PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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At this point, the worst that Fox News is going to bring out is if Obama gets less than 50% of the vote. Then we start to have to deal with the 'mandate' crap again, which is much less funny now that the GOP doesn't have a complete closetcase in Kel Melhman at the helm.
 
Clevinger said:
Not really. He's not very charismatic, he's not a good speaker, and now he's going to be a loser. The big boys, Christie, Bush, Rubio, will crush him if he tries to run for pres. Being VP is this guy's only hope of having a chance nationally. He'd be the Pawlenty of 2016.
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Yeah, he didn't fuck up, he just exposed himself as a weak, mildly annoying also ran with intellectually shallow but somehow beloved ideas.
 
Nate comparing the chances of an O victory to that of an NFL team winning by a field goal with 3 minutes left in the game didn't make me feel as good.

I realize he points out that these teams win ~80% of the time but I know I'm never comfortable when my team is in that spot.
 
Heisenberg said:
Nate comparing the chances of an O victory to that of an NFL team winning by a field goal with 3 minutes left in the game didn't make me feel as good.

I realize he points out that these teams win ~80% of the time but I know I'm never comfortable when my team is in that spot.
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With three minutes a touchdown isn't out of the question either. On the other hand, it also brings up the issue of giving the ball back to the other team with enough time to score again.

...and now I've gone and worn out the metaphor.
 
It's worth noting Silver got one state wrong in 2008, but it was one of the closest states. This time there are multiple close states meaning he could be wrong more than a few times on Tuesday. So I wouldn't put his accuracy at 49/50, I'd put it around 1/2 (he got NC right, Indiana wrong) in terms of close states.
 
PhoenixDark said:
It's worth noting Silver got one state wrong in 2008, but it was one of the closest states. This time there are multiple close states meaning he could be wrong more than a few times on Tuesday. So I wouldn't put his accuracy at 49/50, I'd put it around 1/2 (he got NC right, Indiana wrong) in terms of close states.
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which states do you consider could be in that category this year? Virginia, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire. So those would be the impressive run if he got them right
 
PhoenixDark said:
It's worth noting Silver got one state wrong in 2008, but it was one of the closest states. This time there are multiple close states meaning he could be wrong more than a few times on Tuesday. So I wouldn't put his accuracy at 49/50, I'd put it around 1/2 (he got NC right, Indiana wrong) in terms of close states.
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That just means he might get Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida wrong. None of which Obama needs. Although North Carolina is more likely in Romney's camp right now.
 
3 minutes is damn plenty of time for a team to come back and win, especially a FG. :lol

You also have to factor in timeouts left, too, but you're better off with no huddle.
 
PhoenixDark said:
IMO the biggest factor will be that Ryan's Medicare budget didn't hurt Romney. Polls continually show voters trust Obama more on Medicare yet also show the elderly sticking with Romney by large margins.
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Does anyone else think that the elderly are mostly voting with their pocketbooks in this election, even past their general preference for GOP candidates and their baseline racism? I can't imagine that they are happy with near sub-zero interest rates and quantitative easing by the Fed. Things like increasing taxation on dividends can't also be very popular with that group.
 
+1 Bams from me in Early Voting here in NC finally now that I'm back in town for good. Have a few days off next week-might stop in and help the OFA team out this weekend and early next week.
 
If you look at Indiana polls in 2008, you'll notice the complete lack of high quality polls. There was one Indy Star/Selzer poll and that's pretty much it. Beyond that you had to rely on Research 2000 (ouch), Zogby (ouch) and some ok robo pollsters (one PPP poll, a few surveyusa).
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
3 minutes is damn plenty of time for a team to come back and win, especially a FG. :lol

You also have to factor in timeouts left, too, but you're better off with no huddle.
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If Andy Reid was coaching Romney they would have used the timeouts in the beginning of the half, and now he's throwing up on the field trying to make a comeback
 
Fragamemnon said:
Does anyone else think that the elderly are mostly voting with their pocketbooks in this election, even past their general preference for GOP candidates and their baseline racism? I can't imagine that they are happy with near sub-zero interest rates and quantitative easing by the Fed. Things like increasing taxation on dividends can't also be very popular with that group.
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I can't imagine many think it through anywhere near as much. It's probably mostly "Well, I'm a conservative, so I'm going to vote for the conservative."
 
Early voting in OK for me starts tomorrow. Ready to get out there and throw away my vote!

Voting Romney. Throwing it away because we don't need any more Romney votes, my state's as red as it gets.
 
Sunflower said:
Early voting in OK for me starts tomorrow. Ready to get out there and throw away my vote!

Voting Romney. Throwing it away because we don't need any more Romney votes, my state's as red as it gets.
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If you're throwing it away anyway, why not throw it away for Obama instead?
 
