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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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E

Ecotic

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
Anyone know where I can watch this go down online? I don't have cable/satellite. No way it'd be on CSPAN right? Maybe NPR online?
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Trump says the big reveal will go down on the elite, pay-per-view circuit of twitter. I hope you booked tickets in advance.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...f-Register-interview?Frontpage&nclick_check=1

THE PRESIDENT: Well, keep in mind that some of this is us just working through a very, very deep worldwide financial-based recession. And you guys are probably familiar with some of the work that’s been done on this. Recessions that follow a financial crash of some sort, including the popping of the housing bubble, are not regular recessions. They’re not your typical business cycle recession. And so, in many ways, because of the actions we took early on, we’re actually ahead of pace in the typical recovery out of a recession like this.
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that krugman? roghoff? good answer from the prez.

The second thing I’m confident we’ll get done next year is immigration reform. And since this is off the record, I will just be very blunt. Should I win a second term, a big reason I will win a second term is because the Republican nominee and the Republican Party have so alienated the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, the Latino community. And this is a relatively new phenomenon. George Bush and Karl Rove were smart enough to understand the changing nature of America. And so I am fairly confident that they’re going to have a deep interest in getting that done. And I want to get it done because it’s the right thing to do and I've cared about this ever since I ran back in 2008.
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E

electricpirate

Member
With all the talk about ras, I was curious about their record in 2008. They actually nailed the presidential margin nationally, like super accurate.

Their state by state margin's were abysmal though, and always tilted towards MCCain.

Florida Final 2.8, final Ras McCain +1 Deficit 3.8% off lean towards R
Ohio Final 4.6 Final Ras, Tie Deficit, 4.6% off towards R
Colorado Final 9.0 Ras O+4 Deficit 5 % towards R
Indy Final O + 1.1 Ras Mccain+3 deficit 4% towards R

I could keep going, but yea, Ras state by state polls seem like they are awfull.
 
G

gcubed

Member
They nailed it at the end, they were off leading up to it. I believe they are the only pollster who re-weights to their prescribed party affiliation numbers
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
Latest poll had Bachmann up 9 but it will be closer than that. Think it was an arm of Rasmussen which shouldn't be taken seriously.

John Kline is up 8-9 as well over Mike Obermueller in MN-02. Think that was SUSA which I also think skews Republican.

MN-08 looks like Cravaack can run in NH next time as he's going to lose. Nolan was beating him by a larger ammount than Obama/Romney which I think Romney was even ahead in the 8th but might not remember correctly. Rasmussen arm poll a few days back.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
electricpirate said:
With all the talk about ras, I was curious about their record in 2008. They actually nailed the presidential margin nationally, like super accurate.

Their state by state margin's were abysmal though, and always tilted towards MCCain.

Florida Final 2.8, final Ras McCain +1 Deficit 3.8% off lean towards R
Ohio Final 4.6 Final Ras, Tie Deficit, 4.6% off towards R
Colorado Final 9.0 Ras O+4 Deficit 5 % towards R
Indy Final O + 1.1 Ras Mccain+3 deficit 4% towards R

I could keep going, but yea, Ras state by state polls seem like they are awfull.
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From what I can tell Ras has been fairly accurate for presidential, except for the Gore/Bush election. However, their 2010 state-by-state was pretty terrible.
 
L

LegendofJoe

Member
If the democrats manage to gain control of the house in 2014 what do you guys think the odds are of them trying to pass a carbon tax/trading arrangement?
 
L

Lmo911

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Why would Hillary console Michelle? If anything, Michelle would remind Hillary of Bill.

It seems to me like Obama and Hillary would indeed be a couple in another life. Both have histories of neglect and abuse to a degree, and ultimately both want a simple life but keep getting called to service by their country.
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So Obama is like Snake and Hillary's The Boss? This whole thing's gonna end in heart break, man!
 
E

electricpirate

Member
teruterubozu said:
From what I can tell Ras has been fairly accurate for presidential, except for the Gore/Bush election. However, their 2010 state-by-state was pretty terrible.
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Nationally dead on, but they flail around like crazy in state by state polling, You can check RCP,

Here's another example, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html

8 points off in Nevada? Their polling isn't just wrong, it's consistently wrong in one direction.

gcubed said:
They nailed it at the end, they were off leading up to it. I believe they are the only pollster who re-weights to their prescribed party affiliation numbers
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not sure if I made it clear, nationally they were GREAT, but state by state? at least 2 points towards mcCain in every single swing state, in many states closer to 4-5, and few more even worse.

Nationally their results seem good, but in states, it's Zogby level bad, with a dash of republican bias.

EDIT: Surprisingly, ARG looks pretty good in all these, what's the complain on ARG again?
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
Just rechecked polls.

Bachmann 51-46
Kline 49-41
Nolan 50-43

Think you can shift 3 points in all those based on who took them.

Nolan is safe while Kline and Bachmann might fall in a state wave. Dems may come out to vote NO on amendments or retake the state legislature.
 
W

WaltJay

Member
In the battle of two PR stunts today, I guess this one is happening right now.

