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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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K

Keio

For a Finer World
Doc Holliday said:
I guess this will the be the GOP talking point till the election

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/24/us/libya-benghazi-e-mails/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Click to expand...
I think many groups claim responsibility for acts they did not commit. It's a bizarre form of PR. I would think they were looking into this from the get go as well, but without confirmation it would be as big a shitstorm or bigger if they had wrongly said that it was a terrorist group who organized it. "Obama trying to lie that it was terrorists when the incompetents just let a mob raze the consulate!"
 
T

Trurl

Banned
RustyNails said:
3rd Debate - Horses and Bayonets
New economic plan unveiled by White House
GOP senate candidate - Rape babies are the will of God
Dolan Trump about to reveal october surprise at 12PM - Michelle and Barack filed for divorce in 2000
Click to expand...

If true, could the near divorce help Obama by humanizing him a bit?
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
coldfoot said:
Got 91% on that finnish poll. Although AGW is real, we don't need to lead the world on limiting our emissions when China/India don't care and gas prices are already taking care of it anyway.
Click to expand...

Actually, China seems to be doing a bit more than we are to combat AGW in certain sectors.

http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/resources/res_pdfs/csd-19/Background-paper3-transport.pdf

China seems to be modeling their fuel standards based on the EU standards.

http://www.chinafaqs.org/library/ch...llutant-emissions-standards-coal-power-plants

(not sure how credible the last site is...)

However, overall, yes, China is the world's biggest emitter of GHG, and while the new stricter standards will help some, there are still other areas that are fairly unregulated (See: Incinerators) which need to be patched up.
 
S

Shadow Hog

Member
On the radio this morning, they announced that Mitt Romney won the election!

...The election held by buying bobbleheads of either Romney or Obama at baseball games, that is! Oddly enough, I can't find the article anywhere else on the Internet - including the website for the radio station I was listening to - but supposedly it accurately predicted the last two presidential elections! I know, what a record.

On the other hand, the election between Barrk Obama and Mitt'ns Romney is still going strong.
 
G

gcubed

Member
electricpirate said:
Nationally dead on, but they flail around like crazy in state by state polling, You can check RCP,

Here's another example, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html

8 points off in Nevada? Their polling isn't just wrong, it's consistently wrong in one direction.



not sure if I made it clear, nationally they were GREAT, but state by state? at least 2 points towards mcCain in every single swing state, in many states closer to 4-5, and few more even worse.

Nationally their results seem good, but in states, it's Zogby level bad, with a dash of republican bias.

EDIT: Surprisingly, ARG looks pretty good in all these, what's the complain on ARG again?
Click to expand...

No, I understood what you said. I remember many stories about how they were not very good leading up to election day on their national tracker but swung back in consensus before it. So while their number on election day was good the value of their daily tracking was diminished
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Romney never surpassed Obama in % chance of winning and barely ever crossed over the 40% mark of chances of winning

Romney's peak was after the 1st debate.

+Romney never surpassed Obama in the electoral college vote count predictions
 
M

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
cartoon_soldier said:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-game-that-could-put-him-over-the-top/264031/

ballotscast.jpg


ballotsreqs.jpg


Interesting article and statistics on the GOTV and early voting.
Click to expand...

This is kind of a useless measurement, isn't it? What are the odds that all the exact same precincts in all the swing states go the same way they did 4 years ago, especially in states like North Carolina? Hell, a lot of these precincts probably don't even have the same borders and demographics that they did in 2008.


EDIT: Ah, so it's only Ohio that it's based on precincts? I guess that's not as bad as I thought.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
gcubed said:
No, I understood what you said. I remember many stories about how they were not very good leading up to election day on their national tracker but swung back in consensus before it. So while their number on election day was good the value of their daily tracking was diminished
Click to expand...

I recall this complaint about Ras as well
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Manmademan said:
I recall this complaint about Ras as well
Click to expand...

There was some blatant stuff going on near the end. For instance IBD/TIPP released their election day number as O+2 but then went back and re-released it using some new likely voter model and it just so happened to be exactly what the polling average was. Some of the final polls to come out in Florida and Ohio showed McCain leads of +1.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-game-that-could-put-him-over-the-top/264031/

ballotscast.jpg


ballotsreqs.jpg


Interesting article and statistics on the GOTV and early voting.
Click to expand...

Republicans are closing the gap on the ground...

ohh wait, it's gotten larger.

The only one on there that's a bit worrying is the Increase in R absentees requests in OH, but I would think pushing absentees seems like a bad strategy, as only 4/5 absentee requests actually get recorded as votes, (source, http://www.democracy.uci.edu/files/...ath HAVA Wrought_Irvine - Charles Stewart.pdf)

Similarly, why would OFA seem to up the push for absentee requests in FL, when they have abysmal response rates, why not push for strait early voting where you can bank that vote?

Though I will say, that ground game has really improved in FL.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
The fact that US fuel standards are lagging so much behind is one of the most mindbogglingly blatant signs of big corporation screwing the people. Yet the people will fight big government when it tries to save them some dollars, trips to the gas station, give them cleaner air and save jobs. Fuck the police? Fuck politics? No, fuck the people.

*mic drop*
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Obama’s Ground Game Makes Iowa Tough Turf For Romney
“Two-to-one, people who say they have already voted are Barack Obama supporters,” Selzer told TPM. “The majority of people who plan to vote early are Barack Obama supporters. The majority of people who plan to vote on election day, Romney supporters. I think that’s what’s gets tricky — you have to have a huge margin on election day to offset the Democrats.”

