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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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E

ezrarh

Member
Paches-EJ- said:
And a lot of baseball writers STILL take wins in to account in determining the Cy Young winner, although the winners as of the past few years have had fewer and fewer win totals (Felix and Grinke).
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It's okay, the longer people aren't willing to accept his numbers - the more money I get to make on Intrade.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
el retorno de los sapos said:
Yup. I think if he nails it again this year you're gonna see him start to be ignored in an attempt to make him go away. The only thing is the internet is only going to become more important and his influence will only grow, slow and steady.

Everything seems to be moving to model based predictions, Sports, Economics, Politics. With computers as powerful as they are its just easy to through numbers into it and see it spit out a nice easy prediction.
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Kinda reminds me of Asimov's Foundation series, honestly. Predicting the future?
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Atlantic City boardwalk, right now:

iv7D7BpNxRHBy.jpg


Tide level already past 8' at Battery Park (forecast to be 7.6').

Landfall looks to be in about an hour, somewhere within 30 miles of Ocean City, NJ.

Feed the Diablos.

Feeeeed it.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Darkgran said:
Bingo....

I have been saying this forever.
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And then you have to consider that even if Obama lost Ohio, he has a fairly good chance in Virginia, and if he gets that, fuck Ohio, 'cause he'll win Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin too and middle finger the FUCK out of that shit
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yeah nate just throws out all data from all the past elections

he deweights rasmussen because he <3 obama
 
D

Darkgran

Member
Amir0x said:
And then you have to consider that even if Obama lost Ohio, he has a fairly good chance in Virginia, and if he gets that, fuck Ohio, 'cause he'll win Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin too and middle finger the FUCK out of that shit
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Seriously the path to 270 for Romney is almost non existent...
 
P

Paches

Member
"You know—the ship's going over the waterfall, it's almost there. And we look what's happening in Greece, and we look what's happening around the world, we look what's happening internationally. This is a frightening world, and we need a grown-up, and we need someone that understands the economy. So I'm glad…Mitt is grown up to you all." -Anne Romney
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Because Obama is a "boy" we shouldn't elect him. That is some straight up slave talk right there.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Cyan said:
Not at all. If he showed it as approximately 50/50, then they'd love him.
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A challenger ousting an incumbent still makes for a good story.

Especially in Obama's case because then they'd get to peddle garbage like "Washington destroyed Obama's hopeful optimism," "Was America ready for a black president?" etc. You know that second one will be blaring everywhere if Romney wins.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
A challenger ousting an incumbent still makes for a good story.

Especially in Obama's case because then they'd get to peddle garbage like "Washington destroyed Obama's hopeful optimism," "Was America ready for a black president?" etc. You know that second one will be blaring everywhere if Romney wins.
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In fairness, if Romney wins, a big part of why will indeed be that America wasn't ready for a black president.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
el retorno de los sapos said:
Has political science research shown that voters on a whole are pretty predictable for a while? It seems likes its the news that always gets it wrong basing it on "instinct" and what not.
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I'm not sure what entails pretty predictable for a while. But voter behavior is quite predictable. That's been one of the more robust revelations in political science.

Also, the cause of the media's rebuke of Nate Silver is transparent. His systematic approach outclasses the typically overwrought analysis of most pundits. They rely on intuition and conventionality rather than objective data.
 
E

el retorno

Member
RustyNails said:
President gonna president. I still don't understand how small the situation room is, and how outdated it looks. They're still using projectors? C'mon son. That room should be Tom Cruise's office from Minority Report. They're still stuck in the 1960s it seems.
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Security maybe? I'd imagine it's also a lot more high tech than photos can show.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
HylianTom said:
Mmm.. My favorite form of mockery when it comes to shaming friends and family: the anti-science label. Especially if they're sci-if or pop-science fans or geeks of any type. The mental gymnastics that are involved in those cases are remarkable.
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I would hope that it is a pretty effective technique too. I mean really, are you gonna argue with science? I'd really like to see conservatives refuse to accept immunizations because they are based on . . . evolution! *shudder*. (Every new season's flu shot is a based on a guess as to which evolved strains of flu will be the most problematic.)


I keep hearing about how white males mostly line up with Romney. But when I'm with my science Ph.D white male friends there are almost no good words spoken for Romney. But again, I live in geeky science/engineering world.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
Mgoblue201 said:
That's why I like Ezra Klein. He may not be the best writer, but in some sense that's a virtue. His analysis is instead based upon painstaking fact-checking and wonkery. It makes for a much more compelling read than the pundit ideal of saying whatever you want as long as it sounds wise and superficially well-reasoned.
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Nah, Klein's claim to fame is his ability to distill 20 page white papers by the actual policy wonks into readable 1 page articles or blog posts. He's basically the Cliffnotes of policy, but I've never seen him write great, in-depth, original analysis that wasn't sourced from somewhere else. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Cliffnotes are great.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Puddles said:
Nah, Klein's claim to fame is his ability to distill 20 page white papers by the actual policy wonks into readable 1 page articles or blog posts. He's basically the Cliffnotes of policy, but I've never seen him write great, in-depth, original analysis that wasn't sourced from somewhere else. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
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Yea Ezra never really is original but his talent comes from making policy and the academic world much more understandable. Which is a very valuable service.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Klein goes on to say this

Ezra Klein &#8207;@ezraklein

Which is to say, pundits have been making money off the question "who will win?" for a long time now. Silver threatens those jobs.
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I'd be mad if someone was making my job irrelevant too
 
M

markatisu

Member
Oh lord I just decided to see what was going on in crazyville (aka Infowars, Alex Jones, etc) and found out that Sandy is a government conspiracy to save Obama's Presidency lol
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
Paches-EJ- said:
Just read about these. I live in Washington state in the education field. Prop 1 and 2 sound horrible.
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Where in WA are you? I'm in Spokane (Romney country) and I can't tell you how many 'Vote No on 74' signs I have seen. Also the lovely sign downtown that reads 'THE RECOVERY BEGINS NOVEMBER 6th, 2012! VOTE REPUBLICAN!' annoys me everytime I see it.
 
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