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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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C

Cloudy

Banned
Glenn Thrush ‏@GlennThrush

Looks like GOP finally realized Nate Silver was Public Enemy #1 on Mitt-mentum riff...much more effective at coordinating attacks than Ds
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Oh and

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp

Mark Mellman (dem pollster) has Obama leading Romney in Ohio by 5 percentage points (49% Obama, 44% Romney)
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B

Black Mamba

Member
The reason the fiscal cliff is such a threat to 2013′s economy isn’t that it’s too little deficit reduction — it’s that it’s too much all at once, totaling about $720 billion, or 5.1 percent of GDP in a single year, which could throw the economy into recession.

Republicans agree on that. Democrats agree on that. And in agreeing on that, both sides appear to be embracing an argument that’s been rather contentious in recent years: that fiscal stimulus boosts short-term economic growth and budget cuts hurt it.


“The fact that going over the fiscal cliff would hurt the economy in the short run is, to me, basically saying stimulus would help the economy in the short run,” says Brookings economist William Gale. “The whole debate over whether the stimulus is a good idea is answered by those who say going over the fiscal cliff is a bad idea.”
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OMG this is so obvious why didn't I think about this. You can destroy every GOP argument against the stimulus with this.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...bout-the-fiscal-cliff-then-youre-a-keynesian/
 
P

Paches

Member
ClovingWestbrook said:
Where in WA are you? I'm in Spokane (Romney country) and I can't tell you how many 'Vote No on 74' signs I have seen. Also the lovely sign downtown that reads 'THE RECOVERY BEGINS NOVEMBER 6th, 2012! VOTE REPUBLICAN!' annoys me everytime I see it.
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Northwest (Burlington). Small neighboring town of Mt. Vernon. I have high hopes for the marijuana and gay marriage props.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Senator Scott Brown, citing the danger posed by Hurricane Sandy, has pulled out of his fourth and final debate with Elizabeth Warren, which was scheduled to take place Tuesday evening in Boston and be broadcast live on television.

“It is simply not appropriate to go forward with a political debate when a disaster strikes,” Brown’s spokesman, Colin Reed, said in a statement released this afternoon. “The focus for all of us before, during, and after the storm needs to be on emergency response and disaster relief, not campaigns and politics.”

Reed’s statement did not indicate whether the senator wanted to reschedule after the storm subsides.

The Warren campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The debate’s organizers, a consortium of Boston media outlets that includes the Globe, had been planning to go ahead with the hour-long debate.
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Sounds like a not desperate move for someone who is desperate. dumbass.
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
ClovingWestbrook said:
Where in WA are you? I'm in Spokane (Romney country) and I can't tell you how many 'Vote No on 74' signs I have seen. Also the lovely sign downtown that reads 'THE RECOVERY BEGINS NOVEMBER 6th, 2012! VOTE REPUBLICAN!' annoys me everytime I see it.
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I'm out in Marysville, and I figure it's pretty much the very fringe edge of purple before you're in full-blown red state. I figure we probably have a good amount of Boeing employees in town to tilt the balance, but the second you're past exit 199 on I5, the right wing campaign material rises precipitously.

Oddly enough, while there's always been a fair amount of anti-Obama stuff in town, I never saw any pro-Romney signs until after the first debate.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Chuck Todd ‏@chucktodd

As a kid in Miami, always fascinated w/storm tracking; Publix had maps on grocery bags. Never got to "S" name, EVER. Now, 3 years running
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I live in the mid-west so I never knew this. But there's no climate change!
 
P

Paches

Member
Mike M said:
I'm out in Marysville, and I figure it's pretty much the very fringe edge of purple before you're in full-blown red state. I figure we probably have a good amount of Boeing employees in town to tilt the balance, but the second you're past exit 199 on I5, the right wing campaign material rises precipitously.

