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[Hunter S.]

Well, if he doesn't play Marvel vs. Capcom 2 he's not really account worthy anyway, damn it.

Wait, this is a gaming forum. Who knew?!!?

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Do you honestly believe that every single idea the campaign has comes from an internal source?

I don't want to speak for Dax, but that wasn't really his claim.

 

[ido]

Wait, this is a gaming forum. Who knew?!!?

It starts out that way anyway. Then OT wins.

Then this wins gooder.

 

[demon]

To anyone who thinks anyone in the obama campaign is taking cues from neogaf.com of all places, look here

 

[AniHawk]

let's get this discussion back on track.

barack obama's news is pretty bad. how will this affect the election?

 

[Realyst]

I'm really not. I just have "general rule of thumbs" I follow when posting in PoliGAF that make me look smrt:

1. Assume whatever PD says about the election is wrong and take the opposite position.
2. Think whatever TalkingPointsMemo tells me to think.
3. Pretend to know every weird word Jackson50 uses in one of his posts.
4. Go with the flow. If the majority of PoliGAF members are participating in some sort of activity – whether it be calming down a particular poster, among others – do that.
5. Make weird fanfic about the members of the thread to make it seem like I fit in and know what's going on.

Someone, please add this to the OP of every PoliGaf thread. Call it "Hey, You, wanna be a productive member of PoliGaf? Follow these rules in order to keep your sanity/posts-per-day average!"

 

[SmokeMaxX]

To anyone who thinks anyone in the obama campaign is taking cues from neogaf.com of all places, look here

Well, if he doesn't play Marvel vs. Capcom 2 he's not really account worthy anyway, damn it.

I find it hilarious that Shoryuken.com is dwarfed by both Bulbagarden.net and serebii.net

 

[HylianTom]

It starts out that way anyway. Then OT wins.

Then this wins gooder.

This is pretty much the only GAF tab I keep open all day. I'm too busy at work to follow more than one thing at a time.

---

Also, I'd like to present: the Election Night 2004 Timeline.
http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php
It was a sad night for many of us, but it may be useful, as it shows what types of times may be expected in a close race.

Some points of interest (all in Eastern Time):
New Hampshire was called the next day.
Virginia was called at 8:41PM
Florida was called at 12:27AM
Ohio was called at 1:00AM
Wisconsin was called the next day.
Minnesota was called at 4:38AM.
Iowa was called the next day.
Pennsylvania was called at 10:49PM
New Mexico was called the next day.

Looks like a much, much later night than the one we saw in 2008 (http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php). I think we'll be having a late night here again. Obama's leads in the swing states may be definite, but they're also more reminiscent of 2004 than 2008, so it'll take some time to tabulate the numbers.

 

[AniHawk]

This is pretty much the only GAF tab I keep open all day. I'm too busy at work to follow more than one thing at a time.

---

Also, I'd like to present: the Election Night 2004 Timeline.
It was a sad night for many of us, but it may be useful, as it shows what types of times may be expected in a close race.

Some points of interest (all in Eastern Time):
New Hampshire was called the next day.
Virginia was called at 8:41PM
Florida was called at 12:27AM
Ohio was called at 1:00AM
Wisconsin was called the next day.
Minnesota was called at 4:38AM.
Iowa was called the next day.
Pennsylvania was called at 10:49PM
New Mexico was called the next day.

Looks like a much, much later night than the one we saw in 2008 (http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php). I think we'll be having a late night here again. Obama's leads in the swing states may be definite, but they're also more reminiscent of 2004 than 2008, so it'll take some time to tabulate the numbers.

i should just nap after work. by the time i wake up, we'll probably have complete results.

...aw fuck, i know i'm going to be a nervous wreck from 7/10-8/11 or whenever it's called.

 

[The Lamonster]

So when did they declare the winner?

 

[AniHawk]

So when did they declare the winner?

ohio was it, i believe. so 1:00 am est

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Anyone know if CSPAN will have online coverage of the election? I don't watch it enough to know.

