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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Hurricane Sandy made it very likely Romney will win Pennsylvania. And Michigan is moving toss-up because Romney's Jeep Attack has been very effective.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Damn I can't wait for Nate to be proven right.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
This is because many conservatives have taken the tack that liberals are literally never correct; see Amir0x's post above.
I give them one more bite at the apple before the GOP starts moderating.
Same price as Borderlands 2
Aaron Strife
Banned
Minnesota is a toss-up because MITTMENTUM and it turned out Amy Klobuchar is gay!
I'm not sure. My gut instinct is that this is probably the reddest it'll get for a bit in national elections, and from now on it'll probably drift back to something more standard. The state is still pretty liberal, because it has strong progressive movements at its colleges and some decent cities to carry it. I mean look, Tammy Baldwin is going to beat a guy who was a pretty well liked governor now, and she's doing it while being slammed every 3 seconds on the TV for being the most liberal person since Karl Marx.
I think part of the drift hinges on if we have anyone to take on Walker in the next decade. He's really not doing a great job, but I think he'll get credit for the recovery that'll happen anyway, and his fanbase is still slightly rabid. I'm not sure he'll be able to push things again like he did his first term, though, and because of that I don't think his base (or I suppose the opposition) is going to get any more rabid, either.
But, yeah, to sum it up I think this is about as red as we get.
There are 538 electoral votes and to become president you need half of them plus 1 (270). If you lined up all of the states and their electoral votes from most likely to vote Obama to most likely to vote Romney and then drew a line in the middle to represent 269 votes you would find Ohio.
In other words, ignoring Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado, New Hampshire, and Florida (all of which appear less likely to go Obama than Ohio) Obama has a winning coalition of 271 electoral votes that includes Ohio. Of those 271 votes, Ohio's 18 represent the ones that Romney would be most able to take.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Yeah, if Wisc, Nevada and NH are all in Obama's camp...any of those 3 scenarios gives him the win.
If Obama takes FL... this will be over quick. Be nice to enjoy the election rather than worrying all night.
it was somewhat damp this morning out in orange county. i fear the whole county might go republican, handing california to romney.
the question is were wind speeds over 5mph?
Polls show areas where wind speed goes above 5mph less than a week til Election Day generally go Red.
This is actually a really interesting question, because the people who are winning the election for Obama aren't really part of his Goonies/Hope and Change coalition at all -- they're blue-collar white voters, who are part of the old New Deal Democratic coalition. So will the Democrats manage to hold onto those voters? That would represent either a Biden-style hooking of organized labor, or a more overtly urban pitch. If they don't, they'll probably lose Wisconsin and Iowa over time as they pick up Texas and Arizona. (Which seems like a fair trade to me.)
rohlfinator
Member
Maybe, I could definitely see them doubling down for a while though. I think they see their success in 2010 as a vindication of far-right principles, and this election will be close enough that they can go with the "Romney was too moderate" narrative. So it'll still be pretty easy for them to convince themselves that the country still favors them. I'd be a little surprised if they moderate themselves without first losing a couple landslide elections.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I'm sure turning WI red was part of why he picked Ryan, but it doesn't seem likely at all that Mitt's going to turn WI given the four point spread. As Silver noted, dropping a four point polling lead in with 10 days left has never happened.
The natural improvement of the economy will make a lot of the crazy naturally go away. Bush ran in 2000 as a compassionate conservative, not a Guns N Ammo fuck the EEOC candidate.
speculawyer
Member
But it has nothing to do with Ohio's geography, resources, location, etc.
Ohio just randomly happens to be a state with a closely divided public between D & R and have decent number of votes. It is a random quirk of this time in history. As someone else mentioned, it has been other states that played this role and the role may move to other states in the future.
It depends on why they start getting ahead in Texas. If Obama completes immigration reform during this term and solidifies latino support as a block, and they end up voting like African Americans do, then I don't think they need to change much. They're already going to get their votes by the simple fact that they helped them where it counts and aren't Republicans who want to hurt them where it counts. I realize latinos are actually more conservative people, but I think by the time Texas is a swing state I'm just not sure gay marriage and stuff will be able to scare them all to much so that they abandon the people that really pushed on immigration reform.
Black Mamba
Member
Who wants HOPIUM? I got your HOPIUM right here! Step right up and get it.
And now NBA season starts tonight. Woo.
Consumer Surveys ‏@Google_Surveys
Today's @Google_Surveys #election poll: #Obama 47.1%/#Romney 43.1% http://goo.gl/xQ0BA @fivethirtyeight @washingtonpost @NBCPolitics
Today's @Google_Surveys #election poll: #Obama 47.1%/#Romney 43.1% http://goo.gl/xQ0BA @fivethirtyeight @washingtonpost @NBCPolitics
And now NBA season starts tonight. Woo.
Don't worry.. if and when Ohio goes blue next week, it will remain the liberals' darling for quite some time to come. At the very least, you guys won't get grouped-in with the Mississippis, Louisianas and Alabamas (i.e., "#s 48, 49, and 50 in most quality of life studies") in terms of reputation.