Oddly enough, while there's always been a fair amount of anti-Obama stuff in town, I never saw any pro-Romney signs until after the first debate.
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Sounds about right. I am about 20 minutes north of you and there are a lot of Romney/Ryan and Koster, McKenna signs on the highways.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Cloudy said:
Klein goes on to say this



I'd be mad if someone was making my job irrelevant too
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Yup, called it earlier. Chuck Todd and others are basically payed to ask the same question over and over, then muddy the actual answer to fit whatever narrative has already been set; if the story is "Romney Momentum" than every poll will be framed to fit that story. In short, punditry has never been about facts or numbers, and naturally someone like Silver has to be tore down in order to maintain the status quo.

I still think Romney can win obviously, but I'm far from cocky/confident with Wang and Silver against me.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
PhoenixDark said:
Yup, called it earlier. Chuck Todd and others are basically payed to ask the same question over and over, then muddy the actual answer to fit whatever narrative has already been set; if the story is "Romney Momentum" than every poll will be framed to fit that story. In short, punditry has never been about facts or numbers, and naturally someone like Silver has to be tore down in order to maintain the status quo.

I still think Romney can win obviously, but I'm far from cocky/confident with Wang and Silver against me.
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We're a week away, Obama would really have to shit the bed at this point. Get that Whitey tape out along with the Obama/white cheerleader sex tape.
 
T

Touchdown

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
New Ohio poll

Obama 49-44

From Mark Mellman, the prophet of Nevada's Senate race in 2010.
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oh yeah
tumblr_m6esmxfC4M1rntezlo1_400.gif
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Cloudy said:
Klein goes on to say this



I'd be mad if someone was making my job irrelevant too
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Silver is excellent at the short term and good at the medium term. For insights to long term questions like "who will win when Condi runs against Hillary" you will still need the expert analysis of people like Dick Morris.


(Seriously, anyone who was worth listening to before Nate Silver will be worth listening to after him. Only lame pundits that function as little more than fortune tellers should be worried.)
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Yup, called it earlier. Chuck Todd and others are basically payed to ask the same question over and over, then muddy the actual answer to fit whatever narrative has already been set; if the story is "Romney Momentum" than every poll will be framed to fit that story. In short, punditry has never been about facts or numbers, and naturally someone like Silver has to be tore down in order to maintain the status quo.

I still think Romney can win obviously, but I'm far from cocky/confident with Wang and Silver against me.
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Romney has this man. You and I both know this.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Obama up 1 in Reuters/IPSOS daily tracker. Was up 3 yesterday. UPI up 1 for Obama

Also, the only polls that have Romney winning are Gallup (5), Ras (2), and PPP (1).

Everyone else is tied or Obama up (Rand, Reuters, IBD, UPI)

ARG and Pew have them tied in their latest polls.

But the media will talk about Gallup's big lead for Romney.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RustyNails said:
wait, what?
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I just made that shit up, sounds like some real shit they'd say though right? Romney would need nothing short of that to win at this point though.

Amir0x said:
Donald Trump has been hinting that a cheerleader had some "fun" with Obama in a tape that will release on Thursday. He doesn't imply that it's a sex tape, but perhaps groping or something
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Bravo, that's some good tag team. I shouldn't have given it away so soon.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Black Mamba said:
Obama up 1 in Reuters/IPSOS daily tracker. Was up 3 yesterday. UPI up 1 for Obama

Also, the only polls that have Romney winning are Gallup (5), Ras (2), and PPP (1).

Everyone else is tied or Obama up (Rand, Reuters, IBD, UPI)

ARG and Pew have them tied in their latest polls.

But the media will talk about Gallup's big lead for Romney.
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At this point it's clear Gallup's a big outlier. And it seems to me it's not just a statistical and coincidental outlier, but that something in the methodology is pushing it away from everything else.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Cyan said:
Yeah, it sounded more like the latter. Of course he's overhyping it as changing the face of the election. Guess we'll see.
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Why hasn't obama released his college records yet

If you tell me one goddamn thing like he was too busy killing Osama bin Laden or stopping Hurricane Sandy, I'll fire you
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
First he steals Obama's political positions, then he steals his artwork!
 
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