• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

Status
Not open for further replies.
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Slime said:
Romney going through with his 70k person rally in Atlantic City despite the venue being a foot deep in water. NJ gon' flip. Bad news for Obama.
Click to expand...

He hasn't cancelled it yet? Please tell me it isn't tomorrow.

EDIT: Actually I hope it is tomorrow and he doesn't cancel it and he shows up and no one is there and it's all flooded and it's filled with cameras covering it.
 
T

thefro

Member
Obama's team definitely made the right call in cancelling his campaign events today with the Hurricane speeding up.

News will be all Sandy DOOM today.
 
M

Marvie_3

Banned
B-Dubs said:
He hasn't cancelled it yet? Please tell me it isn't tomorrow.

EDIT: Actually I hope it is tomorrow and he doesn't cancel it and he shows up and no one is there and it's all flooded and it's filled with cameras covering it.
Click to expand...

Would make for some great images to use after the election.
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
I think James Poniewozik has it right about much of the media's disdain (if not outright contempt) directed at Nate Silver and the other polling-based prediction models: the notion of being able to predict an election based purely on statistics, rather than on "savvy," goes against the fundamentals of horse-race political punditry, and thus they see him on some level as a threat to their livelihoods.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
slide_260033_1698177_free.jpg


Atlantis City :eek:
 
A

Arde5643

Member
Father_Brain said:
I think James Poniewozik has it right about much of the media's disdain (if not outright contempt) directed at Nate Silver and the other polling-based prediction models: the notion of being able to predict an election based purely on statistics, rather than on "savvy," goes against the fundamentals of horse-race political punditry, and thus they see him on some level as a threat to their livelihoods..
Click to expand...

Moneyball : Presidential Election.


Who's starring as Nate Silver?
 
E

el retorno

Member
Father_Brain said:
I think James Poniewozik has it right about much of the media's disdain (if not outright contempt) directed at Nate Silver and the other polling-based prediction models: the notion of being able to predict an election based purely on statistics, rather than on "savvy," goes against the fundamentals of horse-race political punditry, and thus they see him on some level as a threat to their livelihoods..
Click to expand...

Has political science research shown that voters on a whole are pretty predictable for a while? It seems likes its the news that always gets it wrong basing it on "instinct" and what not.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Poor Ali... standing around and getting pelted by that shit for hours.

Clevinger said:
I liked this:

@DFLamont
@Caissie @scott_tobias @poniewozik Can you really trust someone like Silver, whose "celebrity" is based only on mastery of his subject?

lol
Click to expand...
I just read the stupidest piece of crap on Politico about this. So bad.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Father_Brain said:
I think James Poniewozik has it right about much of the media's disdain (if not outright contempt) directed at Nate Silver and the other polling-based prediction models: the notion of being able to predict an election based purely on statistics, rather than on "savvy," goes against the fundamentals of horse-race political punditry, and thus they see him on some level as a threat to their livelihoods..
Click to expand...

I liked this:

@DFLamont
@Caissie @scott_tobias @poniewozik Can you really trust someone like Silver, whose "celebrity" is based only on mastery of his subject?

lol
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Father_Brain said:
I think James Poniewozik has it right about much of the media's disdain (if not outright contempt) directed at Nate Silver and the other polling-based prediction models: the notion of being able to predict an election based purely on statistics, rather than on "savvy," goes against the fundamentals of horse-race political punditry, and thus they see him on some level as a threat to their livelihoods..
Click to expand...

I think it's that if they embrace Silver's model, they can never go on about a horse race again. Even if every poll is tied there will still be things that create a clear front runner. There's no more Blitzer-esque "This is tied even though one candidate is up by 12 points," it would be math and graphs. Stuff that would be very hard to fake and could be easily called out if it was faked.
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
Father_Brain said:
I think James Poniewozik has it right about much of the media's disdain (if not outright contempt) directed at Nate Silver and the other polling-based prediction models: the notion of being able to predict an election based purely on statistics, rather than on "savvy," goes against the fundamentals of horse-race political punditry, and thus they see him on some level as a threat to their livelihoods..
Click to expand...

Arde5643 said:
Moneyball : Presidential Election.


Who's starring as Nate Silver?
Click to expand...

Exactly, we have been seeing the same disdain and push-back in sports circles (baseball being the biggest) from older scouts and pundits towards the new advanced sabermetric systems that have been growing. A perfect example will be the AL MVP this season because one would think Miguel Cabrera would have it wrapped up based solely on winning the Triple Crown (first time in 47 years) but Mike Trout will get some votes as well based on how he performed in newer stats taking hold (such as WAR) and showing him also having an all-time season.
 