The Gloria Allred ‘October surprise’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/24/the-gloria-allred-october-surprise/

The Boston Globe asked a judge to lift an impoundment order on Romney’s testimony in the 1990s divorce case between Tom Stemberg and Maureen Stemberg Sullivan.
Romney lawyer Robert Jones told Time Magazine: “This is a decades-old divorce case in which Mitt Romney provided testimony as to the value of a company. He has no objection to letting the public see that testimony.”
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ZZZZZZZZZZZZ....

Where are my polls? That's the only news I care about at this point.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
WaltJay said:
In the battle of two PR stunts today, I guess this one is happening right now.

The Gloria Allred ‘October surprise’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/24/the-gloria-allred-october-surprise/



ZZZZZZZZZZZZ....

Where are my polls? That's the only news I care about at this point.
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TMZ has already been all over this:

Multiple sources connected with the divorce tell TMZ ... during Tom's uber nasty divorce case with ex-wife Maureen, Mitt Romney gave a deposition and testified during the trial that Staples was worth virtually nothing. Romney testified that the company was worth very little and Tom was a dreamer and "the dream continues."

Romney characterized the Staples stock as "overvalued," adding, "I didn't place a great deal of credibility in the forecast of the company's future."

Partly as a result of Romney's testimony, Maureen got relatively little in the divorce, but we're told just weeks after the divorce ended, Romney and Tom went to Goldman Sachs and cashed in THEIR stock for a fortune. Short story -- Romney allegedly lied to help his friend and screw the friend's wife over.
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http://www.tmz.com/2012/10/24/mitt-romney-tom-stemberg-staples-lied-perjury-divorce-case-maureen/

If true, that's pretty shady, but nobody will care and it will change nothing
 
P

pigeon

Banned
That des moines interview is pretty solid, although even off the record he dodged the question of the obstructionist Congress.
 
CHEEZMO™

CHEEZMO™

Obsidian fan
Could someone give me a TL;DR of happenings since Friday? I've been unable to get on the Internets (I did watch the debate on TV).
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Downhome said:
That is more substantial than anything Trump will release. I think it's a pretty big deal actually.
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Too bad the GOP already blew their load on the minutia. Had they waited and gathered the facts, they could have made this a much better deal. Instead they tried to manufacture controversy and missed the boat on a bigger lie the admin told.

CHEEZMO™;43550310 said:
Could someone give me a TL;DR of happenings since Friday? I've been unable to get on the Internets (I did watch the debate on TV).
Click to expand...

The good thing is we have a sudden drop in furry and MLP avatars in PoliGAF (heretofore named Polligaf until 11/7).
 
B

Byakuya769

Member
Was Maureen a stay at home mom? Kind of odd that Mitt would go out of his way to screw over someone who was in the hardest working profession.
 
C

codhand

Member
I'm not sure how it's a big deal, if you read this and the Reuter's article, it mentions the fact that intelligence felt the attack was spontaneous, in addition the world now knows Obama declared it an "act of terror" the following day. In short it's a big deal for those who want it to be, ie Matt Drudge.


One U.S. intelligence official said that during the first classified briefing about Benghazi given to members of Congress, officials "carefully laid out the full range of sparsely available information, relying on the best analysis available at the time."

The official added, however, that the initial analysis of the attack that was presented to legislators was mixed.

"Briefers said extremists were involved in attacks that appeared spontaneous, there may have been a variety of motivating factors, and possible links to groups such as (al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Ansar al-Sharia) were being looked at closely," the official said.
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R

RustyNails

Member
CHEEZMO™;43550310 said:
Could someone give me a TL;DR of happenings since Friday? I've been unable to get on the Internets (I did watch the debate on TV).
Click to expand...

3rd Debate - Horses and Bayonets
New economic plan unveiled by White House
GOP senate candidate - Rape babies are the will of God
Dolan Trump about to reveal october surprise at 12PM - Michelle and Barack filed for divorce in 2000
 
D

Downhome

Member
codhand said:
I'm not sure how it's a big deal, if you read this and the Reuter's article, it mentions the fact that intelligence felt the attack was spontaneous, in addition the world now knows Obama declared it an "act of terror" the following day. In short it's a big deal for those who want it to be, ie Matt Drudge.
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It's the top story on every site I've gone to today and on all the news channels. It certainly isn't just Drudge on this one.
 
V

Veitsev

Member
Doc Holliday said:
I guess this will the be the GOP talking point till the election

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/24/us/libya-benghazi-e-mails/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
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So the U.S. government receives word that an islamist group claims the attack on Facebook and Twitter two hours after the attack. That group later denied those Facebook claims, "but not convincingly". This means what exactly? Is the president supposed to say "Well we don't have hard evidence on who is behind this, but rather than wait for things to clear up this Facebook post is good enough?"
 
C

codhand

Member
CHEEZMO™;43550310 said:
Could someone give me a TL;DR of happenings since Friday?
Click to expand...

v9IeK.png
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.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Trump says its not in relation to anything reported so far, which takes divorce and crack dealing off the table. Perhaps it's news about his alleged affair; I remember there being an old story about him being caught on camera seeing some woman
 
R

RustyNails

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Trump says its not in relation to anything reported so far, which takes divorce and crack dealing off the table. Perhaps it's news about his alleged affair; I remember there being an old story about him being caught on camera seeing some woman
Click to expand...

Was the woman wearing pantsuits/wife of a former President?
 
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