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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

Anticitizen One

Banned
Hawkian said:
Basically all the democratic party votes come from the highly populated (and largely awesome) areas of the Tri-County area in south Florida (my homelands) and college campuses throughout the state (Alachua county especially with UF). Every other part of the state is a brutal wasteland not to be visited, let alone granted sway over the future of the country (I take this opportunity to apologize to Tampa, Sarasota, St. Augustine and a few cities on the gulf coast).
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Sarasota and most of the gulf coast are big time republican brah
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I'm sure there's a conservative forum that just panics and has "Bad News for Romney" as its slogan and just uses Dick Morris as its substitute for Nate Silver. Basically, mirror universe GAF.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I've never seen him reference him, but then again I only watch a few nbc clips online since I don't have a TV. Silver pretty much makes what Todd does extinct, so I'd imagine Todd wouldn't willingly put any focus on the 538 model.

The right's Silver obsession has been a marvel to watch. I think some genuinely don't trust him, but I kind of see something else happening here. I think we're seeing a level of willful ignorance in terms of how many conservatives view this election. I think we're seeing a further setting of the stage for massive voter fraud charges and potential incitement. The narrative right now is that Romney still has momentum, he's being optimistic because he's going to win, Obama is desperate, he has no chance, etc. State polls don't reflect that, at all though. Still, the right's general state argument is that national polls will dictate what happens - ie the challenger will get all the undecided voters and win nearly every swing state. The Kosmo argument, basically.

Silver is the only notable guy arguing against the "Romney momentum" theory, and suggesting Obama will win handily; sure Wang/PEC is too, but he's not nearly as visible as Silver has become. By smearing him as an Obama partisan, republicans can dismiss his shit - even if he's right on November 6th - and claim "no polls" showed Obama would win, therefore something fishy happened.
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But PD, the state polls don't reflect Romney's line of attack on Jeep yet. Who knows!?
 
E

el retorno

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I've never seen him reference him, but then again I only watch a few nbc clips online since I don't have a TV. Silver pretty much makes what Todd does extinct, so I'd imagine Todd wouldn't willingly put any focus on the 538 model.

The right's Silver obsession has been a marvel to watch. I think some genuinely don't trust him, but I kind of see something else happening here. I think we're seeing a level of willful ignorance in terms of how many conservatives view this election. I think we're seeing a further setting of the stage for massive voter fraud charges and potential incitement. The narrative right now is that Romney still has momentum, he's being optimistic because he's going to win, Obama is desperate, he has no chance, etc. State polls don't reflect that, at all though. Still, the right's general state argument is that national polls will dictate what happens - ie the challenger will get all the undecided voters and win nearly every swing state. The Kosmo argument, basically.

Silver is the only notable guy arguing against the "Romney momentum" theory, and suggesting Obama will win handily; sure Wang/PEC is too, but he's not nearly as visible as Silver has become. By smearing him as an Obama partisan, republicans can dismiss his shit - even if he's right on November 6th - and claim "no polls" showed Obama would win, therefore something fishy happened.
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I think him moving to NYT has made him a bigger target. I think if would have stayed on his own site political junkies would still care but it'd be easier to ignore him like PEC. But attacking Nate is just an extension of their NYT hate.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
speculawyer said:
In short: Yes.


In Florida, they voted for Rick Scott, the CEO who's company committed THE LARGEST CRIMINAL MEDICARE FRAUD IN HISTORY. Florida . . . home of retired medicare users.

They are more worried about that young colored guy that Fox news lambasts non-stop.

Along with the old people voting against their own interest, throw in Alabama annex (as a poster described), military people, and Cubans. And thus you end up with a tough state for Dems to win.
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I've said before that Scott would never have won in a presidential election year. He was in the midst of the Tea Party wave in 2010 and still barely, barely beat Alex Sink - who to be frank wasn't exactly a great candidate herself.

Still, the only people in Florida who give enough of a shit to vote in off-election years are the elderly. So you can indeed thank them for electing Scott.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
By smearing him as an Obama partisan, republicans can dismiss his shit - even if he's right on November 6th - and claim "no polls" showed Obama would win, therefore something fishy happened.
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This is true but if his numbers are as accurate as 2008, they'll look crazy

I think him moving to NYT has made him a bigger target. I think if would have stayed on his own site political junkies would still care but it'd be easier to ignore him like PEC. But attacking Nate is just an extension of their NYT hate.
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Also true
 
E

el retorno

Member
Anecdote time: I actually stopped voter fraud recently. My friend was going to fill out his friends absentee ballot because he's really apathetic about voting and he's in a swing state. I told him thats illegal but you can pester and yell at him about who to vote for but he actually has to fill it out himself freely.

