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[Squirrel Killer]

http://www.baydounconsulting.com/

If that guy with that resume, that limited skill set, and that skimpy of an education and client list can hang his shingle out for political consulting, I totally shouldn't have listened to my wife.

 

[AniHawk]

Also a one-termer, which tends to give presidents negative reputations.

man, if only he won against gore instead of his son.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Florida and Virginia essentially tied... hm.

That could very easily be 2 point leads for Obama.

That is what I immediately assumed, provided everyone is operating under Wolf Blitzer rules. I really think Romney is going to have to scrape and claw his way in Virginia but will still fall short, with the same possibility of having to do so in Florida. And if he has to do that in those two states, he sure as shit isn't going to be doing it in other states.

 

[HylianTom]

he didn't seem like such a bad president, but i don't know if conservatives really like him, or if he even likes conservatives all that much.

He gave us Souter. But then again, he also gave us Thomas. Eww.

His VP was great comedic fodder for Murphy Brown.

(I wish I could find that image of the dump truck full of potatoes going to the VP's residence)

 

[thefit]

he didn't seem like such a bad president, but i don't know if conservatives really like him, or if he even likes conservatives all that much.

"Read My Lips: No New Taxes"


That right there is why you wont see him anywhere near today's so called Reublicans.

 

[Cloudy]

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Obama up to 77% in tonight's 538 forecast (from 73%). He got decent polls in OH; model super sensitive to those. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

 

[Aylinato]

If that guy with that resume, that limited skill set, and that skimpy of an education and client list can hang his shingle out for political consulting, I totally shouldn't have listened to my wife.

He is very mean in person, and have seen him spin the truth so badly on so many different occasions.

I remember we had a problem in our student government, and he was in law school at a different university and came back for two weeks to "lecture" and argue with my friends about how his "friends" were correct in their stances and how the constitution of the SG body(which I helped write) didn't mean what I intended it to mean. Made me chuckle so hard when I raised my hand and shut him down with "when I was writing this constitution.." shoulda seen the look on his face!

 

[speculawyer]

he didn't seem like such a bad president, but i don't know if conservatives really like him, or if he even likes conservatives all that much.

I think that would be a plus for Romney right now. Romney has been sprinting away from the conservative label.

 

[Paches]

I just came back from the future a week from this exact moment.

President Romney.

 

[Aylinato]

I just came back from the future a week from this exact moment.

President Romney.

Sorry biff, i already went back and fixed it! Obama gets 4 more! *steals ur newspaper with the lotto numbers*

 

[Captain Pants]

Joe Biden is a beautiful human being, best vice president in the last 100 years.

Completely fucking agreed.

 

[Paches]

Anyone wonder if Obama has an aide slamming F5 on 538 every night?

 

[Marvie_3]

I just came back from the future a week from this exact moment.

President Romney.

President of the Mitt Romney fan club maybe.

 

[pigeon]

Anyone wonder if Obama has an aide slamming F5 on 538 every night?

It comes in with his security briefing in the morning.

If nothing else happens tomorrow but those Quinnipiac polls, Obama will certainly cross 80% in the nowcast. Maybe 85%.

 

[metalslimer]

Anyone wonder if Obama has an aide slamming F5 on 538 every night?

I'm sure Romney does.

 

[HylianTom]

I will admit:
there's a small part of me that is hoping that things will tick a few points over towards Obama nationally over the last few days, giving him a respectable popular vote victory and a slammin' Electoral College victory.

I'm being greedy, aren't I?

 

[ido]

Any particular reason why more people here seem prefer Silver over Wang? Silver's model seems more... intricate, at least.

But Wang with that confidence lol.

 

[B-Dubs]

Why aren't people sending in their ballots ahead of time? Time off to vote is a severe issue. There is no guarantee. This should be a federally mandated thing where people are allowed to take time off to vote.

I don't care which side of the fence you're on.

See, this is something we can all agree on. Election day should be a national holiday or everyone should have access to early voting.

 

[Aylinato]

Anyone wonder if Obama has an aide slamming F5 on 538 every night?

If you can count me, then yes.
Not paid,

 

[pigeon]

I will admit:
there's a small part of me that is hoping that things will tick a few points over towards Obama nationally over the last few days, giving him a respectable popular vote victory and a slammin' Electoral College victory.

I'm being greedy, aren't I?

I still think this is pretty likely, and only going to get likelier over the next week.

 

[Trurl]

I'd like to see the now cast and the forecast graphs laid on top of each other.

 

[Link]

Jesus Christ, Fox News is still obsessing over Benghazi? Give it up, guys.

 

[HylianTom]

Any particular reason why more people here seem prefer Silver over Wang? Silver's model seems more... intricate, at least.

But Wang with that confidence lol.

I personally like Silver's state-by-state analysis.
But I like Wang's confidence intervals/z-scoring.

So I like both.

 

[speculawyer]

But Wang with that confidence lol.

That's what I always say.

 

[Marvie_3]

I will admit:
there's a small part of me that is hoping that things will tick a few points over towards Obama nationally over the last few days, giving him a respectable popular vote victory and a slammin' Electoral College victory.

I'm being greedy, aren't I?

.

 

[PhoenixDark]

O 50 R 45 Quinnipiac

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Whoa, early MT @Taniel: Obama leads 50-45 in Ohio, per NYT/Quinnipiac.FL & VA are "essentially tied."

WOOO

 

[Frank the Great]

O 50 R 45 Quinnipiac

Meh I'll wait for polls later in the week, when Romney's jeep ad has had time to work its magic.