Early voting in Iowa began on Sept. 27, and already nearly 520,000 people requested early ballots, according to elections officials. Of those, some 347,000 had filled out and returned them as of Oct. 22.
Click to expand...
“The reason Obama became stronger is two things — first of all there are economic signals that things are getting better, and that became a little hard to ignore … and I think Obama has in place a stronger ground game, and that is starting to pick up,” Selzer said. “So all of the people that he had in place from four years ago, a lot of that infrastructure is still there. Romney sat out Iowa, really, and has chosen to have less presence in terms of a ground game … and in Iowa, with so much early voting, that ground game is really critical.”
Click to expand...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/obama-ground-game-iowa.php?ref=fpa
 
CHEEZMO™

CHEEZMO™

Obsidian fan
RustyNails said:
3rd Debate - Horses and Bayonets
New economic plan unveiled by White House
GOP senate candidate - Rape babies are the will of God
Dolan Trump about to reveal october surprise at 12PM - Michelle and Barack filed for divorce in 2000
Click to expand...

I see. Thanks.

AlteredBeast said:
The good thing is we have a sudden drop in furry and MLP avatars in PoliGAF (heretofore named Polligaf until 11/7).
Click to expand...

You should look into blocking images. It's not hard and you wouldn't have to whine about it all the time.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
gcubed said:
No, I understood what you said. I remember many stories about how they were not very good leading up to election day on their national tracker but swung back in consensus before it. So while their number on election day was good the value of their daily tracking was diminished
Click to expand...

ahh, I misunderstood.

Kinda wierd how that works out isn't it. Does RAS publish their current weightings, or do they keep it secret?
 
V

Veitsev

Member
MetatronM said:
This is kind of a useless measurement, isn't it? What are the odds that all the exact same precincts in all the swing states go the same way they did 4 years ago, especially in states like North Carolina? Hell, a lot of these precincts probably don't even have the same borders and demographics that they did in 2008.


EDIT: Ah, so it's only Ohio that it's based on precincts? I guess that's not as bad as I thought.
Click to expand...

What it tells us is that the claims of Democratic voter enthusiasm being significantly down this year, at least in those swing states, may not be entirely as predicted.
 
G

gcubed

Member
electricpirate said:
Republicans are closing the gap on the ground...

ohh wait, it's gotten larger.

The only one on there that's a bit worrying is the Increase in R absentees requests in OH, but I would think pushing absentees seems like a bad strategy, as only 4/5 absentee requests actually get recorded as votes, (source, http://www.democracy.uci.edu/files/...ath HAVA Wrought_Irvine - Charles Stewart.pdf)

Similarly, why would OFA seem to up the push for absentee requests in FL, when they have abysmal response rates, why not push for strait early voting where you can bank that vote?

Though I will say, that ground game has really improved in FL.
Click to expand...

Early voting was reduced in FL this year so I guess they are trying to get whoever they can.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
Rocket Scientist said:
Can't read the article right now, but doesn't the part about Ohioans not registering by party make that part of the numbers useless? Perhaps they have a good reason to believe it's a good indicator, but...
Click to expand...

Yea, Ohio is a bit of a best guess, and we don't know how individual precincts are polling. Maybe all of Obama's have come from districts that are 90% dem, and Romney's from swing districts that narrowly went for McCain, or Vice Versa. It's a really gross measurement in Ohio, so I shouldn't get too worried/enthused either way.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
electricpirate said:
Similarly, why would OFA seem to up the push for absentee requests in FL, when they have abysmal response rates, why not push for strait early voting where you can bank that vote?
Click to expand...

you sorta answered your own question. try and turn out the low propensity voters during early vote since you know your partisans will turn out without much nudging.

edit: it appears i misread your question! disregard...
 
K

Keio

For a Finer World
SmokeMaxX said:
Intrade currently at 56.5. No chance at sub-$6 by the time my wire transfers :(
C'mon- Some Romney supporter please start some chaos.
Click to expand...

I went in 60$ more at 5.55, now averaging 6.00$ with 150$ in. Confident Obama has this and will pay for a couple of bottles of Champagne for election night.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
MORNING MINDMELD: As an antidote to the (perhaps) irrational Republican exuberance that seems to have seized D.C., we pause for the following public-service announcement. To be President, you have to win states, not debates. And Mitt Romney has a problem. Despite a great debate and what The Wall Street Journal’s Neil King Jr. on Sunday called a polling “surge,” Romney has not put away a single one of the must-have states. President Obama remains the favorite because he only needs to win a couple of the toss-ups. Mitt needs to win most of them. A cold shower for the GOP: Most polling shows Romney trailing in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa – by MORE than Obama trails in North Carolina. Glenn Thrush and Jonathan Martin reminded of us of the 2008 primary analogy: Whatever else Hillary Clinton had, Barack Obama had the math. And math, not momentum, gets you the big house, the bulletproof car, the cool plane. We now resume our regularly scheduled Playbook.
Click to expand...

www.politico.com/playbook/

"Sprechen sie sassy?"
tumblr_lxm8ybotgk1qi89zfo1_500.png
 
B

Byakuya769

Member
No cold shower! Keep that under wraps. I want my warm tear bath on the evening of Nov. 6th.

They are convinced that they've got this now.
 
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