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[RiZ III]

I live in DuPage & work in Lake County. My only source of hopium is lurking this thread

What city are you in? I grew up in Wheaton. Never had the sense that I was living in a liberal state lol. Even now when I drive by there are Romney signs all over the place. We had an Obama sign on our yard last time if only to troll the rest of the neighborhood.

 

[Black Mamba]

Americans, I am pretty interested in your election but I find your electoral system too complicated.

Explain to me, why is who wins Ohio so important over who wins other states?

Because when you add in the states Obama will win and the states Romney will win for sure, it turns out that whoever wins Ohio almost certainly wins the election.

There's more detail to this, but this is the basis of it all. Ohio is the tipping point between having enough votes and not, for the most part.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

My hopium is at heightened levels.

 

[Drek]

OMG! You managed to work brony material into that! I am disgusted and amused.

Aren't we all every time Christie speaks publicly?

 

[Brinbe]

Charlie Cook is catching up with PoliGAF:



It's nice that he's right, but it's a little sad that reading Charlie Cook, a well-known and popular pundit, is about as informative as flipping to the 538 page you haven't refreshed for two days.

Only about two months late.

 

[Evlar]

Hey guys it's been a long time but I'm glad to be back. Best political discussion in the interwebs! So, what are we-

The smell of well oiled leather filled his nostrils. The cold iron buckles holding the leather straps tight to his broad, bare chest gave him shivers. November 7th was late in the year for such a ride, but he knew when the call came that he was powerless to refuse.

[more political fanfic]

"NEIGH!" the governor cried, biting the apple with eagerness and fervor.

[MUCH more political fanfic]

Just, uh, remembered I have any place else on earth to be. Cya.

 

[Farmboy]

Really? Has Obama run a Mitt Then vs. Now ad? Really this hits to the heart of the Presidency, can you trust the guy? I've heard Obama talk about trust recently but showing is better than telling. Mitt's flip flops should be an ad. And his flip on FEMA should be a part of it. Anyone with a sense of reason would not vote for Mitt after seeing him take multiple positions on multiple issues.

This is a deliberate strategy, though. Team Obama focus-tested the flip-flop attacks only to discover that voters kind of liked the idea that Mitt was just pandering during the primaries and would turn out to be much more moderate: having him be sort of a rorschach candidate in which those desillusioned with Obama could see whatever they wanted. Better to paint him as staunchly conservative.

Of course, that backfired a little when Romney so rigorously etched-a-sketched during the first debate. So now they're calling him out for his flip flops (and really, they are, just watch the rally with Bill Clinton and Joe Biden for a recent example), but always with the premise being "Don't believe Moderate Mitt, Severely Conservative Mitt is the real one!" rather than "Who is the real Mitt Romney? We just don't know!". The pushback on the Jeep ad is an example of this: calling him out on his dishonesty, but making sure to repeat his original 'Let Detroit Go Bankrupt Line, painting that as being what he really believes.

I think that's basically a sound strategy, as Severely Conservative Mitt is the one that scares swing voters most.

 

[Reuenthal]

Because when you add in the states Obama will win and the states Romney will win for sure, it turns out that whoever wins Ohio almost certainly wins the election.

There's more detail to this, but this is the basis of it all. Ohio is the tipping point between having enough votes and not, for the most part.

Ah, I see. And Obama has a big advantage of winning Ohio, right?

 

[Amir0x]

You better record their tears after election day.

There is one employee in particular that I have privately debated on this election every single fucking day for like a year. His name is Gary O'Toole (yes, that's his fucking name). He has to be the most bitter, delusional fuck I've ever heard in my life. It never ever mattered what the news was about Romney, he thinks he has run the greatest campaign in political history. EVERYTHING, anything, to do with Obama is negative. Everything. I asked him to name one positive and he couldn't, and when I mentioned Osama Bin Laden he just turned it into a screed about the president taking all the credit like the "****** he is."

Every day, no matter how the polling is, Romney is in the lead. Every day, no matter what the story is, Romney has done no wrong. Every day, no matter what Obama did, Romney would have done it better somehow.