New CBS News/New York Times poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47% among likely voters. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/us/politics/race-narrows-as-campaign-enters-its-final-week.html?hp
God help you all.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I wonder what the mood is like at Gallup right now. As much as they're required to stick with whatever model is showing a 7 pt. Romney lead, the fact remains that they're obviously correcting something wrong since national polls haven't been super inaccurate in all of the other elections they have been employed in.
He's already given WI and NV to Obama as a given.
He's already given WI and NV to Obama as a given.
Black Mamba
Member
Obama up in:
RAND
NYT
Reuters
IBD
UPI
GWU
Romney up in:
Gallup
Ras
ABC
NPR
Newsmax
PPP
Tied in:
Pew
ARG
Kos/PPP
Average says Obama slightly up. It's essentially tied, though.
It's hilarious how conservatives keep saying Romney is up 4 by only looking at Gallup. Most the polls have Obama up. Ras and Gallup are the only ones giving Romney more than 1 right now.
True.
Still, it's interesting to think that although Ohio has a myth of itself being an all important state in the general election, it's a status that' built upon a million accidents. All it would take is for VA and CO to become half a shade bluer and Ohio's importance is dramatically changed.
At least Iowa and New Hampshire get to have their importance in the primary be a secure thing.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Every time I see these polls, my heart is naturally inclined to speed up, until I remember that it's for the popular vote.
el retorno
Member
Romney just has no luck in Iowa lol
Obama wins Principal Financials cookie poll
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/...wins-principal-financials-cookie-poll/article
Obama wins Principal Financials cookie poll
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/...wins-principal-financials-cookie-poll/article
speculawyer
Member
It is coming down to Obama just needs to win Ohio OR Virginia OR Florida OR (Colorado & NH).
Black Mamba
Member
Added a few polls I missed. Only 4 polls has it anything but a 1 point or tied race. 2 on each side.
Nationally, the race is tied according to the polling.
Nationally, the race is tied according to the polling.
RustyNails
Member
Well, why do you tolerate that racist prick? Granted I work in an air-conditioned office, but I'd imagine that if I were in a situation where an asshole keeps repeating the n-word, I'll tell him to tone it down/not use in my presence. Or I'll just report to the higher ups. I dunno much about working at army depot, but I can straight up tell you that I cannot work in an environment where 90% of workers are political sheep and/or racists. Anyways, their tears are gonna be so salty they could corrode their skulls.
Enjoy it. I'm jealous, but would imagine that my non-political-junky friends and family would loathe it if Louisiana's EVs were up for grabs. We'd see a ton of visits. Great photo op locations here..
speculawyer
Member
That is nothing but the media attempting to build up some drama. Those are all (heavily) lean to Obama states that Romney doesn't really have a shot in.
RustyNails
Member
Didn't Obama's Black Panther thugs closed down Gallup? If so, why are we still taking their poll, which I assume is couple of days old?
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
62% view Halloween favorably, 26% will be dressing up, 15% still undecided on costume
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
38% of men say they'd survive at least a year during a zombie outbreak while 35% of women say less than a week
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
37% of voters say they believe in ghosts - 26% say they've seen a ghost.
62% view Halloween favorably, 26% will be dressing up, 15% still undecided on costume
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
38% of men say they'd survive at least a year during a zombie outbreak while 35% of women say less than a week
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
37% of voters say they believe in ghosts - 26% say they've seen a ghost.
speculawyer
Member
Hey man, I grew up in Minnesota so I'm a midwesterner. Ohio has plenty going for it. Farming, industry, etc. And I really want Ohio to remain with its blue midwestern brethren of Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and (often) Iowa. Fuck those Hoosiers though. ;-)
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Ahh, a fellow intelligent Ohioan. Well met, friend.
no.
there is another
iowa, colorado, and ohio get called relatively early. too close to call in virginia until the next day.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Now these are polls I can get behind.
reggieandTFE
Member
Is anyone else hoping that Romney wins the popular vote due to subdued turnout in NE blue states, but still romps to a 300+ electoral vote win? The tears of sadness from the republicans will redeem those tears of anger from 12 years ago!
And Obama still wins, that has to hurt lol
people are going to shit on obama anyway, but i don't want to give them even more of a reason.
speculawyer
Member
That is FUCKING SCARY statistic. Think about the number of those people that looked at the Bush economic collapse and decided they wanted more of that!
reggieandTFE
Member
True, sticking it in their faces would get old as the "illegitimate" cries raised by Tea Partiers in the House held up every single bill again.
Well, Drudge removed Politico's Nate Silver story fairly quickly. I bet it has something to do with the massive amount of user comments defending Nate and mathematics.
I also noticed Drudge now lists Nate Silver in his source list. "One trick pony" my butt.
And this might be a clue that republicans are identifying as republicans:
In that poll 40% independents say that Romney would follow Bush's economic policies somewhat closely, and 19% say very closely. In the overall poll independents are split 51 to 39 for Romney. That means a good chunk of Independents not only are voting for Bush again, but readily admit it.
Also, 80% of the people in that poll say Obama would raise taxes on businesses. 15% said he would not. 50% say Obama would raise taxes on "someone like you," and 42% say he would not. For Romney 54% said he would raise taxes on "someone like you," and 44% said he would not.
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