• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

Status
Not open for further replies.
Just saw this on twitter all credit goes to @garyyounge


"FOX NEWS EXCLUSIVE: Donald Trump demands to see the college transcripts of Kenyan-born New Jersey governor Chris Christie.
 

Chichikov

Member
why would it even matter who is covering the emergency? insurance is insurance
Because socialism.

Listen, I grew up in a socialist country and I have seen what that does to people. There is no hope, no freedom, no pride in achievement. The nation became poorer and poorer.
 
RCP now showing the general election as a TIE.

If it moves to Obama's favor on RCP by this weekend, I wonder if we're going to see conservatives freak out on the web.
 
In all seriousness, if Romney does in fact lose, the GOP will blame it on his inconsistent message.

Nonsense. All the homosexuals out there were too concentrated in the Northeast, causing a massive hurricane. That pastor guy explained it pretty well. It's just that it has the opposite effect on politics than what was expected.

Sources on the grapevine tell me that Obama will plan to move all gays to the midwest to trigger natural disasters there and turn those states from red to swing.

;)
 
Nonsense. All the homosexuals out there were too concentrated in the Northeast, causing a massive hurricane. That pastor guy explained it pretty well. It's just that it has the opposite effect on politics than what was expected.

Sources on the grapevine tell me that Obama will plan to move all gays to the midwest to trigger natural disasters there and turn those states from red to swing.

;)

If the debates taught us anything, Republicans are never the ones to lick their wounds and regroup. They will blame blame blame.
 
Sam Wang is working to bring his site back up . .
Sam Wang said:
Oh noes - we're down! We're working on restoring access. In the meantime, here is the Google-cached site.

In the meantime, here is a quick update of the race. Sorry for the minimal nature. It's kind of like where we started back in 2004!

Above is a screenshot of the Princeton Election Consortium's meta-analysis of state polls. The numbers are a high resolution "snapshot" of state polls as viewed through the Electoral College. There are no adjustments and no corrections to polls - just some math to optimally extract win probabilities and all 2.3 quadrillion possibilities.

The "Meta-margin" shows that state polls would have to swing toward Mitt Romney by 2.6% to tie the race. This Meta-Margin differs by about 3.0% from national polls. I regard this as the big current mystery. While we bring PEC back online, I am doing analysis to understand the difference. Swing-state polls were dead-on in 2004 and 2008, suggesting either national-poll methods or non-swing state opinion as the culprits.

Finally: here is the state of the Senate race. Rick in Miami has helpfully calculated some time series. As has been the case for several months, Democrats/Independents will control 53-54 seats - neutral or a gain of one seat. Rick has added Pennsylvania and Nebraska, whose races have gotten close.
 
It will be interesting to hear the GOP blame the election on Sandy.

Voter Fraud
Liberal Poll Bias demoralizing GOP
Sandy

What else is coming?

i wonder how the networks
CNN/Fox
would respond to an Obama 332-347 win?


-"Was Obama campaign too aggressive?"
-"Was america ready for a Mormon president?"
- "our polls showed Romney was the weakest gop nominee since..."
- "7.8% save the president?"
-"Why did Obama get less electoral votes than before"?
-"Do minorities hate Romney?"
-"Are women too emotional to vote?"
same as before, add christie and sandy
 

Stridone

Banned
They believe polls sample Dems too much and that reality is there are more repubs than dems.

Problem is a lot of GOP folk now consider themselves "independent" even though they toe GOP party line in voting (mostly).

This can be seen by Obama's poor independent performance right now. It's just GOPers becoming unaffiliated.

Are there hard numbers to support this?

Anyone? This is the only thing worrying me.
 
National polls:

Obama leads in:
IBD
Reuters
CBS
RAND
YouGov
NationalJournal
Google
GWU

Romney leads in:
Gallup
Ras
PPP
Newsmax
NPR

Tied:
Pew
ABC
UPI
ARG
PPP/KOS


ROMENTUM!



Anyone? This is the only thing worrying me.