 

[HylianTom]

ohio was it, i believe. so 1:00 am est

Yup.

And another close election: 2004:
http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight/pe2000elecnighttime.php

Times of interest (ET):
New Hampshire was called at 10:05PM.
Pennsylvania was called at 8:49PM.
Michigan was immediately called at 8:00PM.
Minnesota was called at 9:36PM.
Wisconsin was called at 6:22AM.
Iowa was called at 2:04AM.
New Mexico was called at 10:21PM (initially).

So, looking at these two close elections, we could be looking at a very late night. Get a nap in during the day.. If you can calm-down enough to fall asleep.

 

[killer rin]

So US political-Gaf, I thought I would lighten the mood for you guys and share a funny Joss Wheaton video I just found about Romney with you.

Video

Spoiler

Please dont kill me if this is old and everyone has seen it already

 

[Black Mamba]

To anyone who thinks anyone in the obama campaign is taking cues from neogaf.com of all places, look here

NeoGaf bigger than NFL.com?

Mind = Blown



Still, I think it's mostly a case of like minded people coming to similar ideas/conclusions. That said, I wouldn't doubt some of the younger Obama campaign people (maybe even interns) peruse certain forums.

 

[Chichikov]

So US political-Gaf, I thought I would lighten the mood for you guys and share a funny Wil Wheaton video I just found about Romney with you.

Video

Spoiler

Please dont kill me if this is old and everyone has seen it already

It's been posted, there was a thread and the nerds are going to eat you alive for getting Will Wheaton and Joss Whedon confused.

 

[killer rin]

It's been posted, there was a thread and the nerds are going to eat you alive for getting Will Wheaton and Joss Whedon confused.

*self-double-facepalm*
Well... that's embarrassing.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

NeoGaf bigger than NFL.com?

Mind = Blown

Nfl.com also smaller than all the other sports sites. Maybe it's because everyone checks their stats on espn.com

 

[cartoon_soldier]

So...looks like the storm went through the worst case scenario predictions?

Let's hope east coast recovers quickly.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

So...looks like the storm went through the worst case scenario predictions?

Let's hope east coast recovers quickly.

How long is the storm supposed to last? Or is it already past and now we just wait for the water to go away/cities to recover?

 

[pigeon]

This story's only vaguely political, but it's pretty amazing:

The twitter user @comfortablysmug is one of a handful of pseudonymous Manhattan professionals who keep their widely-followed Twitter voices separate from their careers. His bio describes him as “My Interests: Finance, Gin, Politics, Books, Food, Fine Clothing, Meeting Strangers #Mitt2012” and links to a Romney campaign donation page of the sort that credits bundlers for the cash they’ve brought in.

His 6,000 followers include political and business reporters, and he’ll occasionally tweet of getting a drink with Business Insider’s Joe Wiesenthal; once with BuzzFeed editor Ben Smith.

And in the chaos around Hurricane Sandy, he veered into new territory: Trying to trick his media followers, and their followers and readers in turn, with fake news. He reported, falsely, on a total blackout in Manhattan, on a flood on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, and other things that didn’t happen.

Two of his tweets garnered more than 500 retweets. One drew a rebuke from ConEd’s official Twitter account.

Twitter’s self-correction mechanism — rebukes and rebuttals from knowledgeable sources — shut down each rumor, but not until at least one, the flood claim, had bled widely into the television media.

@comfortablysmug didn’t respond immediately to an inquiry, via Twitter direct message, as to his motives.

http://buzzfeedpolitics.tumblr.com/...ne-well-connected-pseudonymous-twitter-spread

I guess I don't see how this could be GOOD news for Romney.

 

[Angry Grimace]

lol @ the idea of the campaign stealing from GAF

 

[cartoon_soldier]

How long is the storm supposed to last? Or is it already past and now we just wait for the water to go away/cities to recover?

I have no idea.

