I'm going through his Poblano posts on Kos and it's funny to see how far he's come since then.
Almost five years later and it still applies today!
National polls don't matter!
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
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I'm going through his Poblano posts on Kos and it's funny to see how far he's come since then.
Almost five years later and it still applies today!
National polls don't matter!
It was sub-100 MPH winds...the only real problem is going to be flooding which is like horrible.
Oh but yes. It should be every voter's basic requirement that the candidate that earns their vote makes his/her decisions based on reality.. not fairy tales or pie-in-the-sky corporate-based wishful thinking.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Man thought he was a hack before, but this is amazing LOL
cartoon_soldier
Member
Nate going against media narrative, that's why some of these media figures are piling on him.
Fuckers, his model doesn't say Obama will get 75% popular vote (which is what Joe Scarbitch apparently thinks it says).
The GOP hates Nate because his model shows a healthy Obama victory (other models show similar results, but Nate's the most high profile of them all, thus, he gets most of their ire), and him being an admitted Obama supporter certainly doesn't help. The political punditry hates him because he's a threat to 'gut political instincts', which is all the pundits live by.
Will be interesting to see their reactions once Nate nails it again next Tuesday.
Will be interesting to see their reactions once Nate nails it again next Tuesday.
Fucking Romney signs everywhere. I just don't understand how they don't get that they are the 47% Romney doesnt give a shit about. Its so infuriating.
The Librarian
Banned
Oh I see how it is. So when Obama is up 51-47 in VA, it's a "ridiculous outlier," but when one poll in MA showis Brown over Warren, it could be the beginning of a trend? Tell me, dear, what has happened in MA in the past month to reverse Brown's chances?
Come on, Clevinget.
Yup that is exactly it, his stats remove the ability for them to create a narrative to drive Ratings
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
It's telling how much faith the punditocracy places in gut instinct and conventional beltway wisdom (for example, David Brooks, the largest purveyor of conventional wisdom) over facts and empirical knowledge. After all, they did not become popular by being right. They become popular by being clever. So it's no surprise that they would feel contempt for something that would challenge their claim to wisdom. That Politico article makes clear that the writer doesn't even understand what 538 does. That's why I like Ezra Klein. He may not be the best writer, but in some sense that's a virtue. His analysis is instead based upon painstaking fact-checking and wonkery. It makes for a much more compelling read than the pundit ideal of saying whatever you want as long as it sounds wise and superficially well-reasoned.
Scott Brown running so many ads in MA.
Yes, for reasonable people. Unfortunately, the narrative won't be that. There's an article on Politico today hedging "Nates Celebrity" on an Obama win, ignoring 24.4% for Romney not being 0%. Projection is no guarantee of anything, but people won't care.
speculawyer
Member
He is a conservative Republican. You know how they are with science (Evolution, climate change, how lady parts work, etc.).
el retorno
Member
Because people are going to go to people like him for election coverage so they don't have to hear the BS coming out of CNN, FOX and MSNBC and just get facts
How can you game nate's system? Doesn't it weight on how you did in the last elections? He's gonna see if your changing things up.
What's really amazing is how much dumber the pundits/political blowhards are than the baseball folks pre-sabermetrics.
I guess the difference is the baseball guys eventually get fired if they don't perform. If the political guys get it wrong there's so few elections that they can blame their failures on something else and everyone forgets it in 2 years. And of course, driving ratings or your candidate's narrative is more important than getting it right.
I guess the difference is the baseball guys eventually get fired if they don't perform. If the political guys get it wrong there's so few elections that they can blame their failures on something else and everyone forgets it in 2 years. And of course, driving ratings or your candidate's narrative is more important than getting it right.
Pretty much, you can't spin Silver's shit so it does no good for the Wolf Blitzers of the world. You can't argue your candidate is going to when when the numbers say the opposite, no one can "work the laces" anymore if Silver's modeling ideas take off. Election coverage will have to start from scratch, can't focus on the outlier anymore.
Red Blaster
Member
Media people hate Nate because he makes a lot of their jobs obsolete
Chuck Todd is a clown now
Mmm.. My favorite form of mockery when it comes to shaming friends and family: the anti-science label. Especially if they're sci-if or pop-science fans or geeks of any type. The mental gymnastics that are involved in those cases are remarkable.
This. So much this. Just one more week.
The Lamonster
Member
Man...how far he's fallen since 2008. He used to be one of the only people explaining Obama's clear lead even in the primaries. But now, he is indeed a circus folk.
and balding now too
Learn2read
Member
If Romney wins there might be a lot of "was his model wrong all along?" talk. That's hardly "turning" on him.
wsoxfan1214
Banned
One vote away for Johnson in Illinois.
