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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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N

NullPointer

Member
Black Republican said:
1000x500px-LL-f90802aa_whoa.gif
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I bet they mean the digits to the right of the decimal point.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Dax01 said:
Can someone re-post here what Josh put on TPM's website about his analysis of the polls? I'm having trouble accessing it.
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tpm said:
As come inside a week of the election, what are the polls telling us?

With so many curveballs coming at is in the form of late breaking stories, natural disasters and odd ball polls, it's tempting to say it's all topsy turvy. But the real news from the polls is more one of basic stability and if anything a slow movement in Obama's direction in critical states.

The national polls remain basically a wash. The PollTracker average has it at literally dead even at the moment -- 47.9% to 47.9%. But several of the tracking polls temporarily stopped tracking the race during the storm. But it's been more or less dead even for a good three weeks.

The state polls look pretty much the same too. For all the hyper-focus on Ohio, it too has been fairly stable since Romney's big move after the first debate (it actually seemed to begin just before the first debate but we'll discuss that another time), with Obama making some very slight headway over the last week or so. You can see the trend chart here.

There have been a lot of headfakes and questions about this state or that. But the map looks pretty much the same as it did last week and frankly six weeks ago, though the margins in many states are a good deal tighter.

So there's been a lot of talk about Wisconsin coming back into contention by the release of the premier in-state poll today showing an 8 point Obama margin seems to put that idea to rest. The PollTracker Average currently shows the state Obama +3.3.

One of the quick and dirty ways of looking at the numbers that I use is to look at the states on the 2012 Presidential dashboard which you can see here on the lower right. Unlike the electoral map this shows the top swing states and colors them red or blue depending on which candidate is ahead, even if it's the most trivial of margins. Even like .1% for instance, just who has any numerical margin in the average. A week or so ago I think there were six states in red albeit very narrowly. Now we're back to one -- New Hampshire.

Put it all together and you get the same basic conclusion. If the election were held today and the consensus of the polls were basically right, Obama would be the strong odds on favorite to win. Six more days until we find out for sure.
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Basically, status quo, Obama victory.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Crisco said:
I'm not going to let myself worry about this. After 2000 and 2004, if the Democrats aren't on top of this shit (like they were in 2008), then they only have themselves to blame. From what I've heard, Obama literally has a army of lawyers in every battleground state ready to pounce on shit like this.
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yeah, after 2008 and how prepared Obama was with voting issues i ignore the sketchiness
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
See, GAF. You were all like, "Why isn't Team Romney talking about how they are leading in (swing state)?"

Now you have it.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
wow...so both PPP and Q got Obama by 5 in Ohio? The polling aggregate for Ohio is about to rise to like nearly +3 now.

How the fuck is he going to lose the election with only 5 days left to go? Please, someone tell me how?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Amir0x said:
wow...so both PPP and Q got Obama by 5 in Ohio? The polling aggregate for Ohio is about to rise to like nearly +3 now.

How the fuck is he going to lose the election with only 5 days left to go? Please, someone tell me how?
Click to expand...

He's gonna call Chris Christie a honkie.
 
P

Paches

Member
Amir0x said:
wow...so both PPP and Q got Obama by 5 in Ohio? The polling aggregate for Ohio is about to rise to like nearly +3 now.

How the fuck is he going to lose the election with only 5 days left to go? Please, someone tell me how?
Click to expand...

Sandy blew up all the homes of the democrats in Ohio and they won't have time to vote.

Or something.
 
K

Kinvara

Member
Amir0x said:
wow...so both PPP and Q got Obama by 5 in Ohio? The polling aggregate for Ohio is about to rise to like nearly +3 now.

How the fuck is he going to lose the election with only 5 days left to go? Please, someone tell me how?
Click to expand...

Donald Trump unleashes his November surprise.
 
D

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Amir0x said:
wow...so both PPP and Q got Obama by 5 in Ohio? The polling aggregate for Ohio is about to rise to like nearly +3 now.

How the fuck is he going to lose the election with only 5 days left to go? Please, someone tell me how?
Click to expand...

Momentum!! Picture a tsunami, it goes unnoticed under the surface until it's too late. Momentum is gonna crash on you!!
 
