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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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3rdman

Member
What happened to Chuck Todd? I remember really liking him in '08.

He was granted saint hood when (during the 2008 Primaries) he dared to point out the math wasn't in Hillary's favor and Obama was going to get the nomination.

That is pretty much it...he's been as bad (and sometime worse) as any other pundit out there.
 

syllogism

Member
I can't even begin to imagine how insufferable media, right wing sites AND poligaf will be in 2016 if the unlikely scenario occurs and all the polls are in fact overestimating democratic turnout.
 
siren_animated.gif


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdGhrcnotRXU3SzZUcERPMW1JSWY5Q3c#gid=0

In Virginia in comparison to 2008, Obama down 13% in early voting. Romney down just 1.1%.

Incognito, what does your advanced 'algorithm' show for the results on Tuesday? I haven't read any more posts about it.

Those will be signed, sealed and delivered on Monday. Unlike Silver and Wang, I'd rather focus on my algorithm making sure it accurately predicts the results rather than using it as a springboard for national fame or twitter spats.
 

norinrad

Member

WaltJay

Member
Mitt Romney responds to FEMA question
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/01/mitt-romney-responds-to-fema-question/

“I believe that FEMA plays a key role in working with states and localities to prepare for and respond to natural disasters,” Romney said. “As president, I will ensure FEMA has the funding it needs to fulfill its mission, while directing maximum resources to the first responders who work tirelessly to help those in need, because states and localities are in the best position to get aid to the individuals and communities affected by natural disasters.”

In a primary debate last year, Romney agreed that federal disaster response could be curtailed to save federal dollars, with more responsibility given to states and the private sector. Campaign aides have told reporters that the Republican candidate would not eliminate FEMA.

A shocking about-face from a man that usually sticks to his principles and core beliefs in all manners of life and politics.
 

Keio

For a Finer World
That FEMA-reply is the best non-reply I've seen since... the debates. He's basically saying that he will fund FEMA as he sees appropriate while directing MAXIMUM RESOURCES to states. I guess the message is pretty clear but no one calls him out on it. Again.
 

Tim-E

Member
No it won't . They'll just bitch about dems not taking the House of Representatives

You're probably right. PoliGAF spent much of the Obama administration complaining that it wasn't liberal enough, so it'll most likely continue.

Reading that Green Party thread in the OT is a headache. Can we make a PragmaticPoliGAF where we acknowledge that it's okay that we don't live in a liberal utopia?


They're definitely pushing that "Sandy" bump.

At this point the election is so close it is even possible to call it a bump when there's not enough time for the bump to recede?
 

Protein

Banned
I'm in Ohio and I haven't been polled.
I'm voting for Romney.


siren_animated.gif


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdGhrcnotRXU3SzZUcERPMW1JSWY5Q3c#gid=0

In Virginia in comparison to 2008, Obama down 13% in early voting. Romney down just 1.1%.



Those will be signed, sealed and delivered on Monday. Unlike Silver and Wang, I'd rather focus on my algorithm making sure it accurately predicts the results rather than using it as a springboard for national fame or twitter spats.


Having a panic-induced seizure as we speak.
 

pigeon

Banned
No, they're "different" in an unspecified way. Heaps of credibility from halperin.

Yeah, but that way is unskewed:

politico said:
The pollster [working for Romney, Neil Newhouse] complained broadly about each day bringing another unfavorable public survey. Romney’s campaign and others in the GOP believe the samples in the media polls show a partisan breakdown that is overly favorable to Democrats and is therefore misrepresenting the electorate. Most pollsters don’t weight by party, but rather attempt to gauge partisan identification along with other preferences. The new Quinnipiac Ohio poll was made up by 37% of Democrats, 30% independents and 29% Republicans. That’s comparable to what exit polls showed as the composition of the Ohio electorate in 2008.

Literally, this is Dean Chambers's argument, and now it's the official Romney argument.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/mitt-pollster-q-poll-crap-147912.html?hp=r2

you've been all over the map.

He's expanding it!
 

Tim-E

Member
This is the single most comforting thing I've read about the campaign in days. Romney is losing, they know they're losing, and now their desperation is expanding to comical proportions. Flail more, Mitt. Dance for me.

Yep. This is early-October McCain flailing territory.
 

Kusagari

Member
Really, though, Romney must be panicking. The final days of every swing state poll is breaking in favor of Obama, except for Colorado.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Yep. This is early-October McCain failing territory.

No way, according to Fox News reputable sources like Newt Gingrich, Karl Rove, etc, etc, etc

Romney is winning by at least 3%. He is looking like a 300+ EV win.

No joke, this is literally what they said as of last night. How can a group of people be so deluded?
 

gcubed

Member
No way, according to Fox News reputable sources like Newt Gingrich, Karl Rove, etc, etc, etc

Romney is winning by at least 3%. He is looking like a 300+ EV win.

No joke, this is literally what they said as of last night. How can a group of people be so deluded?

it's their job
 

Tim-E

Member
No way, according to Fox News reputable sources like Newt Gingrich, Karl Rove, etc, etc, etc

Romney is winning by at least 3%. He is looking like a 300+ EV win.

No joke, this is literally what they said as of last night. How can a group of people be so deluded?

I think they probably know this thing's done, but they're the cheerleaders of the party so they don't want to be the ones to say it out loud.
 

Clevinger

Member
No way, according to Fox News reputable sources like Newt Gingrich, Karl Rove, etc, etc, etc

Romney is winning by at least 3%. He is looking like a 300+ EV win.

No joke, this is literally what they said as of last night. How can a group of people be so deluded?

They're not deluded. They're deluding others.
 

daedalius

Member
I assume this was posted

Private employers added 158,000 jobs in the month, ADP (ADP, Fortune 500) said, beating economists' forecasts of 143,000.

Diablos friend just linked it to me; I'm still trying to talk him down off the cliff.
 

Tim-E

Member
A lot of Wisconsin stops.

Obama is leading on-average in all of those states in recent polling except Florida. At this point they simply just need to lock in what's safe in order to coast past 270. He needs to give up on North Carolina and just let the ground game in Florida do it's work; holding onto the midwest is literally all he needs to do to prevent Romney from winning.
 

pigeon

Banned
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/statuses/263994693266833409



Shockingly missing from this: MN, PA, and MI. Obama must have already conceded those states. :(

Wonder why he's only visiting NV once, though. A sign of confidence, I suppose.

1 visit: NV, VA, FL, NH
2 visits: CO, IA
3 visits: WI
4 visits: OH

Definitely the takeaway here is that Obama doesn't think it's worth his time to fight in NC. Which doesn't actually mean he doesn't think he can win it, just that he wants to cover his bases.

He's pretty much hitting the swing states in order of importance/swinginess -- the one visit states either aren't important, or aren't that close. (Although apparently he doesn't really think he's going to win Florida.) Wisconsin and Ohio are a winning coalition, so obviously he should spend as much time there as possible.

This is a pretty pragmatic schedule -- win the election first, worry about bonus states later.
 

Brinbe

Member
Mitt looking really petty

And I find it pretty awesome that Bams is making his final stop in Iowa, bring it full circle to where it all began. =)
 
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