What else would explain it? there have been studies showing most independents are actually pretty party-line.

Almost all polling shows less Repubs and more Indies. Is it much of a stretch to believes a bunch of people left?
 

WaltJay

Member
First Justice Roberts, then Colin Powell (again), and now Chris Christie. The trio of backstabbing RINOs is complete!

Bad news for Obama, etc.
 
Has gallup even been updating?

No, but it went to the 28th so I included everything that had at least the 25th in there.

Gallup and one PPP no longer update nor does IBD. Should return soon though.


Ras stopped state polling as its state polling call center is in New Jersey. national is somewhere else so it keeps going.
 
Eric Bolling just admitted that he never bought Federal flood insurance because he doesn't believe the government should be covering that (Private insurance doesn't cover homes by the coast there). His house on Long Beach Island is destroyed. What an idiot..

I'd almost feel sorry for him if he wasn't rich and a total douchebag.
 

Stridone

Banned
What else would explain it? there have been studies showing most independents are actually pretty party-line.

Almost all polling shows less Repubs and more Indies. Is it much of a stretch to believes a bunch of people left?

Hmm, seems hard to believe that such a large group of people would actively do this all of a sudden, especially after the 2010 House elections.
 

hym

Banned
mormonism

I don't think the GOP can get away with that especially now that even the most obnoxious hardcore Christians are supporting him combined with the fact that no Democrats attacked Romney on his faith, well maybe except Chris Matthews but he had a beef with the LDS Church like forever.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Sandy-response.jpg

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-president-obama-on-hurricane-sandy-response/

Was Sandy the October Surprise? His rating on this is unbelievably high.
 
Hmm, seems hard to believe that such a large group of people would actively do this all of a sudden, especially after the 2010 House elections.

Why? A bunch of tea party people left as well as people who were not crazy left seeing all the crazies.

Makes sense.

if you look at the polls that include questions sort of like "if you were one party which would it be" you see a normal expectation.

Obama also leads in Politico (+1)

That's the GWU poll. I put it in.
 

Puddles

Banned
they believe the polls are wildly oversampling Democrats or something

This is really weird to me, because, assuming your polling methodology is sound, one individual poll may very well have a sampling error (and indeed is expected to), but over a large number of polls, the sample distribution approaches Normal. That is to say: polling biases are largely eliminated by running a large number of independent random samples, assuming the methodology is sound (i.e. not excluding cellphone-only voters).
 
Hmm, seems hard to believe that such a large group of people would actively do this all of a sudden, especially after the 2010 House elections.

In general, moderate Republicans of the Jon Huntsman have been leaving the party in droves.

They'll still vote Republican for now, but the process of a switch Charlie Crist style has started.

They are like the neocons were in the '60s after they got kicked out of the Democratic Party.
 
It will be interesting to hear the GOP blame the election on Sandy.

Voter Fraud
Liberal Poll Bias demoralizing GOP
Sandy

What else is coming?
dead people voting
Mexicans voting
dogs voting
People didn't hear enough about Benghazigate
People didn't hear enough about F&F
Romney is a Mormon
Obama thug rigged BLS unemployment numbers
Whites voting for obama so they don't feel racist
Romney wasn't a real conservative
Obama bought the election with Obamaphones and Sandy aid
The plane load of votes lost in Afghanistan
Scary new black panthers at intimidating people
 

Brinbe

Member
It was this property owner (a Marina I think?) whose lot was destroyed and had no insurance. She was obviously clearly distraught, but met with Obama/and the FEMA Chief and felt comforted by them telling her that recovery help was quickly on the way.

It was simply an affirmation that his presence there helped and was appreciated by those who are hurting at the moment.
 

pigeon

Banned
Anyone? This is the only thing worrying me.

There are hard numbers on Gallup's site showing that GOP party ID has dropped and independent ID has risen by similar amounts; meanwhile independents have become more conservative on most issues. The implication is there for sure.

Remember that the Tea Party is officially independent of the GOP.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom