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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

Averon

Member
I woke to read about the latest GOP senatorial candidate putting his foot in his mouth regarding rape. What is it with GOP senatorial candidates and rape?
 
P

polyh3dron

Banned
Averon said:
I woke to read about the latest GOP senatorial candidate putting his foot in his mouth regarding rape. What is it with GOP senatorial candidates and rape?
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It not a war on women, if there's anyone who's hurting women it's Obummer because he's stopping them from getting jerbs.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Averon said:
I woke to read about the latest GOP senatorial candidate putting his foot in his mouth regarding rape. What is it with GOP senatorial candidates and rape?
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This controversy is probably better for the GOP than the string of homosexual affairs.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
New poll showing Obama ahead of Romney in Ohio...this isn't good...Obama needs Ohio to win...I don't know what we are going to do....this doesn't bode well...he needs to be ahead...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=86d85b21-8b9a-4661-99ab-3b88b2335cf2

sylvester_1722.gif

sylvester_1722.gif
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Dax01 said:
New poll showing Obama ahead of Romney in Ohio...this isn't good...Obama needs Ohio to win...I don't know what we are going to do....this doesn't bode well...he needs to be ahead...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=86d85b21-8b9a-4661-99ab-3b88b2335cf2
Click to expand...

When was this released? Yesterday? I guess noone has mentioned it yet?

An election today for United States Senator from Ohio is too-close-to-call. Democrat Sherrod Brown today is at 43%, Republican Josh Mandel is at 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, Brown is flat, Mandel is up 4 points. Mandel had led by 5, now leads by 1. The week-on-week movement comes from...<snip>
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Math seems to be wrong; I guess it's a typo. You'd figure that these agencies would be better at catching that stuff though.

Worrying things:
Q3) 40% Worried/Concerned about outlook; 38% optimistic and hopeful
Q6) Better at balancing fed budget (2nd most important issue for both genders): 46/44 for Romney
Q9) What is of greater concern in Ohio: voter fraud? Or voter suppression?
44/38 for Fraud over Suppression
Q10) 48/36 oppose 2010 healthcare reform
Q11) 49% support Tea Party

Of course there are positive things to look at as well, but I think Obama should see if they can draw some of those voters away from the Romney camp.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Crap poll
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Lol.
It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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Of the 465 voters surveyed, about two-thirds were contacted before the debate and supported Obama by a wide margin. But most of the other one-third polled after Oct. 3 favored Romney. The margin of error is larger when splitting apart the poll group, Richman said, but the shift is significant.
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Only 465 voters surveyed over the course of an entire month. Margin of Error is meaningless in this kind of poll.
The only really important thing from the article (even though we already knew it) is:
If the presidential race is close, Richman said, Goode, a former GOP congressman in Virginia, and Johnson, a fiscal conservative, could draw votes away from Romney.
Click to expand...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
From Charlie Cook's posts, both campaign's internals even show VA as tied or Romney leading by 1-2 points.

He actually said the polls in VA are worse for Obama than FL which is showing a tied race per internals.

PPP has tracking poll back to tied 48-48, -2R from yesterday.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
When was this released? Yesterday? I guess noone has mentioned it yet?
Click to expand...
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43538889&postcount=525

Math seems to be wrong; I guess it's a typo. You'd figure that these agencies would be better at catching that stuff though.

Worrying things:
Q3) 40% Worried/Concerned about outlook; 38% optimistic and hopeful
Q6) Better at balancing fed budget (2nd most important issue for both genders): 46/44 for Romney
Q9) What is of greater concern in Ohio: voter fraud? Or voter suppression?
44/38 for Fraud over Suppression
Q10) 48/36 oppose 2010 healthcare reform
Q11) 49% support Tea Party

Of course there are positive things to look at as well, but I think Obama should see if they can draw some of those voters away from the Romney camp.
Click to expand...
They also have Romney winning 22% of the black vote. That won't be happening. SUSA seems to fuck this up every time.
cartoon_soldier said:
From Charlie Cook's posts, both campaign's internals even show VA as tied or Romney leading by 1-2 points.

He actually said the polls in VA are worse for Obama than FL which is showing a tied race per internals.

PPP has tracking poll back to tied 48-48, -2R from yesterday.
Click to expand...

So far two of two tracking polls show a 2-point swing. If most of them move that way it might be an early sign of re-settling in Obama's direction, or that the debate moved the needle.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
gkryhewy said:
Joe is a republican partisan, and just can't help himself so close to an election. I used to watch every morning, and I'll come back on the 7th.
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After that first debate, Joe tasted a little bit of victory and now he doesn't want to let it go.


cartoon_soldier said:
In good Senate news, Murphy pulling ahead of McMahon

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.c...ulls-ahead-in-connecticut-senate-race?ref=fpb
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Oh sweet molasses, yes! McMahon winning would be so fucking dumb.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
From Charlie Cook's posts, both campaign's internals even show VA as tied or Romney leading by 1-2 points.

He actually said the polls in VA are worse for Obama than FL which is showing a tied race per internals.

