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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Is the Prince going to be removed from his post after the Republicans fail to win the white house and the senate in what should be an obvious pounding year?
 
D

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
Bulbo Urethral Baggins said:
Unemployment rate increases slightly and the number of unemployed Americans stays the same at 12.3 million, and you guys are spinning it as good news for Obama. Talk about desperation....
Told y'all it would go up. God, it's not easy being right all the time.
Click to expand...

So losing 700,000 jobs a month is better than gaining hundreds of thousands of jobs a month?

This what republicans come across to me:

DERP, I made a mess! Why aren't you cleaning fast enough?
 
T

Tim-E

Member
The .1% uptick literally does not matter. The unemployment rate itself hasn't impacted anything all year, it's not going to now.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Is the Prince going to be removed from his post after the Republicans fail to win the white house and the senate in what should be an obvious pounding year?
Click to expand...

He will be the second person thrown under the bus after Romney, and I couldn't be happier about it
 
D

DasRaven

Member
Tim-E said:
The .1% uptick literally does not matter. The unemployment rate itself hasn't impacted anything all year, it's not going to now.
Click to expand...

Especially when you consider that the confidence interval, or MoE if you wish, is .2%.
So, if upward revisions are as strong as they have been for the last few months, we could actually be at 7.7% right now.
That would align with what Gallup observed, a 7.9>7.0 drop in their survey. That said, we could also be at 8.1% and slowing thanks to Sandy impacts.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
New England College New Hampshire poll:

49.5% Obama
44.4% Romney

The margin of error is 3.7%. The President gained slightly from last week’s NEC poll and Mr. Romney dropped a point, as the number of undecided voters begins to decline.

“The gender gap exists with President Obama maintaining a strong lead among women; while men have a more competitive split between the two candidates,” explains Dr. Ben Tafoya, director of the Polling Center in NEC’s Center for Civic Engagement. “If Governor Romney is going to close the gap on the President he will need to perform significantly better among women.”

The President has strong support from Democrats leads among Independents; while Governor Romney has strong support among Republicans. Mr. Obama holds 95% percent support among Democrats; Mr. Romney holds 89% support among Republicans. In the race for Independent voters in New Hampshire, the President has a 49%-39% edge.
Click to expand...

http://www.nec.edu/news/new-poll-gives-president-obama-some-daylight-in-new-hampshire
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Officerrob said:
He will be the second person thrown under the bus after Romney, and I couldn't be happier about it
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Well I mean Michael Steele was sacrificed after the Republicans wiped the Dems off the map in 2010 so maybe they are just into white guys.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
seems so

http://updates.deadspin.com/post/34780905169/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being

In case you haven’t been hanging around the benighted corners of the political internet lately, there’s an idiotic backlash afoot against Nate Silver, the proprietor of the FiveThirtyEight blog who made his name as one of the sharpest baseball analysts around.

With the election just a few days away, analysis based on state poll aggregation—Silver’s included—suggests that Barack Obama is a heavy favorite against Mitt Romney. The president holds a slight but strong lead in key electoral states. This doesn’t sit well with many political pundits, who insist that the outcome is anyone’s guess and headed down to the wire. Many of these people have directed their anger toward Silver, whose New York Times-hosted blog has predicted a strong probability of an Obama victory since June. They insist he is biased or sloppy in his methodology, even though they seem unaware of how he makes his predictions and of statistical analysis in general. They say—and I’m not kidding—he’s too gay for this sort of work.

In retrospect, we should’ve seen it coming. It was only a matter of time before the war on expertise spilled over into the cells of Nate Silver’s spreadsheets. In fact, in some ways it had already. Turns out that nothing could have prepared Silver better for the slings and arrows of a surly and willfully obtuse pundit class than working on the fringes of sportswriting over the past decade.
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rest at link..
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
The RNC is in charge of Romney's ground game. If it is close because Obama's voters didn't turn out as much as expected, but Obama still wins, they'll have Rinse Priapus' head on a pike.

NH poll is 1000+ using IVR on landlines and cell phones. Seems like a reasonable data point and matches what you'd intuitively expect out of an close race with respect to PV.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
DasRaven said:
Especially when you consider that the confidence interval, or MoE if you wish, is .2%.
So, if upward revisions are as strong as they have been for the last few months, we could actually be at 7.7% right now.
That would align with what Gallup observed, a 7.9>7.0 drop in their survey. That said, we could also be at 8.1% and slowing thanks to Sandy impacts.
Click to expand...
Is there any evidence that major weather events matter in the long run, once you account for rebuilding and reconstruction?
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Fragamemnon said:
The RNC is in charge of Romney's ground game. If it is close because Obama's voters didn't turn out as much as expected, but Obama still wins, they'll have Rinse Priapus' head on a pike.
Click to expand...

Is there any reason to believe models are overstating Democratic turnout/enthusiasm at this point? I thought all models had been adjusted to account for Obummer's crushing first term depression.
 
H

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
Catching up from overnight...

Fragamemnon said:
Dropping the Minecraft creeper meme on the grey lady op-ed pages.
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That's a mafioso phrase, it's way way older than Minecraft.
You have to write it "Sssssshame" for it to be a Creeper, anyway.

speculawyer said:
I like Nate but Sam Wang has really been winning my heart lately. He's got a lot of snark and attitude.
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I think Nate's recent snark streak is slightly because of Sam. (Not that anti-data idiocy doesn't make it very, very easy to throw snark around.) I think Nate sees a future of data-driven punditry, and he and Sam are the two ground-floor forces that will mold that future (as unskewedpolls is bollocks-flavored bollocks). So there's an element of competition between the two. And when you're in the lead like Nate is, your course of action is to watch your competition and sort of adopt their distinguishing traits- not all the way, you don't want to lose your own character, but just enough that your competition doesn't look different enough to warrant a switch. You then maintain the inertia of the top position.

Though personally, I'd rather see the two work together and combine their models, to try and get the most accurate probabilities possible. In the interest of science and all that. Plus it'd stifle the punditry even further to have only one authoritative interpretation of the data, rather than two that can be debated endlessly and needlessly. So instead of FiveThirtyEight and Princeton Electoral, maybe someday we'd have the Silver-Wang Election Probability Model.



....I'm gonna go with that name.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Incognito said:
seems so

http://updates.deadspin.com/post/34780905169/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being



rest at link..
Click to expand...

Really good article. Thanks. I lol'd at this:

Both the Romney and Obama camps are happy to play into the toss-up narrative, as Obama needs his presumed majority to actually go to the polls on election day, and Romney wants to give his base confidence and hope. It’s the rare thing that everyone can agree on this year. (That and coal. Everybody fucking loves coal.)
Click to expand...
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
Interesting predictions last month by Paul Abrams re: Nov. 2 jobs report and election probabilities:

Here is how the election will go, depending on the November 2 report:

1. >8.4 percent Comfortable Romney and Republican victory
2. 8.2-8.3 percent Close Romney and Republican victory.
3. 8.1 percent Nail-biter. Probably Romney, Republican House, Uncertain Senate
4. 8 percent Nail-biter. Probably Obama, Republican House, Uncertain Senate
5. 7.9 percent Close Obama, Republican House, Democratic Senate
6. 7.7-7.8 percent Comfortable Obama, Uncertain House, Democratic Senate
7. 7.6 percent Major Obama Victory, Democratic House, Solid Democratic Senate
8. < 7.5 percent Blowout for Obama and Democrats
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-abrams/nov-2-jobs-report-election_b_1975919.html
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Both the Romney and Obama camps are happy to play into the toss-up narrative, as Obama needs his presumed majority to actually go to the polls on election day, and Romney wants to give his base confidence and hope. It&#8217;s the rare thing that everyone can agree on this year. (That and coal. Everybody fucking loves coal.)
Click to expand...

As someone who works for an electric utility, the anti-coal messaging is largely bullshit.

The reason the coal industry is hurting is because of cheap natural gas. Utilities that didn't upgrade their plants with sulfur-dioxide scrubbers just chose to shut them down and switch to natural gas.

The utility I work for did install the environmental controls on our coal plants and are in full compliance with EPA. I disagree with some of the Obama EPA's energy policies, but I'm not a single issue voter, unlike a large number of people in the industry.
 
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