So far I got to suck up the tears in the most amazing fashion after the Affordable Health Care act was saved by the Supreme Court. He was literally screaming at the top of his lungs at me and was forced to leave work early lol

 

[pigeon]

Americans, I am pretty interested in your election but I find your electoral system too complicated.

Explain to me, why is who wins Ohio so important over who wins other states?

To put it simply, it isn't really -- it's just that Ohio represents approximately the midpoint of the blue state/red state continuum this year. (It changes -- there was a time it was Maine, then Missouri, etc.) If Obama wins Ohio and every state in which he's polled better than in Ohio, he'll win 270 votes; if Romney does the same, he'll win 270. So it's not that Ohio's the kingmaker as much as that it's the bellwether.

edit: Mamba's a little bit faster saying the same thing slightly differently. And yes, Obama currently has about a 3 point edge in Ohio, which is a lot given the amount of polling going on there.

 

[Tristam]

Ah, I see. And Obama has a big advantage of winning Ohio, right?

Nate Silver gives him a 73.3% chance of winning Ohio.

 

[Jallopy]

Did me some early voting; another +1 for Barry in the Buckeye State.

 

[Black Mamba]

Ah, I see. And Obama has a big advantage of winning Ohio, right?

Well, big is subjective. But I'd say he's a 3:1 favorite to win the state. Whether one considers that big is up to them.

 

[Byakuya769]

Well, big is subjective. But I'd say he's a 3:1 favorite to win the state. Whether one considers that big is up to them.

Sounds like a toss up to me.

 

[Reuenthal]

Thanks for the info guys.

 

[The Librarian]

 

[speculawyer]

Americans, I am pretty interested in your election but I find your electoral system too complicated.

Explain to me, why is who wins Ohio so important over who wins other states?

It is not that Ohio is particularly important state. Most states already have a huge bias one way or another. The South & Mountain states prefer Romeny. The Northeast and west coast prefer Obama.

So there are relatively few states left with large numbers of electoral votes that are close contests. Ohio is one that seems to play this role all the time.

One of the best ways to look at it is go here:
http://www.270towin.com/
Most of the states are pre-set to be their nominal tilt (blue=Obama, Red=Romney).
Click on Ohio and see how it controls the election depending on who wins.

Of course other states can also play this role such as Florida & Virginia. But Ohio is often the one that has a very close race.

 

[Amir0x]

hey guys I hear Obama has been ahead in Ohio every single motherfuckin' day this year, without exception.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percent.

"Romney to win Ohio, race a tie."

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Hopium

 

[Aaron Strife]

Pre-storm relief or post?

 

[Amir0x]

Pre-storm relief or post?

Data Collected: 10/26/2012 - 10/29/2012

so yup during the storm too

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 685 adults from the state of Ohio 10/26/12 through 10/29/12. Of the adults, 611 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 603 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 

[Amir0x]

Also:

In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, Democrat Sherrod Brown edges Republican Josh Mandel 46% to 41%. Week-on-week, Brown is up 3 points, Mandel is down 1 point. Week-on-week, Brown has gained ground among both men and women, young and old.

 

[Link]

hey guys I hear Obama has been ahead in Ohio every single motherfuckin' day this year, without exception.

But Fox News told me yesterday that there was that one poll that showed Romney ahead, and he's got the momentum now!

 

[pigeon]

On the topic of political emails to employees:

Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne used an e-mail to employees today to refute the implication in a Romney TV ad that Chrysler may move all Jeep production from the U.S. to China.

“Jeep production will not be moved from the United States to China,” Marchionne stated in the e-mail. “The numbers tell the story,” followed by specific investments Chrysler has made at its plants in Detroit, Toledo and Belvidere, Ill. “Those include more than $1.7 billion to produce the successor of the Jeep Liberty and hire about 1,100 workers on a second shift by 2013.”

http://www.freep.com/article/201210...ney-implies-GM-used-U-S-aid-create-jobs-China

In this case I feel like it's a little more justifiable since Romney started it, but I could be biased. Leaving aside the ethical question, though...the CEO of Chrysler just emailed all his employees to tell them that Romney is lying.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Data Collected: 10/26/2012 - 10/29/2012

so yup during the storm too

Doesn't include Romney's rally. We have no way of gauging where the race is now.