But it looks like the storm surge which was supposed to be the worst part about Sandy met the worst predictions. MTA says no timeline for restoration of services, we see the shit that happened at NYU Hospital (emergency evacuation), you got stupid people who didn't evacuate when they were told to. Water declared unsafe to drink in areas. We probably won't know the full impact till morning I guess...

NYU evacuation:

 

[Black Mamba]

I have no idea.

But it looks like the storm surge which was supposed to be the worst part about Sandy met the worst predictions. MTA says no timeline for restoration of services, we see the shit that happened at NYU Hospital (emergency evacuation), you got stupid people who didn't evacuate when they were told to.

Are you saying the patients at NYU should have evacuated? Or were those two things unrelated?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Are you saying the patients at NYU should have evacuated? Or were those two things unrelated?

Unrelated sorry. Looks like people stayed back in Atlantic City, parts of NY under evacuation orders.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

I have no idea.

But it looks like the storm surge which was supposed to be the worst part about Sandy met the worst predictions. MTA says no timeline for restoration of services, we see the shit that happened at NYU Hospital (emergency evacuation), you got stupid people who didn't evacuate when they were told to. Water declared unsafe to drink in areas. We probably won't know the full impact till morning I guess...

Can't believe it took a hospital down (more or less). That's crazy difficult.
I don't think we should be surprised that the storm was bad though- haven't scientists been saying that it would be terrible? I'm kinda worried that the people who ignored those claims because they don't paint a rosy picture might also be ignoring bad polls because they don't fit within a certain narrative.

 

[Suikoguy]

Can't believe it took a hospital down (more or less). That's crazy difficult.
I don't think we should be surprised that the storm was bad though- haven't scientists been saying that it would be terrible? I'm kinda worried that the people who ignored those claims because they don't paint a rosy picture might also be ignoring bad polls because they don't fit within a certain narrative.

Storm Surge is difficult to predict.

From the reading I've done accuracy goes:

Storm Path > Storm Intensity > Surge

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Storm Surge is difficult to predict.

From the reading I've done accuracy goes:

Storm Path > Storm Intensity > Surge

Maybe I'd make millions predicting storm paths. RealClearHurricanes.com?

 

[Cloudy]

http://www.salon.com/2012/10/29/nate_silver_poll_prophet/

Silver’s backstory reads like a quirky screenplay. While working as a transfer pricing consultant who helped companies minimize tax exposure from overseas investments, he spent his evenings and weekends perfecting an ingenious computer system for evaluating baseball players’ stats, which outperformed the analyses of many experts. A company running an Internet site for Rotisserie League fans bought his system. Silver used the money to stake himself as a full-time online poker player, quickly earning $400,000. Shortly thereafter, congressional grandstanding before the 2006 midterm elections stifled the online poker business with regulations, leading the best professional players, deprived of the overconfident amateurs they had been feasting on, to go after players like Silver. He lost $130,000. So he turned to politics, attempting to predict the partisan composition of the next Congress to help him decide whether to cut his losses and move on from poker. Thus was born the sideline that became fivethirtyeight.com.

I didn't know this about Nate. I think I'll buy his book. Seems like it might be interesting

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Just got caught up on the thread.

That fucking clown is gonna politicize this disaster tomorrow @ a rally in Ohio and no one is gonna call him on it?

Fuck this shit.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Storm Surge is difficult to predict.

From the reading I've done accuracy goes:

Storm Path > Storm Intensity > Surge

True, in this case the worst predictions seem to have come true.

Can't believe it took a hospital down (more or less). That's crazy difficult.
I don't think we should be surprised that the storm was bad though- haven't scientists been saying that it would be terrible? I'm kinda worried that the people who ignored those claims because they don't paint a rosy picture might also be ignoring bad polls because they don't fit within a certain narrative.

A lot of people were joking about it on GAF too, we will see. Seems stupid to not evacuate.

Con Ed says it will be the largest storm related outage in their history.

We have 6 confirmed deaths.