 

[Aaron Strife]

O 50 R 45 Quinnipiac

Do you still think Obama's going to lose Ohio? If so, why?

 

[bananas]

WOOO

Oh god. I'm OD'ing! I can't handle all this hope!

 

[B-Dubs]

Oh god. I'm OD'ing! I can't handle all this hope!

I know that feel man, I'm one hit away from permanent coma status.

 

[speculawyer]

Jesus Christ, Fox News is still obsessing over Benghazi? Give it up, guys.

It is at the point where it is getting to be weird. Fox News is going bezerk over Benghazi and no one else is even talking about it except mentioning McCain shaking his fist at the cloud over Benghazi. They are soooo trying to manufacture a scandal and they've managed to create another Fast & Furious . . . a scandal no one quite fully understands or really gives a shit about except the people on the right trying to fan the flames. At most, something got kinda screwed up thus causing a tragedy but it was not at all intentional and they are cleaning it up.

Meh I'll wait for polls later in the week, when Romney's jeep ad has had time to work its magic.

I think these polls are reflecting the true magic of those ads.

 

[ido]

Perfect news to put me to sleep.

I really wished I had done more than lurked here forever. LESS THAN A WEEK BITCH.

 

[Incognito]

Do you still think Obama's going to lose Ohio? If so, why?

personally speaking, i'm inclined to agree with this analysis from a romney official.

Gallup’s numbers are for the nation as a whole. But Romney campaign officials believe the same trends are present in Ohio, the most important swing state in the election.

“The Gallup numbers nationally confirm what we think is happening here in Ohio,” says one Romney official. “It’s two things. One, their margin of victory in early voting is greatly diminished — drastically diminished. And two, they are having a very difficult time generating enthusiasm among young people.”

 

[pigeon]

Any particular reason why more people here seem prefer Silver over Wang? Silver's model seems more... intricate, at least.

But Wang with that confidence lol.

Silver's has more mainstream cred, which makes it easier to use in an argument, and he's less confident, which is safer. Basically he's the mass media version of Wang.

I actually like Wang's assumptions more -- I don't really know that I believe in national trendlines, although I assume Silver has a regression that says they're real, and I like that Wang's model is fundamentally very simple. But if I kept saying "well, Obama still has a 90% chance to win" then there wouldn't be anything to talk about.

 

[Link]

It is at the point where it is getting to be weird. Fox News is going bezerk over Benghazi and no one else is even talking about it except mentioning McCain shaking his fist at the cloud over Benghazi. They are soooo trying to manufacture a scandal and they've managed to create another Fast & Furious . . . a scandal no one quite fully understands or really gives a shit about except the people on the right trying to fan the flames. At most, something got kinda screwed up thus causing a tragedy but it was not at all intentional and they are cleaning it up.

It's especially petty when there's an actual crisis going on right now that everyone else is covering nonstop. But I can't say I'm surprised.

 

[Aaron Strife]

personally speaking, i'm inclined to agree with this analysis from a romney official.

Sounds like bluster to me.

"The numbers look good in Ohio!"

"What are the numbers?"

"Well they look pretty good."

 

[Angry Grimace]

I'm sure Romney does.

Neither Romney himself nor his closest advisors are stupid. My guess is that they know what the actual polls look like.

 

[smurfx]

for any young turks fans here cenk said they will be doing election night coverage. guess i'll be sticking with them election night.

 

[AniHawk]

Sounds like bluster to me.

"The numbers look good in Ohio!"

"What are the numbers?"

"Well they look pretty good."

i've always been partial to 97 and 11

 

[Marvie_3]

O 50 R 45 Quinnipiac

Nice.

 

[metalslimer]

for any young turks fans here cenk said they will be doing election night coverage. guess i'll be sticking with them election night.

Ew...

 

[Officerrob]

O 50 R 45 Quinnipiac

I think this explains Romney expanding into Pennsylvania and other states. Ohio isn't moving for him so he is being forced to look elsewhere

 

[PhoenixDark]

for any young turks fans here cenk said they will be doing election night coverage. guess i'll be sticking with them election night.

no thanks, dude is an idiot. And I hate clicking on seemingly interesting youtube videos only to realize it's actually a Young Turk video

 

[TiVo]

Jesus Christ, Fox News is still obsessing over Benghazi? Give it up, guys.

Hannity is now saying there was a do not engage/stand down order given from the top to military who was an hour away while listening to cries for help.

 

[smurfx]

no thanks, dude is an idiot. And I hate clicking on seemingly interesting youtube videos only to realize it's actually a Young Turk video

okay give me a few reasons why you believe that.

 

[kingkitty]

Cent always struck me as a guy who probably loves to talk a lot but has bad breath. Dick Morris too, especially Dick Morris. I can smell his breath from the youtube videos. His sweaty, conservative breath.

 

[PhoenixDark]

okay give me a few reasons why you believe that.

He doesn't seem to care or understand how government works. I'm no Obama fan/slappy but let's be real, his hands are often tied by congress. Cenk seems to think Obama can do whatever the fuck he wants, so any compromise becomes a betrayal of liberalism.

Plus he's not funny, at all

He's almost as insufferable as Olbermann

 

[Doc Holliday]

Oh man, morning joe will amazing if Nate silver predicts this thing like he did in 2008

 

[speculawyer]

no thanks, dude is an idiot. And I hate clicking on seemingly interesting youtube videos only to realize it's actually a Young Turk video

Wrong. Cenk's got a great perspective you are not going to get from elsewhere. Where else can you get the perspective of a Turkish former-Republican former-Muslim atheist libertarianish-leftist?