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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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T

The Abominable Snowman

Member
Sunflower said:
Personally I think turnout will be worse this year for dems. I base that assumption on the fact that most dems I know have become quite lethargic this election year as opposed to last. I don't have real facts, just anecdotes :)
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Also we would need to factor in the fact that there have been 4 years since the last election. That's 4 years of young men and women who will have the ability to cast their first vote this year. Ages ranged from 18-21 or 22.

The breakdown for this group is hard to ascertain, but we know that a greater share of youngsters tend to vote Democratic. Youngsters are more and more liberal, media-savvy, and interested in Politics. We also know that for the last 20 or so years, the big cities have seen a huge increase in youth born, and more and more youth throughout the US are minorities.

That would be a positive wildcard for Dem turnout.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Not to Diablos this thread up any more but my brother just found out the estimated time for restoration of power in his central Jersey neighborhood is next Friday. That fucking sucks if that goes for much of the affected areas.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Cooter said:
I want to talk turnout and current poll info. Most of the polls are assuming 08' dem intensity and some are predicting even greater turnout. Early vote totals show decreased dem numbers and increased rep numbers. Add to that most polls show Romney leading Ind anywhere from 5 to 20 points. My question is do most here believe 12' turnout will mirror 08's record dem turnout and if so what is this assumption based on?
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Data.

tnr said:
One common complaint in the current conservative fusillade is that many 2012 polls are using the “2008 turnout model.” Karl Rove, for instance, alleges that the pollsters are weighting their surveys to reflect the partisan and racial composition of the 2008 electorate–when Democrats outnumbered their Republican counterparts by 7 points on election day. Conservative critics think the GOP’s enthusiasm to oust President Obama means that differential will be a lot smaller this year. That might be valid, but the implication that polls are rigged to reflect the 2008 electorate is outright misleading: most of this year’s polls don’t use “the 2008 turnout model.”

In fact, the “2008 turnout model” critique is so far off base that responding to it simply entails explaining how polls work.

Most pollsters don’t weight their polls to match a preconceived electorate. Instead, they take a demographically representative sample based on actual figures from the US census and then let respondents speak for themselves about whether they’re voting for Obama or Romney. For illustrative purposes, consider the Bloomberg/Selzer poll. They started by taking a sample of all American adults, weighted to match the demographics of all adults in the US census, like, race, education, and marital status. To produce a likely voter sample, they then would have excluded adults who weren’t registered to vote and then asked a series of questions to help determine who was likely to vote....

We don’t need pollsters to tell us that Obama would lose if the electorate looks like 2010, nor do we need them to tell us that Obama would win if the electorate looked like 2008. What we need—and what we have—are pollsters with methods that allow us to get a decent grasp on what’s going to happen on Election Day. Pollsters are not sooth-sayers who correctly guess the composition of the electorate every four years; they take demographically representative samples of adults and let the sample speak for itself. That’s how polls using the same methodology managed to show Bush winning in 2004, Obama winning big in 2008, and a GOP takeover in 2010. It’s how Ann Selzer managed to show Obama winning the Iowa Caucus’ in 2008, even though there wasn’t any comparable Caucus to mirror as a “turnout model.” None was necessary.
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http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107778/the-polls-dont-use-2008-turnout-model
 
D

Dr. Pangloss

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It's worth noting Silver got one state wrong in 2008, but it was one of the closest states. This time there are multiple close states meaning he could be wrong more than a few times on Tuesday. So I wouldn't put his accuracy at 49/50, I'd put it around 1/2 (he got NC right, Indiana wrong) in terms of close states.
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You obviously haven't taken a statistic course. Probability doesn't work like that. For example, flipping a coin 10 times does not mean you have a probability of getting heads 5 times at 50%. You need to take a combination of the event happening (10 choose 5) and divided that by 2^10. The probability of getting exactly 5 heads is actually 24.6%. A better estimation of Silver's skill would be using some error rate formula. Or look at the odds of getting all the battleground states right (hint: this is like the coin exercise because you can only have McCain (tails) or Obama (heads) win).
 
E

electricpirate

Member
Cooter said:
I want to talk turnout and current poll info. Most of the polls are assuming 08' dem intensity and some are predicting even greater turnout. Early vote totals show decreased dem numbers and increased rep numbers. Add to that most polls show Romney leading Ind anywhere from 5 to 20 points. My question is do most here believe 12' turnout will mirror 08's record dem turnout and if so what is this assumption based on?
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I'm not sure what you mean by "Assuming" here. Most polls (sans rasmussen) aren't adjusting their numbers based on party ID. When PPP shows a +9 for Dem party ID advantage, it's because in their random sample, they got +9 dems. Similarly for gallup, when they get +1 R advantage, they show +1 R. Is the assumption that more repubs are just not answering or being missed in the calls?

Are you complaining that Likely Voter screens aren't filtering enough dems, or that polls are purposefully polling more dems?

Either way, here's some polls on party ID to demonstrate that a gap persists, http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-party-identification
 
L

LegendofJoe

Member
worldrunover said:
Obama, so according to CNN... no one knows, 269-269 CHAOS TO ENSUE.
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lol, I decided to swear off CNN for good last night after their laughable analysis of the correlation between areas that had the most people without electricity due to Sandy and Democratic turnout in 08 (I think?). Basically, they were suggesting that Pennsylvania was in play for Romney because of this. All the while completely ignoring the fact that urban areas lean democrat and, derp, also have more people so of course they have more people without elecrticity. I was like "damn, why in the hell do I watch this shit?" I couldn't come up with an answer so no more CNN for me.
 
H

Hellsing321

Member
Cooter said:
State polls in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia have a 5+>dem margin when there is no evidence to suggest that.
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Credible pollsters (Read not Rassmussen) don't go looking for the right number of Dem and Rep respondents so that Dems make up X% of their sample and Reps make up Y%. They simply ask people they call which party they are affiliated with.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
What Hellsing said. You don't put your thumb on the scale, you just report the party IDs as you find them which should average out accurately enough over time. If the poll averages are +5 Dem, guess what?
 
E

explodet

Member
Rocket Scientist said:
That sounds cool. I wonder if it'll be streamed or available on the international version of CC. Guessing not though.
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http://comedycentral.tumblr.com/post/34759404714/no-matter-where-you-are-tuesday-night-chances-are
And for the first time ever, both show will stream live on comedycentral.com, iOS and Android enabled devices, Xbox consoles and through The Daily Show Headlines App.
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You might have to get around the regional restrictions though.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Just saw Romney's Chavez ad...what the fuck. It's worth noting that if Romney loses...he's finished. Sure he'll live a nice rich life with his great family, but his political career will be completely over. Not just in terms of no more campaigns, but I doubt the GOP would even invite him to the RNC in four years. McCain is only tolerated because he's a war hero. Hell, even McCain got most of his 2008 primary opponents to vigorously campaign for him; where are Romney's opponents? The knives will come out very quickly if he loses

gcubed said:
that explains so much PD... SO MUCH
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I'll trade you my coach (Jim Schwartz) for Reid any day of the week btw
 
C

Clevinger

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Just saw Romney's Chavez ad...what the fuck. It's worth noting that if Romney loses...he's finished. Sure he'll live a nice rich life with his great family, but his political career will be completely over. Not just in terms of no more campaigns, but I doubt the GOP would even invite him to the RNC in four years. McCain is only tolerated because he's a war hero. Hell, even McCain got most of his 2008 primary opponents to vigorously campaign for him; where as Romney's opponents?
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I don't think he cares. Politics was only a tool to get him elected president. I doubt he gives two shits about the party, or any of the issues, or anything like that. He'll never look back at politics after his dream is over.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Clevinger said:
I don't think he cares. Politics was only a tool to get him elected president. I doubt he gives two shits about the party, or any of the issues, or anything like that. He'll never look back at politics after his dream is over.
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At the same time I do think the humiliation will get to him. He clearly wants to be loved, but even his supporters seem to only be there because of his qualifications. I got the impression many in McCain's staff would have followed him to the gates of hell; some literally did in fact (his Vietnam buddies). Obama inspires loyalty and admiration amongst his staff.

I get the impression that Romney believes the presidency is entitled to him, and has been working toward that goal for decades. Likewise his wife believes the same, perhaps even moreso than him.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I get the impression that Romney believes the presidency is entitled to him, and has been working toward that goal for decades. Likewise his wife believes the same, perhaps even moreso than him.
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I get this impression too. I have this nasty fantasy of Romney going all Handsome Jack on his staffers (verbally, not actually scooping their eyeballs out or anything) once he loses out of sheer entitlement rage.
 
D

Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
Y2Kev said:
I'm surprised why we've seen a sudden boost in Republicans here over the last few days. Must be the Romney surge.
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There's not many situations where I feel my input is worth a damn, to be honest. I just let it flow.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Nate Silver's apparently goading Morning Joe via Twitter..

Nate Silver
✔
@fivethirtyeight
.@JoeNBC: If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?
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Then, Scarborough replied:
"Why don't we both agree to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross right now? Americans need our help now."

Nate's response to this:
"Better idea: Let's bet $2,000."

...

Should be entertaining to see how this turns out, haha!
 
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