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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Loudninja

Member
Yeah I am tired of this game Diablos.

Its the same exact thing over and over with you.

Yeah because the storm will have a disproportional effect on Dem voters.

Those Republicans voters are gonna be just fine.
Whats the point of trying? he does not listen to the other 100 posts about the same thing.
 

AniHawk

Member
Speaking electorally, are we sure this is an advantage for Romney? My guess is that most people don't like the sound of privatized disaster relief. Further, my guess is that the general instinct in hard or disastrous times is to rally around the current leader. I could be wrong, of course.

considering what happened with libya, i believe this to be the case.

romney's really showing his hand with this move. he doesn't have iowa. he doesn't have ohio. he doesn't have wisconsin. so he'll parade around under the thin guise of helping the hurricane relief efforts, when the hardest-hit areas are the east coast.

if he wanted to really make himself look like a hero, he'd act like he wants to work with the current administration in aiding disaster relief, and work at least a day in new york city or even some hard-hit rural areas. this will either backfire or be glossed-over. but that's to be expected of a campaign that only ever had one really good day.

It has been well documented that inclement weather like rain and snow disproportionately affect Democratic turnout.

i can't tell what's real anymore.
 
eh. I don't think its gonna prevent people who were going to vote. Its still a week away. The roads will be clear and stores open in most places. If anything it'll suppress people who really weren't that committed or even Romney voters who now feel even their protest vote isn't worth it. It'll be a wash. You might see a drop in turnout but I don't think its gonna swing anything large. Rural voters are going to be even more affected by this.
I'm mainly worried about decreased turnout overall. Let's say Obama maintains a 15 point lead or whatever in a place like New York, but the overall number of voters is lower than it would've been had there been no storm, then that lead will not offset Romney's leads in places like Texas as much, helping him win the popular vote.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
So I come to the thread for the first time since mid-day, and the first post I read is Diablos worrying about how the storm is going to hurt Obama in Pennsylvania or Ohio. I'm reasonably sure I read that same post like, five or six times earlier today.

Chill, dude.

And stay safe, NY GAF.
 
If this had happened next Monday I'd be inclined to agree with Diablos. By next week many roads should be open in NY, plus Philly hasn't been slammed by the storm. My only concern is that this could lower Obama's popular vote margin

Ohio isn't effected, or Iowa, or Wisconsin, or Nevada. Or Virginia for the most part. That's where this election will be won or lost. Not fucking New York
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
At this point, the way this jackass Romney has pissed me off with his shitty ass dishonest campaign, I would love nothing more than for Obama to beat him by 1 vote in Ohio.

Yes, one measley vote in Ohio, cast by Measley.

Re-counted 100 times, same result.

That would be the most delicious fucking ending ever for that guy.
I would never want this to happen, because Husted would grab that one vote, on national TV, and rip it up in front of everyone.
It has been well documented that inclement weather like rain and snow disproportionately affect Democratic turnout.
In the NorthEast? I can see it being that way in the South because most of the Democrats here are minorities that are living at or near poverty levels. In the NE, aren't most of the Democrats living in urban areas and/or are college students that have their own modes of transportation?
 
One week and this is all over one way or another. No more polls, no more trolling, no more chicken little, its all done.

Who am I kidding it's never over, and it's gonna get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better. Time to buckle up, its gonna be a crazy week.
 

AniHawk

Member
If this had happened next Monday I'd be inclined to agree with Diablos. By next week many roads should be open in NY, plus Philly hasn't been slammed by the storm. My only concern is that this could lower Obama's popular vote margin

Ohio isn't effected, or Iowa, or Wisconsin, or Nevada. Or Virginia for the most part. That's where this election will be won or lost. Not fucking New York

but what if it was, then what.

oh... right...
 
I have no idea.

But it looks like the storm surge which was supposed to be the worst part about Sandy met the worst predictions. MTA says no timeline for restoration of services, we see the shit that happened at NYU Hospital (emergency evacuation), you got stupid people who didn't evacuate when they were told to. Water declared unsafe to drink in areas. We probably won't know the full impact till morning I guess...

NYU evacuation:
tumblr_mcow9oCjj31rk4etyo1_1280.jpg

Damn this shit is like cloverfield all over again
 

Diablos

Member
Its the same exact thing over and over with you.
It's a good thing Obama's been having a lot of good polling lately, or else it would be the same thing with you -- that is, cherry-picking the polls that make Obama look good and labeling the others as outliers.

We all want Barack to win, let's not lose sight of that. We either worry or get overly optimistic because we are invested in this race and want to see our guy win for the good of this nation. There's a week left until the election, we're all going to act the way we act, but if Obama wins we're all going to be in lockstep in our enthusiasm, and I look forward to that happening (fingers crossed).

