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[ErasureAcer]

CO 50 - 46 O
MI 52 - 46 O
MN 53 - 44 O
ME 55 - 42 O

Thanks. Was out watching Wreck-It Ralph.

 

[gcubed]

Boredom.

you need a new hobby

 

[Beer Monkey]

And yet a lot came from Cuyahoga County, how convenient.

Suppressing 33k votes and having it discovered before the election means you fail at suppressing votes.

 

[The Librarian]

you need a new hobby

Nah, I'm busy enough. I should be writing a paper at the moment, anyway.

 

[Black Republican]

Cheebs, please forgive me! I did not mean to deceive. I am sorry, O Wise One. Let me post the current RCP average and compare:

Oh... 2.4 to 1.9. Huh. Wait. Is that an increase in the margin? An increase in Obama's favor?

Oh.

Oh...

from now on, every Ohio poll needs to be weighted down to Jon Husted levels thank you very much.

 

[Angry Grimace]

We'll see. A computer "glitch" already threw out 33k absentee ballots, won't take much more to guarantee a Romney win

This is just outright wrong; they sent the ballots, they just did it later than they were supposed to, the error was corrected over a week ago.

Even assuming you were correct, absentee ballots aren't 100% Obama ballots.

 

[HylianTom]

Okay.. I've been ice-veined throughout this whole thing, and we're so damn close.

But here I am watching the hurricane telethon, quietly hoping at the TV: "please, ladies and gents.. don't say anything political. This is a done deal!"

 

[gcubed]

This is just outright wrong; they sent the ballots, they just did it later than they were supposed to, the error was correct over a week ago.

Even assuming you were correct, absentee ballots aren't 100% Obama ballots.

Cuyahoga... CUYAHOGA

 

[PhoenixDark]

This is just outright wrong; they sent the ballots, they just did it later than they were supposed to, the error was correct over a week ago.

Even assuming you were correct, absentee ballots aren't 100% Obama ballots.

I'd say ballots from Cuyahoga County are probably 70% Obama, based on last year's results

 

[Angry Grimace]

I'd say ballots from Cuyahoga County are probably 70% Obama, based on last year's results

Those ballots were already sent out like a week ago.

Jon Husted doesn't have the ability to throw 33,000 votes without spending his life in a federal penitentiary. Its too many. Use your common sense.

 

[Y2Kev]

What do you even do at a rally? Why does anyone go?

 

[The Chosen One]

It's crazy how Obama has an ever so slight lead in Florida when 10 days ago the state looked almost completely lost. It would be nice to have another recent poll from North Carolina.

With Obama tied or leading in every single swing state with just a few days left, it's safe to say this election is over. We're just riding on the glide path to the finish line. The ground game for Obama is strong enough that I don't see Romney being able to flip a ton of close states. Maybe one or two, but not enough to affect the overall outcome.

Even with Ohio and Wisconsin tightening up, every other swing state is moving in Obama's direction. That's a national trend and Romney isn't going to be able to stop that over the weekend.

Congratulations on reelection Barrack Hussein Obama.

Maybe if Romney didn't apply the principle of Polygamy to his political views, he might would have had a better chance.

 

[Godslay]

What do you even do at a rally? Why does anyone go?

I just like to yell USA at the top of my lungs, that's why I go.

 

[Beer Monkey]

What do you even do at a rally? Why does anyone go?

You go for the free Kid Rock concert.

Seriously people, there are literally hundreds of thousands of people that voted for McCain within 30 minutes of this rally in SW Ohio. And the state still went for Obama. Chill the fuck out.

 

[BobTheFork]

What do you even do at a rally? Why does anyone go?

To affirm their beliefs with other people. The same reason political radio exists.

 

[Angry Grimace]

What do you even do at a rally? Why does anyone go?

Well, a Romney rally? Arrange gun sales and trades.

 

[C.Dark.DN]

I hope we know the 6th.

I don't want some voting machine shit or something to drag out the results for a month or so like 2004. (2008 also?)

 

[Beer Monkey]

Well, a Romney rally? Arrange gun sales and trades.

I guarantee you if Tim McVeigh were still here he'd be at a Romney rally this fall.

 

[el retorno]

What do you even do at a rally? Why does anyone go?

I saw Obama in 2008 I just wanted to say I'd seen them both. It was really boring and nothing really that interesting besides the fact that It made me feel awesome that so many people supported the same man I did.

I hope we know the 6th.

I don't want some voting machine shit or something to drag out the results for a month or so like 2008.

We'll know on the 6th. It might not be "official" but we'll know

 

[Angry Grimace]

I hope we know the 6th.

I don't want some voting machine shit or something to drag out the results for a month like 2008.

I'm hoping Nate's probabilities actually hold up and make Virginia will just go blue, at which point practically nothing else will matter.

 

[bananas]

Virginia now leaning Obama on Sam Wang's map. NC and FL are tossups.

Obama leads slightly with 1% in VA,
Obama has narrow lead of 0.5% in FL,
Romney has narrow lead of 0.5% in NC.

 

[BobTheFork]

I hope we know the 6th.

I don't want some voting machine shit or something to drag out the results for a month like 2008.

I didn't even realize it was dragged out last time. They called it for Obama and that was it IMO.
Also, of course there will be SOME reason to try and drag it out, some people have too much emotionally invested.

edit: Wow, where did they find an Apple IIe to make that map on?

 

[gcubed]

if they had free beer i'd go

 

[C.Dark.DN]

I didn't even realize it was dragged out last time. They called it for Obama and that was it IMO.
Also, of course there will be SOME reason to try and drag it out, some people have too much emotionally invested.

edit: Wow, where did they find an Apple IIe to make that map on?