The Lamonster
Member
You can bet that Silver's gotta be nervous as hell approaching The Day. So many people have hung their hopes on his words, his analysis. He's kept a lot of people sane.
When Ohio is called for Bams, I'll be sending some positive thoughts his way. Without him, I'd even even go so far as to theorize that the Democratic web base (and, by extension, all the folks we reach out and pass-on Nate's education to in our own lives) would have been much more demoralized going into these final days. In the end, he may have moved the needle a bit.. dun dun dunnnnnnn!
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
For Silver's model to be wrong all of the state polls would have to be more inaccurate than anyone could ever have predicted - there would literally need to be some confounding factor like Hispanics who don't respond to polls voting uniformly for Romney for whatever reason.
I guess you're right. Thing is, it's the state polls that would be wrong if Romney wins lol.
el retorno
Member
Alot of what Nate does is also help get rid of the multiple narratives dynamic we have now. The bubble of the right wing (mittmentum) and the false horse race of CNN and the mainstream stations. If modeling takes off it reduces "electoral analysis" to reading charts without all the subjectivity and BS that the networks love to throw in.
I don't think he's that nervous nor should we be. This isn't just him randomly picking states. This is basing his predictions and models off hundreds of state polls.
He's now printed in the times weekly. He has a non-internet audience.
I don't think he's that nervous nor should we be. This isn't just him randomly picking states. This is basing his predictions and models off hundreds of state polls.
Red Blaster
Member
I for one am looking forward to Jesse Eisenberg playing Nate Silver in Fincher's movie adaptation of the 2012 election
Yep.
Pretty sure the Republicans weren't bitching about Nate when he was predicting big gains for them in 2010...
Because republicans were resigned to Obama winning in 2008.
He is desperately trying to stay relevant during the election season for high ratings. After election season is over, all news outlets in general see far less viewership. I used to think he was decent, but now he is just a joke like the rest of them.
StopMakingSense
Member
heh
Black Mamba
Member
Nate getting this election right won't mean much, yet.
Look how long it took baseball to finally adapt to new stats. Same thing is going on in basketball, as well. It takes time for the change-over. Too many older people stuck in their ways.
Obama winning as Silver predicts (as well as princeton, etc) simply adds to the wall crumbling. Might take another 2 major election cycles but it will just help the movement.
Look how long it took baseball to finally adapt to new stats. Same thing is going on in basketball, as well. It takes time for the change-over. Too many older people stuck in their ways.
Obama winning as Silver predicts (as well as princeton, etc) simply adds to the wall crumbling. Might take another 2 major election cycles but it will just help the movement.
He's pushing against the media narrative instead of adding to it.
And a lot of baseball writers STILL take wins in to account in determining the Cy Young winner, although the winners as of the past few years have had fewer and fewer win totals (Felix and Grinke).
Nate in 2010...
http://www.pacificnorthwestcoastbias.com/grading-nate-silvers-election-predictions/
Guy knows his stuff...
http://www.pacificnorthwestcoastbias.com/grading-nate-silvers-election-predictions/
Guy knows his stuff...
And what's amazing is just how locked in this all is now. Obama has been massively ahead in early voting in Iowa, Ohio, Nevada... so it's Romney who has to make up lost ground on election day. And I don't know how the heck he does it considering the average of all Ohio polls since the START OF THIS ELECTION (that is, way back even at January 2012) have all been positive Obama... never once, not even one day, has Obama not been in the lead. That should tell you all you need to know about Romney's fight.
Black Mamba
Member
Heh. (basketball stats guy)
Also basketball stats guy.
EVERYWHERE. And it's about 8:1 Romney to Obama signs in my neighborhood.
I think my favorite billboard is the one showing gas prices, with Obama bowing to the Saudi guy :lol
el retorno
Member
Yup. I think if he nails it again this year you're gonna see him start to be ignored in an attempt to make him go away. The only thing is the internet is only going to become more important and his influence will only grow, slow and steady.
Everything seems to be moving to model based predictions, Sports, Economics, Politics. With computers as powerful as they are its just easy to through numbers into it and see it spit out a nice easy prediction.
Also, Nate is the most conservative on Obama's chances of all of the models I follow
http://election.princeton.edu/
http://votamatic.org/
http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html
http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/election12/index.html
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
And that doesn't include the offshore sportsbooks
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner
http://election.princeton.edu/
http://votamatic.org/
http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html
http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/election12/index.html
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
And that doesn't include the offshore sportsbooks
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner
Well, Joe is either right or he is wrong. 50/50 chance!
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