PPP has tracking poll back to tied 48-48, -2R from yesterday.
Click to expand...
Hmmm. I'm curious which is true. I wouldn't bank on either state personally. Florida seems heavy Romney favorite and if VA is worse, then that's bad. If FL really IS tied though (which seems unlikely with all the polls from down there) Obama could strike and make things interesting. The only problem is- Obama's campaign seems to be very efficient. I don't think battling for Florida would fit the efficiency theme. If they have X money, should they advertise in a state that they're likely to lose? If they have a real chance of winning it, it makes it worth it. If not... Obama would just be giving up ground in Ohio. We need more Ohio polls.
GhaleonEB said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43538889&postcount=525


They also have Romney winning 22% of the black vote. That won't be happening. SUSA seems to fuck this up every time.
Click to expand...
Ah, I thought I saw it earlier. They only account for Asians + Hispanics making up 5% of the voting population as well. I don't know the demographics of Ohio, but that seems unlikely.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
GhaleonEB said:
So far two of two tracking polls show a 2-point swing. If most of them move that way it might be an early sign of re-settling in Obama's direction, or that the debate moved the needle.
Click to expand...

That would be good. Considering Obama has been outperforming the national polls, it would be a normalization of the race. Of course if the state polls also show a 1-2 point shift towards Obama...well would be even better.

Also, Where The Fuck Is Out Ann Selzer Poll for Iowa...it's about time!
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
Hmmm. I'm curious which is true. I wouldn't bank on either state personally. Florida seems heavy Romney favorite and if VA is worse, then that's bad. If FL really IS tied though (which seems unlikely with all the polls from down there) Obama could strike and make things interesting. The only problem is- Obama's campaign seems to be very efficient. I don't think battling for Florida would fit the efficiency theme. If they have X money, should they advertise in a state that they're likely to lose? If they have a real chance of winning it, it makes it worth it. If not... Obama would just be giving up ground in Ohio. We need more Ohio polls.
Click to expand...

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...ign-romneys-path-to-270-remains-steep/263999/

Most private polls show Romney with low single-digit leads in North Carolina and Virginia. For the sake of argument, let's give Romney both states, adding 28 additional electoral votes to the 191 that Romney already led in, for a total of 219 -- 51 short of a victory.

At the same time, Obama has a lead in Nevada that is wider than any advantage that Romney has in North Carolina and Virginia, so let's add the Silver State's six electoral votes to the Obama 237, bringing his total to 243, 27 short of 270.

That leaves six remaining states -- Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), and Wisconsin (10) -- with a total of 76; Obama needs 27 of the 76 while Romney needs 51. But the challenge for Romney isn't just that he needs to win two-thirds of the "true" Toss-Up state electoral votes. It's that in five of the six (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin) Obama is still leading in most polling, particularly the last two, while in Florida, it seems awfully close to dead even.
Click to expand...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Obama's 3 rallies today + Leno interview:

He starts the day with a rally Davenport, Iowa. In the afternoon, he will speak at a rally in Denver, Colorado. He then travels to Los Angeles, Calif. to tape an interview with the Tonight Show's Jay Leno. And he concludes the day with a campaign event Las Vegas.
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Politico Article on Obama's closing strategy - Hit Mitt http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82796.html?hp=t1

While the article is all right, media missed the part about Obama having a second term plan months back, I do see how having this new booklet out before would have been better.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
WBUR Poll: Warren Leads By 6 In Mass. Senate Race

Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren leads Sen. Scott Brown 50 percent to 44 percent in a new WBUR poll of likely Massachusetts voters, including respondents who are leaning toward one candidate or the other. The result is a reversal from WBUR's poll earlier this month that found Brown up by 3.

The PollTracker Average shows Warren crossing the 50 percent threshold and opening up a wide lead.
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The graph is so very pretty. Good riddance, Scott Brown.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Dax01 said:
No president has ever won office without winning Tuscarawas County. However you pronounce that.
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Pretty similar to how it looks, actually.

TUS - KUH - RAW - WUS

Y2Kev said:
Didn't people say this about Missouri in years past? Happy they lost that shit.
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I'm sure there are other similar counties in other states. There might even be other ones in Ohio with similar track records.

I just thought it was somewhat interesting that my home county was a bellwether county for a bellwether state.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Y2Kev said:
Didn't people say this about Missouri in years past? Happy they lost that shit.
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Remember the "South Carolina choosing the GOP candidate" thing being their claim to fame?
 
C

Clevinger

Member
IGSaint said:
What are you talking about?
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There's a rumor Trump found divorce papers between Obama and his wife in 2000 that they didn't go through with.

Cedric Daniels is a character from The Wire, and I can't really remember his wife subplot but I think they had an unhappy marriage and stayed together because of politics.
 
C

codhand

Member
Oblivion said:
That moron McMahon was actually LEADING at one point? What the fuck?
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McMahon got that WWE money son!

john-cena-fu-rey-mysterio-and-john-cena-29059003-352-240.gif

Linda McMahon Pours Another $15 Million Into Race
Former WWE Executive Has Spent $77 Million On Campaigns

Republican Linda McMahon pumped $14.8 million into her U.S. Senate campaign from July through September, bringing her total investment to $27.2 million, according to campaign finance reports filed this week.

The multimillionaire former chief executive of the wrestling and entertainment company WWE has now spent $77 million of her own money on two separate campaigns for the Senate in 2010 and 2012.

The Connecticut Senate campaign has become one of the most expensive in the country. The race is nearly deadlocked, with recent polls giving Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy a slight edge.

McMahon has spent far more than any candidate in Connecticut history in her quest to join the U.S. Senate. She is far ahead of Democrat Ned Lamont, who spent more than $16 million of his own money in his unsuccessful campaign against U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman in 2006.
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http://articles.courant.com/2012-10...o-campaign-finance-reports-congressman-murphy
 
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