Oh shit I meant 2004 for Bush, I'm not sure if 2008 was dragged out or not.

 

[Krauser Kat]

Anyone post this yet? Great read.
http://updates.deadspin.com/post/34780905169/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being

 

[HylianTom]

The last rally I got to go to was a Dean rally in Nov 2003, in Austin, TX. The energy there was incredible.
(edit: got my day wrong)(it was pre-scream!)

 

[BobTheFork]

Oh shit I meant 2004 for Bush, I'm not sure if 2008 was dragged out or not.

Ok that makes more sense. As I said there are some people who are staking their sanity on this election. Regardless of what happen Tuesday night, someone is going to try and call foul.

 

[littleworm]

I wish there where some more NC polls, it's shaping up to be a close one.

 

[bananas]

Oh shit I meant 2004 for Bush, I'm not sure if 2008 was dragged out or not.

Bush won about 2am the night of the election. It was pretty quick.

You're thinking of 2000. Took one and a half months before the Supreme Court made their ruling.

 

[HylianTom]

Bush won in the am hours the next day. It was pretty quick.

You're think of 2000. Took one and a half months before the Supreme Court made their ruling.

Yup. Here's the 2004 timeline:
http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php

I'm thinking that this year's times will be closer to 2004 than 2008. The states' margins will be pretty similar. If we know by midnight, ET, I'll be happy.

 

[Paches]

Is this PD thing about Romney getting credit for 35k Obama votes real or did he just make that up?

 

[C.Dark.DN]

Bush won about 2am the night of the election. It was pretty quick.

You're thinking of 2000. Took one and a half months before the Supreme Court made their ruling.

Yeah, 2000. Goddamn I'm out of it.

 

[bananas]

According to election.princeton.edu:

NV - Obama +3%
NH - Obama +3%
OH - Obama +3%
IA - Obama +4%
CO - Obama +2%
VA - Obama +1%
WI - Obama +5%
PA - Obama +5%
FL - Obama +0.5%
MI - Obama +6%
NC - Romney +0.5%
MN - Obama +7%

 

[Angry Grimace]

Is this PD thing about Romney getting credit for 35k Obama votes real or did he just make that up?

He's trolling to try and scare people because he either wants to keep his hopes down or he wants to scare people who don't religiously follow polling data. What he's saying is that the Secretary of State in OH "rejected" a bunch of absentee ballots last week, but in reality they sent them, they just sent them like a week later than the other ones.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/01/glitch-held-up-absentee-ballots.html

Husted is not going to throw 33K ballots out. That's enough to get him removed from office and arrested for election fraud.

 

[gcubed]

Is this PD thing about Romney getting credit for 35k Obama votes real or did he just make that up?

its half pants on fire. There was an error, it was rectified. It was 33k votes, not for a specific person

 

[ivysaur12]

According to election.princeton.edu:

NV Obama +3%
NH Obama +3%
OH Obama +3%
IA Obama +4%
CO Obama +2%
VA Obama +1%
WI Obama +5%
PA Obama +5%
FL Obama +0.5%
MI Obama +6%
NC Romney +0.5%
MN Obama +7%

So, tied.

 

[Paches]

He's trolling to try and scare people because he either wants to keep his hopes down or he wants to scare people who don't religiously follow polling data. What he's saying is that the Secretary of State in OH "rejected" a bunch of absentee ballots last week, but in reality they sent them, they just sent them like a week later than the other ones.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/01/glitch-held-up-absentee-ballots.html

Husted is not going to throw 33K ballots out. That's enough to get him removed from office and arrested for election fraud.

Ah, okay. So Obama is going to lose Ohio now, got it.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Ah, okay. So Obama is going to lose Ohio now, got it.

Basically, bad news for Obama

 

[Thagomizer]

My best-case Senate prediction:

My actual prediction:

I know this is kinda anal and he mostly caucuses with Dems anyway, but there is no fucking way King loses in Maine, and especially not to Dill.

 

[Marvie_3]

Ah, okay. So Obama is going to lose Ohio now, got it.

Now? Obama was always going to lose Ohio.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Now? Obama was always going to lose Ohio.

I have Romney actually getting Ohio's electoral votes twice.

 

[ivysaur12]

@ppppolls

Elizabeth Warren is likely to be the next Senator from Massachusetts. Our final poll finds her leading Scott Brown 52-46

.

 

[HylianTom]

I have Romney actually getting Ohio's electoral votes twice.

Just goes to show how powerful Husted really is.
(and BTW - I've always adored your avatar)

 

[Hawkian]

FL - Obama +0.5%

can't take this

I'm going to help out tomorrow and election day at least. taking off work if I can.

 

[Bowdz]

@ppppolls

Elizabeth Warren is likely to be the next Senator from Massachusetts. Our final poll finds her leading Scott Brown 52-46

.

 

[gcubed]

Just goes to show how powerful Husted really is.
(and BTW - I've always adored your avatar)

yup, Husted actually causes negative votes in Ohio for Obama, Romney wins 4,123,257 to -2,143,109, an over 6 million vote gap.

In all seriousness. PD as GAF's shittiest prognosticator continues unimpeded with Warren likely winning MA as well

 

[Randolph Freelander]

(and BTW - I've always adored your avatar)

Bill McNeal was a great man and a true patriot. Phil Hartman wasn't all that bad, either.

 

[el retorno]

.

Awesome news.

 

[jbug617]

.

would explain the ad blitz for Scott Brown this week.

 

[kingkitty]

Obama has a comfortable win ahead. I'm so comfortable.