 

[Diablos]

It's pretty obvious that there's no way some of the effects of this storm can be resolved in a week.

No fucking shit.

This storm is going to have an impact on the fucking election. PoliGAF can stop being so dismissive about it.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Just got caught up on the thread.

That fucking clown is gonna politicize this disaster tomorrow @ a rally in Ohio and no one is gonna call him on it?

Fuck this shit.

No, nobody will call him out on anything. We have seen how the media is, shouldn't be surprised. Hell, most reporters can't even call his jeep claim a bold faced lie that it is.

 

[el retorno]

No fucking shit.

This storm is going to have an impact on the election.

In what way? You think New York or New Jersey are going to flip?

 

[SmokeMaxX]

http://www.salon.com/2012/10/29/nate_silver_poll_prophet/

I didn't know this about Nate. I think I'll buy his book. Seems like it might be interesting

I heard from a reliable source that you might catch the gays if you read his book.

Just got caught up on the thread.

That fucking clown is gonna politicize this disaster tomorrow @ a rally in Ohio and no one is gonna call him on it?

Fuck this shit.

Romney has tried to politicize everything. I doubt this is surprising to anyone. Those who care will show it. Those who don't, won't.

 

[Opiate]

Just got caught up on the thread.

That fucking clown is gonna politicize this disaster tomorrow @ a rally in Ohio and no one is gonna call him on it?

Fuck this shit.

Speaking electorally, are we sure this is an advantage for Romney? My guess is that most people don't like the sound of privatized disaster relief. Further, my guess is that the general instinct in hard or disastrous times is to rally around the current leader. I could be wrong, of course.

I'm reading through your link and I'll formulate a response. But here's an immediate response:

Want more of us to come in here? Don't be sarcastic and condescending in your responses. I make you a promise that I'll do the same.

Really strongly agree. There have been several cases where people with objectively silly positions in arguments have come in to political threads and soundly trounced liberals in a debate because they maintain a polite, calm attitude. Snarky, snide retorts are both off putting and also self defeating.

 

[Paches]

No fucking shit.

This storm is going to have an impact on the fucking election. PoliGAF can stop being so dismissive about it.

A nonzero impact, sure, but nothing significant in my estimation.

 

[IrishNinja]

so what bad news for obama did i miss today? how are ohio and FL looking?

also, conservative buddy of mine put out his prediction:

FL, NC, CO and VA will go to Romney.
NV, MI, PA will go to Obama.
That leaves NH, OH, WI and IA up for grabs and the President at 243 EV's to Romney's 257.

I'm officially predicting, based on the polls, their models, samples and the electoral make up of the state, that Ohio will break for Romney with a +3 margin. That puts Romney at 275 without factoring in NH, IA and WI (of which I believe the Governor will take at least one, possibly two/all of those states, WI being the biggest toss up).*

*for shits and giggles, I do think Romney will win NH, but IA and WI are anyone's guess. Independents make up 30% of the vote in IA, and if that's the case, it goes Romney. Also, if the electorate of WI is the same that came out in 2010 and again earlier this year for the recall, Romney will likely win WI, too.

The only way I see Obama winning this election is with an upset in OH and outright winning in WI. But even if he did so, this will come at the cost of the popular vote.

we've got a bottle of a nice liquor going. no one wants to take me up on money right now, sadly, but whiskey is always acceptable currency.

 

[Cloudy]

The media is the reason people are so nonchalant about these natural disasters. They hype up the less dangerous so much that people think the scary ones will be the same

 

[cartoon_soldier]

In what way? You think New York or New Jersey are going to flip?

Doubt that. But, we wouldn't want Obama to lose the popular votes too. NY going from a 30 point margin to let's say 15 point is a big shift in PV. Looking at all the destruction in NY/NJ, people losing their cars, subway may not be functional in a week. I don't think we really know what the true effects will be.

 

[manipulate]

Nate Silver is single-handedly calming my anxieties about the election.

 

[The Librarian]

No fucking shit.

