:

http://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/...andy_would_anyone_mind_discussing_its/c6svz5x

 

[eBay Huckster]

okay, just checked out hurricane hunter data and it looks like sandy's intensified slightly - pressure up to 948mb and winds slightly up to 85mph.

(hope NYC can sandbag the hell out of the subway system in time, because this doesn't really change the forecast for anywhere else)

 

[cartoon_soldier]

That's a battleground state poll, not Florida.

Bah useless

 

[Aaron Strife]

Here's a doozy for you all

Ipsos/Reuters shows a 3 point Obama lead among likely voters...

...and a 12 point lead among registered voters.

Fucking hell, if everyone just turned out we'd be speculating on whether Obama could win Georgia. Too bad Obama didn't give everyone their damn pony.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Here's a doozy for you all

Ipsos/Reuters shows a 3 point Obama lead among likely voters...

...and a 12 point lead among registered voters.

Fucking hell, if everyone just turned out we'd be speculating on whether Obama could win Georgia. Too bad Obama didn't give everyone their damn pony.

Good shit, balance out Ras and Gallup!

 

[Black Mamba]

Rand showing a tightening (honestly, it's about time). 51-45 so Romney gained about 1 point overall.

 

[Officerrob]

New Politico/GWU Battleground poll finds Obama +1 49-48

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html

I believe last it was 49-47 for Romney.

Isn't this the poll we have heard for the last couple days that was rumored to have Romney up several points?

 

[Rocket Scientist]

If Diablos is so sure about this shit he should put his money where his mouth his. Buy 100 dollars of shares of Romney or take a ban bet. Show us you actually mean the shit we're reading.

 

[Diablos]

If Diablos is so sure about this shit he should put his money where his mouth his. Buy 100 dollars of shares of Romney or take a ban bet. Show us you actually mean the shit we're reading.

I'm not sure about anything but I'm not taking the warnings lightly either. This entire scenario is quite unprecedented.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Isn't this the poll we have heard for the last couple days that was rumored to have Romney up several points?

Brit Hume (jackass) was boasting about it showing a 5 point lead for Romney. Oops!

 

[Kevitivity]

Here's a doozy for you all

Ipsos/Reuters shows a 3 point Obama lead among likely voters...

...and a 12 point lead among registered voters.

Fucking hell, if everyone just turned out we'd be speculating on whether Obama could win Georgia. Too bad Obama didn't give everyone their damn pony.

This poll seems to over-sample Dem leaning voters 37 to 44, not to mention a MoE of over 3. Doozy?

 

[Black Mamba]

Brit Hume (jackass) was boasting about it showing a 5 point lead for Romney. Oops!

Speaking of which I caught a little of it. They're still whining about libya over there. It seems like it's most of what they talk about. It's a massive cover-up.

Brit Hume was trying to stay above the fray and like "well, I don't know why they're doing it but I sure am disappointed" spiel. lol.

Should Obama get reelected, I wonder if there will be an "impeach over libya" narrative to come.

This poll seems to over-sample Dem leaning voters 37 to 44, not to mention a MoE of over 3. Doozy?

Look show crawled out of his hole for another drive-by.

 

[eBay Huckster]

This poll seems to over-sample Dem leaning voters 37 to 44, not to mention a MoE of over 3. Doozy?

this thread seems to over-sample your posts.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Isn't the whole point that no one really knows what's going to happen with this hurricane? You can't just write it off but you can't assume it's going to turn every state it hits red either.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

this thread seems to over-sample your posts.

:lol

 

[StopMakingSense]

This poll seems to over-sample Dem leaning voters 37 to 44, not to mention a MoE of over 3. Doozy?

It's partly because they break down party affiliation by strong / moderate / lean. Less people affiliate as independent that way.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Isn't the whole point that no one really knows what's going to happen with this hurricane? You can't just write it off but you can't assume it's going to turn every state it hits red either.

but can i assume i'll be able to walk outside and kayak down my street?