If this had happened next Monday I'd be inclined to agree with Diablos. By next week many roads should be open in NY, plus Philly hasn't been slammed by the storm. My only concern is that this could lower Obama's popular vote margin

Ohio isn't effected, or Iowa, or Wisconsin, or Nevada. Or Virginia for the most part. That's where this election will be won or lost. Not fucking New York
Northern Virginia's in really bad shape right now, is it not? That is crucial for an Obama VA win, otherwise forget it.
 
I'm mainly worried about decreased turnout overall. Let's say Obama maintains a 15 point lead or whatever in a place like New York, but the overall number of voters is lower than it would've been had there been no storm, then that lead will not offset Romney's leads in places like Texas as much, helping him win the popular vote.

WHO GIVES A FUCK ABOUT THE PV?

JUST FUCKING WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.

HIS DETRACTORS WILL TALK SHIT REGARDLESS OF IF HE WINS THE PV OR NOT.

FUCK WHAT THEY THINK.
 

ISOM

Member
WHO GIVES A FUCK ABOUT THE PV?

JUST FUCKING WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.

HIS DETRACTORS WILL TALK SHIT REGARDLESS OF IF HE WINS THE PV OR NOT.

FUCK WHAT THEY THINK.

True at this point I just want the election over and romney gone from national conversation regarding any political position....and those salty tears, can't forget about those.
 
In the NorthEast? I can see it being that way in the South because most of the Democrats here are minorities that are living at or near poverty levels. In the NE, aren't most of the Democrats living in urban areas and/or are college students that have their own modes of transportation?
i can't tell what's real anymore.
Hm? Here's one (very detailed) analysis that I came across in my Twitter feed yesterday.

Also, for Diablos:
However, for low-information late deciding citizens who have little attachment to politics, there’s often no “should” candidate. And as a result, such voters, if they vote at all, may be swayed by whether most of what they’ve heard recently about one of the candidates is strikingly good or bad. And with Sandy, it’s fairly likely that if there is any information about the candidates dominating the news, it’s either going to be Barack Obama looking good while running the federal response to Sandy — or looking bad running the federal response to Sandy.

But the main effects, again, are likely to be small — because most voters have already decided (or even voted!), and those voters are likely to interpret whatever happens through that decision.
 
I read Romney is only visiting his own campaign offices to get charity stuff.

Any confirmation? If that's the case, this is no big deal. If he's holding a rally with other people, that's different.
 

HylianTom

Banned
My Sandy bulletpoints:
- no states flipping as a result, but turnout possibly depressed in certain states, slightly increasing Romney's chance of a popular vote win.
- rural voters having more trouble than urban voters due to longer home-to-precinct distances, rural road obstructions, slower power recovery than cities.
- Romney is running out of time. We're counting in hours and news cycles now - not days. Every day that Sandy dominates headlines is a day where he can't make progress.
- there's a nasty-looking snowstorm that'll be hitting West Virginia and western Virginia - Romney territory.
- Bill Clinton as a surrogate campaigner is a gift from heaven. The GOP knows that they have nothing that can match him.
- Obama gets to look "presidential" (tired of this term) and competent.
- Romney might start to look desperate if he pushes this too hard.

Swing State Outlook:
Ohio looking good. Every day that passes where Obama's early voting machine operates is a good day. Too much of the cake is already baked; Romney can't change the ingredients or alter the flavor at this point. It'll be yummy.
New Hampshire with a very slight Obama lean.
Virginia is a coin flip.
North Carolina with a Romney lean.
Florida with a slight Romney lean.
Wisconsin with an Obama lean.
Pennsylvania and Minnesota are head-fakes, fools' gold for the GOP.
Iowa with a slight Obama lean.
Nevada is as good as done, and in Obama's hands.
I forgot Colorado: coin flip? Maybe?

Election Night:
It won't be as early as 2008, and it'll be tenser since we're dealing with narrower state margins.. but I'm hopeful that we know the winner by midnight.

My Veins: icy.

Edit: at this time next week, we'll be dissecting Dixville Notch voting results. Last year:
Obama: 15 votes
McCain: 6 votes
 

Diablos

Member
My Sandy bulletpoints:
- no states flipping as a result, but turnout possibly depressed in certain states, slightly increasing Romney's chance of a popular vote win.
- rural voters having more trouble than urban voters due to longer home-to-precinct distances, rural road obstructions, slower power recovery than cities.
- Romney is running out of time. We're counting in hours and news cycles now - not days. Every day that Sandy dominates headlines is a day where he can't make progress.
- there's a nasty-looking snowstorm that'll be hitting West Virginia and western Virginia - Romney territory.
- Bill Clinton as a surrogate campaigner is a gift from heaven. The GOP knows that they have nothing that can match him.
- Obama gets to look "presidential" (tired of this term) and competent.
- Romney might start to look desperate if he pushes this too hard.