 

[Black Mamba]

Pre-storm relief or post?

10/26-29

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=11cca51d-06ab-40f5-8ba1-0c8ddc33d855

 

[The Librarian]

It is not that Ohio is particularly important state. Most states already have a huge bias one way or another. The South & Mountain states prefer Romeny. The Northeast and west coast prefer Obama.

So there are relatively few states left with large numbers of electoral votes that are close contests. Ohio is one that seems to play this role all the time.

One of the best ways to look at it is go here:
http://www.270towin.com/
Most of the states are pre-set to be their nominal tilt (blue=Obama, Red=Romney).
Click on Ohio and see how it controls the election depending on who wins.

Of course other states can also play this role such as Florida & Virginia. But Ohio is often the one that has a very close race.

Ohio is the most important state of the election. Romney can't win without it, and once it's called it's over.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Data Collected: 10/26/2012 - 10/29/2012

so yup during the storm too

i like how people think that romney is going to make up 3-4 points in less than a week when as you said he hasn't been up at any point this year.

 

[Arrowgigantic]

Guys. I just realized.

What if a piece of the hurricane is still alive and it reforms?

 

[Brinbe]

i like how people think that romney is going to make up 3-4 points in less than a week when as you said he hasn't been up at any point this year.

Exactly. Race is as static as it's going to get and Romney's not getting an opportunity for anything close to his debate bounce, so we're just playing it out now.

 

[Amir0x]

But Fox News told me yesterday that there was that one poll that showed Romney ahead, and he's got the momentum now!

Rasmussen is the most trustworthy poll outlet; with it you can safely ignore the poll aggregate of Ohio for the entire year. Trust me.

Doesn't include Romney's rally. We have no way of gauging where the race is now.

lmfao

i like how people think that romney is going to make up 3-4 points in less than a week when as you said he hasn't been up at any point this year.

Hell, you can put the race at 2 points (which is probably where it is realistically) and there's still no way to make up that ground.

And Romney's backfiring Jeep Attack just made it even harder!

 

[Link]

On the topic of political emails to employees:



http://www.freep.com/article/201210...ney-implies-GM-used-U-S-aid-create-jobs-China

In this case I feel like it's a little more justifiable since Romney started it, but I could be biased. Leaving aside the ethical question, though...the CEO of Chrysler just emailed all his employees to tell them that Romney is lying.

The difference is he's not implying who to vote for anywhere in that email. He's simply (understandably) letting employees know that their jobs are not in danger.

 

[Black Republican]

my guesses on the big 3 from Quinnipiac for tomorrow

Ohio 50-46 O
Virginia 49-47 O
Florida 48 tie

 

[Amir0x]

my guesses on the big 3 from Quinnipiac for tomorrow

Ohio 50-46 O
Virginia 49-47 O
Florida 48 tie

Ohio: 49 48 O
Virginia 49 49
Florida 49 48 R

 

[Aaron Strife]

Ohio 50-46 O

Tie

Virginia 49-47 O
Florida 48 tie

Lean Romney

 

[RDreamer]

Every day, no matter how the polling is, Romney is in the lead. Every day, no matter what the story is, Romney has done no wrong. Every day, no matter what Obama did, Romney would have done it better somehow.

You know PD in real life?

 

[Black Mamba]

That SUSA shows Obama 83-13 among blacks.

Hopefully it's more like the 93-95 we'd expect.

It also shows Brown ahead of Mandel by 5.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Data Collected: 10/26/2012 - 10/29/2012

so yup during the storm too

But that doesn't take into account Mitt's Relief Event so we should probably wait a week to see if there is a bounce.

 

[Black Mamba]

On which is of greater concern in Ohio.

SMFH.

 

[786110]

That SUSA shows Obama 83-13 among blacks.

Hopefully it's more like the 93-95 we'd expect.

Stacey Dash endorsement a game changer

 

[Angry Grimace]

Because when you add in the states Obama will win and the states Romney will win for sure, it turns out that whoever wins Ohio almost certainly wins the election.