786110 said:
Michelle Obama will be in Charlotte on Monday

So that's something!
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Virginia

Ann Romney was in Chesterfield not too long ago. Chesterfield is a heavily Republican county in Virginia bordering the Dem-leaning Richmond and Petersburg. I wasn't there but a coworker and her family was there and took many videos and pictures. The venue wasn't large at all, and it wasn't exactly packed. It looked like a Church though I'm not entirely sure. I'm not convinced she draws a huge crowd.

Michelle Obama will be here tomorrow practically in Chesterfield, at a University that borders Chesterfield, Colonial Heights and Petersburg, about 15 mins south of Richmond, and they're preparing this to be an event.
 
Don't go deep in the football analogy. His point is that according to his model, Obama has a 79% chance of winning and that football teams that are up by 3 with 3 minutes to go win 79% of the time according to historical statistics. The analogy is no deeper than that.
 
I want to talk turnout and current poll info. Most of the polls are assuming 08' dem intensity and some are predicting even greater turnout. Early vote totals show decreased dem numbers and increased rep numbers. Add to that most polls show Romney leading Ind anywhere from 5 to 20 points. My question is do most here believe 12' turnout will mirror 08's record dem turnout and if so what is this assumption based on?
 
Ras...

Wisconsin which may prove to be the key to the entire presidential contest remains a tie less than a week before Election Day.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds President Obama and Mitt Romney each earning 49% support. Two percent (2%) remain undecided.
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Cooter said:
I want to talk turnout and current poll info. Most of the polls are assuming 08' dem intensity and some are predicting even greater turnout. Early vote totals show decreased dem numbers and increased rep numbers. Add to that most polls show Romney leading Ind anywhere from 5 to 20 points. My question is do most here believe 12' turnout will mirror 08's record dem turnout and if so what is this assumption based on?
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Personally I think turnout will be worse this year for dems. I base that assumption on the fact that most dems I know have become quite lethargic this election year as opposed to last. I don't have real facts, just anecdotes :)
 
Cooter said:
I want to talk turnout and current poll info. Most of the polls are assuming 08' dem intensity and some are predicting even greater turnout. Early vote totals show decreased dem numbers and increased rep numbers. Add to that most polls show Romney leading Ind anywhere from 5 to 20 points. My question is do most here believe 12' turnout will mirror 08's record dem turnout and if so what is this assumption based on?
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It was either Sam Wang or Nate Silver, but they did analysis and said that even if the numbers weren't based on 2008 Romney would still lose.

Here it is. It was Silver, and he talks about turnout and state polls versus national polls.
 
Sunflower said:
Personally I think turnout will be worse this year for dems. I base that assumption on the fact that most dems I know have become quite lethargic this election year as opposed to last. I don't have real facts, just anecdotes :)
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You're in Oklahoma; your anecdotes are worthless when it comes to Dem turnout.
 
Nate had Obama as a 98.9% favorite in '08 for reference.

Anyway, +1 Obama in NC, just sent my ballot in. Voting is so disheartening though. Looking up all the candidates, there's always a nutjob (Republican) and a sane person. Wish there was more of a choice to make. The few Libertarians don't help either. There was one scum candidate that I really would have liked to vote against, but she was running unopposed. Also had a list of conservatives to vote for on her site, in the non-partisan judicial races. -_-

If anyone in a less competitive state would throw a vote Jill Stein's way, it'd be much appreciated.
 
Clevinger said:
It was either Sam Wang or Nate Silver, but they did analysis and said that even if the numbers weren't based on 2008 Romney would still lose.
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Huh? All signs to point an increased rep electorate also. Add Romney's' Ind lead and I dont understand how many here are so sure of a Obama victory.
 
Sunflower said:
Early voting in OK for me starts tomorrow. Ready to get out there and throw away my vote!

Voting Romney. Throwing it away because we don't need any more Romney votes, my state's as red as it gets.
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Isn't Utah redder?

Heisenberg said:
If O is like the Redskins then he will concede a 80 yard TD to R's best receiver to win the game.
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If O is like the Redskins, he'll lose more than half the time. Speaking as somebody in the DC area who has to put up with his news station dedicating a segment of every ten minutes to the 'skins after every win or loss. Stupid football taking up valuable time from actual news.
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
I have to work on Tuesday. :(

Will ask the managers to turn the channel to CNN or something. I bet $20 on Obama with someone from work.
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Same here. :(

Off Monday, work on Tuesday (but finagled myself the earliest shift, meaning I'm out and free at 3Pm), and then I go back at noon on Wednesday. I can still stay up reasonably late, so that's good news.

Monday might be a day for laying around the house, napping on and off.. 'cause I'm not getting much sleep once I awaken on Tuesday morning.
 
I think based on the closeness of the polling, we can expect at least one Obama lean state to not go Obama's way on Tuesday. Probably either Virginia or Colorado. Conversely, it's also possible that one of the Romney leans don't go his way, like Florida. Regardless, Obama still wins. It would still take an unprecedented failure in state polling for Obama to lose.
 
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