This storm is going to have an impact on the fucking election. PoliGAF can stop being so dismissive about it.

Honey, once again you have misunderstood people's criticisms of your posting style and content. Nobody in this thread was saying that the hurricane would not have an impact on the election. What everybody was saying – and taking issue with you – was that the effects would not be so dramatic as to tip the scales to a Romney victory.

Stop the victimizing.

 

[el retorno]

Doubt that. But, we wouldn't want Obama to lose the popular votes too. NY going from a 30 point margin to let's say 15 point is a big shift in PV.

eh. I don't think its gonna prevent people who were going to vote. Its still a week away. The roads will be clear and stores open in most places. If anything it'll suppress people who really weren't that committed or even Romney voters who now feel even their protest vote isn't worth it. It'll be a wash. You might see a drop in turnout but I don't think its gonna swing anything large. Rural voters are going to be even more affected by this.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Speaking electorally, are we sure this is an advantage for Romney? My guess is that most people don't like the sound of privatized disaster relief. Further, my guess is that the general instinct in hard or disastrous times is to rally around the current leader. I could be wrong, of course.

I don't think anyone thinks this will be a plus for Romney. Honestly, I don't even think Romney's team thinks this will be a plus for Romney. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a choice. He can't ignore a huge natural disaster and he doesn't have the time to wait until the cities recover.

Nate Silver is single-handedly calming my anxieties about the election.

Even Conservative-ish sites like RealClearPolitics show Obama in a comfortable lead.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Doubt that. But, we wouldn't want Obama to lose the popular votes too. NY going from a 30 point margin to let's say 15 point is a big shift in PV.

At this point, the way this jackass Romney has pissed me off with his shitty ass dishonest campaign, I would love nothing more than for Obama to beat him by 1 vote in Ohio.

Yes, one measley vote in Ohio, cast by Measley.

Re-counted 100 times, same result.

That would be the most delicious fucking ending ever for that guy.

 

[Diablos]

In what way? You think New York or New Jersey are going to flip?

I sincerely doubt it, however it could hurt Obama in Pennsylvania and/or Ohio. It could (and probably will, to some extent) depress turnout. The effects of this storm will be felt well into next week.

Then again, I dunno. NYC and NJ are in awful shape. It's too early to say, but when you are evacuating people from the hospital that's serious business.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I sincerely doubt it, however it could hurt Obama in Pennsylvania or Ohio.

Yeah because the storm will have a disproportional effect on Dem voters.

Those Republicans voters are gonna be just fine.

 

[el retorno]

I sincerely doubt it, however it could hurt Obama in Pennsylvania and/or Ohio. It could depress turnout. The effects of this storm will be felt well into next week.

Then again, I dunno. NYC and NJ are in awful shape.

You do understand that places like Philly and Pittsburgh will be fine come tuesday? If anything it'll hit rural AKA romney voters. And OH is it even really getting hit by anything serious?

 

[Diablos]

Honey, once again you have misunderstood people's criticisms of your posting style and content. Nobody in this thread was saying that the hurricane would not have an impact on the election. What everybody was saying – and taking issue with you – was that the effects would not be so dramatic as to tip the scales to a Romney victory.

Stop the victimizing.

a. Please don't call be honey.

b. Could've fooled me, because at first people had a kneejerk reaction to the Sandy projection map as though it were a bad poll.

You do understand that places like Philly and Pittsburgh will be fine come tuesday? If anything it'll hit rural AKA romney voters. And OH is it even really getting hit by anything serious?

OH has quite a few downed trees and power issues.

It's getting really ugly here in western PA, nothing like closer to the coast of course, but it just won't stop fucking raining and it's so cold. Ugh. I left work early. Wind is picking up too. I hate this crap.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Cost of sea barrier=only $14B ow.ly/1PfKio RT @NickBaumann Sept NYT: Subway flood would be $55B disaster ow.ly/1PfKin #Sandy

Oh no, let's build more tanks and aircraft instead. Fuck you democrats and republicans.