M

markatisu

Member
Romney's camp is so transparent, they have lost OH and the rest of the Midwest and so they are moving into PA so their people do not lose all hope.

Maybe its time to go back over to Free Republic and see what is going on in that wasteland
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
ido said:
They kinda knew what was up in 08, imo.

This year they are in full-on fantasyland.
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THIS. This this this!

2008 was fun. They knew it was coming, and took it pretty calmly, with a healthy dose of melancholy.

This year? I'm predicting fireworks. We're going to see more unabashedly salty personalities performing for us on Fox News Election Night. It will be, for Democrats, as "must-see" as must-see TV can get. Chicken soup for the liberal's soul. Something that one smiles and laughs about remembering when they're feeling down and sad on rainy days. This has the potential to be the entertainment gift that keeps on giving. :)
 
E

el retorno

Member
Romney now supports FEMA according to a statement he just issued saying he'll make sure it has the funding it needs. Can someone call him out on this?
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
magic
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NullPointer said:
ioPARxMREe0Bd.gif
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pigeon said:
He's gonna call Chris Christie a honkie.
Click to expand...
Paches-EJ- said:
Sandy blew up all the homes of the democrats in Ohio and they won't have time to vote.

Or something.
Click to expand...
Kinvara said:
Donald Trump unleashes his November surprise.
Click to expand...
Doc Holliday said:
Momentum!! Picture a tsunami, it goes unnoticed under the surface until it's too late. Momentum is gonna crash on you!!
Click to expand...

All interesting theories but I have to go with pigeon's answer.

he will call Chris Christie a honkie
 
S

saelz8

Member
@davidshepardson: Hearing new Michigan poll will be out today around 6 p.m. expected to show Obama with a bigger lead than today's @detnews poll.
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
Are we going to have a separate thread for compiling and sharing meltdowns, or will we just roll it into the next incarnation of PoliGAF?

PoliGAF 2013 |OT| Year 1 of 1000 Years of Liberal Darkness
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
el retorno de los sapos said:
New site to troll
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Politico said:
The Tea Party News Network, self-described as "the only trusted news source and the antidote to mainstream media bias," is already live but will announce its launch tomorrow morning, with plans to start live video on election day. TPNN claims to have a "war room of 40-plus volunteers" who will operate out of the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, and has established partnerships with the Talk Radio Network and radio host Rusty Humphries, who will be co-anchoring the election night coverage.
Click to expand...

Let me guess...an Adelson resort?

EDIT: Yes.
 
F

FuturusX

Member
ido said:
They kinda knew what was up in 08, imo.

This year they are in full-on fantasyland.
Click to expand...

I think they were for the most part in varying degrees of shock...Obama felt like a Tsunami undetected, washing over everything. He came from nowhere (seemingly)... to wash away all that lay before him. They were unprepared. The very idea of Obama as President was not something they could comprehend.

By the time it happened, they had lost everything...

Besides, there was so much hopium in the air...could we even see or smell anything else. They were drowned out by the chorus of constant cheering...one never-ending concert of enthusiasm. Hope.

And then he took office. And it became real. They have had to live with him day in day out. In the highest political office in he land. Sullying the most sacred of political stations with his "dirty" hands...

And so...

They have resolved themselves to be ready. To spend each day preparing the attacks, sharpening the weapons, to exact revenge. This one's personal. It means more now.

They want him to fail. Make no mistake. They desire not only for his Presidency to be over, but to inflict a blow to a sworn enemy. They want the White House as much as they want Obama to feel the pain of defeat. He must be vanquished.

Four years is a long time to wait. The stakes are higher now. Another loss to "him"...is not imaginable.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Cyan said:
The honkie tape!
Click to expand...

Kinvara said:
Now it's perfect.
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CNN just said Christie and Obama are going to have their press conference shortly. Everyone should watch it live so we can see him call Christie a honkie.

Will be amazing times. Fox News will be aghast 24/7.

saelz8 said:
@davidshepardson: Hearing new Michigan poll will be out today around 6 p.m. expected to show Obama with a bigger lead than today's @detnews poll.
Click to expand...

Battleground state. BELIEVE.
 
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