Swing State Outlook:
Ohio looking good. Every day that passes where Obama's early voting machine operates is a good day. Too much of the cake is already baked; Romney can't change the ingredients or alter the flavor at this point. It'll be yummy.
New Hampshire with a very slight Obama lean.
Virginia is a coin flip.
North Carolina with a Romney lean.
Florida with a slight Romney lean.
Wisconsin with an Obama lean.
Pennsylvania and Minnesota are head-fakes, fools' gold for the GOP.
Iowa with a slight Obama lean.
Nevada is as good as done, and in Obama's hands.

Election Night:
It won't be as early as 2008, and it'll be tenser since we're dealing with narrower state margins.. but I'm hopeful that we know the winner by midnight.

My Veins: icy.
I actually agree with this for the most part. However I think VA will depend on the northern part of the state and what happens with Sandy. If NoVA shows up, Obama probably wins the state. If not, buh-byes.

Only thing I have to say about Sandy flipping states is that we need to wait and see what happens tomorrow. Also, if the election is even closer than anticipated a lot of people could cry foul and say they couldn't vote because of being inconvenienced by the storm or whatever. That might happen regardless; never underestimate the GOP's fetish with capitalizing on tragedy.

FL is raw turnout really. It's potentially 50/50 but Romney got a lot of things right there (for once). That might protect him just enough there.

Over 6 million people are without power in 13 states + DC. Wonder how long it will take for them to get it back...

Speaking of which, my lights are dimming.
 
I actually agree with this for the most part. However I think VA will depend on the northern part of the state and what happens with Sandy. If NoVA shows up, Obama probably wins the state. If not, buh-byes.

FL is raw turnout really. It's potentially 50/50 but Romney got a lot of things right there (for once). That might protect him just enough there.

Over 6 million people are without power in 13 states + DC. Wonder how long it will take for them to get it back...

Speaking of which, my lights are dimming.

If you agree that Ohio is looking good then why the fuck have you been panicking so much?
 

Diablos

Member
Like I said in my edit, people crying foul due to being seriously inconvenienced by the storm, having no power, having to leave, etc. And the GOP never resisting their fetish for capitalizing on tragedy. If the election is close enough you never know what could happen. I.e. Ohio is +1-1.5% Obama. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the PA GOP tried to pull some bs because they're probably extremely bitter thanks to voter ID getting blocked until post-election

Also I think NoVA is critical for Obama and it is certainly getting hurt by the storm, last thing we need in a super tight race there to begin with. So I haven't stopped "freaking out"
 
AVON LAKE — Local auto workers ripped Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney for his recent comments about government help for the American auto industry.

Members of the United Auto Workers Local 2000, who represent hourly workers at Ford’s Ohio Assembly Plant in Avon Lake, criticized Romney shortly after the former Massachusetts governor made a campaign stop yesterday in the same city.

In the last few days, Democrats and union leaders have pounced on a statement Romney made last week at a rally in Defiance.

Romney apparently misinterpreted a story about Chrysler’s Jeep production for the Chinese auto market and concluded the auto maker was shutting down U.S. production to move jobs to China, according to a news report from the Detroit Free Press.

http://morningjournal.com/articles/2012/10/30/news/doc508f496323074340913362.txt?viewmode=fullstory
 

Diablos

Member
When I wake up tomorrow the election will be seven days away. I need this shit to be fucking over.
Yeah, I think we can all agree this is going to be a long seven days no matter what. All the more reason why I want Obama to win, so when you go on political blackout afterwards, it feels good.
 
In 1997, Congress cracked down on a popular tax shelter that allowed rich people to take advantage of the exempt status of charities without actually giving away much money.

Individuals who had already set up these vehicles were allowed to keep them. That included Mitt Romney, then the chief executive officer of Bain Capital, who had just established such an arrangement in June 1996.

The charitable remainder unitrust, as it is known, is one of several strategies Romney has adopted over his career to reduce his tax bill. While Romney’s tax avoidance is legal and common among high-net-worth individuals, it has become an issue in the campaign. President Barack Obama attacked him in their second debate for paying “lower tax rates than somebody who makes a lot less.”

In this instance, Romney used the tax-exempt status of a charity -- the Mormon Church, according to a 2007 filing -- to defer taxes for more than 15 years. At the same time he is benefitting, the trust will probably leave the church with less than what current law requires, according to tax returns obtained by Bloomberg this month through a Freedom of Information Act request.

In general, charities don’t owe capital gains taxes when they sell assets for a profit. Trusts like Romney’s permit funders to benefit from that tax-free treatment, said Jonathan Blattmachr, a trusts and estates lawyer who set up hundreds of such vehicles in the 1990s.