3

3rdman

Member
Hawkian said:
Basically all the democratic party votes come from the highly populated (and largely awesome) areas of the Tri-County area in south Florida (my homelands) and college campuses throughout the state (Alachua county especially with UF). Every other part of the state is a brutal wasteland not to be visited, let alone granted sway over the future of the country (I take this opportunity to apologize to Tampa, Sarasota, St. Augustine and a few cities on the gulf coast).
Click to expand...

Actually Orange county did go blue...But you are right. Living in Downtown Orlando was an interesting experience once you drove 20 minutes in any direction...Deland....Ugh...
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/10/nate-silver-romney-clearly-could-still-win-147618.html

On MSNBC's "Morning Joe" today, Joe Scarborough took a more direct shot, effectively calling Silver an ideologue and "a joke."

"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance — they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way. And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes."
Click to expand...

Wow. Does this guy understand how statistics work?
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Father_Brain said:
I think James Poniewozik has it right about much of the media's disdain (if not outright contempt) directed at Nate Silver and the other polling-based prediction models: the notion of being able to predict an election based purely on statistics, rather than on "savvy," goes against the fundamentals of horse-race political punditry, and thus they see him on some level as a threat to their livelihoods..
Click to expand...

Which is interesting, because you saw a similar hostility to sabremetrics-style management in baseball from the old guard of the scouting community.

(The comparison is obvious, given Silver's background.)

EDIT: Beaten.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
It's crazy. Why would you believe polls but not what is essentially an average of said polls with state polls given a larger weight (just like electoral votes mean more than popular votes)?
 
E

el retorno

Member
I follow some spanish journalist and this popped up

@_anapastor_
Toma! @mr2157: FEMA, la agencia federal de emergencias, dice que las elecciones del próximo martes pueden verse afectadas por #sandy.”
Click to expand...

"FEMA says next tuesday's elections could be affected by sandy"

I don't know what the source is but I thought Diablos could use the reassurance everything is gonna be ok.

Clevinger said:
seriously, what is this shit

https://twitter.com/howardfineman/status/262368910937038849
Click to expand...

Bullshit
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Nate Silver's model is pure mathematics. It should come as no surprise that Republicans and their ilk dislike it so much. Look at that scarborough statement. We don need no stinkin edumacated scientistry to tell us who's gonna win this election! My gut tells me it's 50/50 and I swear to baby jesus anyone who says otherwise is a sinner from pits of hell.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
RustyNails said:
Nate Silver's model is pure mathematics. It should come as no surprise that Republicans and their ilk dislike it so much. Look at that scarborough statement. We don need no stinkin edumacated scientistry to tell us who's gonna win this election! My gut tells me it's 50/50 and I swear to baby jesus anyone who says otherwise is a sinner from pits of hell.
Click to expand...

Obama's not just running for Obamacare, Keynesian economics, gay marriage and abortion. Now he's running for SCIENCE.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Brinbe said:
I thought Fineman was p. okay, but he's been saying some profoundly dumb things these past few weeks. I mean WTF
Click to expand...

He's whole career is based on media analysis he's got to play up the conventional narrative.

But someone really needs to recut a moneyball type trailer for nate silver. "against the odds one man stands against the conventional political wisdom"
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Don't you guys watch baseball? Nate (well, more like Nate-and-co) caused the same upheaval in that sport.


el retorno de los sapos said:
He's whole career is based on media analysis he's got to play up the conventional narrative.

But someone really needs to recut a moneyball type trailer for nate silver. "against the odds one man stands against the conventional political wisdom"
Click to expand...

That would be apropos considering Nate got his start in baseball statistics. My boss' brother is the Director of Decision Sciences for the Houston Astros (a new hire, btw) and he fights constantly with scouts. Mostly old people who "trust their gut" and "use their eyes."
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
The problem is that people are shoehorning Silver into a silly win/lose scenario.

If Romney wins, that doesn't mean that Silver's system "lost." It means that the result fell into the 25-ish% probability that Romney would win the election.
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
I get the feeling that Nate Silver is going to enjoy the salty tears more than all of PoliGAF combined (provided he is right).

And fuck that Fineman tweet. Heard him on Tony Kornheiser's radio show a few times spouting nonsense horse-race bullshit all season.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
BertramCooper said:
The problem is that people are shoehorning Silver into a silly win/lose scenario.

If Romney wins, that doesn't mean that Silver's system "lost." It means that the result fell into the 25-ish% probability that Romney would win the election.
Click to expand...

We will still have 50 states of data to compare to Silver's predictions. I think come election day either way = Silver wins.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
BertramCooper said:
The problem is that people are shoehorning Silver into a silly win/lose scenario.

If Romney wins, that doesn't mean that Silver's system "lost." It means that the result fell into the 25-ish% probability that Romney would win the election.
Click to expand...

Nate can't be wrong. Well, he can, but not in the way that people are suggesting he'll be "wrong" (and by people, I mean retards). It's really frustrating.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom