Hobbestetrician
Member
But only if Obama wins.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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It's funny that people scoff at more Dems in polls but don't see any relation to that and Romney winning "Independents" by such a huge margin in the same polls.
Even in this thread, people voting Romney are spoiler-tagging it like they're ashamed. A lot of Republicans just don't self-identify because of the nutjobs in their party!
Even in this thread, people voting Romney are spoiler-tagging it like they're ashamed. A lot of Republicans just don't self-identify because of the nutjobs in their party!
Nate on Real-Time with Maher, what an awkward but at the same time cool dude. and F' Joe (I-know-that-I-should-stop-pretending-Republicans-have-sane-ideas) Scarborough.
lulz
"Stories of corruption, abound."
He's got nothing on Bloomberg.
speculawyer
Member
I'd like to believe this but there is no accountability anymore. Only celebrity. Bill Kristol said there was nothing to worry about with any Sunny/Shiia in violence in Iraq before as we invaded Iraq. That completely wrong statement is was related to the deaths of tens of thousands, a long protracted war, hundreds of billions of dollars poured down the drain.
Yet people still go to him like he is some expert on foreign policy. Ryan my never become the GOP nominee for President but his career is by no means over.
I want to talk a little about this, because while I've made similar posts in the last few days, they've been overlooked.
Basically what the unskewed poll guys are saying is that the true proportion of Democrats in the voting population is smaller than the sample proportions that are showing up in the polls.
Individual polls will fail to capture the true proportion of Democrats all the time. However, when you compile the aggregate of a sufficient number of polls and graph it, you end up with a normally-distributed histogram whose mode should be very close to the true population proportion.
I found this article interesting:
http://storify.com/DigitalFirst/the-election-is-over/embed?header=false&border=false
Maybe you guys (from both sides) should temper your premature partying a bit
The first point in that article is amazing, since the first two links are to somebody saying the opposite of what it claims. Gelman says that Silver is correct but also that it's not a lock, which we knew. Dickinson specifically says that polls near Election Day do have predictive power -- that article is from June. The other two links are to a Hill post about Morning Joe and...a Politico post about Morning Joe.
a vegas guy would never pass up a straight up bet on 4:1 odds
Man, if only there was some way to confirm how polls are done instead of just speculating about them!
They should be damn ashamed. They're enablers.
Damn, you're good.
For the record, your original claim, Cooter, was that the polls are "assuming an 08 turnout." That's not an opinion, that's a factual assertion -- one that is unquestionably wrong and lamentably ignorant of how polls are actually done.
If you now want to change your position and say that all the state polls are oversampling Democrats and THAT's why the turnout looks wrong, that's fine. You are well in line with Dean Chambers and the official statement of the Romney campaign.
It's a pretty stupid argument, though.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
3-4 points is historically an enormous advantage. Nate ran a study and found that 3.5 points in the polls have been wrong exactly once.
D
Deleted member 47027
Unconfirmed Member
If I was ashamed I wouldn't have even mentioned it.
Sirpopopop
Member
Bleh
Not so far no, but yesterday he was saying the storm only hit the 1%ers.
It's just his turn.
Troll confirmed.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Whoa whoa whoa when did we get our very own unskewer?
Again, its just cherry picking data that's already been professionally sorted to account for these kind of problems.
Whoa whoa whoa when did we get our very own unskewer?
It's Cooter...
Learn2read
Member
Compared to most of Limbaugh's ass hurricanes I bet it's still pretty small
Yeah, I'm sure it's a "glitch". Please.
What a bunch of shit. If anyone's going to steal this election it's the GOP.
wtf
You mean Black Mamba? He's been here a while.
Nope. Watch, they'll pretend like they never doubted him or an Obama win. They'll avoid talking about him as much as they can.
I wasn't trying to single you out and you're not the only one who's done that recently. I love that more conservatives are posting as we near the end of this thing.
Not on twitter, they won't. This has become a " thing" on there
djplaeskool
Member
This is so damn revealing.
"Ignore the man who uses stats to say that this state is Obama's. We can still win this! Please show-up to the polls! Did we mention that he's effete and liberal and gay?"
Also, stolen from DU:
The Librarian
Banned
I'd like to see that.
I wonder: Why good does Rasmussen serve the GOP? It helps push their agenda into making the case that they're ahead, but it also convinces many people that their candidates have a fighting chance when they really don't. How is that healthy? What good does that do for the GOP?
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
If this doesn't confirm that the unified GOP poll-denial is an official GOTV strategy and not an actual belief, I don't know what does.
Bel Marduk
Banned
Voted today off a road named Ronald Reagan Pkwy in Davenport, FL (a repub leaning area) and saw a great diversity of people there. Lots of hispanic and black voters. Mostly women and about half the people there looked to be in their twenties or thirties.. this seems to be consistent with what others are seeing from around Florida, so I wouldn't count it out for Obama just yet.
+1 Obama
+1 Nelson
+1 Alan fucking Grayson (!!)
+1 Obama
+1 Nelson
+1 Alan fucking Grayson (!!)
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Again, its GOTV for the base. They want apathetic voters to think they have a chance - any forecast saying they are losing is going to be detrimental to their turnout.
Hellsing321
Member
What good does drawing more attention to him do? Most people don't know who the fuck he is but they might go look him up now and see his track record.
That's what humans call a joke, pigeon.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Somewhat embarrassingly, I could tell that second quote was Josh Marshall just from the style. I need to cut down on the back-pats.
Father_Brain
Banned
about what?
Yeselson joked about the GOP making a negative Nate Silver ad.
Rocket Scientist
Member
There is no SuperPAC ad against Nate guys, calm down.
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