Near Zero

“The main benefit from a charitable remainder trust is the renting from your favorite charity of its exemption from taxation,” Blattmachr said. Despite the name, giving a gift or getting a charitable deduction “is just a throwaway,” he said. “I used to structure them so the value dedicated to charity was as close to zero as possible without being zero.”

When individuals fund a charitable remainder unitrust, or “CRUT,” they defer capital gains taxes on any profit from the sale of the assets, and receive a small upfront charitable deduction and a stream of yearly cash payments. Like an individual retirement account, the trust allows money to grow tax deferred, while like an annuity it also pays Romney a steady income. After the funder’s death, the trust’s remaining assets go to a designated charity.

Romney’s CRUT, which is only a small part of the $250 million that Romney’s campaign cites as his net worth, has been paying him 8 percent of its assets each year. As the Romneys have received these payments, the money that will potentially be left for charity has declined from at least $750,000 in 2001 to $421,203 at the end of 2011.

...

Romney’s trust was projected to leave to charity an amount with a present value of a little less than 8 percent of the initial contribution, according to an analysis by Friedman. Thus, the specifics of Romney’s trust wouldn’t have passed legal muster if it had been set up 13 months later, he said.

Because the trust’s investments have been earning a return far below its annual payouts to the Romneys, its principal has dwindled rapidly.

In 2001, five years after it was established, the trust had a value of between $750,000 and $1.25 million. Since then, it has pursued a conservative investment strategy -- regardless of the ups and downs of the stock market -- buying a mix of money- market funds, federally-backed bonds and federal bond funds. Since 2007, it has moved its assets entirely into cash. By 2011, its investments earned a return of $48, down from between $60,001 and $100,000 in 2001. It paid $36,696 to the Romneys in 2011.

Romneys Favored

The current investing strategy favors the Romneys over the charity because they get a guaranteed payout, said Michael Arlein, a trusts and estates lawyer at Patterson Belknap Webb & Tyler LLP.

“The Romneys get theirs off the top and the charity gets what’s left,” he said. “So by definition, if it’s not performing as well, the charity gets harmed more.”

The trustee for Romney’s CRUT is R. Bradford Malt, chairman of the law firm Ropes & Gray LLP, and manager for Romney’s various family trusts as well as his personal attorney. Ropes & Gray has also been for years the main outside counsel for Bain Capital.

If the CRUT maintains the same investing strategy, assets will continue to shrink, said Jerome M. Hesch, a tax and estate planning attorney at the law firm Carlton Fields. The trustee acted prudently in protecting against losses during a stock market decline, he said.
Nevertheless, “what’s going to go to charity is probably close to nothing,” Hesch said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...es-via-loophole-cutting-mormon-donations.html

Motherfucker. And this is the guy claiming he will "reduce deductions" and clean up our tax code to make it more fair?

This is the grand comedy of it. Nobody has benefited more from our tax structure than Mitt Romney. The notion that he will make our system more fair is as laughable as anything heard in this or any campaign in history. It is like Dick Cheney claiming to be a man of peace.
 
It means he bought the cliff's notes from Amazon.

No, just that his GOTV effort in FL has been pretty good from what I can tell, plus seniors don't seem to mind bending over for him (which is, frankly, pure lunacy)

LOL

No, his "not being Obama" has been pretty good for him.
 
Why is "American" shown as an ancestry? Is that what those people write in on the census? American? Really?

400px-Census-2000-Data-Top-US-Ancestries-by-County.svg.png

I'm from an 'American' county. In case you were wondering, those counties are probably more 'English' than the 'English' counties. Knowing that I can trace my family back to its creation in the 13th century in England, I still would put down 'American' myself. I could probably give a few guesses why we feel this way, and why greater Utah and New England would still choose to identify as English while most of the Eastern US chooses to identify as American instead, but I doubt it would hold up to scrutiny.

Maybe if English was some fascinating and exciting foreign culture with a difficult and bizarre language I might be more willing to boast about my European heritage, but as I see it, my identity as an American supersedes my identity as a person of English descent. After all, this question is about self-identification, so you can't say it's a wrong answer.
 
At this point, the way this jackass Romney has pissed me off with his shitty ass dishonest campaign, I would love nothing more than for Obama to beat him by 1 vote in Ohio.

Yes, one measley vote in Ohio, cast by Measley.

Re-counted 100 times, same result.

That would be the most delicious fucking ending ever for that guy.

Really? A complete domination and loss larger than 08 would be the best ending ever.
 
Naw, a soul stealing buzzer beater to win by 1 >>> a blowout.

Not in this case. The GOP needs to be told "we don't want your shit. GTFO." resoundingly.

In sports a win is a win. In politics, a close loss means "we're not crazy enough" or "if only we do this a little differently."

A big loss mean in a winnable election means "uhhhh, I think we need to change our policies."
 
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