There's more detail to this, but this is the basis of it all. Ohio is the tipping point between having enough votes and not, for the most part.

If Obama carries Virginia and keeps Wisconsin, he'll just win anyways even if he loses Ohio, Florida and Colorado.

(My favorite Polli-GAF meme is the Romney Rally Effect)

 

[Aaron Strife]

On which is of greater concern in Ohio.

SMFH.

Good coloring choices...

 

[Amir0x]

On which is of greater concern in Ohio.

SMFH.

can't see the image for some reason

 

[ErasureAcer]

This is a deliberate strategy, though. Team Obama focus-tested the flip-flop attacks only to discover that voters kind of liked the idea that Mitt was just pandering during the primaries and would turn out to be much more moderate: having him be sort of a rorschach candidate in which those desillusioned with Obama could see whatever they wanted. Better to paint him as staunchly conservative.

Of course, that backfired a little when Romney so rigorously etched-a-sketched during the first debate. So now they're calling him out for his flip flops (and really, they are, just watch the rally with Bill Clinton and Joe Biden for a recent example), but always with the premise being "Don't believe Moderate Mitt, Severely Conservative Mitt is the real one!" rather than "Who is the real Mitt Romney? We just don't know!". The pushback on the Jeep ad is an example of this: calling him out on his dishonesty, but making sure to repeat his original 'Let Detroit Go Bankrupt Line, painting that as being what he really believes.

I think that's basically a sound strategy, as Severely Conservative Mitt is the one that scares swing voters most.

Kill FEMA Mitt is more scary than "FEMA/Mitt both have 4 letters and thus both awesome" Mitt. So as I said before Obama should be playing up scary Mitt in some regard. If Obama doesn't call out Romney's FEMA remarks then Dems are the pussies everyone says they are.

 

[RDreamer]

If Obama carries Virginia and keeps Wisconsin, he'll just win anyways even if he loses Ohio, Florida and Colorado.

Yeah, I was looking at that this morning. It seems now that New Hampshire is pretty solid for Obama that means he only needs: Colorado + Iowa OR Virginia OR Ohio.

That's assuming Wisconsin's in his column, too. Still, that's decent odds.

 

[pigeon]

If Obama carries Virginia and keeps Wisconsin, he'll just win anyways even if he loses Ohio, Florida and Colorado.

This is true, but Obama's polling better in Ohio than in Virginia, so Ohio is more likely to be the tipping point. I definitely agree and have been noting that Obama has way more paths to victory than Romney in the event that he drops one or two states he's leading in.

 

[Black Republican]

Yeah, I was looking at that this morning. It seems now that New Hampshire is pretty solid for Obama that means he only needs: Colorado + Iowa OR Virginia OR Ohio.

That's assuming Wisconsin's in his column, too. Still, that's decent odds.

do u see WI getting redder in the next decade?

 

[Angry Grimace]

This is true, but Obama's polling better in Ohio than in Virginia, so Ohio is more likely to be the tipping point. I definitely agree and have been noting that Obama has way more paths to victory than Romney in the event that he drops one or two states he's leading in.

It is, but I'm just pointing a not implausible at all scenario in which Obama loses Ohio and wins.

do u see WI getting redder in the next decade?

Wisconsin turning red at least this year would be a relatively minor miracle. I think Wisconsin is the least in play of the swing-states. I mean, sure Rasmussen doesn't think so, but Rasmussen is full of shit.

 

[rohlfinator]

The Republicans hate him because he is saying their guy will lose. The media doesn't really like him because he cuts through their bullshit faux narratives.

Yup. I suspect that he's becoming a bigger target now because as the election gets closer, they're becoming more and more worried that he's right.

The problem I have is that the "intuition" guys actually believe that Silver's model is snake oil if Romney wins the election.

And if Obama wins, they'll just say "he made a lucky guess, it was a 50/50 chance". There is nothing that will convince them if they don't want to be convinced.

 

[Aaron Strife]

do u see WI getting redder in the next decade?

I could see WI and MN turning red over the years, as Democrats shift their coalition to the South and win on the strength of black/Hispanic votes alone, while Republicans become more of a populist big tent party.