I've now done more to stop voter fraud than every single voter ID law ever.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Chuck Todd ‏@chucktodd

Clinton says that POTUS told him, of all the things Romney has said, the Jeep to China line hurt the most. Because Obama's 1st car a Jeep
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Chuck Todd ‏@chucktodd

Clinton then goes on to quote Chrysler statement saying Jeep is not MOVING to China.
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Billy C workin' it
 
L

Learn2read

Member
ClovingWestbrook said:
Do you have a link to the anecdotes? I an actually interested in reading them.
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Some politico ebook

That scorn stoked Obama's competitive fire, got his head in the game, which came as a relief to some Obama aides who had seen his interest flag when he didn't feel motivated to crush the opposition.

Obama, a person close to him told me, didn't even feel this strongly about conservative, combative House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, the Hill Republican he disliked the most. At least Cantor stood for something, he'd say.

When he talked about Romney, aides picked up a level of anger he never had for Clinton or McCain, even after Sarah Palin was picked as his running mate. 'There was a baseline of respect for John McCain. The president always thought he was an honorable man and a war hero,' said a longtime Obama adviser. 'That doesn't hold true for Romney. He was no god------ war hero.'"
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T

thefro

Member
http://thequeue.gallup.com/2012/10/gallup-polling-during-hurricane-sandy.html

Gallup has suspended polling for its daily tracking as of Monday night and will reassess on a day-to-day basis. The ultimate effect on the overall picture of polling between now and this weekend, including election polling, will depend on what happens as a result of the storm, about which we will have a better understanding of on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.
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Gallup TAPS OUT!
 
E

el retorno

Member
thefro said:
http://thequeue.gallup.com/2012/10/gallup-polling-during-hurricane-sandy.html



Gallup TAPS OUT!
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I'd love for them to come back with Obama in the lead going into the last weekend. The conspiracy charges would be glorious.

RustyNails said:
Really need to stop fucking the chicken but why couldn't Obama show his hate towards Romney in the 1st debate...durrr....
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I really think something else was on his mind. He just seemed out of it.

ClovingWestbrook said:
Eh, I honestly dont think Bams hates Romney. IMO Obama had a bigger issue with McCain than Romney.
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I don't think he hates him on a personal level but just everything he represents and has become. I mean I'm sure obama means it when he says he respects Romney as a father, but in the political area I really do think its bordering on hate.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Learn2read said:
Some politico ebook
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If you go by Game Changer as well, apparently nobody in politics has any respect for Romney. Which should be no surprise since most politicians spend years developing, and in some sense becoming, characters for the national stage. Romney's violated the cardinal rule -- you have to at least look to the casual eye like you stand for something.

Gruco said:
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...latinos-and-new-poll-shows-them-fired-up?lite

More on the Hispanic voter sampling x-factor.
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Latino Decisions has been super consistent at showing Hispanics raring to vote and supporting Obama by like 50 points. They're so far different from pretty much every other pollster that I'm hesitant to give them full credence, but it's clear that their methodology is way more targeted towards their specific polling audience, so I think there's a good case to make that they're right. I hope so, anyway.
 
E

el retorno

Member
RustyNails said:
So it looks like Obama's thugs finally forced Gallup to close their office.
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In time they get to everyone, he's taking aim next at the the department of labor and their job numbers, I fear for election day. How much voter intimidation will poor romney voters have to face?
 
S

Slime

Banned
Romney going through with his 70k person rally in Atlantic City despite the venue being a foot deep in water. NJ gon' flip. Bad news for Obama.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
All this weather coverage with reporters on the ground is idiotic but at least it keeps Romney momentum garbage off the tv lol
 
M

markatisu

Member
Gruco said:
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...latinos-and-new-poll-shows-them-fired-up?lite

More on the Hispanic voter sampling x-factor.
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Yup people who ignored the Hispanic vote are going to get a shock come election day, Obama has been hammering Univision and Telemundo with ads in spanish.

Romney's ads have been the equivalent of "we speak spanish too, but we will still deport you"

PBS did an entire special on Hispanics and 2012, a lot of them were angry the GOP was comparing them to cattle and asking them to self deport
 
P

Paches

Member
Cloudy said:
All this weather coverage with reporters on the ground is idiotic but at least it keeps Romney momentum garbage off the tv lol
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I never understood why reporters need to be practically drowning while reporting. Showmanship and more "action", I suppose.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
electricpirate said:
I'm sure that was the idea, but I'm not sure it was a good one. A big chunk of liberal disenchasment was caused by the Administration not getting that part of the bill.

Either way, it would have been a miniscule difference in 2010.
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That is simply not true. 10% unemployment means you lose seats.
 
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