(actually my street's enough of a substandard shithole already that i can do that without hurricane-level flooding)

 

[syllogism]

e: oh this is the national poll, nevermind+

 

[Diablos]

Isn't the whole point that no one really knows what's going to happen with this hurricane? You can't just write it off but you can't assume it's going to turn every state it hits red either.

Right, but what could happen afterwards might still be a clusterfuck, i.e. county officials crying foul because they had no power and people were out of town etc. We just don't know. I think turnout in NY/NJ will likely be so high for Dems that it won't matter, but we are underestimating Eastern PA and the power outages that could occur there and in the Northeast overall. And when PA is only +5 or so for Obama this time (opposed to 08 where it was, what, +11), depending on how bad Sandy is it could affect turnout in a way that makes the state way too close for comfort, even if Dems retain a slight edge.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

I'm not sure about anything but I'm not taking the warnings lightly either. This entire scenario is quite unprecedented.

Then you've made a case and given everyone a good laugh. It's time to stop.

 

[AniHawk]

50.9-45.05 in rand

5.85 lead, down from 6.91 yesterday. a big shift comes from rising intention to vote from the romney people. however, the intention to vote from the obama people is the highest it's ever been. the biggest shift is the transition of obama voters over to romney voters.

Rand showing a tightening (honestly, it's about time). 51-45 so Romney gained about 1 point overall.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyhMYVU31ng#t=1m10s

 

[Black Mamba]

That's not a Battleground state poll. We're all wrong!

It's a national poll called battleground.


National poll shows Obama +1. So now RAND, Politico, Reuters, and IBD are showing Obama up. Gallup, Ras, ABC, and PPP showing Romney up.

 

[Angry Grimace]

50.9-45.05 in rand

5.85 lead, down from 6.91 yesterday. a big shift comes from rising intention to vote from the romney people. however, the intention to vote from the obama people is the highest it's ever been. the biggest shift is the transition of obama voters over to romney voters.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyhMYVU31ng#t=1m10s

I'm pretty sure 1 point is just statistical noise.

Right, but what could happen afterwards might still be a clusterfuck, i.e. county officials crying foul because they had no power and people were out of town etc. We just don't know. I think turnout in NY/NJ will likely be so high for Dems that it won't matter, but we are underestimating Eastern PA and the power outages that could occur there and in the Northeast overall. And when PA is only +5 or so for Obama this time (opposed to 08 where it was, what, +11), depending on how bad Sandy is it could affect turnout in a way that makes the state way too close for comfort, even if Dems retain a slight edge.

I don't think they make Political Valium, but you need some.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

That's not a Battleground state poll. We're all wrong!

It's a national poll called battleground.


National poll shows Obama +1. So now RAND, Politico, Reuters, and IBD are showing Obama up. Gallup, Ras, ABC, and PPP showing Romney up.

Holy fuck people, figure out what that poll is supposed to be already.

Spoiler

or wait for official release

 

[jiggle]

can't wait for another week and be poll free

 

[Angry Grimace]

National polls aren't even that relevant and there's no obvious/identifiable statistical trend since you literally have polls moving in different directions every fucking day. There's nothing to really worry about until you see a clear trend towards Romney gaining in Ohio.

Honestly, I was talking to my super conservative family yesterday and they were fucking pissed off and were going off about how there's no way Romney can reasonably win without "miracles."

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Holy fuck people, figure out what that poll is supposed to be already.

Spoiler

or wait for official release

We already know what the poll is supposed to be.

Spoiler

bad news for obama

 

[Black Mamba]

Let's compare Pre-debate (third one) to Post-debate national trackers.

Reuters - tied. Now O+3
Politico - R+2, Now O+1
RAND - O+2, Now O+6
PPP - R+2, Now R+1
Gallup: R+5, Now R+4 (was R+7 2 days prior FWIW)
Ras: R+3, Now R+3
IBD: O+2,Now O+1.3

In addition:

Politco: R+2, Now O+1
UPI: Tied, Now Tied

So all but 2 of them moved towards Obama. Average is 1.6 bounce for Obama.

Remember Silver said a 1 point bounce would be huge this late. Obama has outdone that by my count.


Also, WaPo poll showing Kaine up 7 in Va.